March Madness is here and coming with it. Luis Fernandez is trying to fill out the perfect March Madness, NCAA tournament bracket. And we're gonna walk our listeners and viewers about how to go about doing that. Luis Fernandez. But our odds, we probably have better odds to win the lottery. Oh, I mean, yeah, I, I, it's no one's got a bracket. You know, listen, my, every year when I go to fill up my bracket, my goal I have, I have a couple of goals. One is, let's see how many games I can go without losing someone. Right. Normally it's one game like Max. Um, then my next goal is, well, let's see how far I can go without losing a final 14. And normally I lose one by the end of the first weekend. So, uh, and then from that point, it's just have fun, have fun because most of the time you're, that's all, that's all really the only option you gotta have just go in expecting chaos. Uh, and we'll do our best here to help you navigate that. So maybe you just have a little less chaos than everyone else. And so, so this is to try to help you to make sure that your brackets not in threat and shreds. By the end of the first weekend, uconn is gonna open up as the favorite in this tournament and for good reason, and the Blue Bloods don't rebuild. They reload Luis Fernandez, walk our listeners through why the Huskies are gonna win back to back national championships. Something that hasn't been done. Mind you since the Florida Gators. Uh So calling Yon Blue Blood is a little bit controversial in some people's minds. But I, you know, I think Yon has looked like one of the most um dominating teams in the country uh throughout the course of the season. Um They have been right there with everyone. Uh They have according to Ken Palm who if you do not understand, I mean, you tell, you'll probably hear a lot over the course of the next week. Um Ken Palm is a collection of uh advanced stats within men's college basketball. Um So it ranks teams different than you'd see like a P rankings or anything like that. So Ken Palm as uconn is the number one overall team in the entire rankings. They are number one in adjusted offensive efficiency. So that is how many points they are scoring per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents. They are 11 in adjusted defensive efficiency, which is points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted four opponents. Um They've just been very good. They're 31 and three. They've only lost three times. Uh They just won the big East tournament. Uh They've, they've looked very dominating. They have that experience. Uh This to me feels like the best chance to get a back to back national champ since that Florida Gator team in 06 and 07. Now, that's not to say that they cannot lose. Um The one thing I wanna throw in here, Mark is to say just as we have not had a national champion, a back to back national champions since 2006, 2007. The defending national champion the following year in the NCAA tournament has not made it past the sweet 16 in all of these years since Florida's back to back. Wow. So, wow, this is one of those things where, how much do you trust uconn? Let, hey, let me pull back the curtain for our listeners and viewers. This wasn't in the show notes, I wasn't prepared for this. Is that what I would say? That's, that's crazy. Stefan Castle is the team's best pro prospect, senior transfer guard, Cam Spencer. You talk about efficiency, efficiency, almost 15 points a game. The 3 to 1 assist to turnover ratio, almost 50% from the floor, 91% from the foul line, 44% from 30, they have uh Tristan Newton as well. They have Alex Caravan, Donovan and Klingon as well is gonna be a lottery pick as Well, you mentioned the Ken Palm rankings. The one thing I think holding uconn back isn't the complacency from a year ago because Adama Sanogo Jordan, Hawkins, Andre Jackson Junior, they're all in the NBA, but I look at their bracket. It is really tough. We get into week two. Right fa U A final four team from a year ago, bringing back seven out of its eight players from last season's team. You have to face them in round two. Oh, and let me look at the other bracket. Illinois is a three seed. Just won the big 10 tournament. Iowa State smoke Houston in the big 12 tournament. They have a really, really tough bracket and then, oh, you mentioned your Ken Palm rankings, Luis Fernandez, Auburn, check them out in the Ken Palm rankings. They're really high up. Where are they number four in the country in Ken Palm? You said take that for data? Um I, I um yeah, so that's, you know, you're right. I don't, I don't think FA U is as I'm not as concerned about them as I was last year and then I wasn't super concerned about them last year. But, um, I think FA U being an eight seed is pretty, that's a little high for my taste, but that Auburn game in the sweet 16 is very scary. Um, you know, I, I was kind of shocked that they were a four seed. I mean, they, they went on this big run towards the end of the year, they won the SEC tournament and it just feels like the committee didn't reward them at all. Um, when 11 thing I like to look at with rankings, right? Is what are the teams that stand out as kind of being seated in the wrong place? Right. And so Auburn as a four seed, so that would mean that the best Auburn would be, would be the, what I'm doing my math correctly. 