Brownlow: Christmas time for ACC Basketball
Posted December 23, 2022 3:47 p.m. EST
Tomorrow is Christmas Eve. Have you thought about what you would get your ACC basketball team for Christmas? Why would you, right? You've got enough people to shop for already. Well, no worries — I took care of it for you and gave every ACC team just what it needs heading into full-tilt ACC action. Or, ACCtion, if you will. You will not, so let's move on.
DUKE
Coach K's referees. Before anyone freaks out, I need you to know that this is a joke. But let's pretend for a moment that Mike Krzyzewski really did have referees in his pocket. (That would seem like he'd need really big pockets. Which he'd probably also need for all that money. Let's just move on.) Coach K himself might have been wishing for those refs the last few years as Duke had its lowest two rankings in free-throw rates since 1997 in his final two seasons (23.4, good for 336th nationally in 2021 and 28.6 last season, which ranked 232nd). Duke had been over 30 in free-throw rate every season since 1997 until 2021 and its lowest rate was 33.2. Since, they've been in the 20s and this year is actually better than they've been in awhile (29.0).
But the problem isn't that Duke ranks 218th nationally in it and they'd love it to be better. It's that as of now, Duke has an effective field goal percentage less than 50% for the first time since before 1997, which is when Ken Pom started tracking. Duke has plenty of time and ability to improve, but this Duke team also shoots 77.9% from the foul line, its best percentage since 1997. If Duke isn't making 3s and has turnover issues at times, it needs to find a way to get to the foul line. And sure, Duke could just attack the basket more or whatever. But why do that when they could just call up Krzyzewski's old referee friends that have clearly all been on hiatus for three years?
NORTH CAROLINA
Some 3s. Or at the very least, making them at a higher clip. Because right now, has its second-worst 3-point percentage since 1997. The worst? The 2019-20 season when UNC finished 14-19. Remember that? UNC being blown out by Syracuse was the final game played in that year's ACC Tournament before COVID hit. Remember COVID? Yeah, it's still around. Well, the Tar Heels' 3-point shooting came back last season, but it's gone bye-bye this year so far as they're hitting just 30.7% of their 3-pointers, 293rd nationally. Carolina has hit over 35% of its 3-point tries just twice this season, against Portland and the Citadel. Will UNC's 3-point shooting improve? I think that it will.
Caleb Love has shown to be a great 3-point shooter, although his start to seasons hasn't always been the smoothest on that front. But his percentage has fallen near 10 points so far, closer to his freshman year form than this year's. R.J. Davis shot nearly 37% last year and had hit 50% of his 3s in a game just once all season before this 4-game winning streak (he's done it three times). His 4 of 8 performance against Michigan was his best of the season by far. Leaky Black leading the team in 3-point percentage is a great thing for him and a reflection of how smart he is about when he chooses to take them (sparingly, and only when he's comfortable), but that's a concern if you're 13 games into a season and your leading percentage 3-point shooter has only made nine of them. If UNC is going to make the kind of noise it made last year down the stretch, it absolutely has to have more made 3s.
NC STATE
One lightly-used big man with tremendous upside. NC State already didn't have a lot of depth on the inside, and losing the 6-10 Dusan Mahoric just before ACC play began was far less than ideal. Thankfully, the lovely and ebullient D.J. Burns has come along nicely to pick up the slack, averaging 14.5 points in the last four games without him. But while Burns is a large man (275 pounds of contagious smile energy), he is only one man. Ernest Ross and Ebenezer Dowuona are big bodies, but that's been about it at this point. The two combined to play just 10 minutes in the win over Louisville.
Luckily for the Wolfpack, Isaiah Miranda enrolled less than a week ago and the 7-foot freshman is talented enough to contribute in theory. But it's almost a necessity at this point because NC State is a few Burns' fouls away from having to play some players extended minutes that likely won't help them much or go to a super-small lineup.
