Brownlow's GIFs: Throw out the records when UNC and NC State get together
Posted February 25, 2022 5:11 p.m. EST
Updated February 25, 2022 6:40 p.m. EST
The second meeting between UNC and NC State will not be similar to the first in many ways. Roy Williams will not be there. He would not have been honored at halftime if he had been there. And NC State will not not coming off of a stretch of minor success in a season that has been mired with injuries and comebacks falling short.
Some things will stay the same, though. UNC was on the bubble then and is still. NC State was already out of the NCAA Tournament conversation and obviously still is, just looking to salvage some semblance of goodness out of this season. It's a strange game in that if NC State were to win it, it wouldn't change opinions about Kevin Keatts necessarily. But it would make everyone involved, including his own team, have a lot more to feel good about. The Wolfpack has nothing to lose.
Losing this game won't knock the Tar Heels out of the NCAA Tournament. But it would interrupt their positive momentum on this two-game winning streak, and it would give their doubters even more ammunition.
It won't be the same without Roy there. I know State fans secretly feel the same way. Come on.
Let's get to the GIFs!
NORTH CAROLINA (20-8, 12-5 ACC) AT N.C. STATE (11-17, 4-13 ACC)
Time: 2 p.m.
TV: ESPN
#ANALYSIS
I could pretend that based upon what has happened in previous games or even in the one previous meeting between these two that I can safely predict what WILL happen. That feels like a fool's errand, and for both teams.
It's been pretty simple for NC State: their offense has been fine, the defense is terrible (especially on the interior) and now their offense is starting to hit the skids while the defense isn't improving. But at least the Wolfpack's narrative is a generally coherent one: injuries hit early and often, the mental and physical toll has been too much and confidence is down.
UNC's narrative has not been as coherent. Every time it feels like they are turning a corner, it was a trick and they're not. It is worth pointing out that after starting out 2-3 on the road in ACC play, Carolina has now won three in a row outside the Smith Center.
This game will come down to two things, largely: 3-point shooting and rebounding. If NC State hits a ton of 3s, North Carolina doesn't, and NC State retrieves what few misses it does have but doesn't let UNC do the same, they'll have a chance and could even win. If it does not do those things, it will not win.
NAMES TO KNOW
Brady Manek. Yes, I know that this should be Caleb Love since how he plays usually determines whether or not UNC wins. But Manek has quietly been arguably the most impactful transfer in the Triangle this year. Were it not for his former Oklahoma teammate Alondes Williams transferring to Wake Forest and putting up insane numbers, he'd be considered among the top of ACC transfers.
Manek has turned into a consistent presence for the Tar Heels, scoring at least 11 points in seven straight games. He's a good shooter from 2 and 3 and has a great feel for the offensive game. He's not the best defender, but he's not the worst either. It could be an issue as he'll have to chase around a smaller Wolfpack player on the perimeter, but he usually scores enough to make up for the points that he allows. He had 17 in the last meeting with NC State and was 5 of 7 from 3.
Dereon Seabron. NC State's sophomore guard has usually had to score, and score a lot, for NC State to have a chance. But since late January, Seabron has hit a bit of a wall. After scoring 20 or more in eight of NC State's first 16 games he's done it just three times in the last 11. One of those 11 games was at North Carolina, when he had just two points on 1 of 6 shooting, just three rebounds (tying a season low) and two turnovers. Jericole Hellems and Terquavion Smith played very well from a scoring perspective in the first meeting against UNC, but the Wolfpack was neve really close. They have no chance if Seabron can't figure out a way to get going.
NARRATIVES
North Carolina Win:
North Carolina Loss:
NC State Win:
NC State Loss:
PREDICTION
North Carolina, 80-69.