Brownlow's GIFs: The ACC-Big Ten Challenge marks the unofficial start of basketball season
Posted November 30, 2021 12:49 p.m. EST
Do you feel like you have a lot of college basketball to catch up on? I get it. College football has been crazy enough as it is. The older I get, the less I feel that I can multitask. And every year, my personal start to really getting into college basketball becomes not the actual start date, but instead this one: the ACC-Big Ten Challenge.
The Thanksgiving leftovers are still being nibbled upon, but Christmas is coming and in January, so is conference play. But the ACC-Big Ten Challenge signals the end of the regular season in college football and the beginning of significant college basketball games. Buckle up.
And in typical ACC fashion, the league is already down 2-0.
No. 1 Duke will start things off locally by traveling to Ohio State tonight, a team that was ranked until this week. Then on Wednesday, NC State will host Nebraska and UNC will host No. 24 Michigan.
Let's get to the GIFs and as per tradition, said GIFs will be mascot-related.
TUESDAY
NO. 1 DUKE (7-2) AT OHIO STATE (4-2)
Time: 9:30 p.m.
TV: ESPN
#ANALYSIS
These types of things don't always matter in college basketball, but what struck me upon a quick glance at Ohio State's stats this year was ... how small they are. The Buckeyes have just three players 6-8 or taller that see time in the rotation (not very much time at that) and just one taller than 6-8. Duke not only has three main rotation players at least that tall, but two of those players also happen to be among their best in Paolo Banchero and Mark Williams. Weirdly, that size hasn't meant Duke is dominant on the offensive or defensive glass so far. But the lack of size for Ohio State has meant that defensive rebounding has been an issue as the Buckeyes are 310th nationally in that category.
Size isn't the only problem for Ohio State right now. The Buckeyes are banged up and inexperienced, which is not an ideal combination. They started the season with a narrow escape of Akron at home, then beat Niagara by 10 before blowing out Bowling Green, then losing to a good Xavier team, edging Seton Hall and losing a close one to Florida. They're scrappy and will fight. But the question is, do they have the tools to beat Duke?
One thing working in the Buckeyes' favor is their 3-point shooting. Against this Duke team with its size and shot-blocking ability, you have to be able to make 3s. Gonzaga was just 6 of 21 from 3, one of the only things the Zags did poorly in that classic game between two of the nation's best teams. The other thing that they did poorly, and that a lot of teams have struggled with against Duke's size and athleticism? Turned it over too much (21.5% of their possessions). Ohio State turned it over on 26.1% of its possessions in the loss to Florida and hit just 5 of 19 3-pointers. But the rest of the season, Ohio State had gone 45 of 115 from beyond the arc (39.1%). The Buckeyes would have to hit a ton of 3-pointers and take really good care of the ball, and maybe get Duke's bigs in foul trouble? Other than that, should be fine!
NAMES TO KNOW
Mark Williams. I am not sure if Duke's springy sophomore center has a comparable in other sports, but the best one I can think of is a third-down pass rusher. His 29 minutes against Gonzaga were his most this season (he usually sees 18-22) and he made the most of them, making every single one of his eight two-point attempts and blocking six shots against one of the best offensive teams in the country. Now, he and Paolo Banchero (and Theo John) will have to slow down E.J. Liddell (we'll get to him shortly) while avoiding foul trouble. The last part is the big part as Williams did pick up four fouls in his 29 minutes against the Zags, but Williams has the No. 7 block percentage in the country and has mostly avoided too much foul trouble. If he can get in there and do that without fouling while also providing Duke a spark on both ends, it's tough to imagine Ohio State having enough.
E.J. LIddell. Yes, Ohio State's star forward has heard about Duke's size.
The 6-7 forward is the heart and soul of this Buckeye team, and it's hard to find a flaw in his game. He's averaging 22.5 points on 56% shooting, adding 6.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 3.8 blocks. He's also shooting nearly 41% from the 3-point line. He's gotten to the free-throw line 10 or more times in three of Ohio State's six games this season. In the last three games alone — all against teams that either are or were recently ranked — he's averaged 22.7 points. The only obvious issue he's had is that opponents key in on him and he has eight turnovers in the last three games (16 overall in six games). He's fouled out just once this year (in the 1-point win over Akron), and Duke will undoubtedly go at him on both ends to take him out of the game. Liddell will have his hands full, literally, in this one.
NARRATIVES
Duke Win:
Duke Loss:
PREDICTION
Duke, 89-72.
WEDNESDAY
NEBRASKA (5-2) AT N.C. STATE (5-1)
Time: 7:15 p.m.
TV: ESPNU
#ANALYSIS
I'm sure NC State fans will roll their eyes when they read this, but they are about to face a team that dies and dies by the 3-pointer. No, seriously. Nebraska is 297th nationally in 3-point percentage (28.4%) and 242nd in 3-point defense (allowing 35.1%). Teams are scoring 44.5% of their points against Nebraska from the 3-point line, which is the fourth-highest mark nationally. The Cornhuskers started the season 1-2 with a home loss to Western Illinois (welp) and an eight-point loss to Creighton (not bad). Since, their best win is by 13 points at home against South Dakota. They also struggled with Tennessee State at home. That's not to say that NC State should win going away, of course, but it is a much more manageable matchup for the Wolfpack in this event than a lot of others could have been.