BOSTON COLLEGE
The capability to put the round ball into the white netting more often. Yes, shooting is something every team needs. Maybe it's like getting socks for Christmas. But getting socks for Christmas is something that would feel a lot different if you had, like, three pairs of socks and one of them had holes in them. That is basically Boston College right now when it comes to shooting of literally any kind. Three-pointers? They're 351st nationally in 3-point percentage. Two-pointers? They're 256th. Well what about free throws? Surely they're not bad at those. They're above average in GETTING to the foul line, but make a little over two-thirds of their attempts, good (or bad) for 286th in the country. And what's wild is they're 64th in lowest percentage of their shots blocked nationally. So it's not even like they're missing because of that. They're just ... missing.
So their gift? Their gift is making.
Clearly they didn't need any of that to knock off a top-25 ACC team in Virginia Tech, though. The process of ACC cannibalization has already begun. Merry Christmas, Virginia Tech, here's a Quadrant-3 loss.
CLEMSON
One curse reversal. There's this joke that's been going around that the moment Kyle Bambard missed a field goal at Clemson that would have given NC State the upset win and doomed the Tigers' national title hopes (they'd go on to win it), it was somehow in exchange for any good fortune for Clemson basketball. Advocates of that theory would point to Clemson's string of close losses over a number of years and missing the NCAA Tournament as a result. I would offer the counterpoint that making the NCAA Tournament two of the last six years there actually was one isn't exactly bad luck for Clemson basketball. Also, they finally broke the streak of losses at North Carolina and got the program's first-ever win in Chapel Hill. I would offer another counterpoint that when, exactly, has Clemson basketball ever had GOOD luck? Besides, Clemson fans would make that trade-off again even if it were real. And why not? Clemson football had a chance to win the national title, and it would go on to do that. Clemson basketball feels good about making the NCAA Tournament most years and has even had a Sweet 16 run since. But they're not national title quality and haven't had a team capable of it since, in my opinion, 2008.
We've seen this kind of Clemson team before: a good non-conference record win-loss wise but significant work to do in ACC play to make the NCAA Tournament. Clemson is 10-3 and is 78th in NET because it has yet to play a Quadrant-1 game. And the Tigers WENT UP 14 SPOTS after winning at Georgia Tech because that was their first Quad-2 win of the season. Clemson will essentially have to have ZERO screw-ups in ACC play and get a few Quad-1 wins to get an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. So perhaps if a curse that some of you is sure exists actually does, this team needs a reversal.
FLORIDA STATE
A time machine. Because that would allow the Seminoles to go back to the beginning of the season and do it all over again. Really, since December, Florida State has looked like a different team. They're 3-2 in that stretch after starting 1-9 and their one loss came when they got back to doing what they'd been doing earlier in the season — turning it over. This isn't me confusing Florida State for an NCAA Tournament team even with a restarted season. But we wouldn't see what we'd seen. We wouldn't have seen Siena's Andrew Platek raining 3s on them in a 17-point win or a 9-point team loss to a team whose mascot is a hat. (That's Stetson, for the uninitiated.) Leonard Hamilton has done far too good of a job at Florida State for them to have a 4-10 record, and it just wouldn't be this bad. I promise it wouldn't. Injuries, suspensions, maybe all that goes away magically and at the very least, this is a .500 team or maybe slightly above even. But even so, they knocked off Notre Dame which was their best win of the season, crushed Louisville and fell at Virginia by only five points since December began.
I've called it since the beginning of the year — Florida State, No. 251 in NET, is going to knock off someone it shouldn't in ACC play. The Tucker Center is a tough place to play and I'm not saying Duke will lose that game on New Year's Eve in Tallahassee but I am saying they should be on alert. Even though the team is bad, they've always filled up the building for Duke and North Carolina and it's likely it will happen again.
GEORGIA TECH
A face shield. Okay, so maybe this is more of a gift for Josh Pastner. But I'll admit it — I miss the face shield. And considering Georgia Tech's record with and without it, I'll bet Josh misses it too. Georgia Tech is just a team that isn't really good at anything except for not turning it over. And defending the 3, I guess. The Yellow Jackets are 6-0 when holding opponents below 23% shooting and 1-5 when they allow 23% or better, so what's the point? This can't be maintained. I think we just have to accept the fact that Georgia Tech isn't very good this year. Or at least won't be until the face shield comes back.
