Brownlow: Catching up on ACC basketball

By Lauren Brownlow, WRALSportsFan columnist/reporter

Between holiday shopping, the college football season and Thanksgiving, my guess is that many of you are not following your own college basketball team as closely as you would like, not to mention the rest of the ACC. But as ACC play has now officially begun and as of this weekend everyone will have played at least one conference game, it's about that time to play some catch-up, right? Who is good? Who is bad? Will they continue to be good or bad once ACC play starts? How does the ACC have a team that's second-to-last in NET rankings and said team has multiple national titles?

And of course the all-important question: which ACC teams have dug themselves such a deep hole that all they can be is a potential bad NET loss for an NCAA Tournament hopeful?

Let's get right into it!

THE GOOD

Virginia (8-0, 8th in Ken Pom, 8th in NET). Virginia opened eyes when it beat Baylor and Illinois in mid-November in consecutive games, and the Cavaliers had a real case to be the No. 1 team in the country at that point. Since, they've taken care of business but maybe not quite as impressively as before, edging a shaky Michigan team on the road and beating a bad FSU team at home by just five.

Virginia is actually ranked higher in Ken Pom's offensive rankings (11) than defensive (14), which I'm sure does not please Tony Bennett. But this is a classic Tony Bennett Virginia team: the core returns (Kihei Clark, Jayden Gardner, Reece Beekman, Kadin Shedrick, Armaan Franklin), and all have gotten better. And Virginia can SHOOT this year, ranking 21st nationally in 3-point percentage.

At this point, you'd have to say the Cavaliers are the favorite to win the ACC. But they've come a long way from making the NIT a year ago and are right back where Bennett has almost always had this Virginia program: poised to win the ACC and potentially more.

Duke (9-2, 13th in Ken Pom, 12th in NET). The Blue Devils have more than a third of the ACC's Quadrant 1 wins (three out of eight) and has played the most Q1 games (five), with both their losses coming in that Quadrant. UNC was a close second with four Q1 games so far, although it has yet to win any of them. But no other ACC team has played more than three, and most have played two or fewer, even Virginia. So yes, Duke has won more Q1 games than all but Georgia Tech and North Carolina have played. Since Duke got thumped by Purdue after Thanksgiving in Portland, the Blue Devils have won three straight and two against two good Big 10 teams (Ohio State and Illinois). Y'all may not like that they don't play anyone on the road, but Duke doesn't much care (nor should it). They've still put together a better resume than all but one ACC team so far.

Dariq Whitehead missed the first three games due to injury and has eased his way back into play ever since. But veteran guard Jeremy Roach has led the talented freshmen (plus Northwestern transfer Ryan Young) very well so far, and Kyle Filipowski ranks 7th in Ken Pom's kPOY rankings. The 7-footer shoots 35% from 3 and is one of the better rebounders in the country. Add in his ability to get steals and blocks and he's the total package.

Duke's offense has left something to be desired at times this season, but for what Duke lacks in good shooting it makes up for in offensive rebounding. Oh, and defense. I could trot out all the advanced metrics you want, but watch Duke play and watch their energy and — to borrow a word from their former coach — verve on that end of the court. It's a bunch of talented athletes playing hard and trying to make something happen, and often that turns into good and easy offense on the other end.

UNC (5-4, 23rd in Ken Pom, 40th in NET). What's old is new again, and I will now have to make the same argument about North Carolina that I did a year ago — namely, that the Tar Heels' schedule is always going to keep them in NCAA Tournament contention and even give them a bump should it come down to it, as long as they can keep their heads above water. North Carolina has played just one Quadrant 4 game, fewest in the ACC (it has one left outside the league, and maybe a few more in it, but we'll get to that). And they'll still have one more Quadrant 1 chance on December 17 against Ohio State at Madison Square Garden.

Let's look at the supposed disaster that has befallen UNC: road losses to the No. 7 and 42 teams in NET and neutral losses to the No. 9 and No. 23 teams, the former of which came in four overtimes and the latter of which came when UNC lost a late lead. Those games and results still count. No one is suggesting otherwise. And the preseason No. 1 team has not looked remotely like that at any point this year, really. But last year there was a ton more cause for alarm at this point in the season, and we all saw how last season ended.

This isn't me suggesting those who are in panic mode are insane. They're not. It's also not me suggesting that this team is bound for the Final Four again. It's not a given that UNC will keep its head above water, and it's discouraging to see UNC playing poorly after it seemed to have figured things to end last season and returned so much of its roster. Caleb Love and R.J. Davis will have to play way better, and while Pete Nance has been a solid addition to the Tar Heels, expecting him to be Brady Manek is not fair or realistic.

