Our Take
Will UNC get a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament? Duke looks to regroup
"WRAL Triangle and Two" hosts Mark Bergin and Louis Fernandez discuss whether North Carolina can get a No. 1 seed in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
Welcome to another edition of Wral Triangle and two. I'm Mark Bergen. He's Luis Fernandez, Un C coming off a big win this weekend against rival Duke in Lewis. We are into tournament play. The AC C tournament tips off on Tuesday. How are you doing this afternoon? My man, I'm, I'm good, dude. It's, it's great that we're already here at this time of the year. It's wild that we've gotten to this point, um, where we're already here in postseason, the regular season is done. Uh, we've got UN C and Duke with a double by so they won't play until Thursday, NC state fighting for its, uh, postseason life. Uh, they will play Louisville on Tuesday. So you, you really hope for the wolf pack that is gonna be a dub, but we're gonna get to them in just a little bit too. Yeah, we're gonna start with UN C. I always have questions. Lewis first question off the bat is, in your opinion, is North Carolina gonna get that final number one seed heading into the NCAA tournament because right now it looks like Houston uconn Purdue are pretty well set. Can the tar heels get that fourth number one seed in the big tournament. So I think it's possible, but I just don't think it's gonna be up to them if that makes sense. Um, I think the only way that UN C could, like for sure get that final number one seed, maybe if Tennessee, like, you know, loses in the first round or something like that. But, um, they need to win the AC C tournament outright. Um, And then they need Tennessee to lose the SEC tournament at some point in time. If those two things happen, then I think there are some genuine questions. We have a lot of people bring up just the whole like notion that UN C and Tennessee play each other and that UN C one, I mean, I think that should matter for something. Um Tennessee's metrics have been pretty impressive. Um And, and they've also played a lot of quad one teams. Some of that, I think just goes back to the kind of what people think about sec basketball right now versus what people think about AC C basketball right now. Um So it's definitely possible, I just think it's gonna be UN C can only control so much in that equation. But last time I saw Joe Lunardi had them as the top two seed, uh which, you know, in some cases might be a pretty good thing. OK. OK. See this is where I push back because you mentioned the head to head against Tennessee already took care of the volunteers and Tennessee lost this past weekend to Kentucky snapped a seven game winning streak. Arizona lost to us C Iowa State lost to Kansas State. Do I need to keep going? Um, I it's just, I mean, you know, if you, if you want me to, if you want me to, to, to turn on that hat right now, North Carolina did get the win against Duke. Don't get me wrong, but let me on the road. Mind you at Cameron Indoor Stadium as if that doesn't count for anything for the tar heels. I mean, it counts, but I think part of it is um UN C before this game had not been like the most consistent like they had not been looking like as great as you would expect. Um getting the wins. Virginia Tech, Virginia and Miam NC State, Notre Dame Duke. So yes, they are on a six game winning streak, right? But Un C, some of those games were incredibly close against like lesser competition you had back in uh late January or early February where they had lost, win loss, win loss. So I think there were questions about UN C from that perspective. I think they have started to show that that is no longer the case. But what I'm saying is that UN C is not like the end all be all number like yes, 100% give their if they don't get the number one seed, they're robbed. I don't think that's the case. Um, because I mean, you look at the balls right here, I'll pull up Tennessee's schedule here. Hold on one second as I type while you do that while you do do that. Here's what I think we're shaping up to UN C, if Arizona say UN C gets a one seed, Arizona gets a two seed. If they're in the same bracket rematch, Caleb Love against his former team. That's what I think we're working towards right now and maybe Tennessee gets that final one seed and then UN C is the two seed in that bracket. Yeah, that's what I think we're building towards. I wanna live in that world, Lewis II. I don't know if, uh, I don't know if I do, I don't know if I do mark. Um, but the, when, when you, when you look at Tennessee, right. So even their last four games, yes, they did lose a tight one at home versus Kentucky, but they had just beaten Auburn, Alabama, South Carolina, two of those three on the road. People are going to talk about that. They beat Kentucky already earlier this year. Like, so both Tennessee and UN C are deserving of that number one seed. But ultimately just because of where they've been positioned here as the season has wrapped up. I do think that it's still tend c in the driver's seat unless they lose, if they do lose in the SEC tournament and UN C wins. My expectation would be for UN C to get that number one seed, but it's gonna be tight, it's gonna be close. And, you know, with the way these teams are playing, it could come down to the championship game in their respective conference tournaments. We'll agree to disagree there between UN C and Tennessee as a Tar Heels fan. Lewis someone to put your fan hat on for just a second. Ok. Do you want the Tar Heels to play the Duke Blue Devils again in the AC C tournament? So, um, I mean, I think that'd be really cool from a fun uh fan perspective, right? Like it's like, are you afraid the Blue