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ACC Panic Room: After 3rd straight loss, is it time to reset expectations for UNC hoops?
Lauren Brownlow and Joe Ovies discuss the last ACC-B1G Challenge, which featured an overall win for the conference and a bunch of questions for North Carolina
Welcome to the A. C. C. Panic room alongside Lauren Brownlow. I'm cov is A. C. C. Big 10 Challenge. The last one ever. Lauren thanks to television deals. We're gonna get the A. C. C. Sec challenge next year. But the final sec Big 10 challenge goes the A. C. C. S way go A. C. C. But nobody's really talking about the league as a whole right now. They're kind of fixated on north Carolina who started the year number one in the Ap top 25 they've lost three straight coming off the Phil knight invitational. And then now this loss to indiana, they're not the first ap top 25 team to start out a year, number one and then lose three straight Duke did this not that long ago, michigan michigan michigan state has done that. So it's not it's not a new thing but that's not going to stop people from freaking out about what's going on with the tar heels right now. So what's what the hell is bothering them right now? It's weird right? Because like as with most things and not to be like this isn't to get out of having a take on this. But as with most things, I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle right? Like let's be honest. Um I don't I think last year was far too large of a sample size to just throw it in the garbage. Like I know that there's people that want to do that and say they just got hot and it's like well they did win like I think it was 17 of their last 21 games. I don't know that we could just say that that meant they just got hot. Now can you say they ran through the tournament cause they just got, they got extra hot like with the duke. I don't know. Maybe you could say that, but like I don't think we can just throw all of that in the trash. It's also the context, there is the context of who they beat right? It was the losses that stuck out more than the winds as you said, they won what, 17 of their, you know, 17 out of close things out. But it was those losses that had people raising an eyebrow there beating teams, they should be at the bottom, but they were a bubble team. You can't forget that they were a bubble team last year even when they closed out the season of the year. Like with the 17 of the last 21 that includes the term that includes when they kind of turned it around at the end of A CC play and kind of chilled out a little bit. I think they had like the one head scratcher in that stretch. But that was it. Whereas in the beginning of the season they were getting like, I mean, I think they had like multiple blowout losses. So I was going to say like comparatively the beginning of this season has not gone as poorly as last actually, I think that the problem is, and this is understandable from Carolina fans point of view is like, okay, well why does this look like the beginning of last year when we saw what this team was capable of in March, we saw the improvements that RJ Davis and Caleb Lovin made. Why does this team play like they just met to, you know what I mean? And they literally do play like that at times, they play one on one ball, they're not getting assists, you know, I guess you could say they're better defensively than last year. I have no idea. Well brady manic is not out there playing defense. Nance is a better defender than brady manic. You know, indiana couldn't get whatever it wanted most of what they got was off of Carolina's bad offense. That's I think the cause for concern is like Carolina's bad offense, bad shots, bad turnovers are leave two easy points for their opponents. And that's the thing when you have bad offense, like you just can't get much else off of that so much. I so ball not enough ball movement. Ball movement was what got them to the national title game last year and we're not seeing that they're like setting program lows and assist, seemingly everyone had five in the loss to indiana. Yeah. And they had like they had like a one of the like record lows earlier this year, I remember in kind of one of those uglier wins and so it's not complicated, but then it seems complicated because you look at them and you're like, why are you like this? Yeah, so I I do think that if we're, if we're going to go through the process of setting proper context to what's going on with the tar heels right now in these three straight losses, it has to be said that coming off of a trip from Portland then going to indiana while Armando Bacot seems to be playing through some sort of ankle pain and as we come to find out last night some sort of shoulder issue that even Davis. Yeah, and hubert Davis was kind of like, yeah, that's that's a new thing, I mean we're gonna have to find out about that, right? So that one's easy to explain, it's fairly obvious that Armando Bacot is not 100%. And while you do commend him for going out there being a gamer, you also wonder a man maybe maybe take a step back to rest. It's just november basketball, like don't further hurt yourself at the expense of some november basketball against the A. C. C Big 10 challenge, right? But that's that's that's Armando like again credit to him for going out there and um and trying to trying to power through