Holliday: Duke eyes redemption for itself -- and the ACC

By Bob Holliday, WRALSportsFan contributor

Durham, N.C. — Mike Krzyzewski’s words following the loss in his final home game now ring prophetic: “That was unacceptable. But this season has been acceptable. And I’ll tell you the season isn’t over.”

Three weeks after the unthinkable happened — Duke losing in Krzyzewski’s Cameron swan song — the Blue Devils are still playing. And finding different ways to win: Big three point shots against Michigan State; drives to the basket vs. Texas Tech; paint power against Arkansas.

Jeremy Roach, who didn’t even start against UNC on March 5, has become the Blue Devils’ “Mr. Clutch” in this NCAA run, whether setting up his teammates or beating the defense to the basket just before the shot clock expires. A.J. Griffin barely scratched against Carolina in Cameron but really shot it in San Francisco, 10-18 from the floor and 5-10 from beyond the arc. Paolo Banchero’s February shooting slump is a distant memory. Since the conclusion of the ACC Tournament — also a Duke disappointment — Banchero has averaged nearly 19 points per game, and has modeled consistency, scoring at least 16 in each of Duke’s four NCAA wins.

Defense, which was sorely lacking that last game in Cameron, has again become a point of Blue Devil pride. Opponents hit just 37%, 41%, 47%, and 41% against Duke in NCAA play. And apart from Michigan State going 11-22 from beyond the arc, Duke is defending the three-point line as if its tournament life depended on it: Cal-Fullerton, Texas Tech, and Arkansas all shot just 30%. And the Devils’ defense has been especially good at crunch time.

Fittingly, thanks to Duke’s improved play, Mike Krzyzewski will experience one final Final Four. I say fittingly because no coach in the history of the men’s game has earned more trips to college basketball’s showcase. The great John Wooden took UCLA to 12 Final Fours, winning 10 titles. But that was in the era of the 25 team NCAA Tournament, which required fewer games and much less travel; Wooden’s Bruins only needed to win two games to advance to the Final Four. For Krzyzewski to send teams to 13 Final Fours in the modern era, which requires four wins and extensive travel, is an accomplishment to behold.

From 1988-1992 Duke went to the Final Four every single season, five in all. In the nine seasons stretching from 1986 through 1994 the Blue Devils won seven Final Four trips. Since then, Duke has reached the coveted final weekend in NCAA play only a bit less frequently: 1999, 2001, 2004, 2010, and 2015. The program produced three national championships from these five Final Four visits, and clearly Duke is playing well enough now to add one more.

And maybe the quality of the competition Duke played in January and February has something to do with the Blue Devils playing so well in March. The Atlantic Coast Conference, rated just the fifth or sixth best league by college basketball’s power brokers, has outplayed the ballyhooed Big Ten and eliminated the SEC. Only the Big Twelve and Big East are still standing, along with Duke and North Carolina. And remember, the Tournament Selection Committee only awarded the ACC four at large bids. Virginia Tech became the fifth NCAA team only because the Hokies won the ACC Tournament and secured the automatic bid. All of the other major conferences received more bids.

The committee didn’t make it easy for the ACC to succeed either. Apart from Duke’s No. 2 seed, every ACC team faced a difficult path forward, with mostly 10/11 seeds. UNC, now in the Final Four, began its NCAA journey as a No. 8 seed.

And yet, starting with Notre Dame, which was assigned a play-in game, the ACC has rolled. The Irish won their first two NCAA tilts and nearly prevented Texas Tech from getting its Sweet Sixteen shot against Duke. VT, no doubt spent after needing four games to win in Brooklyn, suffered a first round knockout, but through the rounds of 64, 32, and 16, those were the ACC’s only two defeats. Meanwhile, Duke, UNC, and Miami piled up the wins, 11 among the three teams. Headed to the Final Four the ACC boasts a record of 13-3 in this 2022 NCAA Tournament, and with Duke playing UNC Saturday, is guaranteed at least one more win. The worst the ACC can now finish is 14-5; it could finish 15-4. This will be one of the ACC’s best NCAA Tournaments ever; 17-5 in 2015 is probably tops, but to put up these numbers in 2022 when so little was expected is off-the-charts good.

The league did fare poorly in non-conference competition in November and December. Every team except Duke suffered a bad loss or two. That inter-conference warfare has become an important tool as the committee evaluates the relative strength of each conference prior to league play.

