Brownlow's GIFs: Top-16 Atlantic Division showdown between Wake and NC State highlights the weekend

By Lauren Brownlow, WRALSportsFan columnist/reporter

Just like we all expected at the beginning of the year, No. 16 NC State at No. 12 Wake Forest is the biggest game of the ACC season so far. NC State will have two more games after the Wake Forest game, and while both will technically be games the Wolfpack could lose, both are at home, which helps. This game will be Wake Forest's last home game. Their final two are at Clemson and at Boston College. In spite of Clemson's struggles, would YOU want to play Clemson right now? I mean, I suppose if the alternative was playing them last year, sure. But probably not. So even if NC State loses this game and thus the head-to-head tiebreaker in the Atlantic Division race, it could still catch Wake Forest if it wins out. Technically. But it would need Wake to lose out. Which COULD happen, but. You don't want it to come to that if you're NC State. And if you're Wake Forest, considering what you have left versus what NC State has left, you absolutely have to have this game. Even if Wake were to win out after losing to the Wolfpack, it would need NC State to lose as well. Far from a given.

Then, um, also, Duke and Virginia Tech play. So let's get to the GIFs!

DUKE (3-6, 0-5 ACC) AT VIRGINIA TECH (4-5, 2-3 ACC)

Time: 3:30 p.m.
TV: ACC Network

#ANALYSIS

Ah yes, the classic and not at all depressing matchup between coaches that likely will not be at their respective schools much longer. Both of these teams did show that they still have a pulse last week, though. Duke actually led Pittsburgh for a time, which is more than North Carolina can say! And Virginia Tech managed to beat Georgia Tech, which is also more than North Carolina can say. This game features the somewhat sad matchup of an impotent Virginia Tech offense against a terrible Duke defense. Something's gotta give! Maybe both will! Who can say? Duke's offense at least showed signs of life last week, but the Virginia Tech defense is likely good enough to keep Duke in check and I mean, if Virginia Tech can't score against *this* defense? You probably don't need to let Justin Fuente get on the bus. If they even take a bus, since it's at Virginia Tech. Whatever. Let's just keep this moving.

THIS GUY

Riley Leonard. Gunnar Holmberg suffered an upper body injury against Pittsburgh and his status is up in the air. Leonard replaced him, and the freshman quarterback may get a lot of action on Saturday regardless of if Holmberg can go. Leonard has completed 16 of 31 passes for 189 yards (51.6%), averaging 6.1 yards per attempt and throwing for one touchdown and one interception. He has also rushed for 88 yards on 23 attempts and another score. The dual-threat quarterback may get his chance to show what he can do for whatever the rest of this season and next season brings for both he and this Duke program.

HERE'S A GUY

Malachi Thomas. Virginia Tech's entire offense has become sad, but freshman running back Malachi Thomas has at least given Hokie nation something to feel good about the last few weeks. Thomas had just 11 carries for 48 yards in Tech's first six games this year, but he has 59 for 324 in the last three games and three touchdowns. Perhaps his most impressive outing was against Syracuse's tough defense when he piled up 151 yards. He has yet to catch a pass this year, which is somewhat weird for a running back but maybe that's a wrinkle we see this week. Or maybe Virginia Tech won't have to worry about it since Duke's running defense has been so bad.

NARRATIVES

Duke Win:

Duke Loss:

PREDICTION

Virginia Tech, 23-6. Gross.

NO. 16 N.C. STATE (7-2, 4-1 ACC) AT NO. 12 WAKE FOREST (8-1, 5-0 ACC)

Time: 7:30 p.m.
TV: ACC Network

#ANALYSIS

We know why this game is important, obviously. But how do these two teams match up? Back when NC State was about to play Louisville, I was concerned about how the Wolfpack defense would hold up with the injuries it had suffered and facing the best offense it had seen. It held up incredibly well. But after facing just two top-50 offenses this season so far, NC State will now play three such offenses in the final three games. And this one will pit the Wolfpack against the top offense it has seen, and will see, in Wake Forest's — No. 9 nationally in yards per play. NC State's losses have two important things in common: failure to convert in the red zone (if and when it got to the red zone) and trouble on third down. NC State's two worst third-down conversion percentages came in its two losses. And in the red zone, they couldn't cash in. We know NC State's offense can move the ball. And Wake's defense is ... uh, susceptible to surrendering yards. But this game is going to come down to two important things: avoiding mistakes and running the football.

