Duke
What is Duke's path to the Final Four?
After losing back-to-back games in the regular season and ACC Tournament, can Duke turn things around for a deep run in March?
All right, Mark began. We turn now to the Duke Blue Devils. They are the four seed in the South region. Um This is uh Duke falling a bit um as we saw towards the end of the year, they lost uh two games, uh one against UN seed and the regular season and then lost their first conference tournament game against NC State wolfpack on their run. Mark. What are your thoughts on a potential path to the final four for Duke? I'm looking at this bracket is simply as this in the South region. I can't look past the sweet 16 in a match up against number one seed, Houston. That's really tough. It's that to me is where this conversation starts and stops because to me, there's very good reason why Houston's considered the second favorite to win the entire tournament going in. So that's how I'm approaching it from Duke's standpoint and it's like a disappointing end of your regular season finale lost to rival UN C and then in the quarterfinals to NC State as well. And it's like, can we wake Duke up and say, hey, it's March now, I'm gonna say this too. In the quarterfinal game. Uh Jeremy Roach for only five points. I expect him to bounce back the senior. The Duke. Captain Kyle Filipowski is actually playing at a very high level, uh 2010 in his last two games. But what's your identity at this point? If you're Duke and I'm gonna say this too. The Blue Devils won't win the championship game this year because we find out today the recording on this Monday, March the 18th, Duke finishes number 13, the A P top 25 the Blue Devils have been top six for each of their previous championships. I look at that potential sweet 16 matchup against Houston. And that's the matchup that I have where it's like that's gonna be really tough to get by. Yeah. No, I, I agree the, the, the bracket is not in favor of Duke. Um, and, and part of that was in their control, right. If they would have beaten NC State, if they would have, um, one against UN C at the end of the game, not knock it down like 20 points against Un C A Cameron Indoor. Um, uh, I, I do think we can get lost a little bit in the moment for Duke right now because before this, right, they were looking pretty good. They were on a pretty good stretch. Um, I think that the Blue Devils have all of the pieces. It's just about how they come together. One thing I think that has really hurt Duke has been the injury to Caleb Foster that has really hurt the rotation. He's someone who is getting significant minutes. He was another ball handler. He could shoot, he could play defense. He was just one of those kind of like glue guys. Um, and they've been trying to make up that time with, you know, changing up the rotation a little bit. Some guys getting more minutes, combination of TJ Power and Sean Stewart getting in there and being more active and, and they do different things like they do bring things to the table. Sean Stewart is this great energy guy TJ. Power has, you know, struggled at times with fouls but has been able to shoot the ball well from outside. So that has hurt Duke. How do they adjust to that? Can they turn their mindset? Can they, can they flip their mindset from this streak? Um I, you know, I worry about that a little bit for the Blue Devils. Vermont is a potentially dangerous team. 13 seeds have kept it close against four seeds for, uh, uh, a big chunk of the past few years. I'm gonna quote an ESPN article here that kind of went just kind of fun facts bit by bit, looking at um, different seeds, matchups and stuff like that in the past five tournaments, 14 of the 20 matchups between four and 13 seeds were decided by single digits. That's the most of any first round pairing. Um So it's a bit of a tricky situation there for, for Duke and then should they win? Are we ready to move on to the round of 32 here? Let's do it because Vermont look third straight NCAA appearance, but they have not made it out of the first round under head coach John Becker. So that's what he's like, Kyle Philips and Mark Mitchell should feast in, in this one for sure. I think you would think. Let's go to the second round though in that matchup. Uh James Madison or Wisconsin. I'm seeing a lot of people pick James Madison and I was gonna say the same thing. I was gonna say the same thing James Madison. Definitely, they're definitely a trendy pick right now, that's for sure. So, I mean, if you're Duke, I ma you would rather play James Madison than Wisconsin in that round of 32. Um, but either way you're good, you're gonna be dealing with it. It's not going to be one of these kind of like layups um, in the 32 that some teams will have based on how the bracket falls. It's gonna be a challenge regardless. You've got to pick some upsets if you want that perfect bracket. There's been a 12 seed upsetting a five seed in 17 of the 2017 of the 22 tournaments since 2000. So, pretty much every year, we see a 12 seed upset a five