Devils could find third match? Are you afraid of the Blue Devils at all? Because North Carolina won both matchups in the regular season? I think UN C matches up well, against this Duke team. This iteration of UN C matches up well, against this iteration of Duke. Um, Duke does not defend the paint as well as they probably should. Some of that is because of rock construction and they don't have as much size in the front court. Um And so you're able to get people like Armando Bacot. Um, and you know Harrison Ingram to play well, I mean, Cormac Ryan Jeez Louise, like, I don't know, where did that come from. Um So, no, uh I, I don't really care too much. I think it's always fun when those two teams play, I think though, from a UN C perspective and I'd have to check this. I, I don't, I don't remember off the top of my head, but it's one thing that I feel like people always talk about. I do not believe UN C has ever won the AC C tournament and won the NCAA championship in the same season. I don't think that has ever happened. So, from a UN C perspective, maybe you, you, you'd rather lose in the semis and then win the NCAA championship, but maybe that's kind of what you would prefer. Um But no, I mean, it's, yeah, I, I don't think UN C is afraid of Duke. I don't think this iteration, the UN C is afraid of Duke. Um You know, I, I don't think that it is, uh, like I said, I think it's just a, a difficult matchup for what this Duke team and this UN C team are this year. What was the atmosphere like in Durham? Because you were boots on the ground as part of Wrls coverage on Saturday before the big game? I mean, it was great. It's, these games are always so cool because especially when they're played in Cameron because of how small it is. And so it just feels like you take all of the atmosphere, all of the, um, the, the pressure of this kind of moment and it feels like you're taking it from here and you just like scrunching it down and putting it all into this very small building. It's intimate. Intimate. Yes. Is a good word for. There are a lot of, there are a lot of cool people that were there. Coach K was there. Um You had Dave Canalis, a New Carolina Panthers head coach was there. Um Michael Stran was there again. I think Mi Michael Stan has been to a couple of Duke games. I I'm sure there's a reason for that. I should look into that. Um But yeah, it's, it's, uh it was, it was really fun. It was, it was a fantastic time as usual. Um And uh yeah, I mean, when these two teams just kind of put this in perspective, right? This was the 50th meeting between these two teams when they are both in the uh top 10, ok. Before the record was 25 and 24. Now it's UN C leads that series 26 to 24 to show how tight that is. And before this game, the average score of those matchups was 77 to 76. So by all accounts, this was a, a not a blowout, but it was essentially a blowout when you look at what these games are normally like. So, um it, it was, it was a really a really cool game, really fun game. I do think one thing I do wanna also shout out here, we, we talked about this briefly on the, um, wrel, uh, plus extended coverage of the game. Hubert Davis needs to be given his flowers. What he has done as a head coach. You've continued to see his growth. Um, you've continued to see him going from that national championship run in year one, which was, you know, wild and I don't think a lot of people expected year two, the huge fall off, the complete disappointment of not making the tournament after being the preseason number one and then year three, revamping the entire roster, bringing in people and getting everyone to work together. So, cohesively, you go back to the Duke game um at UN C Arman debate, got I to play really well. Who, who, who would you say was the next best player in that game? Harrison Gri, a transfer from Stanford and then the biggest player in this Un C Duke game. Cormac Ryan, a transfer for Notre Dame. So I, I think it just speaks a little bit to how Hubert Davis continues to craft these rosters. So I think much flowers need to be given to him. Yeah, I thought Cormac Ryan was gonna outscore Duke in the first half the way he was shooting it to start the game. It was three straight, three pointers and it was like, wait a second, it's, you know, forget Un C versus Duke. This might be Cormac Ryan versus Duke. It was it was so it was so funny because the 1st and 2nd 1 from like were like from almost the exact same spot. And so I had the broadcast up on my phone and I was like, is my, is my, it's like, is my stream like lagging here? What's going on? I check the score. I'm like, oh no, no, those are three more points. Um Yeah, that was Cormac Ryan um just truly, truly elevated. Um He's, he's used to dropping a lot of points at Cameron before. I think when he was at Notre Dame, he had, it was a 28 point game at one point. So he's buckets man that you just, you'd love for him to continue that, that three point, that three point shooting streak, especially for the rest of the tournament, the both tournaments, I would say the floor spacing and how that can help the tar heels offense. And it seems to be a different guy each night for North Carolina, whether it's RJ Davis, who I'd say is the favorite to win AC C player of the year. We know big cuts, a double, double machine. Uh Ingram has played well at times this year and then Ryan shooting at a high clip at the right time and when you get into the tournaments, the AC C tournament would be in Washington DC, but you start to play in some arenas, some arenas that are more uh football stadiums and you wonder if that affects the shooting at all. Keep an eye on that. Uh, when it comes to Cormac Ryan's ability to stretch the floor and he's been hot for the tar