But pump the brakes on talk about missing the NCAA Tournament is all I'm saying. UNC makes 'the good' of the ACC solely by its NET ranking, but that kind of stuff does matter. And it could yet again on Selection Sunday. I would suggest that the Tar Heels try sharing the basketball, maybe? I don't know. I've heard that helps? Someone should tell them because ranking 348th in percentage of assisted field goals is not any kind of Carolina basketball I've ever seen.

Virginia Tech (8-1, 35th in Ken Pom, 42nd in NET). Mike Young has turned Virginia Tech into the ACC's latest team that's seemingly always either in or competing for an NCAA Tournament bid, and this year is no different. The Hokies' lone blemish so far is a loss at Charleston — not an ideal loss to take, but one that still falls in Quadrant 1. Problem is, it's the only Quadrant 1 game Virginia Tech has played. But we all know Virginia Tech is plenty capable of beating opponents in Q1. The question will be if the Hokies can avoid a slump like last year's so that they don't have to win the ACC Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament field.

Familiar faces Justyn Mutts and Hunter Cattoor are still there leading the way, while sophomore Sean Pedulla has stepped up from bench guy to primary option. Wright State transfer Grant Basile has been fantastic, shooting nearly 66% from 2 and 43% from 3, not to mention blocking 7.4% of opponents' shots when he's on the court. As usual, Virginia Tech has an excellent offense and a shakier defense but can beat anyone in the ACC on a given night. The ACC has enough bad in it this year, though, that a bad loss won't be as easily forgiven. Still, Young and the Hokies have earned enough trust that they should be right in the mix with everyone else.

Miami (8-1, 34th in Ken Pom, 49th in NET). Was there some kind of fine print in the agreement to bring Miami into the league that it would help ACC sports but maybe it accidentally said basketball instead of football? Well, nevertheless, Miami has been much more helpful to the league in the basketball arena, and has been this year as well as Jim Larranga's Hurricanes just continue to be a team absolutely no one wants to play. Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller have led the way so far, but Arkansas State transfer Norchad Omier has been a force as a rebounder and scorer as well, providing a great complement to Miller down low. The Canes aren't a great shooting team, which could come back to bite them. But they're 363rd in possession length on the defensive end, forcing opponents to average 19.2 seconds before ending a possession. And they may miss a lot of shots, but they get a lot of them back with offensive rebounds. With a hone win over Rutgers and a win at UCF, the Canes have done well enough in the non-conference to warrant kudos and will be in contention to win the whole thing (ACC, that is, not the other thing).

NC State (8-2, 55th in Ken Pom, 52nd in NET). The Wolfpack's schedule wasn't exactly NCAA Tournament at-large-esque, but why should it have been? Kevin Keatts' team had a disastrous year last year and with a 20-game ACC slate looming, they needed to get some confidence. But in spite of it, they still sit in solid position in the NET rankings as non-conference play winds down with a few more solid opportunities to go.

Yes, six of NC State's wins have come in Quadrant 4, but even those teams were good enough in NET to not drag them down too much. Virginia transfer Casey Morsell has come into his own finally for the Wolfpack, hitting 50% of his 3-point tries. Mississippi transfer Jarkel Joiner has been a prolific scorer and Terquavion Smith continues to be terrific as a sophomore. Add in the delightful DJ Burns, a 6-9, 275-pound Winthrop transfer, and you've got yourselves a fun little basketball team that could make some noise. The loss to Pitt to open ACC play was a disappointment, but NC State has shown it can compete for a possible NCAA Tournament bid if things break its way.

Pitt (6-3, 79th in Ken Pom, 78th in NET). The Panthers have managed to do what no other teams below it could: make it to ACC play with a respectable resume. It didn't look like it would happen that way as the Panthers started the year 1-3 with losses to West Virginia by a lot, Michigan by a lot and VCU by four. And I don't think in most years one would assume Michigan and VCU on neutral courts would be Quadrant 3 losses, but they were. Still, do you know what Pitt is right now under Jeff Capel in his fifth season? A few spots away from being a Quadrant 1 road game/Quadrant 2 home game for ACC teams. Thank you, Pittsburgh, for your service.

You could have almost thrown Pitt into the ruining pile after beating NC State (naturally, one of the ACC's eight Quadrant 1 wins is a conference win), but no. Pitt will not ruin anyone's NCAA Tournament resume as of right now. And we all remember how the loss to Pitt last year at home by UNC was nearly what ruined its hopes a year ago. Pitt does not belong to the ruiners' club just yet (and yes, we'll get to them).