Wake is 110th nationally in rushing defense, and that will be the worst rush defense NC State has seen this year. If there's a time to get the run game going, it's probably now. But NC State is 75th nationally in rushing offense and to say the run game has stagnated lately might be a bit of an understatement. NC State has run the ball 61 times for 130 yards in the last two games combined. And that came against teams that rank 65th and 53rd in rush defense, respectively. Obviously that is better than Wake Forest. But it's not like it's a shut-down run defense either. It's a concern. NC State's rush defense has been very good, and Wake can run the ball but they're obviously primarily a passing team. With Wake Forest potentially down running back Christian Beal-Smith in this game, it becomes even more imperative for NC State to shut down Wake's rushing attack and hope it can contain Wake's potent passing game.

And obviously, both of these teams have to avoid hurting themselves. I don't mean literally. Although that too. But Wake Forest got uncharacteristically sloppy in its first loss of the year at UNC last week, committing a season-high 11 penalties for 119 yards. And many of them were of the dumb and/or avoidable variety. Wake hadn't had more than eight penalties all season and had more than six just once before that game, but that game alone made them fall to 65th nationally in penalty yards per game. That cannot happen this weekend to the Deacs. NC State ranks 75th in penalties this season and it's been an issue at times how costly those penalties are, especially on defense. It hasn't really cost them games yet — they had a combined 12 penalties in two losses — but against a team that usually avoids hurting themselves as much as Wake, it could.

Neither of these teams turn it over much, either. Wake Forest is tied for seventh nationally in turnover margin at +9, turning it over just nine times and forcing 18. But the UNC loss was the first time Wake had a negative turnover margin all year, gaining one turnover and losing two. NC State is a +4 in turnover margin on the season in spite of only gaining 11 turnovers, and that's because the offense has only committed seven turnovers in nine games, which is excellent. But ideally, you'd like to get some of those if you're NC State. The defense has only forced two turnovers in the last three games, but fortunately for them, the offense has only committed one. They'll need to keep taking great care of the football because giving Wake any extra opportunities will be a recipe for disaster.

THIS GUY

Tanner Ingle. Since losing Isaiah Moore against Miami, NC State's senior safety has stepped up his play considerably, totaling 23 tackles over the last two games. And he and the rest of the young Wolfpack secondary will have its hands incredibly full with the best wide receiving corps it has seen all year. Wake has three receivers with at least 26 catches and five with at least 18. All five average at least 11 yards per catch. Four have at least three touchdowns. All can and have made extremely difficult catches. Ingle is talented, and his passion for the game is undeniable. But he lost his captain spot in part because of his issues avoiding silly penalties like targeting. You can argue all you want about the legitimacy of some of them, but if his own coaches saw fit to make this move, they obviously see some validity. NC State is running out of leaders on the defensive side of the ball in a hurry. The absolute last thing that it needs is to have its best player in the secondary ejected because of targeting or committing costly penalties. Ingle has shown a lot of growth in the last few weeks, and he loves this football team. He cannot cost his team in this game because it literally cannot afford it.

HERE'S A GUY

Justice Ellison. The fact that Wake Forest is doing all it has this year in spite of Kenneth Walker III transferring to Michigan State and becoming a Heisman Trophy contender is remarkable. But losing starter Christian Beal-Smith to an injury, should he miss the game, could be a big blow. But Wake's sophomore running back Ellison could step in nicely, even against an excellent NC State rushing defense. Ellison is actually averaging a team-high 5.5 yards per carry and has four rushing touchdowns on 77 carries. And he had 13 carries for 81 yards (6.23) against North Carolina, but (at least in my opinion) Wake Forest went away from the run too much in that game. It was working. It likely won't run it as much against NC State at least in part out of necessity, but Ellison is more than capable of making plays and it would behoove the Deacons to at least prove it is WILLING to try to run the football. If Ellison can make some plays and loosen things up a bit, it would help.

NARRATIVES

NC State Win:

NC State Loss:

PREDICTION

NC State, 40-34. I'm just not sure without Beal-Smith and coming off of a gut-punch loss last week that Wake Forest will be where it needs to in this one.