Brownlow's GIFs: Can UNC finally conquer Kansas?
Posted April 4, 2022 1:02 p.m. EDT
Updated April 4, 2022 1:40 p.m. EDT
New Orleans is a city made for literary endings, and North Carolina's had several here already in its storied history. A skinny freshman with a chip on his shoulder gave a great coach who didn't have a title yet his first. That same legendary coach got his second one that ended up being remembered more for an ill-timed timeout. But never one quite like this, as the Tar Heels have reached the final night of college basketball when just four weeks ago, some had them pegged as the last team in the field. UNC's at-large hopes were not sealed until that win at Duke to end the regular season, a win that in so many ways appeared to jump-start the juggernaut version of UNC we've seen for the last month.
It'll feel literary for Kansas, too, as Bill Self finds himself one of the elder statesmen of the game as legends retire and yet still lacking the additional titles to back that up. Those aren't my words, either. He said on Sunday that he has not won enough titles as the head coach at Kansas. Obviously, he's a great coach and he's not going to get fired and no one wants him to be, but he's got to feel a bit of pressure. His players might, too. Does that pressure become a tension that North Carolina has seemed to feed off of in this NCAA Tournament, thriving in its role as the underdog with nothing to lose?
UNC wouldn't be the first 8-seed to win a national title — that honor belongs to Rollie Massimino and Villanova — but obviously it would be pretty absurd. And it's been awhile! Kentucky made it as an 8 in 2014 and Butler in 2011, but neither won. Kemba Walker and UConn won it in 2014 as a 7-seed instead, and really, UNC's run feels about as improbable as that one did (and started around the same point in their respective seasons, too).
But at this point, would it even matter? North Carolina fans and the team itself have gotten to enjoy this NCAA Tournament run like perhaps no other in its program history. And that is saying something. But every other run, North Carolina dealt with the pressure of expectation, of being the favorite, of being the hunted. They went in as a high seed, not a disrespected underdog with something to prove. And think about how many times in the last few years a North Carolina team that faced several matchup disadvantages beat Duke two out of three times anyway? After the 20-point beating in the first meeting, there is no way the Tar Heel faithful could have dreamed that they'd not only beat Mike Krzyzewski in his final home game, but that they'd have a moment as good or arguably better when they sent him packing forever.
The Kansas part does make it interesting, of course. Self and Kansas have had a lot of success against the Tar Heels in recent years, although this is as close to evenly matched as the teams will have been since the 2008 meeting in the Final Four. The last time UNC beat Kansas was nearly 20 years ago in November 2002, when Matt Doherty's final team shocked Roy Williams' final Kansas team in a massive upset. So even that bit of history is not exactly fond for UNC when it comes to Kansas. While Tar Heel fans might bristle at the recent history, Kansas fans are just as likely to wince when the national titles are listed and they want to add a few more to their collection.
On Sunday during media availability, R.J. Davis and Caleb Love were asked how the team went from being "unwatchable" to what it is today. They did not care for that characterization, and neither did I. The Tar Heels have been many things this year, and the basketball hasn't always been a thing of beauty, but unwatchable? No. They were must-see TV. You never knew what you were going to get out of them on a given night. And so the Tar Heels' Choose Your Own Adventure season concludes in New Orleans tonight. How will this book end? I have no idea. But I'll try to break out my tarot .... GIFs.
NO. 8 NORTH CAROLINA (29-9) VS. NO. 1 KANSAS (33-6)
Time: 9:20 p.m.
TV: TBS
#ANALYSIS
We all understand that North Carolina is the underdog. We all understand why they should be. But we keep doing this with North Carolina! I am just as guilty as anyone. It's hard to reconcile the team we saw earlier in the year with the team we're seeing now sometimes. It's almost like we expect that North Carolina was placed under a spell and soon, their magic will wear off. It ... doesn't seem to be?
At the same time, though, the games are only getting more and more difficult and this one will be the most difficult the Tar Heels have played all year. That is true by the numbers and by the eyeballs. Kansas loves to go at a fast pace, and usually that's good news for Carolina but with their lack of depth especially, it's really not. And Carolina isn't old-school Carolina in terms of its ability in transition on offense or defense, either, although it's good in transition.
Kansas doesn't do anything fancy. The Jayhawks are a solid shooting team (36.1% from 3, 53.8% from 2, 72% from the foul line) that avoids turnovers, gets on the offensive glass and gets to the foul line a decent amount. Defensively, they hold opponents to 30.1% shooting from 3 and 46.7% from 2, but they don't force a lot of turnovers and they're not amazing on the defensive glass. North Carolina is the better shooting team, and that could help. But does UNC have the legs left? That is not an Armando Bacot joke at all. But his ankle injury is a concern. He said he'd have to be without a right leg to not play. He still has it, but how effective can he be? UNC cannot afford to be even one man down in its rotation or have one player struggle if they want to win.
There's been talk that UNC is playing with house money. But that is far more about the fans than the players. This team understands that they may never get to this point again in their careers. Many definitely won't as this is their last go. It's not easy to get to a national title game. While the fans might look at it as gravy either way, which is a rarity that they should enjoy, the players really don't. They'll be happy with what they accomplished if they lose, but make no mistake — they don't want to lose, and they WILL care if they lose.
Anyway, UNC has capitalized all postseason on opponents' collective tightness. To me, that is another area they can potentially exploit. Kansas hasn't played in the title game since 2012 and Bill Self's lone title came in 2008. Even if UNC is an 8-seed in name only, it is still an 8-seed. There is pressure here. Kansas has handled pressure wonderfully so far this postseason, but if it kicks in, watch out.
NAMES TO KNOW
R.J. Davis. This offense has thrived since he took over as the lead guard, and everyone is better for it. Including Davis himself. The New York point guard combines a wonderful blend of toughness, confidence and court savvy, the latter of which just continues to grow. The difference between the North Carolina basketball of the last few years and what we're seeing now IS Davis, because the Tar Heels haven't had a true point guard that makes his teammates better and makes the offense hum in quite some time. Davis is that guy. And he's known when to step up as a scorer, too, picking his spots when his team needs him the most. In Carolina's two games against top-two seeds in this NCAA Tournament, Davis has averaged 24 points. If UNC is going to win, that version of Davis needs to be very much present.
Ochai Agbaji. If you like watching college basketball players stay all four years and progress, boy do I have the story for you. Agbaji is an All-American now after slowly making incremental improvements year after year. He hit a rough patch (for him) earlier in this NCAA Tournament, and during it, Kansas squeaked by Creighton and Providence. But they've won their last two by an average of 15.5 points, and Agbaji has averaged 19.5 points and made EIGHT OF NINE 3-pointers during that stretch. Agbaji's presence also presents UNC with a conundrum: who guards him? Is it Leaky Black, UNC' shutdown defender? If so, then who guards Christian Braun, who shoots nearly 39% from 3 to Agbaji's 41 percent? And then who guards Remy Martin at point guard? I mean, UNC obviously has players to do that in Caleb Love and R.J. Davis, but the point is that it's going to be very taxing on the Tar Heels to shut down all of Kansas' threats, especially with limited depth. And if Agbaji stays as hot as he's been, it's likely too much to overcome.
NARRATIVES
North Carolina Win:
North Carolina Loss:
PREDICTION
North Carolina, 77-71. I never learn my lesson. Do NOT doubt North Carolina. I did, again, on Saturday. And I do again going into this one. But I can't pick against them! How?