heels for the last month or so. Getting hot at the right time too. We gotta talk about Duke Lewis. Where does this Duke Blue Devils team go from here? Remember that? The Blue Devils will be a two seed in the AC C tournament as well. So not all hope is lost even after another loss to the North Carolina Tar heels. No, I think it's really easy to overreact um to single games. That's just how the, the, the brain works, right? And so for Duke, they were playing some of the best basketball in the country coming into this game. Um Most metrics still have them inside the top 10 in terms of, you know, offensive, uh adjusted, offensive efficiency. Their defense had been playing a lot better but struggled at times against UN C, especially from Cormac Ryan, which was, which was pretty wild. My thing with, um, with Duke is just, it's all about consistency and, you know, you hear, you know, head coach, John Ser and the players all say it right. They're like, we have to play full 40 minutes, we have to play full 40 minutes and that is coach, speak to an extent, but it's also true. You know, you have the, the underclassman guards of Jared mccain Tyrese Proctor, they were a big reason why Duke was even in it going into halftime. Part of the reason why UN C did not run away with that game in the first half. Um And it's, it's their ability not just to score but also to affect the game in other ways. Uh Tyrese Proctor had a few steals. Jerry mccain continues to be one of the best uh uh rebounding guards in the AC C and Kyle Filipowski finished with a huge stat line. Obviously, I think it was like 23 points. I wanna say on the game, he only had, I believe four in the first half. He finished with like 19 2nd half points. Some of that's foul trouble, some of that ties in that he does have a tendency to get in foul trouble. But when you look at this team just, you need more consistency throughout the course of the game. Um, because if, if they, if Duke played like they did in the second half in the first half, I think they would have won that game. There's more urgency and I know that's hindsight's 2020. It wasn't really like, even when Duke cut it to three, when roach is three bounced in towards the end of the game. I'm like, ah, the tar heels still like the, the outcome of the game wasn't really ever in question to me. I credit the Blue Devils for fighting till the end, but it's like, where was that urgency from the jump from the jump ball? And after the game, John Shire even told reporters as such saying, hey, you know, early on when Cormac Ryan is getting open, looks in Cameron and he's gonna knock them down. That really was a big difference in uh that three in the second half as well by Elliott Cao, who I think was like the real nail in the coffin during Saturday's game. Yeah. No, I mean, it's um they, they reeled it a two pointer but uh it, it looked like it was a three pointer that the late shot at the end of a at the end of a the shot clock buzzer. No, I know which one you're talking about. I I think that um some of it is just urgency and being ready to go. Um You know, there you can only use youth as an excuse for so long. But when you compare the two, obviously, Duke is significantly younger than UN C is and I think UN CU is, is ready for that. Um But so, so that it's like moments like that that make you a little more concerned for Duke come the NCAA tournament. Um They are incredibly talented and they're gonna be able to score at a high clip. It's just about those other things, the, you know, loose balls, the um you know, finishing through contact, uh the rebound, not physically rebounding but rebounding from those lows. Jeremy Roach is not going to miss upwards of what was I think 10 shots um that he's been incredibly efficient this year. So that's not something that's gonna like continuously happen. I, I just, I think at times this Duke team can get a little bit in its own head. But if you told me Duke came back and won the AC C tournament, I, I would believe you like this team is not out of it by any means, is their road to a final four. A little more difficult now, most likely. Yes. Um I've seen Leonardi drop them down to a three seed um in some situations. So they still have to, I think they, they had a lot of momentum before this game. One game should not completely throw off their momentum, but I do feel like what's gonna be big for them in the AC C tournament is to get that going again. Continue to feel good about where they're at so that you can propel yourself into the NCAA tournament. We are 15 minutes into today's episode of Wrl Trlin two. Lewis. We mentioned all the star studded people that went to go watch this game and we buried the lead Cooper flag being there in attendance of the game. And if you're bummed about this year's Duke team, just wait till next year because you have a loaded recruiting class coming in the Blue Bloods. They don't rebuild, they reload Cooper flag. I'm telling you he's the name of a player. We're gonna be talking about around this time next year. Mark 100% 100%. Um, 1 group though, we haven't talked too much about. The. Mark is the NC State wolfpack. No, let me, let me put this out there right here. Here's let me take the lead on this seven seasons. Now with Kevin Keats and short of winning the AC C tournament, the Wolf Pack won't make the NCAA tournament. You have two tournament appearances. No NCAA tournament wins during that tenure. That's just where you're at with this team right now. And you've got the two DJ S DJ. Burns DJ Horn are good, Casey Morsel. We'll see what the Wolfpack can do. Tuesday against Louisville, Louisville a 15 seed, lowest seed in the AC C tournament. But I just, I don't know where you go from here, but those are just the facts of