Brownlow: Can your favorite ACC team make a run?
Posted March 7, 2023 12:09 p.m. EST
Updated March 7, 2023 2:20 p.m. EST
The ACC Tournament is upon us. And so is another important event: the Oscars.
When you're stricken with long COVID and can barely walk two blocks without needing a break, you pick up some new hobbies, or pick back up old ones. I picked back up being into movies, and I'm so glad that I did. I've seen a lot of the movies nominated this year. I've also seen a lot of ACC basketball. If you're trying to predict ACC basketball outcomes, well, best of luck. I'd do a better job predicting the Oscars, honestly.
So, I'd like to combine two of my loves as the GIFs I will use for each team as I break down their ACC Tournament experience will be either from the Oscars themselves, a nominated movie or a movie that I felt should have been nominated. It's why you'll see "Pearl," "The Menu," "The Woman King" and if I'd found a GIF for "Till," I would have used it. Nothing like the Academy trying to convince people they value diversity like ignoring two of the best female performances in a lead role this year in best actress. Justice for Viola Davis and Danielle Deadwyler.
The ACC is fighting hard to be taken seriously in spite of the teams that make up said ACC making it difficult. There are 15 teams making up this ACC Tournament, but even in this Coastal Chaos of a basketball season, not everyone comes in with a great chance to win. So, here I am to break it down with a combination of sports and Oscar analysis. OK, mostly the sports part.
Let's get to the GIFs!
NO. 15 LOUISVILLE (4-27, 2-18 ACC)
Last 5 games: 1-4 (with a win over Clemson!)
Last 10 games: 2-8
First opponent: No. 10 Boston College
Credit where it's due, right? Because a lot of outcomes for Louisville would be shocking. Basically, any outcome that didn't include a first-round loss. Louisville only played Boston College once in the regular season, and the Cardinals only lost by 10. After that, I mean, are we sure North Carolina is incapable of losing to anybody? And then there's Virginia, who Louisville only lost to by 3 points at home and by 15 in the regular-season finale on the road. Would any of those wins individually be shocking? Yes, except maybe Boston College. Would all of them be? Um, also hugely, yes.
Let's hope for Louisville's sake that this is a year that the fans and program itself never need to mention again.
NO. 14 NOTRE DAME (11-20, 3-17 ACC)
Last 5 games: 1-4 (with a win over Pitt!)
Last 10 games: 2-8
First opponent: No. 11 Virginia Tech
If there's a double-digit seed besides Virginia Tech that has plenty of good ACC Tournament history on its side, it's Notre Dame. The retired/not retired Mike Brey's team is ... well, it's been struggling this year. A team that's No. 3 nationally in Ken Pom's D-1 experience rating and 79th in minutes continuity from last season should not be this bad. As with most Notre Dame teams, the offense is an elite shooting group that can't or won't defend anyone. It lives and dies by the 3-pointer. To give the Irish some credit, 11 of their 17 ACC losses were by single digits. Two of their three wins did too, but who's counting.
Will Brey actually retire? He took it back in early February after announcing in January. But he did do shots after his last home game. That doesn't necessarily mean anything, though.
Could Notre Dame get past the Hokies, then upset NC State and Clemson? I could see it. But a team that doesn't play a bench and hasn't been good enough defensively is sure going to need a lot to go right to string multiple wins together. That's something Notre Dame hasn't done since November. Literally.
NO. 13 GEORGIA TECH (14-17, 6-14 ACC)
Last 5 games: 4-1
Last 10 games: 6-4
First opponent: No. 12 Florida State
It might raise your eyebrow to see that Georgia Tech is over .500 in its last five AND its last 10 games. Entering February, Georgia Tech was winless in ACC play and had lost nine in a row as of February 4. But a 2-point win over Notre Dame on February 8 began a season-ending streak where the Yellow Jackets won six of their final eight games.
Now, before we get too crazy about a hot streak, looking at WHO Georgia Tech beat is important. Three of the wins came over the ACC's bottom five teams that aren't Georgia Tech, and another win came against Division II Florida Tech. It's the second Division II opponent Georgia Tech has played this season, but that's a different conversation. Georgia Tech started ACC play 1-12 and 10 of its losses were by double digits. But all their losses since have been by 10 points or fewer and, including a 1-point loss at Wake and an 8-point loss at Pitt.
