Lauren Brownlow

Brownlow's GIFs: This national title match-up is nothing to complain about

Posted April 8, 2019 1:33 p.m. EDT
Updated April 8, 2019 2:44 p.m. EDT

Demons almost entirely cast aside, Virginia will be looking to shut up everyone forever about their team by winning their first national title. Oh, and Texas Tech is here too. I'm kidding! Guys, as I will get to, the Red Raiders? They did not get here by accident and they have the potential to cause Virginia a lot of problems.

So let's get straight to the GIFs, shall we? I wouldn't want to...waste too much of the shot clock in getting into it, just for you simpletons out there who can't handle a little ball-screen continuity offense late into the shot clock.

NO. 1 VIRGINIA (34-3) VS. NO. 3 TEXAS TECH (31-6)

Time: 9:20 p.m.
TV: CBS

#ANALYSIS

Hello. Let me introduce you to Texas Tech's defense.

The Red Raiders have an actual (sort of) defensive coordinator on staff in assistant Mike Adams, and they now have the best defensive efficiency of any team since Ken Pomeroy started charting stats. Ever. Like, the best. Since 2002.

They hold opponents to 29.3% from 3 (9th-best nationally), 41.8% from 2 (2nd-best) and register a block on 15.6% of opponents' 2-point misses, which is 5th-highest. They're also 11th in defensive turnover percentage. Most teams sacrifice some of one for the other, but the Red Raiders don't have to. They're aggressive and unrelenting and difficult to figure out.

They do give up a pretty high free-throw rate (270th in that) and opposing offensive rebounding percentage (191st), but those aren't things Virginia does all that well anyway - the Cavaliers are 101st in OR% and 281st in offensive free-throw rate. They just don't prioritize those things as much offensively as they do getting the kinds of shots they want and taking care of the ball. Those are precisely the types of things Texas Tech will want to make sure do NOT happen for Virginia.

A big factor in this game will be the health of St. John's grad transfer and shot-blocker extraordinaire, Tariq Owens. At 6-10, he's the tallest player in the rotation and he has helped make opponents' lives a nightmare around the basket. But he sprained his ankle badly against Michigan State.

And look - even though this is being billed as a defensive battle, Virginia...has not been at its best on that end of the court throughout the NCAA Tournament. It hasn't been bad, obviously! Purdue and Auburn are good offensive teams. But Texas Tech has faced even better offensive teams and shut them down. Virginia has too, though - just not in the Tournament so far. The last top-50 offense in raw offensive efficiency that UVa shut down was NC State, holding the Wolfpack to its second-worst offensive performance of the year in the ACC Tournament. It held top offenses like Virginia Tech and North Carolina in check as well, but Duke got what it wanted, and so did Purdue. Auburn was somewhere in the middle:

Texas Tech, as good as they are defensively, are just 72nd in raw offensive efficiency. The Red Raiders are 66th in 3-point shooting nationally (36.6%) and 69th in 2-point shooting (52.8%), which is solid. But they're 138th in turnover percentage and don't do all that well in getting to the line or getting on the offensive boards. But all their offense has to be is good enough when the defense has been at this high a level, and that defense is so good that the only hurdle Texas Tech has had to clear to ensure a win is going over 99.7 in offense efficiency. That's ... pretty low (for the sake of comparison, North Carolina was below 99.7 just three times all season). Texas Tech was undefeated when it cleared that relatively low bar on offense and 6-6 when it didn't, including a close loss to Duke, a team it held - WITH Zion Williamson - to its second-worst offensive efficiency of the season.

So yes, Virginia is going to have a tough time scoring. But Texas Tech is here because it has hit 18 of 46 3-pointers in its last two games too, cutting its turnovers to a minimal rate and shooting at least 50% from inside the arc in three of five NCAA Tournament games. Texas Tech is at its most vulnerable when turning it over, and if Virginia can't be disruptive on defense, it's going to have an extremely long night.

NAMES TO KNOW

Ty Jerome. If the sequence when Jerome went out with four fouls wasn't enough to convince you of his importance to this Virginia team, then I don't know what is. But if you need additional evidence? At the 4:32 mark, Virginia was up by 9 - largely due to Jerome - and he picked up his fourth foul. Tony Bennett decides to put him on the bench. It is not even two minutes later before Auburn has made two of its four shot attempts, retrieved both missed shots (it had just three offensive rebounds in the second half and both came in this sequence) and made 2 of 3 3-pointers. Virginia missed its only shot attempt and had one turnover. Jerome missed shots late too, but overall he finished the game leading his team in scoring (21 points), rebounding (nine) and assists (six). And in fouls (four), but who's counting? After a head-scratchingly bad ACC Tournament, Jerome has finally gotten back into regular-season form for the Cavaliers. And it's at the best possible time. They need him to keep his head, avoid fouls (especially frustration fouls), and keep his hot shooting from 3. But this version of Jerome is the one the Cavaliers have to have to win.

Jarrett Culver. Texas Tech is here because other players not named Culver have played well. But let's not get cute. He's the Red Raiders' best player and one of the best players in the country. Part of it is his versatility - he's a guard at 6-6, but he's an undersized 4-man as well, and he leads Texas Tech not only in points but also in rebounds. The sophomore dishes out assists as well and draws an absurd amount of fouls. In the last two games, he's shot overall just 8 of 31 from the field but has averaged 14.5 points by virtue of going 10 of 14 from the foul line. He was spectacular against Duke, scoring 25 of his team's 58 points on 9 of 21 shooting (although he did have six turnovers).

And oddly, Texas Tech has done it without him at his best. He's not been a great 3-point shooter this year anyway - just 31.6%, after 38.2% a year ago - but he's been in a particularly bad slump as of late, making just 7 of 31 from 3 in the entire postseason so far in six games. In this game, he's going to be a part of one of the most intriguing match-ups in the Tournament as Virginia's do-everything defender and lottery pick De'Andre Hunter is likely to draw the assignment. Hunter has been as versatile defensively for Virginia as Culver has been offensively, and Hunter has given nightmares to a ton of opposing offensive players from point guards to power forwards. Can he do it again?

NARRATIVES

Virginia Win:

crazy celebration

how do you like me now

Virginia Loss:

you blew it

i'll come back to you

PREDICTION

Virginia, Not Enough Points For You Jerks to Texas Tech, Fewer Points Still.

I do have some pause about this pick - Texas Tech is just so good on defense. But I also think the Cavaliers haven't been as good as they're capable of being on either end of the court.

Last week: 1-0 (1-0 Postseason)
Overall: 135-45 (102-32) (24-6 Postseason)

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