THE MEH

Not everyone can schedule like Duke or North Carolina for obvious reasons, but for whatever reason, some ACC teams are continuously unwilling or unable to adapt to the current college basketball landscape. You want to get an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament? You can't just schedule a bunch of 300-ranked non-conference opponents and hope for the best. It won't work that way. The ACC will not give you enough help. College basketball schedules are a lot more fluid now and surely teams must know this. You've got to throw in some teams in the 100-150 range. UNC has zero wins against Power 6 teams and yet the lowest-ranked Ken Pom team that they have faced is UNC-Wilmington at 185. Duke has not only played six games against P6 teams including its win over Boston College, but it also has three wins against teams ranked 133-188.

And so the first few teams in this 'meh' section find themselves here because they weren't able to either schedule or win enough games that matter in the non-conference. When and if the ACC finds itself a few teams short in the NCAA Tournament, it's likely better scheduling could have helped avoid some of this. Perhaps after a near-decade of this being a problem, some programs will start to get it?

Wake Forest (7-2, 62nd in Ken Pom, 85th in NET). It seems insane to say a 7-2 team is meh, right? And I'm not saying that the TEAM is as much as the non-conference resume to date. Wake is 85th in NET rankings and has only played (and won) one Quadrant 1 game so far. The schedule itself isn't terrible, really, and Wake does have one of the league's Quadrant 1 wins (at Wisconsin, and resoundingly!). But if you're going to have two Ken Pom teams ranked 333 or worse on your schedule, you probably need to have more than one team ranked inside the top 100, and Wake doesn't. That's why the Deacs find themselves outside of Quadrant 1 in NET — well, that and an overtime loss to Loyola Marymount on a neutral court. Wake has some more chances: LSU on a neutral court, and at Rutgers. And then of course, because the ACC specializes in self-cannibalization, the Deacs went to Clemson and got blown out. As Wake has shown, it has the talent to beat good teams at their gym. It would just help at least SLIGHTLY more if the Deacs can sneak into that top 75.

Reigning Coach of the Year Steve Forbes is used to getting new pieces to work together, and that has come in handy this season. Florida transfer Tyree Appleby has been one of the best point guards in the league as both a scorer and distributor, while sophomore guard Cam Hildreth has stepped up and Delaware transfer Andrew Carr has given the Deacs an inside presence. Wake's fast-paced style is still there, and they're still a bit manic from time to time. So they're going to beat some teams this year, and it would be more helpful if they could do it in the Quadrant 1 or 2 way.

Clemson (7-2, 47th in Ken Pom, 91st in NET). Same deal as Wake, really, except without the excitement of the ACC Coach of the Year in Steve Forbes. And without, well, the excitement. Clemson is 91st in NET and has also played just one Quadrant 1 game (and lost it). The Tigers have now won three straight, including at Penn State and the aforementioned thumping of Wake Forest. It's a much better turn of events than that two-point loss at South Carolina early in the year. Is that just a thing Clemson is doing this year in all sports? Clemson has some weird games remaining in its non-conference schedule, though, two against teams that don't rate well in NET but do in Ken Pom. Lose a few of those and Clemson will find itself in the 100s of already out of NCAA Tournament contention. Clemson returns a lot from last year, though, including a strong frontcourt of P.J. Hall and Hunter Tyson. BC transfer Brevin Galloway and returning senior Alex Hemenway give Clemson a lot of experience in the backcourt, too, and Chase Hunter has expanded his role as a junior as well and is shooting over 50% from 3.

But there is one thing that is true almost every year since Brad Brownell has been there: Clemson can lose to almost anyone and beat almost anyone. Clemson can go 15 minutes without scoring and beat a team by 20. Or they can go 15 minutes without scoring and lose by 20. Clemson can also suddenly hit 75% of its shots and go up by 30. I've seen both happen. It would be better for the league if the Tigers could solidify their non-conference resume and get higher in NET, but there aren't a ton of chances left.

THE RUINING RUINERS

Ah yes, the exclusive club of teams that will not have a good enough NET ranking to warrant a quality win of any kind, but a team more than capable of getting an upset when someone has a bad night. The same teams you saw look incompetent against Nobody State University will be the same teams that waltz straight into the building of, say, a Virginia Tech or an NC State and hit every shot imaginable, handing them an inexplicable loss they can't afford.

Notre Dame (6-2, 73rd in Ken Pom, 142nd in NET). How did we get here, Notre Dame? Well, for starters, Notre Dame has yet to play a Quadrant 1 game this year. Or a Quadrant 2 game, for that matter. Some of it is not their fault: Michigan State would normally qualify. But a lot of it is. Notre Dame has left its home arena just once since the season began, and that resulted in a 12-point loss to St. Bonaventure the day after Thanksgiving. Hence Notre Dame only having Quadrant 3 and 4 games on its schedule so far.