Could Georgia Tech beat Florida State? Well, duh. In fact, Georgia Tech is 2-1 against teams from the state of Florida this year with the wins coming against the D-II opponent and the top seed in the ACC Tournament, while the loss came to the worst Florida State team in decades. If that isn't ACC basketball this year in a nutshell. Could Florida State follow that up with a win over Pitt? I mean, sure. But beyond that? Absolutely not.
For now, let's all just enjoy the fact that somehow, BC and Georgia Tech are two of the hottest teams in the ACC.
NO. 12 FLORIDA STATE (9-22, 7-13 ACC)
Last 5 games: 1-4 (with a comeback win at Miami)
Last 10 games: 2-8
First opponent: No. 13 Georgia Tech
We all understood that Florida State, hindered by suspensions and injuries early, would get good enough to beat actual ACC opponents at some point. What I don't think anyone anticipated was that two of FSU's wins would come against the ACC's top five teams. And if we're being honest, I thought Florida State would take a bit more of an assertive step forward as it improved. I mean, we all forget FSU began ACC play 5-4 and was 6-7 at one point after starting out the entire season 1-9.
Florida State turns it over too much, can't make 3-pointers and can't defend the 3-pointer. Leonard Hamilton and company should just flush this season down the toilet and never look back. The Noles are one of the few teams I feel pretty confident won't last a single game.
NO. 11 VIRGINIA TECH (18-13, 8-12 ACC)
Last 5 games: 3-2
Last 10 games: 5-5
First opponent: No. 14 Notre Dame
Not to Jeff Bzdelik away the Hokies' seven-game losing streak, but without late December through late January, this is absolutely an NCAA Tournament team. Sadly, those things did happen, and the Hokies' non-conference body of work wasn't enough in spite of starting the season 11-1. An 11-1 start followed by that seven-game losing streak was ultimately the difference. It looked like Virginia Tech could get back on track after beating Duke narrowly and then Syracuse, and they probably could have. But getting swept by Boston College and then losing to Georgia Tech didn't help, plus they lost all of their premier opportunities for more good wins (at Duke, Miami at home, Miami on the road).
The point is just to say that yes, Mike Young's Virginia Tech team CAN beat anyone. It's easy to envision a scenario where the Hokies knock off Notre Dame, NC State and even Clemson. But beyond that? Who knows?
NO. 10 BOSTON COLLEGE (15-16, 9-11 ACC)
Last 5 games: 3-2
Last 10 games: 5-5
First opponent: No. 15 Louisville
The ACC was bad enough this year that plenty of teams were all out of NCAA Tournament contention early, including BC. But it was also mediocre enough that somehow, almost half of BC's ACC wins all came against teams that were in contention for an at-large spot at one point.
Could BC beat Louisville and then UNC? I mean, obviously. The Eagles only fell by eight at North Carolina, and they're a good defensive team that could get the Tar Heels flustered. BC did manage to beat Virginia just recently, so it could win three in a row. But that win was No. 2 in the middle of a three-game winning streak by the Eagles, their first against Power 5 opponents since 2015. I did not make that up. I looked.
So what should BC look to get out of its ACC Tournament experience? In an homage to former Eagle Dennis Clifford:
NO. 9 WAKE FOREST (18-13, 10-10 ACC)
Last 5 games: 1-4
Last 10 games: 4-6
First opponent: No. 8 Syracuse
If you hadn't been paying attention to ACC basketball this season just yet and saw Wake Forest as a 9-seed in an ACC Tournament played in Greensboro, it might be tempting to roll with the Deacs as an upset pick. It might still be tempting for some of you. Wake can shoot, ranking No. 2 in ACC-only 3-point shooting and 49th nationally. But the Deacs can get a little careless with the ball at times, and their defense just still isn't good enough or consistent enough. Still, when Wake gets hot? Very dangerous.
But Wake still has opponents to worry about. The Deacs will open with a rematch of their final ACC regular-season game, a 72-63 loss at Syracuse. Then they'll get No. 4-seed Duke, a team that they beat in Winston-Salem in December but lost a heartbreaker to on the road in late January. Still, this Duke team looks like neither version that Wake saw. And then there's No. 1 seed Miami, a team Wake lost its only matchup against this season on the road by nine. But Wake is 1-6 in its last seven games against the Ken Pom top 100.