There's been a lot of hand-wringing about NC State this year, and I get it. But losing your best player mere minutes into the season is not ideal. And NC State has done a good job offensively overall, avoiding turnovers and getting to the free-throw line regularly. The defense ... could use some work. But you've got to score points to win! Nebraska does have the No. 1 free-throw "defense" in the country, though, if you're into that kind of thing.
NAMES TO KNOW
Bryce McGowens. The 5-star freshman has lived up to his billing so far for the Cornhuskers, averaging 16.7 points, nearly 7 rebounds and 2.3 assists so far. He thought he was going to Nebraska to play with his brother, former Pitt guard Trey McGowens, but the older McGowens is out for the year with a foot injury. The 6-7 freshman has only stepped it up in his absence, though, dishing out 15 assists in the last four games and adding 32 rebounds and 58 points in the last three. NC State doesn't have a ton of size, and McGowens could be a load for them to handle.
Dereon Seabron. The redshirt sophomore ended last season on a high note for NC State, but that doesn't always transfer. It has, though, and it's a good thing Seabron has taken his game to an even higher level. Seabron has double figures in every game this year and has also grabbed at least seven rebounds in every game, adding 16 steals and 19 assists. The only thing Seabron hasn't done well so far this year is shoot 3-pointers (1 of 9), but he's shooting so well from inside the arc (67.2%) that it hasn't really mattered. Without Manny Bates and with some of the younger players for NC State still finding their way, it's critical that Seabron continue to play at the level he has if NC State is going to win games like this one.
NARRATIVES
NC State Win:
NC State Loss:
PREDICTION
NC State, 77-69.
NO. 24 MICHIGAN (4-2) AT NORTH CAROLINA (4-2)
Time: 9:15 p.m.
TV: ESPN
#ANALYSIS
I got an alert on my phone on Monday night that Gonzaga had "struggled" to beat Tarleton State. I wondered where I heard that name, and then I realized it was from when Michigan had beaten Tarleton State by only 11 points after having been blown out by Arizona. And Tarleton State is 182nd in Ken Pom! I was this year old when I knew Tarleton State was an actual college.
Anyway, Michigan hasn't played since and will have had a week off. North Carolina, meanwhile, has had eight days off since beating UNC-Asheville at home and having lost both of its games in Connecticut (to ranked teams, but still). The good news for UNC is that its offense looks significantly better than last year's up and down offense. The bad news? Well, UNC's defense is ... real bad. It is 356th nationally in defensive turnover percentage, which would be fine if it weren't allowing teams to shoot 51.2% from 2 and 33.1% from 3. And if UNC weren't still a touch too turnover-prone itself. Michigan has been uncharacteristically turnover-prone, though, ranking 272nd in that category offensively. So we'll see.
These teams faced off two years ago in the Bahamas, and the game was still close at halftime before Michigan went on a 21-4 run after the half that all but sealed it in spite of a 26-13 run for UNC in the final 10 minutes. Three-pointers were the big difference in that game as UNC was just 2 of 13 and Michigan was 11 of 26. UNC is 13th nationally this year in 3-point shooting but Michigan is 17th in 3-point defense, so that will be an interesting battle. And weirdly, Michigan shoots just 29.1% from beyond the arc. It's honestly super strange to see a Michigan team not shoot well from 3. But if that continues, it should give North Carolina a chance. I'd still suggest that they actually try to attempt to defend said 3-point attempts, though.
UNC will also need to keep Michigan off the offensive boards. The Tar Heels aren't the dominant offensive rebounding team they usually are, but they've been good at keeping opponents off the glass on the other end. Michigan has gotten its own misses quite well, though, and UNC has to make sure that doesn't happen. UNC has a hard enough time defending on first shots.
NAMES TO KNOW
Eli Brooks. The ultimate super senior, Brooks has now been at Michigan since the fall of 2017 and the 6-1 senior combo guard has been by far the most efficient Wolverine offensively. While Michigan as a whole isn't a great 3-point shooting team, Brooks himself is, making 42.9% of his attempts from 3. And he's shootnig nearly 56% from inside the arc, plus almost 91% from the foul line, a place he gets pretty regularly. UNC has struggled to stop the dribble all season and Brooks is going to be a challenge to defend. He last faced the Tar Heels two years ago in the Bahamas, where he had 24 points on 9 of 14 shooting, adding five rebounds and a steal in 39 minutes.
Caleb Love. The Caleb Love Rollercoaster of a season ago has really become more of a carousel ride, I guess, bobbing up and down gently as opposed to high highs and low lows with a few vomit-inducing loops mixed in. Last year's UNC team was inconsistent offensively and turned it over too much. So was Love. This year's team has cut down on turnovers and is shooting much better. And so is Love. He's averaging 15.2 points, 3.7 rebounds and 4.2 assists so far, and while he's only shooting 43.1%, it's important and noteworthy how much he's cut down on his turnovers. And he has settled in as a better distributor too. His former head coach Roy Williams used to say he could be one of the best defensive guards in the ACC. That has not happened yet, and UNC's defense is far from where it should be. Like a lot of things in college basketball, it all starts with the point guard. If he plays well, UNC wins. If he doesn't, they don't. Against good teams for UNC this year, it might just be that simple.
NARRATIVES
North Carolina Win:
North Carolina Loss:
PREDICTION
UNC, 81-73. I don't know why. I just have a feeling. I also think this matchup is better for UNC (plus the home game part of it). I think the week off will have done the Tar Heels some good.