it. So I think that context absolutely matters, like for instance, Jon Scheyer after the win against Ohio state last night talked about a similar situation, you know, they had been in the Phil Knight invitational. They were in Portland. Oh, by the way, Carolina. I didn't even mention the four overtimes. It's it's not just they were in Portland, they were in a four overtime game against Alabama. Like that's really important. While we're setting this context, Jon Scheyer talked about the same thing to where he's like, look, they didn't give monday off so they didn't really have time to prepare for what's going on for Ohio State. Now that's opportunities to learn because the N. C. Double A tournament, you're not going to have a lot of time to prepare for the next team. But clearly it affected a lot of people that were in that Phil Knight invitational coming back to the East coast. I think that I think that context matters as far as Caleb love and RJ Davis to your point. These were the guys that we saw last year turned it around. It's also fair to say that when they turned it around when they went into the whole Iron Five concept that gets you into a rhythm. We're not in that situation. Now this is back in the grind of the regular season. They're still trying to figure out what the rotation is going to be. I mean they've given demarco done sometime he's been a good defender. Seth trimble as well has gotten in there getting more minutes, puff, johnson is kind of working his way back. We haven't seen him contribute the way we kind of did off the bench last year. There's still a lot of, there's some kicks they're working out. But I also get it because a lot of the same flaws we've seen at times earlier in their careers. Both those are the kind of the same ones that are coming up again. And so I think that's where the handling income And I also think too and this is I get why this happens in fan conversations and media conversations is that you want to compare these squads to previous squads? Okay? You want to compare like if this is a national title is pretty important. But I'm sitting here telling you that this is not 1617, this is not the same group. The six 15 17 group was never as discombobulated as last year's group was never was 15 16 team wasn't either as discombobulated as last year. So like there's really no copy there between the two before and after. So. And there's also, and you know, people want to bring up, well, you know, look at the oh nine squad they had, they started conference play o and two with losses to boston college and B. C. Like never bring up the 90 minute right examples to use our later tenure Roy teams that they looked everybody like, I don't know what is it, 1918 or 19 when they end up like one or two seed in the tournament and everybody's like, what's wrong with Carolina in november? They end up just getting it together. I'm not saying they're going to be a one or two seat. Please don't get me wrong. All I'm saying is like, well we will be having a different conversation about them I suspect probably how different, I don't know like, I don't know are they a team that we should assume we'll get back to the final four? I don't think we should ever assume that about almost any team really because it's a hard thing to do, but that's not how Carolina operates and that's why I brought up the context of the other squads and I think this gets back to where I viewed last year differently in context to how we were going to go this year. It, it was an easy thing to make Carolina number one because the last thing you saw is the thing you saw and you just have this expectation that it's going to carry on right. But it has to be discussed and it's fair to wonder how much of last year was a team getting hot at the right time. Like we make this joke about Syracuse all the time because they've done it a bunch of times. We're not used to seeing that with Carolina right? One team has a particular joke or cliche you make about them here in the last time and in the last few years, the other has this history you can point to but we have to understand that the history has to change because it's a different coach and it's also a different era of college basketball where you're you're you're taking in guys like Pete Nance and you just assume well you're just gonna be the next brady manic. Well he's not, he's simply not or the fact that Caleb love, he's just going to continue on where he was last year. Well he's still the same player that was causing Roy Williams to pull out to not pull out his hair but have his hair grow grayer and whiter and hubert Davis even having issues with him last year, We talked about this last year with, we've talked about the whole his whole career, right? You gotta take the good with the bad, there's not a choice but you're going to have to now. What I think they could for sure use is maybe a little more out of R. J. Davis. I don't feel like we've seen him be super aggressive at all Caleb love. It gets here because he takes a lot of the shots. He has the ball in his hands a lot could he pass more? Yeah, but a lot of times it's R. J. Davis initiating the offense and then, you know, kind of going invisible. Like he's not he's not making as many things happened last year as he did either and like we've talked about they're not moving the ball around. I mean when you get the ball