It would take a run to the ACC Tournament title to get Steve Forbes and company into the NCAA Tournament. That's ... probably asking too much.
NO. 8 SYRACUSE (17-14, 10-10 ACC)
Last 5 games: 1-4
Last 10 games: 4-6
First opponent: No. 9 Wake Forest
Jim Boeheim and Greensboro go together like peanut butter and jelly. As a Greensboro native, let me just say we are thrilled to have him back. He doesn't always want to stay very long, but hey. To each their own.
I'll admit it. After Syracuse lost to Bryant in late November and got absolutely destroyed at Illinois, I thought the Orange were done. And I mean, for NCAA Tournament purposes, they ARE done. Unless they win the whole thing.
The very-much-not-retiring Boeheim and his team are coming in having snapped a four-game skid (all losses by at least 17 points) with a win over Wake Forest at home. All it will need to do is get the crowd behind it for that game, then beat Duke, a team that clocked them by 22 at home on Feb. 18. Oh, and then find a way to beat Miami, a team that they were a bit closer to beating (Syracuse lost by four at Miami in mid-January in their only meeting). When I think about the least logical and most potentially funny team that could make a long run, well ...
NO. 7 NORTH CAROLINA (19-12, 11-9 ACC)
Last 5 games: 3-2
Last 10 games: 4-6
First opponent: No. 10 Boston College/No. 15 Louisville
There is honestly no outcome you could give me for North Carolina basketball that would shock me unless you told me they'd win the whole thing. And even then? EVEN THEN I'd probably say to myself, see! You should have known! THEY DID IT LAST YEAR! At a certain point, last year has to be completely let go and purged from all of our collective memory banks. It's utterly meaningless now. North Carolina has what seems to be the easiest game imaginable in the first round. It's the one I'd want the most out of seeds 5-6-7. But why should anyone be sure that they'll win it? I'm not.
Still, especially if UNC has to actually win the ACC Tournament to get to the postseason, it's definitely the side of the bracket they'd prefer. They beat Virginia by eight in a game that wasn't that close in the first half and pounded Clemson at home by 20 in their most recent meetings with both. But why would anyone trust UNC at this point? I don't even think *UNC* believes in itself anymore. Not really.
NO. 6 NC STATE (22-9, 12-8 ACC)
Last 5 games: 3-2
Last 10 games: 6-4
First opponent: No. 11 Virginia Tech/No. 14 Notre Dame
If you're NC State, maybe you'd just as soon have slipped to the No. 7 seed. Would you rather play Boston College or Louisville, then Virginia or Virginia Tech or Notre Dame, then Clemson? Virginia Tech and Notre Dame have had disappointing seasons, but both are capable of putting together a run. Then you have Clemson looming as NC State's 3-seed, should the Wolfpack get past their first-round opponent. Clemson, by the way, is a team that beat NC State twice this year by an average of 19.5 points. It's hard to beat a team three times, right?
But is NC State the type of team that could face this challenge head on? NC State is finally in an ACC Tournament not needing to win it to get to the postseason, and it's in their home state. They haven't won a conference title in men's basketball, football or baseball in 30 years. Playing loose and with no pressure could really help them, even on a side of the bracket that is probably a little tougher for them. Imagine D.J. Burns winning over the entire Greensboro Coliseum! It isn't hard to do.
You can allow yourselves to hope a little, NC State fans. You're allowed to be excited.
NO. 5 PITTSBURGH (21-10, 14-6 ACC)
Last 5 games: 2-3
Last 10 games: 7-3
First opponent: No. 12 Florida State/No. 13 Georgia Tech
Pitt fans have been waiting for the other shoe to drop for awhile, because for Pitt basketball the last near-decade, that's what's happened. But Pitt got to Valentine's Day and was still 19-7 and had won seven in a row. Pitt is still fine, to be clear. But they went 2-3 in their final five games and had a bad loss to Notre Dame sandwiched in there. They did lose a thriller at Miami in their regular-season finale, a sign they were at least approaching their earlier-season form.
