Brownlow's GIFs: ACC Tournament Wednesday highlighted by de facto play-in game between NC State and Clemson
Posted March 13, 2019 9:40 a.m. EDT
It's Wednesday of the ACC Tournament, and after all of the under .500 teams playing yesterday, we start to get into the games that actually matter, and none more so than NC State's 8-9 matchup against Clemson.
So let's get into the GIFs!
NO. 8 CLEMSON (19-12, 9-9) VS. NO. 9 NC STATE (21-10, 9-9)
Time: 12 p.m.
TV: ESPN/Raycom
#ANALYSIS
Not every bracketologist has this game as a de facto NCAA Tournament play-in game, but suffice it to say that the winner will feel way better about its chances and the loser will feel way worse about theirs. This will qualify as a Quadrant-1 win for both, something both teams desperately need. And the Tigers would certainly like to exorcise some demons after the way it lost to NC State in Raleigh back on January 20. Up by six with 26.5 seconds to go, it was an elusive Quad-1 win in a close game for Clemson (or just close game win in general). NC State exorcised a few demons of its own with a convincing March win, the most convincing of the Kevin Keatts era with a 73-47 road win at Boston College. NC State didn't play all that well in the first game against Clemson - the Wolfpack had its fourth-lowest offensive rebounding percentage and fifth-highest turnover percentage of the year - but they shot well, 15 of 30 from 2 and 9 of 24 from 3, and that carried the day. Clemson, meanwhile, did some things well but turned it over too much and went 0 of 7 from 3. The last time Clemson had failed to make a 3-pointer in a game before that was 7 years before. These are two relatively even-matched things that are going to need to be tough and gritty and all of the cliches you want to use, particularly on the defensive end.
NAMES TO KNOW
Marcquise Reed. I almost picked Elijah Thomas here, especially seeing as NC State has had so much trouble stopping opposing big men lately, and he had 18 points in the first meeting. But it's got to be Clemson's senior guard, the the one who missed four straight free throws with less than 13 seconds left, leaving the door open for NC State's comeback win: two with 13.8 seconds to go, and two with 7.5 seconds remaining. To put that number into perspective, Reed has missed 16 free throws all year in ACC play and a quarter of them came in the final 13.8 seconds of that game alone. He was 89 of 101 (88.1%) on all other ACC free throws he attempted. That is an absurd statistic, but it just goes to show you that Clemson's bad luck in close games really knows no bounds. Reed finished with 19 points in that game on 5 of 17 shooting but added eight rebounds. He struggled at times trying to carry the load for Clemson offensively this season, but he has averaged 23.3 points in Clemson's last three games and scored at least 22 in four of the last five. He also has not missed a free throw in that stretch. He is going to obviously be very eager to redeem himself from the way the NC State game ended, and he's a good enough player to give NC State a lot of problems.
D.J. Funderburk. NC State has really only one big man who can score, and it's Funderburk. When he's on, NC State becomes a much better team offensively, if for no other reason than he can crash the offensive glass and clean up misses. But he's fouled out of five ACC games this year and Clemson was one of them. In fact, NC State has not won a game that he fouled out of since that Clemson game, and he's fouled out of three since. He cannot manage to stay on the court because of his foul issues, but he has managed to become a little more consistent, hitting double figures in scoring in six of the last nine games after scoring a total of 10 points in the four games before that, including just four against Clemson. The Tigers make things really tough around the basket and NC State will need all the rebounding and scoring help it can get.
NARRATIVES
NC State Win:
NC State Loss: Special shoutout to all-everything producer Jonathan Rand, an NC State fan who picked this GIF:
Clemson Win:
Clemson Loss:
PREDICTION
NC State, 73-69. Because when it's a close game ... also, I would have picked Clemson before what NC State did at Boston College.
