Brownlow's GIFs: UNC, Duke face stiff semifinal challenges
Posted March 11, 2022 1:23 p.m. EST
It's starting to feel like old times, isn't it? And by old times, I mean the time when Duke and North Carolina dominated the league and everyone else was an afterthought. The only two sure NCAA Tournament at-large selections, they'll be facing two opponents eager to prove that they belong in the field as well in Miami and Virginia Tech. UNC will face the challenge of trying to beat a talented, well-coached team for a third time. Duke will have to defeat a Miami team that handed the Blue Devils a home loss that was shocking at the time and a harbinger of Duke's home struggles and late-game issues to come. Can Duke overcome that and get a coveted rematch with North Carolina? Does North Carolina have enough to vanquish the hungry Hokies for a third time? We'll see! In the meantime, to the GIFs!
NO. 1 DUKE (27-5) VS. NO. 4 MIAMI (23-9)
Time: 7 p.m.
TV: ESPN/ESPN2
#ANALYSIS
In a lot of ways, Duke isn't the same team it was when it lost to Miami back in early January at home. But some of the issues, including containing the dribble, have come back in recent weeks. And let's be honest about one thing: Syracuse was likely a Cole Swider fourth foul away from pulling that upset off. When Swider went to the bench, Duke made a run that ended up being decisive. That's not to say Duke didn't have to make plays. It did, and Jeremy Roach in particular was great down the stretch. But Duke is going to have to understand that no matter how the game starts, no matter what kind of run it goes on, the other team is not just going to roll over and go away. Syracuse easily could have. But the longer Duke let Syracuse stick around, the longer they believed they could do it. Miami is not going to need to stick around to believe. They know that they can beat Duke. The Blue Devils are facing a situation in this game where they will have to execute and play well to win, and they'll have to be tougher than the Hurricanes. Is some of the pressure off now that Duke escaped in Game 1, or does that linger?
NAMES TO KNOW
Jeremy Roach. The sophomore point guard has quietly put together two straight strong performances, averaging 17 points in the last two games on 11 of 18 shooting (6 of 11 from 3), adding two assists and three turnovers. He had 19 points and hit 5 of 10 from 3 against Syracuse, including arguably the game-sealing 3-pointer. Without him, Duke does not win that game. In the first meeting with Miami, he struggled with the Hurricanes' veteran guards and had nine points on 3 of 8 shooting, four assists and three turnovers. He wasn't the only one to struggle — Duke had 19 assists to 17 turnovers — but he and his teammates also struggled defensively to stop Miami's dribble penetration. Roach will have to be at his best on both ends of the court to help Duke get the revenge win.
Charlie Moore. Miami's senior transfer point guard was a revelation against Duke, dominating on both ends of the court with a team-high 18 points to go with two assists, one turnover and seven steals. Seven! It wasn't a fluke, either, as Moore has been a playmaker in that way for the Hurricanes all season. And in the last two games, he's averaged 13 points on 12 of 28 shooting (10 of 17 from 2-point range), adding 14 assists to four turnovers and three steals. If Miami is to get another win over Duke, Moore is going to have to play as well as he did in the first meeting and do it against a better Duke backcourt than the one he saw back in January.
NARRATIVES
Duke Win:
Duke Loss: Duke fans watching the NCAA Tournament having to trust this Duke team can somehow carry Coach K to his final national title
PREDICTION
Duke, 79-68. I think Duke plays a bit looser and more determined in this one.
NO. 3 NORTH CAROLINA (24-8) VS. NO. 7 VIRGINIA TECH (21-12)
Time: 9:30 p.m.
TV: ESPN/ESPN2
#ANALYSIS
The old adage is that it's hard to beat a team on the same "level" as you three times in a season. A good counterargument to that would be there's maybe a reason that a team won the first two times. And the truth likely lies somewhere in the middle, right? While North Carolina swept the season series with Virginia Tech, both games were close throughout. Carolina dominated both on the glass and at the foul line, and even in an area that can't happen again if Virginia Tech wants to win — the 3-point line. Virginia Tech is fourth in the country in 3-point percentage at 38.9%, but in two games against North Carolina, it made just 12 of 44 (27.3%). And Virginia Tech is dependent upon shooting well from beyond the arc. The Hokies are 14-2 this year when shooting 40% or better from 3 and 7-10 when shooting less than 40 percent. They're 5-8 when below 35 percent. And Carolina is a good 3-point shooting team in its own right, and was against the Hokies too: 18 of 47 (38.3%). Virginia Tech cannot get out-shot from 3 again.
NAMES TO KNOW
Caleb Love. As all North Carolina fans are aware, it's hard to predict when Love is going to play well. But one thing he's done in two games against Virginia Tech? Play well. Very well, in fact. He's averaged 21.5 points on 11 of 26 shooting in two games against the Hokies, getting to the line 17 times and adding 12 assists to four turnovers. One thing Love has done incredibly well the last three games is not let a bad start or a bad shooting performance impact his floor game. He was just 2 of 10 shooting against Virginia, but finished with five assists to one turnover. In fact, in the last three games, he's shot just 8 of 25 from the 3-point line but had 13 assists to just two turnovers. That's a great sign for the Tar Heels, and maybe Virginia Tech ends up being a get-right game for Love as a shooter and scorer too.
Keve Aluma. The Hokies' best player has been the Hokies' best player in both meetings with UNC in terms of his scoring, averaging 17.5 points and 7.5 rebounds on 13 of 28 shooting (3 of 5 from 3). But he did have six assists to six turnovers in the two games, and in the first meeting, him picking up four fouls was a big factor. Aluma has only picked up four fouls in a game four times this year and the Hokies are 2-2 in those games. In the last 12 games, though, he's only picked up three fouls three times and hasn't picked up four at all. He'll need to stay on the court in this one and continue to play well, just hoping that his teammates decide to join him.
NARRATIVES
North Carolina Win:
North Carolina Loss:
PREDICTION
North Carolina, 81-70. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Hokies ended up winning, but it does seem like North Carolina is clicking at a level that it hasn't in awhile.