stuck in one place and you just try to like have Caleb love chocolate or whoever it is like that it's not gonna work out well for anybody. Teams are double teaming Armando Bacot Carolina is not making them pay well enough. They're not moving the ball well right now when you don't move the ball well you're not going to be a very good team in terms of scoring unless you have a bunch of guys that can score one on one which they don't shout out to bryan barber. Our old friend on the internet also Sharell Mcmillan of inside Carolina. I know they were tweeting about this last night that at this point with Carolina You could it's it's okay to revisit the expectations. It's okay it's okay with this Carolina squad and if you kind of recalibrate like it's okay to put things in context. Last year revisit those things like we did. It's okay to understand that it's still early. I mean it's just December one and a lot of these things can work themselves through like they did last year. You can make that assumption. But I think it's also fair to just go ahead and recalibrate what exactly you expect out of this U. N. C. Team now that we've seen some other squads in the A. C. C. Uh in some action like I think that Virginia based on what I've seen so far based on based on a win at michigan based on what they've done throughout the season. They they have they have offense again. You know they seem to be back to, I'm not saying they're a national title contender because that was a unique group in my opinion. But it looks like Tony Bennett's got those dudes again who's going to be able to score on top of being suffocating and how they play defense in their style. That's going to be a problem in the regular season. When you look at who they've beaten, they have some of the best wins. I mean we're kind of talking about this past weekend like who do you put number one? I mean they're winds were up there with anybody else's including produce. That's the other thing too. Like Jill that said on the air the other day, it's like what we know about Tony Bennett unlike Duke and Carolina where they can get a little loose little loosey goosey with it, Tony. Bennett does not throw away games. He does not he does not at all. So I do think it's it's absolutely not. So I can envision a scenario where Virginia wins. Uh The A. C. C regular season ahead of Duke and Carolina. That shouldn't surprise anybody at this point. Speaking of Duke I was at Cameron indoor stadium last night. Finally get an opportunity to watch Duke in person and my immediate takeaway was john scher has been talking about how they're supposed to be a big team. They absolutely are a big team. Right? Um, and I think Duke, unlike Carolina where you've got all the pieces and they've, they've been here from the jump and you're wondering why things haven't worked out. I do think that with Duke, there's a little bit of grace going because they haven't really had the group that they thought they were gonna have through a variety of injuries. So I think last night we probably saw at Cameron indoor Stadium, uh, the most of what Jon Scheyer expects this team to be, which is a pretty versatile group, a pretty deep group. And I like what I, yes. And I like what I saw last night against Ohio State. Yeah. I mean the thing that I've noticed about this Duke team wins and losses aside really is that they play hard on the defensive end and they really buy in there and that's, you know, it's part of why I worry about them a little less. And the fact that they're like, you know, all brand new and I'm still learning half of their names. Well, it's not even just the new freshmen guys too. It's like, oh, that's right. And it's like the transfers. Right? You gotta like, look it up. Okay. He's from, Okay, right. Like, like, like Ryan Young, Like Ryan Young was my like, wait a minute, Where's this dude from again? Oh that's right. He was at Northwestern and while I sat here I thought to myself that guy looks like he's gonna get overwhelmed. He wasn't, he does exactly what Jon Scheyer wants him to do. Just keep it ugly in the paint, be defensive and we saw that last night. Yeah. No, I mean that's the thing we do because like I know they got blown out and I know they've had some there moments or whatever. I know they have two losses so gasp the horror I guess. Right? Teams two teams right? I mean I think two or three of Carolina's might be too, but either way like it's yeah they'll be fine. I'm not concerned about them either because really it's not the same reasons necessarily as with Carolina but I'm not concerned about them either in terms of who they've lost two and how and yeah that seems to be their identity to me. And it's a good one because you can build off that you can get better offensively. Kind of get more chemistry on that end. But you know, if you build your identity on the defensive end you can make things happen offensively and that's what they've been able to do so far. Meanwhile to wrap up the totality of the A. C. C. Big 10 challenge. I mean look good for Wake to come out with a win. Clemson surprised right? Um I do think that Miami also coming back Cubans never. Yeah. Notre dame did lock it up I was gonna say with Miami Cubans never start on time so they were a little late against Rutgers. Um Regardless it might have been a conflicting game for some people. Yeah maybe some