Carolina's free agent questions

By Adam Gold

Hey, fellow Caniacs! It’s been a minute. I know you missed me and my views of the team we care most about, especially as we get closer to draft time.  Who am I kidding?  I know you haven’t missed me at all.  You do, however, miss the Hurricanes and the euphoria of the run to the Eastern Conference Finals is still lingering.  So, as we approach this week’s draft, I thought we’d get reacquainted with the team, and break it up into three parts.  By the time we get to draft day, we’ll try some roster projections.  In the meantime, we’ll discuss some potential trades and the prospect depth at Charlotte.

Today, we begin with the current crop of Carolina free agents. This is NOT in order of preference or importance, keep in mind. We’ll handle the unrestricted free agents first, then go about sorting through those still under team control — as, honestly, those are the more complicated situations.

Unrestricted free agents

Justin Williams, RW (23 goals, 53 points in 82 games played)

“We’re talking right now, but it’s just as friends.”

In a recent podcast with Carolina’s captain that’s how he characterized conversations between the soon-to-be 38-year old winger and the organization. So, if you’re looking for a sign that an announcement on Williams hockey future is coming down the pike, sorry to disappoint you. This season took a lot out of the Hurricanes’ legend.  At times, he was their best player.  And, that is not meant to be a slight on Sebastian Aho, or Jaccob Slavin, or anyone else on the Carolina roster. That’s just how good Williams was for extended stretches this year.

His 53 points were the most since the 2011-12 season in Los Angeles. He was at his best in the second half of the season, posting 33 of those points (16g, 17a) in the final 44 games. He led the team in power play goals with nine and scored 11 of his 23 markers in the third period. He also scored a goal with his face and his, well, junk (his term, not mine) this year.  His season, one that his head coach insisted was the best of his career, was far more than his irreplaceable leadership.  Justin Williams was productive.

Now what?

Well, that will be determined by Williams, who will turn 38 years old on October 4. If he wants to play, he’ll play here. Is it possible he could play for another organization?  I guess anything is possible.  But, in that podcast he points out that he didn’t build a house here to up and leave.  Justin doesn’t do anything without full commitment.  As long as he’s ready for that Tom Dundon and Don Waddell will fit him into the mix. Until then, the team will approach the off-season as if Williams is NOT going to return and then add him into the group should he opt back in.

Don’t be alarmed. I fully expect him to be at the center locker in the Hurricanes dressing room when training camp begins in mid-September. His cap hit was $4.5 million a year ago.  Assuming his return, I would expect his 2019-20 number to be relatively close to that.  In the range of $3.5-$4.5 million.

Greg McKegg, C (6 goals, 11 points in 41 games played)

Greg McKegg showed up on January 4, in a game against the Columbus Blue Jackets and turned PNC Arena on it’s ear. A goal and an assist in his Hurricanes debut helped Carolina to a big win. Two games later, he did it again in the regular season’s only win against the Islanders and McKegg quickly achieved cult hero status. In the end, he became an invaluable piece of the second half surge (pun intended) playing for his fifth NHL team. He won 51% of his face offs and scored a pair of post season goals, including one in Boston that gave the Hurricanes the lead in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

However, with Lucas Wallmark slated to be either the third or fourth center and the Hurricanes need to significantly upgrade the position, it remains to be seen if McKegg can get more of a guarantee from another organization. They’d love to have Greg back, but with the performances of Clark Bishop and Nicolas Roy (especially, Roy’s post season dominance) in Charlotte, McKegg’s situation might be one that waits a few weeks while the rest of the roster figures itself out. Either way, he’s a minimum-salary guy if he’s on a one-way contract.

Michael Ferland, LW (17 goals, 40 points in 71 games played)

This was the tale of two seasons. The first half of his Carolina Hurricanes career was spectacular. He scored big goals, delivered big hits and electrified the fans to the point that people started speculating about a big contract before Thanksgiving rolled around.  In truth, the team and Ferland’s representatives did exchange contract parameters. But, the demands were far beyond what the Hurricanes were prepared to meet and they opted to let the season play out before they made any decisions on Ferland’s Carolina future.