13th, best team in the country, right? Um, the, uh, Kal has Auburn is the fourth best team in the country. So it's, it's, it's interesting that II, I agree with what you're saying though, uconn. Yes, difficult bracket. That could be a problem if not uconn, who do you like to win the NCAA tournament? And then we'll get to the manifesto of all of the rules that you should follow if you're filling out your bracket. Um, so I want, I, you always, I always tend to lean towards higher seats just because historically speaking, and this is something we'll talk about here in a second, higher seats tend to win those teams that historically tend to do. Well. Um, Houston, I think is a prime example. I had Houston winning it all last year. Um, I did not get rewarded for that, unfortunately. Um, you know, I think that I don't necessarily trust Purdue. I think that might just be more of last year's 116 loss talking, but I just, I just don't trust Purdue. Um, I think UN C is in a really good position. Uh, assuming they play, uh, like they did, um, not against NC State in the AC C tournament leading up to that game. Yeah, leading up to that game. Yes. But really, I think, um, I think Houston is the one team I'd be watching. Auburn is also intriguing if, if Auburn can get out of the, that if Auburn can get past uconn, I'm very fascinated by what they could do. Um Yeah, it's, it's, it's interesting. I, like I said, if there's gonna be a year where someone repeats, I think this is the year, but I don't know if you're putting it in the bracket. Sometimes you wanna kind of zig where other people zag. So, what about you, Mark? I like UN C and I like Houston and look, you're saying Mark, we number one seeds, let me give you some numbers since 1985 when the tournament expanded to 64 teams. Number one seeds have won 24 out of 38 championships. Number two seeds have won five championships, three seeds have won four. It means since 1985 33 out of 38 NCAA tournament champions are top three seeded teams. So look like it's not always fun to go chalk, but those are the other teams that I also like the, the last two seed to win a national champion. Baylor is Villanova in 2016. Ok. The last three seed to win a national championship was uconn in 2011. What was Baylor a few years ago? Uh, they are a one seed. Ok. I think that was, wasn't that one and one? I think that was Baylor. Baylor versus Gonzaga. I think it was 21. Yeah. Yeah. My, my memory failed me there. Let's get to our next rule is picking a team with the blue uniform. They call it Blue bloods for a reason. Yeah, we're talking about blue bloods. Ok. So why is this since, 04, 23 out of the 20 or excuse me, since 2004? Only Louisville in 2013, Baylor in 2021 have won the national title without blue as a primary uniform color. So, Houston, that means they're not gonna win it it by this, by these rules. Yeah, by these rules. Yeah. But you're not wrong with the high seeds usually winning though. And it's fun when the U NBC S are the Fairley Dickinson's of the world win. But there have only been two, number one seeds to get knocked off. There have only been 11, 2 seeds get knocked off by 15 seeds. So, like when you're filling out your bracket, I don't have the appetite or the fortitude to knock off a Blue blood in the first round. It's not impossible, but just given that we've been doing this now for decades, it is not likely is what I would say. Interesting. Do you want to get into your Ken Palm rankings because you do this every year and you explain the efficiencies on offense or defense, which teams are capable of winning because I want to get a rundown of that list and then we'll revisit this list come early April and be like Lewis was right again. Well, so there are a couple of different ways to look at the kampong rankings and how it all calculates. I'm gonna give you two. So one note, this is, this one is a lot more straightforward that since Ken Palm started in 2002, all but one national champion has ranked inside the top 25 in adjusted offense and adjusted defense. Essentially what that means. Balance, balance is important. What you often see is those teams that are like really good on offense and really bad on defense or really good on defense and really bad on offense. They are a lot more up and down so they're either gonna get hot or they're gonna be really cold. So in order to win six games in a row, you have to be able to stay the course. Um You wanna know some teams that fall within that category, lay it on us. Luis Fernandez, I'm ready. It's a decent amount and it's kind of some people you would expect there are some kind of little surprises in there though. Y yep. Houston. Mhm. Purdue. Ok. Hang on. Can we pause, can we pause there with Purdue really quickly? Uh You mentioned earlier of trepidation from last year compared to this year. One thing with Purdue, everyone knows about Zach. He's massive. He's 74, 24 and almost 12 rebounds a game. The outside shooting is much improved from a year ago. So last year they are at almost 33% from deep this year, they're almost 41% huge improvement there for the boiler makers. It, it's interesting because it almost, um, in some ways, it harkens back to what happened the last time, a one seed lost to a 16 seed right when, uh U VA lost and then came back to win the national championship game the next year. Um A lot of people would do not trust picking U VA to go very far in that either. So, I don't know, I want to dig into a little bit just truly see how much different this Purdue team is. But 11 other thing with Purdue and I'll let you continue your