NO. 12 MIAMI (14-17, 5-13) VS. NO. 5 VIRGINIA TECH (23-7, 12-6)
Time: 2 p.m. (LOL)
TV: ESPN/Raycom
#ANALYSIS
Look, we've been through this with Miami before. This team is good enough to hang with a North Carolina or a Virginia, but bad enough to lose to just about anyone. They just decided not to do that against Wake Forest. They need all of their pieces to play well to have a chance and for the most part, that happened as Anthony Lawrence went off, Dejan Vasiljevic made 3-pointers and Miami overcame a bad day from Chris Lykes. Virginia Tech may have a limited rotation, but they need to have way more go wrong to lose and will be the fresher team.
NARRATIVES
Miami Win:
Miami Loss:
Virginia Tech Win:
Virginia Tech Loss:
PREDICTION
Virginia Tech, 77-65. Miami doesn't have another game left in them.
NO. 15 NOTRE DAME (14-18, 3-15) VS. NO. 7 LOUISVILLE (19-12, 10-8)
Time: 7 p.m.
TV: ESPN2/Raycom
#ANALYSIS
Notre Dame looked like a different version of itself than we'd seen all year in the first half against Georgia Tech, knocking down 7 of its first 10 3-point attempts. Unfortunately for the Irish, the second half happened, and it happened without Nate Laszewski, who had 14 points in the first half. And then Laszewski got hurt and four Notre Dame players played all 20 second-half minutes while another played 17:25 of the 20. That was barely sustainable against Georgia Tech and it certainly won't be against Louisville, a team much deeper and more offensively talented than Georgia Tech.
Louisville and Notre Dame played in the second-to-last game of this season, though, and it was when the Cardinals were in a complete tailspin. It didn't matter. Notre Dame shot 34.6% from 3, which is not bad, but 41.7% from 2 and a ridiculously bad 4 of 14 (28.6%) from the foul line, a plus they usually excel. Louisville did not make 3-pointers but made over 68% of its 2-point tries, rebounded a good amount of its misses, limited turnovers and that was all it needed to.
And now, Notre Dane might end up playing Louisville without two of the players it had in that game - Laszewski and Harvey, leaving the Irish with basically a 5.25-man rotation. I don't say that to insult Chris Doherty, who has been forced into action as a freshman Mike Brey intended to redshirt, but he has literally been used as a rotational body at this point. He played 2:35 of the second half and had one semi-accidental basket.
Notre Dame's second-half collapse some fatigue, but also some of Georgia Tech's switch to a man to man defense. But if the Irish are going to have ostensibly no bench, it's going to be a problem against a Louisville team that easily goes nine deep - and it doesn't matter how well Louisville plays, really.
God bless the Irish for giving me that one fleeting moment where I remembered the things their offense was capable of in that first half against Georgia Tech. It was beautiful to behold.
NARRATIVES
Notre Dame Win:
Notre Dame Loss: Until we meet again, Mike Brey.
Louisville Win: So Louisville is fixed now, right?
Louisville Loss:
PREDICTION
Louisville, 79-63. It was a good run though, Notre Dame.
NO. 14 PITTSBURGH (14-18, 3-15) VS. NO. 6 SYRACUSE (19-12, 10-8)
Time: 9 p.m.
TV: ESPN2/Raycom
#ANALYSIS
Well, just about the only guarantee when these two get together is that it's going to be gross. But Syracuse is still looking for its first ACC Tournament win in the great state of North Carolina. And if they can't get this one, well ... woof. But Pitt is off to its first win streak (is two a streak?) of 2019, and the Panthers have to be feeling really good about themselves. They're limited offensively but they have talent, and that young talent is getting it together at a really good time. That zone is going to be a slog for them, but Pitt's offensive efficiency of 121.2 against BC was the Panthers' best mark since Dec. 20 and the best mark against a Power 5 opponent all year. No matter what happens, the way this season is ending is a great sign for Jeff Capel and company.
NARRATIVES
Pittsburgh Win:
Pittsburgh Loss:
Syracuse Win:
Syracuse Loss:
PREDICTION
Syracuse, 64-57. Gross.
Last week: 11-3 (11-3 ACC)
Overall: 112-41 (102-32 ACC) (1-2 Postseason)