Ferland scored 11 goals in his first 21 games with the Hurricanes, five of them on the power play and three game winners. He scored just six goals in his next 50 games, one on the power play, and only one AFTER the Hurricanes opted to keep Ferland for a playoff push rather than move him for a draft pick at the trade deadline. It’s fair to say that the acquisition of Nino Niederreiter took away from Ferland’s productivity. When at his best, Michael was playing with Aho and Teuvo Teravainen on a top line. However, due to injuries and a drop in performance, his ice time diminished, and his production all but vanished.

Ferland’s willingness to be physical plus his knack for scoring will convince some team to pony up $4-$5 million annually on a multi year deal. I just don’t think that team will call Raleigh, North Carolina home.

Petr Mrazek, G (23-14-3, 2.39 GAA/.914 SV%)

One of the indelible marks of the 2018-19 season will be the many enthusiastic outbursts from Petr Mrazek during the season. Maybe it will be his reaction after the overtime win at Florida, when he made a series of game-saving stops followed by an Aho overtime winner that will stay with us. Maybe it will be his post game interview after the post season clinching win over New Jersey. Doesn’t matter.  Mrazek’s energy and, yes, his performance were hallmarks of the post season run.

In Mrazek’s last 15 regular season starts, he was 12-3-0 with a .941 save percentage, three shutouts and seven other games in which he allowed 2 or fewer goals. That play remained, for the most part, in the post season. After the opening two losses against the Capitals, Mrazek was 5-1-0 in seven starts with a pair of shutouts and a .928 save percentage. And, that includes the 6-0 pasting his team absorbed in Washington in Game 5. Unfortunately, he didn’t regain his level of play after the groin injury he suffered against the Islanders and he was replaced by Curtis McElhinney after losses in Games 1 and 2 vs Boston.

But, is Mrazek a number one goaltender capable of playing 55-60 games? That is the question, because that is the contract he’s seeking. Edmonton’s Mikko Koskinen received a 3-year/$13.5 million contract with vastly inferior numbers, and it’s totally understandable that this is what Mrazek is seeking. But, Carolina is not going to put out that kind of money for a 1-a goalie. And, there isn’t a body of work in Petr’s past that says he’s a 55-start player.

As part of a tandem? Two years and between $2.5-$3.5 million seems about right. As a bonafide number one? Hard to imagine that happening.

Curtis McElhinney, G (20-11-2, 2.58 GAA/.912 SV% in 33 starts)

You could argue that Curtis McElhinney saved the Hurricanes season before it even started. Snapped off the waiver wire a few days before Opening Night after Scott Darling suffered a hamstring injury with the full intent of being returned there as soon as Scott was determined healthy enough to return. Only it never turned out that way.  Curtis was outstanding, and ultimately turned in arguably his best season ever, even as he turned 36 years old during the playoffs.

In his first 26 starts, he compiled a 17-7-2 mark with a .926 save percentage. He was among the best goalies in the entire league and worked incredibly well as a tandem with Mrazek. His overall numbers were diminished a bit, in part, by an 8-goal Winnipeg onslaught in March, an effort that was a team-issue way more than a McElhinney problem. Still, Curtis’ steady play and even-keeled demeanor was a tremendous balancer with Mrazek’s excitable personality. His 33 starts were the most ever in his long NHL career, and he won for the first time ever as a playoff starter, going 3-2-0 with a 2.01 GAA/.930 SV% in five appearances. But, ultimately, McElhinney is what he is, a solid number two goaltender.

In the best laid plans of the Hurricanes, McElhinney gets a 1-year deal in the $1-$1.5 million range.

Restricted free agents

Sebastian Aho, C (30 goals, 83 points in 82 games)

Sebastian Aho is an All Star, but…

What do you mean “but”, Adam?

Well, there are a lot of All Stars, but fewer superstars. There is a distinction between the two. Superstars don’t go the final 14 regular season games without a goal.  Superstars don’t fade into the background during the playoffs.  Both of those things happened to Aho last season.

Admittedly, there is context to be provided to those facts. It’s widely known that Aho was dealing with some type of injury, maybe as part of a collision with teammate Nino Niederreiter during a game in March. And, that might not have been the only one, as for a time late in the year and into the post season, Aho even stopped taking face offs. It is also a fact that Aho set career highs in goals and points BEFORE going goal-less in his last 14 games.

There’s a lot going on here and every single bit of it complicates matters when it comes to locking Aho up on a long term contract. “It is our goal”, General Manager Don Waddell told 99.9 the Fan last week, “to sign him to an 8-year contract.”

I’m sure that is also the goal of the Aho camp. But, at what price? Is Aho in line for a Jack Eichel contract (8 years/$80 million)? Is it closer to the contract to which Washington and Evgeny Kuznetsov agreed (8 years/$62.4 million)? The rules are such that the teams have the leverage over restricted free agents. In fact, it is within their rights to offer Aho just the qualifying offer, which would pay him roughly $1 million in 2019-20. But, no one thinks it’s a good idea to create that kind of animosity between the sides.

Sebastian Aho needs to be a Hurricane for a long, long time. The tricky part is in figuring out what Aho really is and paying him accordingly. In the end, I think it settles at 8 years and $64 million, but I think the longer this drags on, the more danger there is of a really messy situation.

Brock McGinn, LW (10 goals, 26 points in 82 games played)

It might not go any further than Brock McGinn sent the Capitals home with a goal in double overtime in Game 7 on the road. That just might be all the legacy McGinn needs to stamp his return to the Hurricanes on what should ultimately be a very reasonable deal.

McGinn is a classic fourth line winger who can play up for stretches because of his physical play and pretty good skill level. His best asset, though is as a penalty killer and defensive-minded forward who has established himself as a reliable player. You know what you’re going to get every night from McGinn. And, as a 25-year old player, there is still time for him to refine his offensive ability, put more pucks on net and even put himself into a 15-goal annual category. How different is McGinn from Jordan Martinook? The difference is between restricted and unrestricted.

Guess here is a 2-year/$2.5 million deal.

Saku Maenalanen, LW (4 goals, 8 points in 34 games played)

Big, strong, physical, fearless and a very good skater. Those are great things to have in your toolbox. How much can he provide offensively will likely determine his overall future in the NHL.  There were games, including one at Madison Square Garden, in which he flashed a scoring touch that probably made everyone in the organization smile.  My only real wonder regarding Saku is that with Warren Foegele, McGinn and Martinook there is a lot of redundancy. How many defensive-minded wingers can you carry?

It’s worth around a million dollars to see another year of Maenalanen, however.

Clark Bishop, C (1 goal, 3 points in 20 games played)

Bishop is a good skater, tenacious on the forecheck and has a nose for the puck. He was called up at one point during the post season, but didn’t crack the line up and was returned to Charlotte. He’s never been much of an offensive player and seems like a player best-suited right now as “organizational depth” on a 2-way deal.

Haydn Fleury, D (0 goals, 1 point in 20 games played)

Haydn Fleury was the 7th overall pick in the 2014 draft. It’s safe to say that it hasn’t quiet happened for Fleury yet. That doesn’t mean it won’t, or that he’ll never score an NHL goal, but it has certainly been a struggle to stay in the rotation with the Hurricanes.  There are times when Fleury plays with confidence and poise and you can see the ability.  It’s just been hard for him to do it consistently with the Canes’ blue line depth.

If he’s not included as part of a trade, injuries to Trevor van Riemsdyk and Calvin de Haan could open up another chance for Fleury — who’s simply one of the best teammates in the entire organization — but, probably on a minimum contract.

Alex Nedeljkovic, G (1-0-0, 2.00 GAA/.923 SV%)

Alex Nedeljkovic is the reigning goaltender of the year in the American Hockey League. He’s gone 65-26-3 for the Charlotte Checkers over the last two seasons and has improved his secondary numbers (goals against average and save percentage) each year. His lone NHL start in Vancouver was impressive, as was his emergency duty in relief of Cam Ward in Columbus a few years back.

There isn’t anything else for Nedeljkovic to prove in the minors and he just might be Carolina’s primary back up, depending on how things shake out with Mrazek and McElhinney. At the very least, the team hopes to have Ned as part of the mix and he’ll come to training camp with a chance to make the club. What his deal looks like will likely be determined by who the brass have in the number one slot.  But, I’d expect him to shuttle between Charlotte and Raleigh next year.

Next, we’ll look at the prospects, especially those who might make things interesting come the fall.