And Pitt is on the same side of the bracket with two higher seeds it either can beat or has beaten: Duke and Miami. In fact, Duke and Pitt are the only two top-5 seeds that beat Miami this year. Pitt also didn't lose a single game by more than eight points in ACC play, and that was the loss at Duke. Pitt also had the benefit of seeing (and beating) whatever this slightly improved version of Georgia Tech is, so it should win its first game. It could get past the first two. Or Jeff Capel could face his old buddy Jon Scheyer in the second game and hit a bit of a wall. But Pitt has a great chance to do something crazy if it is so inclined.
NO. 4 DUKE (23-8, 14-6 ACC)
Last 5 games: 5-0
Last 10 games: 8-2
First opponent: Winner of No. 5 Pitt vs. No. 12 Florida State/No. 13 Georgia Tech
The good news for Duke is that almost all of the teams on their half of the bracket are teams they have or should beat easily. The bad news for Duke is that the two exceptions to that are the two teams they're likeliest to play. But that's really where the bad news ends, right?
Miami will be a tough opponent to get past, obviously. And if no North Carolina teams remain, Duke could play a rubber match with the Hurricanes on a home court-esque floor on Friday night. I mean, Duke is on fire right now, in the midst of the longest win streak of Jon Scheyer's young career (six games) and playing its best basketball at the best possible time. Maybe Duke doesn't get to Saturday night, but it almost seems like a foregone conclusion at this point.
NO. 3 CLEMSON (22-9, 14-6 ACC)
Last 5 games: 3-2
Last 10 games: 5-5
First opponent: Winner of No. 6 NC State vs. No. 11 Virginia Tech/No. 14 Notre Dame
Aside from the obscenely late start time, Clemson should be thrilled with where it is in the ACC Tournament bracket. Should seeds hold, the Tigers will get a team they've beaten twice by a lot of points in NC State, albeit on a somewhat unfriendly floor in Greensboro. Then, they could get another crack at Virginia, a team they faced once last week and lost to by seven on the road. Or they could get North Carolina in a more neutral environment, a team that they lost to by a ton in their last meeting but a team also not likely to hit 15 3-pointers again.
Still, Clemson has two horrendous losses in the last month and change and has exactly two top-100 wins since mid-January. And Clemson lost to LOUISVILLE. So honestly, Clemson can lose to anybody. Or beat anybody, I guess.
NO. 2 VIRGINIA (23-6, 15-5 ACC)
Last 5 games: 3-2
Last 10 games: 7-3
First opponent: Winner of No. 7 North Carolina vs. No. 10 Boston College/No. 15 Louisville
Ever since Virginia got its "controversial" overtime win over Duke, some of its mojo seems to have disappeared. They beat Louisville by 3 on the road the next game, squeaked by Notre Dame at home and then lost consecutive games to Boston College (gross) and UNC. The Cavaliers bounced back well with wins over Clemson and Louisville (the latter by a less concerning margin) to close out the regular season, but you have to wonder if they're ready to put some magical run together.
Still, the bracket broke well for them. They'll likely get North Carolina or BC and even though the Cavs lost to both recently, they obviously can and have beaten both as well. Then they'd likely get an NC State team they beat or Clemson, a team they also beat. Maybe the worst-case scenario is if Virginia Tech goes on a run, since the Hokies were the only team to beat them between January 4-February 22. But this isn't football.
When Virginia gets it going, they're beautiful to watch. But the Cavs haven't been shooting it as well of late, and they'll have to get a more consistent effort out of their defense. Still, it's in there. And when they get it going, it's difficult to slow down. (No pun intended.)
NO. 1 MIAMI (24-6, 15-5 ACC)
Last 5 games: 4-1
Last 10 games: 8-2
First opponent: Winner of No. 8 Syracuse/No. 9 Wake Forest vs. No. 12 Florida State/No. 13 Georgia Tech
Miami's coaches have the hardest scouting job of all of the teams, huh? Although hard coaching is hardly new to Jim Larranaga. While everyone is hand-wringing about North Carolina and excited about Duke's hot streak, Miami is just hiding sneakily in the shadows. It's hard to call a team that is the literal No. 1 seed in the Tournament a dark horse. And so I won't. But Miami wouldn't be the first top seed to come into Greensboro a geographical outsider and use that to fuel them to a title run.
Miami's offense is elite, its defense is plenty good and they have a ton of guys that can score. But they're not the favorite. At least they can compete to win, unlike Viola Davis. So in honor of both being underappreciated and overlooked:
