Brownlow: A breakdown of UNC and Duke's NCAA Tournament draws
Posted March 13, 2022 8:01 p.m. EDT
Updated March 13, 2022 11:25 p.m. EDT
We now know what seed UNC and Duke will be, and what their draw would be to advance past the first weekend and potentially beyond. Let's take a look at the draw for each.
UNC (24-9), NO. 8 SEED IN THE EAST REGION
First Round Opponent: No. 9 seed Marquette (19-12)
If that name sounds familiar to Carolina fans, it's likely not for good reasons. Last year, Marquette came to UNC in a last-minute home game added to make up for a COVID cancellation and beat the brakes off of them. Back then, they were coached by former Duke point guard Steve Wojciechowski. But he got fired and the Eagles hired Shaka Smart, whose stint at Texas did not work out and who took VCU on multiple NCAA Tournament runs when he was there. This year's Marquette team is ... well, it's managed to grab a 9-seed in spite of losing six of its last 10 games. The Golden Eagles beat Villanova twice and Illinois once, though, and those wins were enough to get them in.
Like most Smart teams, the Eagles try to pressure the ball and force turnovers. They also block a lot of shots and don't let you get easy 2-point looks. But they are a horrible rebounding team (330th in offensive rebounding, 306th in defensive rebounding) and going at a fast tempo should be a pace Carolina is comfortable playing at. Marquette is one of the least experienced teams in college basketball, which might explain some of the up-and-down of their season. The experience ranking is at least a little deceiving, though, as Marquette's roster was built through transfers. Most of them don't have experience AT MARQUETTE, but do have experience.
But they are talented and well-coached, and if Carolina assumes it will get out of the first round it should think again.
Second Round Analysis....
Carolina would face No. 1 seed Baylor unless something absolutely insane happens, and Baylor is going to be playing basically on its home court in Fort Worth (or 90 minutes from its campus). The reigning national champs feature only three players from last year's national title squad, but Scott Drew and Baylor have weathered the loss of experience and the loss of talented players due to injury to a 26-6 record. The Bears are well balanced and still one of the better defensive teams in the country, although not as dominant as they were a year ago. The Bears force a ton of turnovers, block shots at a decent clip and just do not let teams get good looks form 3. That ... is not an ideal recipe for a team built like UNC to pull an upset. But as the Tar Heels showed last week, who knows?
...And Beyond?
Part of the fun of the NCAA Tournament is seeing how far a team you like could go, thinking of all the possible scenarios or upsets that could happen along the way. But I mean ... if UNC knocks of Baylor, anything it does after that is gravy, right? But for the sake of argument, let's say seeds hold: UNC would get one of Saint Mary's or UCLA in Philadelphia, and then it would get No. 2 seed Kentucky, a team that absolutely destroyed UNC back in December on a neutral court. So yeah. If you're a UNC fan, hope for a good showing on the first weekend, enjoy an upset if it happens and don't expect much beyond that. Virginia Tech is a good team, but what Friday showed us is Carolina still isn't immune from a bad performance against good teams that it seem to stop while it's happening. At this level, all of the teams are good.
The Verdict
Carolina got the lowest-ranked 1-seed in the field in Baylor, and the Bears are pretty banged up. But beyond that, Carolina's 2-seed and 3-seed are teams that beat them an average of 19 points. UNC is better than it used to be, but still. Look, at this point, UNC is in a position to beat a team on or below its level in Davis' first NCAA Tournament game, then play loose against a No. 1 seed and see what happens. That approach worked for UNC last Saturday in Durham, so who knows? But UNC is obviously unlikely to see the second weekend.
DUKE (28-6), NO. 2 SEED, WEST REGION
First Round Opponent: 15-seed Cal State Fullerton (21-10)
The Titans won the Big West's autobid by winning the conference tournament, and one thing you can say about them is that they don't seem to care for the 3-point shot. They are one of the worst 3-point defensive teams in the country, allowing 37.1%, and they shoot just 33.5% — not ideal for an underdog trying to pull an upset. But the Titans do drive to the basket and draw fouls with frequency, and if Duke's defensive issues continue, that could be an issue. Other than that? Not much to see here. Duke might win ugly and worry everyone even more, but it should still win.
Second Round Analysis...
Duke would face the winner of 7-seed Michigan State and 10-seed Davidson, which obviously has plenty of local intrigue should the Wildcats pull the upset. Michigan State started out the season 17-4 and went 5-8 in its final 13 games. But two of those wins came in the Big Ten Tournament, and the Spartans did play well in the loss to Purdue in the semifinals. The Spartans aren't that stout defensively, but they can score. And they handed Zion Williamson his final loss in a Duke uniform a few years ago. Michigan State is talented and dangerous.
But the Spartans would have to vanquish Davidson (27-6) on Friday night, and the Wildcats under Bob McKillop are NEVER an easy out. Davidson earned an at-large berth by virtue of their 27-6 record and a win over Alabama. Of Davidson's six losses, three are to teams in the field. Davidson always executes at an extremely high level offensively and McKillop is one of the best coaches in the game. Duke and Michigan State will both have more talent and athleticism than the Wildcats, but they're not going to be an easy out for anyone.
...And Beyond?
Duke was the worst 2-seed, and that's what the last month or so has cost them when they could have snuck their way onto the 1-seed line. Now, they'll have to beat the best 1-seed in the field in San Francisco, should they get that far, to advance to Coach K's final Four Four. If Duke gets past this weekend and seeds hold, it would get either 3-seed Texas Tech or 6-seed Alabama. Duke beat Gonzaga earlier this year. It can beat any of the teams on its side of the bracket. But the question remains, as it has been since last Saturday ... WILL it?
The Verdict
A team can look great all season long and a mere bad draw can be its undoing in the one-and-done NCAA Tournament. One bad game, one bad matchup and that's it.
Duke has certainly learned that as of late, seeing what looked like a late-season surge turn into what the Blue Devils can only hope isn't a collapse.
Going into last Saturday's matchup with UNC to end the regular season, a No. 1 seed was absolutely still on the table for Duke. Duke is 2-2 since with two narrow escapes. Everything is tougher this time of year, even for a team like Duke. Urgency is heightened. And their only two losses were to teams that made the NCAA Tournament field (and one win). It's not time to panic, necessarily. The problem is that even in Duke's wins this week, the defense has continued to be an issue.
I do think that if Duke manages to beat Michigan State or Davidson in Greenville — not exactly the friendliest venue, although that could work in Duke's favor this year considering how well it's played on the road — that Duke will get to the Regional Championship game. And I think if Duke gets Gonzaga again, it might just win again. But the problem is I don't know that I trust Duke to get even that far. If they do, though, I think they get it together and go on a run, even if that run in all likelihood will end before New Orleans.