I love watching a Mike Brey-coached offense as much as anyone does. But this schedule has not been an NCAA Tournament schedule. And it doesn't help the rest of the league at all. You get your NET ranking up by playing tougher games and while yes, you have to win some of them, look at North Carolina — just playing them helps! The Irish are operating right now with a rotation of 5.5 players, basically. It's four returners (Trey Wertz, Nate Laszewski, Dane Goodwin and Cormac Ryan) and a freshman in JJ Starling, plus another freshman that comes off the bench. Sometimes. Notre Dame was an experienced enough group, if not quite deep enough, to have challenged itself more in the non-conference. Now it sits at 142nd in NET and will had a team a Quadrant 3 loss should it get hot on an opponent's home court. Not great!

Georgia Tech (6-3, 120th in Ken Pom, 132nd in NET). I'll give Georgia Tech some credit — it has at least played three Quadrant 1 games. Plenty of ACC teams haven't. It has lost all three, but still. But all five of Georgia Tech's wins have been of the Quadrant 4 variety. And the Yellow Jackets have another win that NET rankings don't even count, because it came against a Division II opponent (Clayton State). I'm sorry, but that should not be allowed. I don't know if Jim Phillips can make a rule or if the teams would have to come together to do it, but someone should. If only Phillips could make a rule that the Yellow Jackets won't upset a team with NCAA Tournament hopes. But at least we'll all have that Josh Pastner postgame press conference to look forward to if it happens.

Syracuse (5-4, 78th in Ken Pom, 165th in NET). What's worse, playing seven out of your first nine games against Quadrant 3 or 4 opponents, or losing two of them? I'm going to call it a wash. Or maybe the actual worst part of it all is your Hall of Fame coach getting into a postgame argument with the head coach at Bryant, and losing.

That's the kind of sassiness I'm sure Jim Boeheim appreciates, deep down, but it won't help his basketball team. Syracuse has already gotten into the ruining business this year, giving Notre Dame its second loss in each team's ACC opener after a three-game losing streak, including said Bryant loss and an embarrassing 73-44 thumping at Illinois. Syracuse has only played one Quadrant 1 and one Quadrant 2 game, and lost both. They're now 2-2 in Quadrant 3 with one of those wins coming at Notre Dame, knocking them further down into Q3 oblivion. But we all know the Orange will absolutely beat contending teams. And likely several times. Which would have been all right if Syracuse could have actually done anything in the non-conference to cross the Quadrant 3 threshold, but alas — Syracuse now ranks 165th in NET, meaning that were a team to lose to them on their own court, it would be a Quadrant 4 loss.

Boston College (5-5, 146th in Ken Pom, 224th in NET). The Eagles dropped 24 spots in NET rankings after an absolutely ghastly loss to New Hampshire at home in overtime on Tuesday night. The Eagles are weird — they actually followed the rules of scheduling pretty well, facing only two teams ranked 300 or worse in Ken Pom. Problem is, THEY LOST TO BOTH OF THEM. They also lost to a team called Tarleton State, a team that is evidently both A. Real and B. 157th in Ken Pom?! Tarleton State, for the curious, is in Texas. I guess you have to kind of carve out your own state in a state that large. But right now, the Eagles are on the verge of being so bad that they'd count as a Quadrant 4 game on the road. That is 241st or worse in NET. And that is ... real bad.

Florida State (1-8, 147th in Ken Pom, 291st in NET). The only reason Florida State is here instead of a step lower is that the only team in the terrible category absolutely deserves to be there by itself. But the ACC had been able to count on Florida State being a steady team that always vies for an NCAA Tournament spot. A combination of injuries and suspensions have led Florida State to this point. Florida State has scheduled well, which is why it isn't further down in NET. But when you lose them all, well. Even schedule can't save you. But look at what has happened since the Seminoles lost 75-58 to Nebraska: they fell by just 10 to Purdue at home, and then went TO Virginia and lost by just 5. They are getting some players back, and they have a much better chance than Louisville of knocking off a decent team. But Florida State would need to go up at least FORTY spots in NET to get out of the dreaded Quadrant 4. It's the worst case scenario for the ACC: one of its perennial powers finds itself down, AND if it beats someone (which it will) at home, it could be a blemish too large to cover up.

THE TERRIBLE

Louisville (0-8, 211th in Ken Pom, 360th in NET). There is no parsing this one. Louisville is awful. The Cardinals are in complete disarray and while some of this was expected, no one expected it to be quite this bad. There are only three teams ranked below them in NET as of this writing (Wednesday). There is a team ranked above them that is a literal nursery rhyme (Merrimack). If you ask me if Louisville has bottomed out, I'd likely dryly respond, "No, just three spots left to go", but I've always been big on gallows humor. This could be one of the worst college basketball teams of all time. And you know what? At least they're interesting. I'm tired of all of these boring teams just giving me a few Quadrant 3 or 4 losses here or there. Go big or go home, baby. That's how Louisville does athletic department turmoil.