But here’s the thing — because of the changing dynamics in college hoops, marked this year by not only the ever growing transfer portal but also an extra season of eligibility awarded by the NCAA because of the pandemic — most ACC teams faced massive roster makeovers. It took time for all those new players to develop chemistry and get used to playing with one another. And of course, with all leagues expanding the number of conference games, we’re not seeing big intersectional battles in February as we once did. So maybe next year the committee should depend more on the eye test during the conference seasons, rather than giving too much weight to the struggles of newly assembled teams in the early season. ACC coaches consistently said during February that the quality of play in the league was much improved, but the committee didn’t buy it.

Let’s look at North Carolina for example. The Tar Heels not only added some new players but a new head coach-and two new assistant coaches. Hubert Davis worked the transfer portal while also trying to recruit for the future. He brought in transfers Brady Manek from Oklahoma, Dawson Garcia from Marquette, and Justin McKoy from Virginia. Puff Johnson was essentially a new player; he was injured during 2021. UNC also brought in freshmen Dontrez Styles and DeMarco Dunn. That’s a lot of roster change even though Armando Bacot, Leaky Black, Caleb Love, and R. J. Davis all returned from 2021.

Also the new head coach changed offenses. After 50 plus years of UNC playing two big men from the free throw line extended to the basket, Davis installed an offense with just one big man on the low block and a stretch four, or big forward, spending a great deal of time on the perimeter. Some defensive concepts were changed as well.

Early in the season, Davis also experimented with player rotation. Garcia started 12 of the first 16 games. He played well at times but was inconsistent. Then he suffered a concussion and missed several contests. When Garcia returned he was not effective. In late January he left school due to a family illness.

There were other adjustments that had to be made. Anthony Harris, an energetic, versatile reserve, was declared ineligible for the second semester. So it was midway through the season before UNC truly settled on a starting lineup; the one with Manek as the fifth starter. Even then, key reserves like Johnson and Styles were still rounding into form so that they might play at a level that would help the team.

UNC lost games by big margins to Purdue, Tennessee, and Kentucky. The Tar Heels fell out of the Top 25. Then came more losses in conference that were not expected: Notre Dame, Miami and Wake Forest — the latter two by a collective 50 points. The Heels then got blown out at home by Duke and also lost in Chapel Hill to lightly-regarded Pitt, the one Quad 3 loss on the Tar Heels’ resume. UNC stood just 18-8 at that point, its NCAA possibilities squarely on the bubble.

Much of the blame for the Tar Heels’ so-so showing in January and February was placed on the shoulders of the first year head coach. Some questioned whether Davis should even be the coach.

But since the Pitt game, certainly the Tar Heels nadir this season, this team has figured things out under Davis’ lead. Defense is much better. Players trust each other and share the ball. And, though it has taken time, Davis seems to have instilled a new mentality, a mental toughness we did not see in those blowout losses.

UNC became a more confident squad after winning at Duke and then absolutely throttling a Virginia team that would reach the third round of the NIT.

In the NCAA Tournament, UNC crushed Marquette and staved off the epic comeback by No. 1 seed Baylor.

Then at the East Regional in Philadelphia, North Carolina logged two more high level wins: Against blue blood UCLA, a four seed, and upstart St. Peter’s. The Tar Heels got past the Bruins thanks to Love’s scoring and Bacot’s rebounding; who could forget Bacot’s amazing falling out of bounds save to Love some 30 feet away-which he absolutely buried? That play tied the game and UNC outscored UCLA 9-2 the rest of the way. Sunday’s win over St. Peter’s featured some exceptional two day preparation. UNC’s coaching staff solved the Peacocks’ unique pressing defense. At the other end, Carolina’s up and coming defense — led by the incomparable Leaky Black — absolutely suffocated St. Peter’s four guard offense. Midway through the second half the Peacocks were shooting less than 20% overall and less than 10% from three. Though the Tar Heels got good shots thanks to their scouting report, they hit just 41% overall and 27% from three. So they didn’t shoot well at all, but dominated thanks to great defense.

Let’s move forward. At a time when Krzyzewski is setting a record for most Final Fours by one coach, UNC as a program will play in its 21st Final Four. That too is a record.

Hubert Davis, under some fire not that many weeks ago, is now being hailed as a hero. He played the long game even as a first year coach. After rocky times, Davis’ offense and defense are now really clicking.

There was never any doubt about Davis’s passion to succeed. His players have embraced their coach’s indomitable will.

UNC will now play a Duke team that is beyond eager to atone for the previous loss to the guys in light blue. The Blue Devils players have resolved to do everything humanly possible to send Krzyzewski out on top. At the same time, UNC, like Duke, is riding a wave of recent success. And the Final Four will be played in New Orleans, where the Carolina program has had so much success. This will be the biggest and most intriguing UNC-Duke game ever. I’ll have more to say later in the week.