list. I promise you, Braden Smith, their guard fourth in the nation and assists 7.3 a game. Very good ball distributor. But please continue your list with Ken palm rankings. So I said, Auburn Arizona, Un C Creighton Marquette. And yeah, that's awesome. So, among those teams were people listening this or watching this one of those teams is going to win the national championship. Well, yeah, I mean, like, it's 20 of 21 years. The only, the only, the only time this has not happened was in 2014 when uconn is a seven seed winning that wild run to beat Kentucky in the national championship game. Now, another way to look at this right is if you wanna get ultra specific since 2002, once again, when camp was created, the a just no team has by every team that has won the National Emmy worth, every team that has won the national championship has had an adjusted offense of 57th or better and an adjustive defense of 44th or better. And so that includes all the teams I just named and a couple of teams I did not name. I'll go ahead and list some of them off because this one adds a few more teams to that list that makes things really interesting. Ok, Iowa State 55th in offense first in defense, stifling defense, great pressure, they turn you over and if you need to know what I'm talking about, go pop on that tape of that big 12 conference, uh, that conference tournament game where Iowa State smoked Houston, uh, Tennessee 29th offense, third defense. I know Dalton connect is very good there, but Rick Barnes getting it done in March, he's only made one final four appearance during his entire coaching tenure and Tennessee has Tennessee as I believe, has the fourth is the fourth longest stretch of teams with a NCAA appearance that have not made the final four ever. So, are they due or is there another reason why? Um Duke, they were just outside of that top 25 1/7 offense 26th on defense. Um Let's see who else here, Michigan State and that was shocked me. Uh but this is one of those ones where I'm like, OK, what does the eye test say? Because 57th in offense eight and defense, they play very slow. So I think that's one that makes me a little bit. I'm not sure. Uh Saint Mary's, that's another one. New Mexico, New Mexico, New Mexico, talked about New Mexico earlier. Um, Colorado Nebraska, Nebraska is interesting too. Uh TCU Nevada, Colorado State, Boise State. All right. Who you got winning the whole thing? Le Me Mark Mark. It is. And this is for those of you who are watching this to try and get advice. I'm gonna give you this exact same advice. Today is March 18th. The NCAA tournament starts. Well, the, the actual actual first round, not the plan starts on the 21st. I will submit my bracket minutes before the first game tips. I, I know you're a sick man, but I respect it to get all the last minute and that's what I recommend to everyone watch this. Mark. What, what about you do you have someone you're picking, you kind of beat Houston in the championship game. So, two ones. Yeah, I mean, like, yes, it's chalk but that's, that's what I got. I really think this is U ce to repeat. I do it. No, I can see that before we wrap this up. I'm just, I just want to throw out a couple more little factoids for people here. Ok. Now, some of these are, I think are just causation or correlation Mark Bergen. We'll see for the past 19 or the last 19 NCAA champions have all ranked inside the top 12 in the week six. A people very random. I know, but it's true. Some of the teams that we've mentioned here, Arizona Purdue, Houston uconn Kansas was up there technically, but I don't think Kansas can go for Baylor, not with mccullough's injury but Marquette Creighton UN C Gonzaga. No. Yeah, Gonzaga. Sorry, I can't read my own handwriting. Oklahoma did M Thurman Tennessee. So something to keep in mind. No five seed has ever won a national championship. Ok. San Diego State came close last year but did not win 34 years of champions. The past 34 years have come from a conference that recorded more for bids or more. So one team that falls in that category or one league is the big East and Yukon, they only have three teams, but also some of that was talking to Pat Welter a little bit earlier. Some of that, I feel like it is a little bit off because the reason why the Big East doesn't have more is because they had a lot of teams on the bubble and they got their bids stolen from those five teams that got automatic bids. Teams like Providence Seat Hall, like I think kind of got they should be, you don't want to mention Rick Pitino, Saint John's team probably watching our show right now. Oh, yeah, Rick Pitino is a big fan. Um And then the last thing I will include here is no team has ever won a national championship after losing its first game in its conference tournament. Do you wanna know some teams that lost their first game in this conference tournament? I know Duke is one of them, Duke, Tennessee, Creighton, Kentucky, Kansas, Alabama. Just some, those just like in the top four seats. So there you go. There's no reason you shouldn't win your bracket pool. Now, I think we instilled some wisdom on to the customers and the viewers of WRL Triangle Two. He's Luis Fernandez. I'm Mark Berkin a lot of time between now and the tip off of the first round, not the first four, but the first round of the 2024 NCAA tournament. That'll do it for us here. Give us a five star view Apple on Spotify, youtube tap that subscribe button on the 99 9, the fan youtube page