LOUISVILLE
Some stickum for their hands. Not sure where else one would put stickum, but still. There are a lot of things Louisville does poorly. You don't start out 0-9 without that being the case. But Louisville has turned the ball over on 21% or more of its possessions in nine of its 12 games and ranks 351st out of 362 teams in turnover percentage. What's somehow worse is that they are 360th in non-steal turnovers, meaning that most of theirs are only their fault. Like, they threw a ball out of bounds or traveled or committed an offensive foul or whatever instead of getting it stolen. And so at the very least, perhaps some stickum can help the Cardinals hang on to the basketball a bit better.
I also really need to know why Louisville is THIS bad. This team is 312th in offensive efficiency in spite of getting to the foul line a ton and making a high clip. Louisville has the worst adjusted offensive efficiency of any Power 5 team and other than nearby neighbor Cal (96.2 to 95.9 for Louisville), you've got to go up to 274 to Boston College to find the next Power 5 team close. There's not really an excuse to have an offense this bad. Not when your adjusted OE is worse than Texas A&M-Commerce, which I learned today is a real school. Get it together, guys.
Ken Pom projects Louisville to lose every single one of its remaining games and gives the Cards the best chance against Florida State, a team that has already beaten them by 22. So, uh, best of luck.
MIAMI
A sprinkle more of that patented Jim Larranaga defense. Even when Miami didn't have as much talent as it has now, the Hurricanes were a tough team to play because they'd defend you hard for 40 minutes and make you earn it. But it's been years since that was the case, really. More often than not, his teams either at George Mason or Miami were in the top 100 in defensive efficiency. This year, they're sniffing it for the first time since 2018, but aren't quite there yet at 101. And it's a shame, because the offense is top-tier, ranking 12th nationally in offensive efficiency. And Miami is far from awful defensively, so it's not that. They're in the top half of the country nationally in both 3-point and 2-point defense. But the Canes do allow opponents to retrieve 31.8% of their misses, which is not very good. And to see a Larranaga defense ranked in the 100s for fifth straight year just feels wrong. They need a little more defense if they're going to be a contender in league play this year.
NOTRE DAME
Some help from Marcus Freeman. Remember when Notre Dame had a bad start to the season and their well-dressed, likable coach rallied his team to a strong finish? Well, I'd normally be talking about MIke Brey here, but I'm actually talking about Marcus Freeman. Between that and his knack for defense, perhaps he can help the Irish figure out ... something.
Look. My more loyal readers know that I have been a huge fan of Brey and the Irish offense for a long time now. And the offense is still great, and I am still a fan. But when you're fourth in the country in returning Division-I experience and you've got losses to teams ranked 205 and 251 in NET? That's just ... well, it feels like it shouldn't be allowed.
Notre Dame is now ranked 181st in NET and will almost certainly miss the NCAA Tournament, barring a miracle. But hey, maybe Freeman has some tricks up his sleeve that he can share. Without that, Notre Dame is going to be part of the ruining ruiners club. And make no mistake, that will absolutely happen. This team can shoot and will keep you off of the foul line. If they get hot in a game, they can knock off anyone in this league. Just wish they'd brought that same energy for *checks notes* Georgia, the No. 132 team in NET that it lost to by 15 points. Sigh.
PITTSBURGH
DON'T LOOK AT THEM. JUST DON'T. NOT DIRECTLY. When you see that Pittsburgh has won eight of its last nine and started out ACC play 2-0, you might be tempted to say, wow, look at Pitt! I know I was on Twitter the other day, before I was rebuked by Pitt fans who would rather they just stay low and out of sight. It's been so long since they had anything to feel good about. The last time they had a stretch of winning eight of nine was 2020-21 when the Panthers started ACC play 4-1 only to lose 10 of their final 12 games. They had another stretch like that in 2019-20 when they started the season 10-3 and won eight of nine, only to lose 14 of their final 20 games. Kevin Stallings had a 9 of 10 winning spurt in the fall of 2016 before Pitt lost 15 of its final 20 games.
Not since Jaime Dixon has an early season hot streak really carried over, and that's the last time they made the NCAA Tournament too. But one thing almost all of those seasons after Dixon had in common was an awful loss. Pitt doesn't really have one of those, unless you want to count a 4-point loss to VCU on a neutral court. Now, it did get blown out by West Virginia and Michigan earlier in the year, but they have yet to struggle with anyone outside of the Power 5 since, and that's also a difference from years past. Will it mean anything long-term? I can't know that. But I understand why Pitt fans are treating this recent stretch of games like a grenade in their hands. So let's all give them the gift of looking away, for now.
