Brownlow's GIFs: Can UNC keep up its season-ruining ways at No. 25 Pitt?

By Lauren Brownlow, WRALSportsFan columnist/reporter

Last week, many seemed surprised that UNC was a favorite against then-undefeated Wake Forest. I was not as surprised. The ACC football season this year, unlike any in recent memory, has become crabs in a bucket. If you're not familiar with how crabs in a bucket behave, basically one of them tries to climb out of the bucket and rather than waiting for their buddy to get out, the other crabs try to climb too and then grab hold of the other crab already climbing and pull it (and themselves) back down into said bucket. If they let one go at a time, they'd all get out. Instead, none of them do.

North Carolina started the season No. 10 in the country. They have since lost to three teams with a combined 10-15 record, and have lost twice to teams that each stand at 3-6 on the season by a combined 33 points. Since then, they beat Miami at home (barely) only for Miami to go on to become the next crab in the bucket, then lost a close one to Notre Dame on the road and beat an undefeated Wake Forest team.

At the beginning of the year, North Carolina was the crab attempting to ascend to the top of the bucket. Now, they're just going to wait for another crab trying to make its way out so that the Tar Heels can grab back hold of it and drag it back down, too.

But the crab can get away if it goes quickly enough. Pitt is trying to climb its way back out of the bucket after Miami dragged it down, and the Panthers are still in the top 25 of the College Football Playoff. Can they climb higher? Can they keep Kenny Pickett's Heisman hopes alive? Or will North Carolina catch them and pull them right back down into the overflowing bucket of #goacc?

Let's get to the (unsurprisingly crab-themed) GIFs!

NORTH CAROLINA (5-4, 3-3 ACC) AT PITTSBURGH (7-2, 4-1 ACC)

Time: 7:30 p.m.
TV: ESPN

#ANALYSIS

Fun fact: Larry Fedora never lost to Pat Narduzzi, but David Cutcliffe has never beaten Narduzzi. It was probably more of a fun fact a few years ago, but still. Remember how I mentioned that UNC was favored last week and that surprised folks? I've also been hearing surprise that the Tar Heels are 6-point underdogs at Pittsburgh. That surprises me a bit less. Mostly because UNC has not won a road game this season. Now to be somewhat fair to the Tar Heels here, two of their three road games have been against ranked teams (or at least, teams that were ranked at the time). But one of them was Georgia Tech, sooooo.

It is pretty wild, though, that last year's UNC team was 3-2 on the road and its last road win as an EMPHATIC 62-26 win at a top-10 Miami team. And the 2019 team went 2-3, but two of the losses were in overtime. One of those was, you guessed it, at Pitt.

But how do you reconcile the poor road performance with the fact that at least offensively, this team hasn't looked like the same team in the last few weeks? Maybe you don't. Defensively it hasn't looked the same either, though, and not always in a good way. But anyway.

My guess is the oddsmakers feel like UNC's defense isn't going to stop Pitt. And with good reason. Pitt is No. 3 in the nation in total offense in terms of yards per game and 10th in yards per play. Although, and this is weird, but UNC has already played the No. 1 and No. 6 teams in total offense and has beaten both (Virginia and Wake Forest). So ... maybe the offense will play better if it knows it has to score a lot?

An important thing to watch in this game will be how Pitt starts. It's ... been an issue for the Panthers this year. Pitt has been outscored in exactly one quarter this year against Power 5 teams or in losses (so throwing Western Michigan into the mix), and it's the first quarter. They've been outscored 71-52 in the first quarter and have not "won" the first quarter in six out of those seven games. Even at lowly Duke last weekend. And in losses, Pitt was outscored 35-17 in the first quarter. But ... uh ... that second quarter. WHEW. Pitt has 126 second-quarter points in those aforementioned seven games, nearly HALF of their entire point total from those games (45.5%). Pitt is *AVERAGING* 18 second-quarter points in those games. Goodness. And it's one of their better defensive quarters as well, holding opponents to 47 points. That's +79 if you're scoring at home.

In the third, Pitt does pretty well too, outscoring opponents 66-40. But it drops back down to 33-31 in the fourth. In two losses, though, Pitt allowed 23 points and scored 27. So just a +4. But they get in a hole early at times, and that would be fine against a lot of teams. I'm not sure it would be fine against North Carolina. UNC's highest-scoring quarters this year vs. Power 5 have been the first (73-41) and fourth (105-64). Although I suppose it *could* be fine if the second-quarter trends continue for both, since UNC has been outscored 100-60 in the second quarter. If you took out the second quarter for UNC, it would have out-scored Power 5 opponents 251-184. And UNC used to be the slow starter of these two teams, but it actually has had its second-best offensive quarter (in terms of points) and by far the best defensive quarter in the first quarter this year (73-41). UNC has closed out strongly as well, but the defense allowing 179 points in the middle two quarters after allowing just 105 in the first and last is less than ideal. So if Pitt gets off to a slow start, UNC has to make sure it can score early and sustain that going into the second quarter. But for UNC, the difference between losses and wins is a bit clearer, and it's actually pretty wild:

1st quarter points scored-allowed in four Power 5 losses: 17-14

1st quarter points scored-allowed in four Power 5 wins: 56-27

2nd quarter points scored-allowed in four Power 5 losses: 13-51

2nd quarter points scored-allowed in four Power 5 wins: 47-49

The third quarter is basically the same in wins vs. losses (UNC outscored 35-42 in losses, narrowly edged opponents in wins 38-37). But the fourth quarter is again where there's a stark contrast: UNC has been outscored 34-26 in its four Power 5 losses compared to outscoring opponents 79-30 in four wins.

Last time these two teams played, Pitt got out to a 24-10 lead and UNC rallied to tie it, but couldn't pull it out in overtime. I'm not a football coach, but I'd suggest NOT going down 24-10 might be ideal if you'd like to win this game and you're North Carolina. Or if you're Pitt, really. But.

Red-zone scoring is also something to watch, although both teams are plenty capable of scoring OUTSIDE the red zone. Neither team can afford to leave points on the table. We know UNC's defense is .... um .... struggling a bit this year. But Pitt's defense can be a bit feast or famine. The Panthers are 38th nationally vs. FBS teams in yards per play allowed, but they also will give up some big plays. And penalties. And while Pitt's defensive numbers are respectable, the Panthers' defense has faced one top-25 offense in yards per play this year (No. 25 Tennessee) and two ranked 103rd or worse. UNC is No. 7, and the offense looks better than it has all year in the last few weeks. Pitt will try to confuse Sam Howell and get pressure on him, but UNC should be able to move the ball. Either team that wins this one will have to make it a shootout.

Or maybe these two teams will inexplicably play like a 13-10 game out of completely nowhere.

THIS GUY

Antoine Green. Hey, wait. That name doesn't look like Sam Howell's! But Green's emergence the last few games especially has been a big reason that the Tar Heels' offense suddenly looks far more like the one we saw last year. Josh Downs has been great all year, but Howell and the offense has desperately needed help from other pass-catchers, particularly on the outside. In the last two games alone, Green has 11 catches for 166 yards and two touchdowns. In UNC's first seven games, he caught 11 passes for 253 yards and one touchdown. Wake Forest was the first team all year to slow down Downs, and Pitt is no doubt going to key on him. Green and other Tar Heel pass-catchers have to make them pay, or else UNC won't be able to move the ball. And good on Green, whose emergence on the outside has not only been super important to his own team, but has also done it after overcoming a terrible injury. Do not look it up (trust me), but as a 4-star promising freshman in 2018, he suffered a ghastly broken leg blocking downfield and had to be carted off. He was going through all that rehab as Mack Brown arrived in Chapel Hill, and he just kept his head down and worked until he got back into the position he's in now. He was back in time for spring practice that year, but overcoming the mental part is a lot and he's had better receivers in front of him the previous two seasons. Now, he can end this season playing the best football of his career if he keeps this up.

HERE'S A GUY

Kenny Pickett. Confession: I love Kenny Pickett, and have for a long time. I know I wrote this last week. But I'm writing it again. You know who I'm pretty sure does *not* love Pickett, at least not this week? Jay Bateman and UNC's defense, as Pickett is one of those dual-threat quarterbacks that has given the Tar Heels so much trouble. Pickett has completed nearly 69% of his passes this year, averaging 9.3 yards per attempt and has 29 touchdowns to three interceptions (five total turnovers all season). He's also run for 242 yards and four more touchdowns. So that's 33 touchdowns to five turnovers, if you're scoring at home. The Duke game was a bit of a bounce-back for Pickett, who had just 185 yards rushing all year (a low total for him) leading up to it. No doubt he'll use his legs a bit against UNC, too. Pickett has never been the cause of Pitt's losses, and he's often been the biggest reason for some of their wins. But it's definitely worth noting that UNC's defense faced a quarterback that had not turned it over a ton last week and got him to do just that. (Which is good since it couldn't stop him otherwise, but whatever.) And it's also worth noting that Pickett began the season with 26 touchdowns to four total turnovers in Pitt's first seven games and has seven total touchdowns to three turnovers in the last two games. So who knows? But UNC can't let him go nuts. Two years ago in Pittsburgh on yet another Thursday night, Pickett completed 25 of 41 passes for 359 yards and a score, adding 12 rushing attempts for 53 yards and two more touchdowns.

NARRATIVES

North Carolina Win:

North Carolina Loss: PItt is the crab that said "NOT TODAY"

PREDICTION

Pittsburgh, 41-30. I don't trust either of these two teams, to be perfectly clear. But I definitely don't trust UNC on the road right now.