where NC State finds itself heading into the conference tournament. Can't lose to Louisville. I'll tell you that much. You want to talk about bad taste in your mouth. You cannot lose to Louisville in the first round of the AC C tournament. Um I think it's, it's so tough. Um, because I remember about halfway through the season, people were talking about NC State and the bubble and it's just really since that pit wake kind of, uh, stretch there at the middle of February early February, I mean, look, you had NC State, they competed against, uh, UN C uh, at home. UN C pulls away late in the second half. You're feeling good about them. They bounced back with a win against Louisville. They beat Wake Forest, um, at home when the, the, the double bird game, if you will and then you have that three game losing streak and then you win two games and then you lose two and then you win one and then you lose one and then you win one and now they've lost four games in a row. Um I'm not gonna pretend like they were losing to bad teams in this last four game losing streak. Obviously at Florida State at UN C versus Duke at Pitt. Like it's not like they were playing no, but it's just, it, it's the, the continued troubling trend that you see with this team where it's, they're not scoring, they're not clearly playing great defense. I it's, I, I mean, I don't expect this team to make a run in the AC C tournament and maybe I'm gonna eat my words. I, I just, I just don't see that happening. Um You know, I, I it's a tough position for NC State and the Wolf Pack to be, um, some reminders about Kevin Keats and his contract situation, right? Um Because of the NCAA um uh violations slash punishments that happened before he got there that were enacted. Um He was able to extend his contract or enact an extension to his contract for two years. Um So his contract goes through, I believe it's the end of the 2028 season at this point. Um So, you know, in terms of his, for his future, um that would be if, if there were to be some kind of firing. Um, obviously, that would be a good chunk of change that's gonna have to be bought out. Um, but, uh, and you look at just what the past few years you said seven with Kevin Keats have been like in NC state, right? You had two NCAA tournament appearances, um, in those, uh, the, the highest they've gotten in the A P polls, they got up to number 15 in the 2018, 2019 season. Um, you know, the past few years, uh, 11 and 21 1411 and 2022 2021 season, uh 23 and 11 last year, 17 and 14 currently this year. Um I, I think there's a lot of reason for, uh, fans to be upset and frustrated. I do not know what's gonna happen next with Kevin Keats. I do not know what's gonna happen next with NC State. Um But what I can say is you better not lose to Louisville, you better not lose to Louisville on Tuesday. Let this episode of the WRL Triangle and two podcast known, be known as the continued troubling trend podcast. Or the Double Peace podcast. Luis Fernandez. That is a good place for us to wrap on the eve of the AC C basketball tournament. Uh, we have a lot to tease because we have tournament coverage. You know, Casey Hints will be in Washington DC. He's, we've also launched a sports betting podcast today. Online sports betting becomes legal here in North Carolina. So check that out over on WRL Sports fan.com Lewis. What else am I missing? No, just, just keep an eye out for continued coverage throughout the course of the AC C tournament. We'll have you covered from a TV perspective as well as from an online perspective. Wrl.com, WRL Sports fan.com. Um, and, uh on top of that too, watch out when selection Sunday and the beginning of the tournament comes around, we'll have an interactive bracket that you all can participate in. Always a fun time. Uh, and we're gonna work on, um, crafting some good, good content for you so that you can, uh, do, do the best in your bracket pools. Uh Remember Mark, not that I don't wanna, like I said, I don't want to too because it's not, these are not my numbers like I am not the one doing these analytics, but last year before the tournament started using Ken Palm and some history and things like that, that your formula, your formula, that it is, it is, it is not an original idea. I am just, I am just continuing to spread the gospel if you will. But you can look at some numbers and determine who is going to win the NCAA tournament, not one team, multiple teams, but just kind of something to keep in the back of your mind. We'll have plenty of good information like that for you online. As we get closer to the, the big Dance Louis, you might not want to claim it, but we'll make sure our listeners and viewers have the Luis Fernandez formula when they're filling out their bracket. Because it's good information. It's good information. And that's, that's where I'm gonna put my stamp of approval on what it is that you do. You might not want to claim it for yourself, but you presented it in a way where it's like, hm, this makes a lot of sense and year in and year out. It's one of those, what a dozen or so teams that goes on and wins the Big Dance. Yeah, it's, I, this is one of the best times of the year. I'm so pumped. I'm so excited. Same, same. Get me to selection Sunday, fill out like a million brackets. And again, something that legally here in North Carolina, we can now gamble on as well. Very excited about that. Uh Lewis, you're the absolute best. Your coverage on Saturday, Duke UN C was fantastic. Well done there for Luis Fernandez. I'm Mark Bergen. Thanks for watching Wrl Triangle Two. If you're on youtube tap that subscribe button. Apple and Spotify five stars, five stars only. We will see you next time. Happy tournament time. Everybody take care so long, everybody.