Brownlow: Scheyer seeks season sweep for Duke over rival UNC in regular-season finale

By Lauren Brownlow, WRALSportsFan columnist

Well, here we are again. North Carolina has gotten to the end of the year as an underwhelming team with up-and-down performances throughout that is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. And no, this is not 2021 all over again, although sometimes I wonder. And this ACC season as a whole, with UNC being just but one crazy part, will give you plenty of reasons to question reality. The basketball equivalent of Coastal chaos has taken hold, and in the most unflattering of ways: some good teams, some terrible teams and some teams just good enough to beat you on a given night but lose to one of the terrible teams the next.

It's a foolish exercise to try to make one season matter to the next, even when there is a ton of carryover. But if North Carolina manages to do the thing that makes the least sense of all the possible outcomes — crush Duke at home — prepare yourselves for the comparisons to become unavoidable. Because even entering last year's Duke game, no one REALLY expected North Carolina to win. Sure, the Tar Heels were playing better. Just like this year. But in THAT situation? This year's version of UNC has made every surprising win feel like the turnaround was imminent, and so far it hasn't come.

North Carolina did get eternal bragging rights in the rivalry last year, and it's hard to imagine the rivalry ever topping the gravitas and quality of last year's matchups. A sweep from Duke under first-year head coach Jon Scheyer would be a great start to the rebooted rivalry for the Blue Devils, to be sure.

Last year, the Tar Heels did not HAVE to beat Duke at Duke to make the NCAA Tournament in the regular-season finale. Carolina had won 10 of 12 coming into it with an 18-8 record. This year? Carolina has three more losses than it did at the end of the regular season already and not a whole lot else in terms of resume-building. The rivalry always has stakes, and while it's not a Final Four matchup, a potential NCAA Tournament at-large berth is pretty high-stakes. Most Duke fans would I'm sure trade last year's final two UNC game outcomes with this year's sweep in a heartbeat, but keeping their rival out of the NCAA Tournament would make a season sweep even sweeter.

So let's get to the GIFs, shall we?

DUKE (22-8, 13-6 ACC) AT NORTH CAROLINA (19-11, 11-8 ACC)

Time: 6:30 p.m.
TV: ESPN

#ANALYSIS

In hindsight, it's probably a good thing that we got the white-knuckle Final Four Duke-Carolina game, because it's the only one that's been super close recently. One of the more fun rivalry stats has always been how close the point total all-time is, and while it stays close, it's always more fun when the GAMES actually are too. This year's first UNC-Duke game was actually the closest in the regular season between the two in two years, even if it wasn't exactly a work of art.

After the loss at Virginia, Duke found itself 8-4 in games decided by single digits. It's now 10-4 in that category, and it's won five in a row, the longest winning streak this season. But four of those wins were at home, a place the Blue Devils didn't lose this season. Duke hadn't gone perfect at home in nearly 10 years. In his first season at the helm, with a Duke squad that is certainly good but not the behemoth some past Duke teams have been, that's quite an accomplishment.

Duke's road games have been more of an adventure, obviously. The Blue Devils are 3-6 on the road in league play, and while three of the losses were by single digits, two of the other three were by at least 20. Those did come earlier in the season, to be fair to Duke. And they did win both close and blowout games on the road, too. But their best road win by Ken Pom was by 22 at Syracuse. It'd be far too neat to say UNC was a different team at home, but the Tar Heels were far more likelier to win there, obviously. Carolina did manage to win four ACC road games, but three were against ACC bottomfeeders. Still, after UNC lost at NC State, it became imperative that the Tar Heels win at least three of their final four games and maybe more. UNC has lost twice at home, but its best wins of the season have come in the Dean Dome as well. If there was ever a time for another big win, it's now.

In the first matchup between these two, shooting was a concern. In that neither team could do it well. But Duke came into its home finale on Tuesday having made 43 of its last 109 3-pointers (39.4%). The Blue Devils were just 2 of 19 from distance in the win over NC State, but they won that game with their defense. The 3-pointers going in is just icing on the cake when Duke is playing well defensively. The Blue Devils dominated on that end in Round 1 against UNC and did shoot well from 3, but took just 11 (making four).