seed and this is a very trendy pick. Uh Wisconsin as well has good size as well coming from the big 10. So, I mean, I'm with you too. I think Duke would rather see James Madison than Wisconsin, but we'll see how that first game there. There's gonna be a little bit scoreboard watching assume D Duke can take care of business in the first round and then, you know, let's say Duke now advances to the sweet 16 going through all this. You mentioned it at the top of this, right. They're most likely looking at a matchup with Houston and Houston did come off of a huge loss to Iowa State but Matt Houston is good and they are physical and they play defense and I think Duke has struggled at times playing teams like that. Um So how does that work out for the Blue Devils? Um We've seen them. I, I, I've said this all year. I like Duke the most when they are playing through Kyle, Philip Posy and Mark Mitchell having them attack the paint be aggressive. Get to the free throw line and then you allow Jared mccain to sag up. Maybe they sack off just a little bit more, a little bit more, just the tiniest, little bit and then he starts going and you start getting the guards involved um as well. So I, I don't, I don't really love that for Duke. Um Houston, I think is a re that is the one seed. If I was Duke, I would not have wanted to be matched up against. I'm with you in terms of the recipe for success for Duke. We know what Philip Posy can do inside, outside Mitchell to me. When he's going downhill with that left hand, he's, he runs the floor like a gazelle and that's what I would try to get him in the screen roll game. I'd try to get him going to the hoop and say, hey, stop him because athletically, in my opinion, he's like Duke's best player when it comes to just a, a pure athlete in terms of pure athlete mentioned mccain's outside shooting that has been impressive. But you've got a, you got a space the floor and then what can roach do too again? I expect Roach to rebound after only five points in the quarterfinals against state. Uh And, and look, he said that there's gonna be a players only meeting again because like, hello, Duke, can we wake up? It's March like there's no more. You can't, you can't flip a switch like that's just, that's just not how this works. Um But Je Jeremy Roach to speak on Jeremy Roach has been incredibly efficient all season. So his career too, he's played in a lot of these big games before. He's a lot of experience at this level of late in the season which you need. And, and look, we mentioned Houston we've said this on previous pods. Kelvin Sampson the last four years, just walk through it really quickly. Two sweet 16 appearances, an elite eight appearance, a final four appearance. Can you finally get it done this year? And you've got a lot of guys that can fill it up from the outside, from Houston stan 0.2 because like, look uconn is gonna be the odds on favorite but Baylor transfer LJ Cryer, they've got the big 12 player of the year and Jamal Sheed Emmanuel Sharp Jawan Roberts, they have a lot of guys that can fill it up. There's a reason why a lot of people expect Houston to go on a final four run this year. That potential sweet 16 matchup against Duke. Like I just can't get past it. Lewis, I can't let me, let's just go ahead and wrap it up with this. Then Mark Bergen. Where do you see or how do you see Duke's bracket unfolding? How far do you see them going in? March sweet 16 in all seriousness. That's about as far as I could see. I don't see Duke getting bounced in the first round. We'll see what happens with Wisconsin and James Madison in round two. But then assuming Houston takes care of business against Longwood in the first round and then you've got uh Nebraska and Texas A and M in the 89 matchup. I fully expect Houston to get out of the first weekend. So it's like I'm looking that square in the eye in the sweet 16. If somehow Duke got by Houston uh in the sweet 16 in the Elite eight. I mean, you're looking at Kentucky Marquette NC State. Dare I say it, Luis Fernandez. No, I don't think, I don't think you dare. Amazing though. If you had a triangle Elite Eight matchup, it would be terrific. The odds of that happening. I don't think the AC C would love it. The AC C would love it, I think. Um No, I agree. Sweet 16 is kind of what I see there. If Duke were to beat Houston, I'd say Duke getting into the final four. But, you know, I just, last year, the one thing I keep jumping in my mind is last year that Tennessee team beat Duke up, they played a physical brand. So is that something that Duke thinks about going into this tournament? And it's like, all right, we got to put on a big boy pants. We really got to play some bully ball here. How does that, how do those kind of moments impact them? How, how's John Shire grown from year one to year two? Um As a head coach, especially going to the NCAA tournament. That's where you're judged ultimately. Do you think the Blue Devils will make the sweet 16 as well? I do think that they get to the sweet 16. Yeah, I think that's fair.