SYRACUSE
A bubble machine. There are two types of impulses in children: one, to make bubbles and watch them float prettily or to quick burst the bubbles before they do. Sometimes, those impulses conflict and a child can't help themselves but to reach out and pop a nice, thick bubble as soon as it's formed. Syracuse is a child that loves the bubble machine. Whether it's letting big, fat bubbles float skyward or popping as many as it can as quickly as it can, Syracuse is going to have a good time. And that's pretty much where we are at this point, right? Syracuse was 3-4 when it played its first ACC game and knocked off a team that could have snuck its way onto the bubble in Notre Dame. That began a 5-game winning streak for the Orange, and they tried to do the same thing with bubbalicious Pittsburgh, but fell two points short. Take heed, ACC teams in search of an NCAA Tournament at-large bid — Syracuse is loose and in the wild and is coming for you. Or just to pop ACC bubbles in crazy succession. Some might float away just out of their reach, but if they can pop it, they will.
VIRGINIA
Rebounds. All of them. Virginia doesn't usually force a lot of turnovers, so seeing that category low-ish nationally is not a cause for concern. And seeing them low on the offensive rebounding percentage side isn't weird either, considering Virginia would rather get back and set its defense than go for a ton of those. But one of the reasons Tony Bennett's defenses have always been upper-echelon is that they don't let opponents get offensive rebounds. Carolina has had a lot of trouble with Virginia in recent years, and that's a big reason why. But the Cavaliers have now given up their two highest offensive rebounding percentages to opponents between this year and last, and this year (27.9%) is only a slight improvement from last (28.8%). I know it's a small thing in the grand scheme, but considering Virginia is 212th in 3-point defense (also very weird!) and not getting its own misses, it's probably better that they do a better job of retrieving the opponent's first miss.
VIRGINIA TECH
Some popcorn for Mike Young. And maybe a few trips to the foul line for good measure. Yes, Virginia's head coach likes popcorn. No, Virginia Tech is not getting to the free-throw line a lot. I'll get to that later. I have something to say:
WHY?
WHY DID YOU LOSE TO BOSTON COLLEGE?!
Boston College has lost to the following teams in Ken Pom's rankings: No. 307 Maine (by 5, at home), No. 185 Tarleton State (by SIXTEEN, neutral site) and No. 315 New Hampshire (in overtime by 3, so, uh, moral victory I guess?). NEBRASKA cleaned their clock by 21 and even (relatively) struggling Villanova beat them by 21. Look, I know playing at Boston College isn't the easiest. Well, how do you think Maine and New Hampshire felt? Seemingly, right at home.
The loss illustrated the Hokies' biggest issue, though: getting to the foul line. BC's one strength is that it's a solid defensive team, and so when shots weren't falling for the Hokies, they needed to take care of the ball (they turned it over on 21.7% of their possessions instead) and get to the foul line. They had nine attempts. NINE. Their free-throw rate is 335th in the country. They usually don't turn it over much and they're a great shooting team, but something has to give here. If Lindenwood (a real team, evidently) and McNeese State are above you, something has gone terribly wrong. Attack the paint, get to the foul line and find a way to make up for it on nights when the shots aren't falling. You're better than this, Hokies. I believe in you.
WAKE FOREST
Some leftover stickem. This might come in handy more for the Deacs than for Louisville because 1. Wake is not a ghastly basketball team and 2. A lot of Wake's turnovers are of the steal variety. Wake loves to play up-tempo, and I get it, but how fast is too fast? Well, when you've turned it over on more than 20% of your possessions in more than half of your games, maybe that fast? Wake has lost the three games this year when it had its highest turnover percentage in spite of posting an effective field goal percentage of over 50% in all three. I think we can all fill in the blanks here. You want to know something even weirder? Wake is 1-3 when its OPPONENTS turn it over on 23.1% or more of THEIR possessions. How is that even possible? Let's not think too hard about it. Be more careful with that basketball, Deacs.