Miami season ticket holders. Yeah that's true. That's true. Especially if they're from Union City. That might be a problem I'm just saying. Yeah that's true. So I do think that so far what we've seen with the A. C. C. Is they clearly have a defined bottom right? Like Syracuse not good florida State not good. Um The worry going forward is once they start getting into conference play which does start up this weekend with boston college and florida State 100% because they've dealt with injuries and suspensions. I'm not saying that what they've done is excusable with that. It's not florida State's gonna skew metrics. They're gonna they're gonna they're gonna beat some people and they're gonna as an F. S. You've been tweeting at me last night. Can't wait to give some teams some quad three and four losses. That's exactly that's exactly three probably before it's all said and done but like they don't have many opportunities left to do that and that's honestly hasn't that been honestly what's played the for like the last I would say five years or so almost is that there are these teams that have rough starts that don't necessarily have as many new pieces florida State does though but still like and they play terribly in nonconference then they get into conference, get it together and then all of a sudden they're handing teams two bad losses that could have otherwise maybe made the tournament field like that's what the A. C. C. Has been doing to itself lately. I'm not going to blame florida state and put them in that umbrella though considering what they're what they're missing that dumb 16 game suspension for that. Yeah. Now the mystery team to me I mean I think we have a defined bottom in the A. C. C. We know who the contenders are gonna be at the top of the league as we discussed earlier to me the mystery team is the one team that didn't play in the Sec Big 10 Challenge was N. C. State. Now there was N. C. State representation in Cameron indoor stadium. There was there was a guy in the stands were in an N. C. State hoodie. I was like alright solidarity right? Uh N. C. State played William and mary. I think Casey Morsell just hit another three in that game. Honestly I do think that N. C. State the State is the mystery team. I don't know what to make of them so far. They did. Um NC State fans have to be thrilled because this is exactly where they are right now playing well. Yeah and no one's talking about them. Why would that Julius hodge special right there. They gotta be they staying south right now. Nobody's talking about them. People are hand wringing about north Carolina. People are wondering when Duke's gonna get going and their state is just quietly, nobody's talking about him. They don't even need to get well. I mean, I'm sure some of them would like to get ranked. I'm not saying it's bad to get ranked, but I'm just saying like there there, this is the dream scenario right now. You should enjoy it. You're just still. And the thing is like there in the whole battle Atlantis thing and um, they played, they played Kansas close. They got a good one over Dayton. So, I mean, that's, that's, that's an important win by the way, frenzy state and it's Jillian and they beat Butler, like Butlers, whatever. I mean, but still, like they beat them soundly. There was no, like there was no suspense there. Yeah. And as, as Julia pointed out yesterday on the radio show, never forget William and mary beat Mark Godfried on his contract extension day. Like don't, don't take Bill and mary lightly in these situations, that's the team that might surprise you from time to time. So I need to, I need to know what's funny about state is because your to your point. We have been kind of, you know, everything is the focal point right now is about you and see what the heck is going on with them. Can they turn around obviously the fascination with john showers first season. I mean I don't know maybe Carolina can finally get things going when they ruined john shares first game at Cameron indoor stadium in the rivalry in the same way that they ruined coach K's last game at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Like maybe that's the jumping off point. I have no idea. But I did laugh at a state fan I saw on my twitter timeline tweeting something along the lines of like States playing great Carolina is losing spiral. Can't wait till they beat us by 30 at PHC. Ah spoken like a state fan smoking like a state fan. Anyway that's gonna wrap it up for this edition of the A. C. C. Panic room. We will see you saturday night following the A. C. C. Championship game between the tar heels and the Clemson tigers. Can we get them to wear blue and orange like that. Like that was so cool. I don't know why I don't do this. Yeah shoutout to josh Graham, our friend over at WSJ s who I think at the Carolina state game was like begging Carolina, begging for years. I've been. Yeah. Yeah. You know he tried to like talk up bubba Cunningham. The idea at U. N. C. Like Carolina Carolina and state should play in their home uniforms. I need to see the red, red and the blue, blue all the time all the time. So give me the same thing with Clemson and they're orange and you can see in their blue that would look really, really cool. I would look like a platoon match to me, shout out the people who play Nintendo. Alright Lauren, we will see you saturday night.