While Duke has struggled shooting the 3 this year, they might need another word for whatever has happened at UNC. It's been the biggest difference between last year's UNC team and this one, by far. The Tar Heels are 325th nationally and last in ACC play in 3-point shooting (31.2% and 30.7%, respectively). After the loss at NC State, UNC had made just 12 of its last 52 3-point attempts. If there's a positive sign, it's that UNC made 24 of 51 3-pointers in its last two games, both wins. And UNC has managed to make at least 10 3-pointers in three of its last six games after doing it just three times all season before that. It's just very difficult to win in today's college basketball without making 3-pointers. UNC made just 7 of 27 in the first meeting. Can UNC win without making them? Sure. Would I advise trying it, especially if UNC fails to get to the free-throw line like it did in Round 1? Absolutely not.

In the first meeting, Duke obviously focused a lot of its defense on Armando Bacot, and Dereck Lively and company made his day more difficult. They were able to contain him enough so that he couldn't overcome his teammates' shooting woes and he wasn't a dominant factor on the boards. They're going to have to make sure either UNC is content to jack up jump shots and forget about Bacot, or they can't find Bacot when they want to, or both.

Sidenote: Here's why rebounding percentages are more important than rebound margin, kids: UNC had 14 offensive rebounds to Duke's 13 in the first meeting. But Duke rebounded 33.3% of its misses and UNC just 29.8%, so who REALLY won the rebounding battle? Just saying. And that was a big factor in Round 1 as Duke wasn't shooting as well as it is now. UNC absolutely cannot let Duke get second shots.

The big men are important, sure. But when the dust settles, this game will be decided by which backcourt excels on both ends of the floor. The first meeting was advantage Duke in a big way. UNC couldn't stop penetration on the perimeter, and Duke was able to break down the defense enough to pull UNC away from the basket and getting those crucial defensive boards when there were misses.

NAMES TO KNOW

Jeremy Roach. Duke might have shiny new talented freshmen all over the court, but Roach always had to be the straw that stirred Duke's proverbial drink this year for the Blue Devils to reach their potential. And that's exactly what has happened as of late as Roach has led Duke in scoring for four straight games. It started before that, though — Roach had flashes during the season with a few 20-point performances sprinkled in, but he mixed some real stinkers in too and couldn't establish consistency. When Duke hosted Wake Forest at the end of January, Roach poured in 21 points. Then he had 20 points in the win over UNC and controlled the game on both ends of the court. He's now scored at least nine points for 10 games in a row, the longest such streak in his career. You know what stopped his last such streak, which also began late last season? The loss to North Carolina. Roach knows as well as anyone that this team needs a veteran leader heading into March if it wants to reach its potential, and Roach has more than shouldered the load. He'll need to again on Saturday for Duke to get the sweep.

Leaky Black. The recipient of all of the "he's on his 17th year of eligibility!" jokes, Black has never minded playing a support role during his five years in Chapel Hill. In fact, when I was considering which UNC player to pick? My immediate thought was Armando Bacot because he was the only impactful UNC veteran playing his final home game. And then I remembered that no, he's not. Black has always deferred to the stars around him, but one thing that the years have shown about the Duke-UNC rivalry is an unsung hero often emerges. If UNC is going to win a game like this, it feels like it would be someone like Black to lead the charge, right? Black is not perfect, but he's one of the best players I can remember in terms of knowing exactly who he is on the court and what he can give his team. Does he take a few too many shots? Sometimes, but not very often. He's often the guy to make the extra pass or get the deflection that leads to the fast break, or notch the hockey assist that doesn't show up on the stat sheet. And with his size and defensive ability, he's always the guy that gets the assignment of guarding the opponent's best player. You try chasing a guy around screens for 30 seconds and then making a jumpshot.

Black has been on all kinds of Carolina teams: a No. 2 seed (2019), terrible (2020), slightly less terrible (2021) and then the last two seasons have been their own unique journey. He's seen a Hall of Fame coach who recruited him retire, the pieces around him continually change and has transitioned from a player UNC fans dreaded seeing on the court as a freshman at times to beloved. It's his last home game too, and if there was ever a time to do the dirty work that UNC needs to win a game like this, it's now.

NARRATIVES

Duke Win:

Duke Loss:

North Carolina Win:

North Carolina Loss:

PREDICTION

Duke, 78-69. After I correctly predicted that UNC would beat Clemson or Virginia at home when both seemed unlikely, I have tried to tap back into whatever gut instinct that led me there. Perhaps the 12-hour intestinal bug I fought off earlier this week disrupted my abilities, because my gut is all out of strong feelings. So all I can do is go on what we've seen from both teams, not only all season but also in the last few weeks. Look at me, trying to use things like "past games" and "establishes offensive and defensive metrics" to predict who will win ACC matchups. But this is Duke-Carolina.