Brownlow's GIFs: Coach K and Duke playing for one more trip to the Sweet 16 when they face Michigan State
Posted March 20, 2022 5:14 p.m. EDT
It all comes down to this: Duke comes into this game having played shakily over the last few weeks, and needing to win this game to keep Mike Krzyzewski's career alive, against a Michigan State team that is always at its best this time of year.
The last time they played each other in the NCAA Tournament, Michigan State shocked the world and sent top-seed Duke and Zion Williamson packing back in 2019. Can Tom Izzo and Sparty do it again, in this moment, in an arena that will likely be more pro-Duke? They did already contend with a pro-Davidson arena in Round 1, but still.
And did Duke's hard-fought but comfortable win over Cal State Fullerton do enough to get the Blue Devils' confidence where it was before? We'll find out!
Let's get to those GIFs, shall we?
NO. 7 MICHIGAN STATE (23-12) VS. NO. 2 DUKE (29-6)
Time: 5:15 p.m.
TV: CBS
#ANALYSIS
Michigan State has eight players averaging between 6.4 and 11.4 points per game, and all play between 14.4 and 28.7 minutes per game. The Spartans are deep, and you never know who's going to step up for them on a given night. That's been part of the problem for Sparty this year, of course, as you can see how the inconsistency would work the other way. But it does mean the range of outcomes are vast, and they include the potential to upset Duke. Michigan State has at times swung wildly between good and bad games shooting, but the Spartans have posted an effective field goal percentage of 50% or better in six of the last eight games.
It sounds overly simplistic to say Duke will have to shoot well to win. But it's true. Michigan State is 6-10 when it allows opponents to have an effective field goal percentage of 50% or better and 17-2 when it holds opponents below that mark. One of the six wins was, of course, over Davidson. Michigan State is 15-3 when holding opponents below 31% from the 3-point line and 8-9 when it allows better than that. Duke is 7-3 when it shoots below 31% from 3 and 22-3 when it shoots better than that. Duke needed what happened against Cal State Fullerton badly as the Blue Devils hit 9 of 22 from 3 after having made just 20 of 71 in the previous three games combined.
But on the Duke side of things, the Blue Devils have not defended at a high level in what feels like awhile, even before the loss to UNC. Duke held 13 of its first 19 opponents to one of its nine worst offensive performances of the year, capped off by its spectacular 87-67 win at UNC. But since that first matchup with the Tar Heels, in the last 13 games, Duke has done that just once. All five of Duke's worst defensive performances this year have come in the last month.
It's worth noting that Duke has been good enough on offense during that stretch, and at times it has been enough to win. But whether it be missed shots, turnovers or both, Duke is going to have to be efficient offensively against the Spartans while playing much better defense. Duke can certainly do it. We have seen them do it. But Michigan State is not going to back down. Duke will have to find some of the toughness that allowed it to win a bunch of road games this year and channel it, even if the crowd will be largely in their favor.
NAMES TO KNOW
AJ Hoggard. Michigan State often, but not always, goes as its sophomore point guard does. And in the last five games, he has 24 assists to just five turnovers after struggling with turnovers all year. He had just two assists two two turnovers in the win over Davidson, but when the Spartans needed a playmaker off the dribble, he delivered. Hoggard had 14 points on 6 of 9 shooting and was 2 of 4 from the foul line. When Duke has lost this season, it's often been because a guard has been able to break them down. Hoggard will have to be that guy for Sparty to have a chance.
Mark Williams. Michigan State does not have a lot of size. And they're likely going to concentrate a lot of defensive attention on Paolo Banchero. Being the gifted passer that he is, particularly on the inside, Banchero is likely going to find his teammate Williams open quite a bit. In Duke's last five games, Williams has played 30 minutes or more five times this season, and Duke is 4-1 in those games. If he gets Michigan State's lone seven-footer Marcus Bingham in foul trouble, things could get dire for Sparty. It could be a double-edged sword for Williams, though, as Michigan State could be forced to go small and then their 5-man will be a player that can shoot 3s and go out on the perimeter. That in and of itself could take Williams out of the game if he struggles to defend out there or if they take him away from the basket.
NARRATIVES
Duke Win:
Duke Loss:
PREDICTION
Duke, 74-67. I know Duke has looked tight lately. It will likely look tight again. But they're more talented than Michigan State, and the Fullerton win might have knocked out a few of the proverbial cobwebs. It might be to a point where Duke is past the pressure of Coach K's last season and can finally just play. Or, it might ... not.
