Gold: Back Porch preview, Tampa is coming

By Adam Gold radio host 99.9 the Fan

The national hockey media has been talking about this series, literally, for two months. When it appeared possible that Florida might finish atop the Central Division standings, they imagined an opening round clash between the Carolina Hurricanes and Tampa Bay Lightning as can’t miss viewing.

Well, here we are, only it’s in the division finals. The Canes and the Bolts, with almost nothing separating the two during the regular season (4-3-1 each way). The Hurricanes scored 18 goals, the Lightning 17. That’s an average of less than 4 ½ goals per game for two of the highest scoring teams in the league.  Each side won once on road ice.  Each picked up one win in overtime.

There is also one more similarity between these two teams that we’ll get to later, and it has to do with a number.

The Lightning closed out their series with the Panthers on home ice with a 4-0 win, turning around a season series that saw Florida take five of the eight games, including the final pair that sent the defending champs on the road to open round one. The series could have honestly been a sweep, however, as the Bolts twice blew a 2-goal lead in Game 3 at home, falling in overtime when Ryan Lomberg got loose behind the Tampa defense and beat Andrei Vasilevskiky for a 6-5 win.

That was the only game in their series that extended beyond regulation, unlike the Hurricanes who played the equivalent of an extra game thanks to a pair of double overtime losses to Nashville.

Two of the games between the Canes and Bolts needed overtime this year with each side winning one. Carolina’s coming on a Jordan Staal to Martin Necas feed, while Yanni Gourde beat James Reimer in OT in the penultimate game of the season series.

The return of the 86's

There’s another similarity between these two teams beyond each winning in six games and each going 4-3-1 against each other in the regular season. Each team will have a key player in the line up that missed all eight regular season meetings.

Nikita Kucherov and Teuvo Teravainen haven’t been in any of the regular season meetings between the sides. Teravainen due to Covid-19 protocol (for the first game) and a concussion that forced him to miss 34 out of 35 games in the middle of the year. Kucherov underwent off-season hip surgery and missed the entire 56-game slate, but is back and -- it would seem -- at least as good as ever.

Kucherov had a goal and two assists in Tampa’s 5-4 Game 1 win and led the Lightning in scoring in that series with 11 points (3g, 8a). He registered at least one point in 5 of the 6 games and had a pair of 3-point games in the process. Teravainen wasn’t nearly as productive in the Nashville series, with just two points (1g, 1a) in the six games, but he posted 6 points in his first five games back after returning to the line up in the regular season, helping the Hurricanes wrap up first place in the division.

Isn't that special

Tampa Bay’s power play has been on fire so far with 8 goals in 20 opportunities in the playoffs. Their penalty kill hasn’t been as good with the Panthers connecting on 6 of 22 tries. Carolina’s power play hasn’t been great, though it did connect for big goals in Games 5 and 6 to help beat the Predators.  The Canes were just 4 for 19 in man up situations while the kill continues to be great in turning aside 25 of 28 Nashville power plays in the 4-2 series win.

Against each other this year, the penalty kills outranked the power plays. Tampa scored just 3 times in 22 tries (13.6%), while the Canes were 4 for 28 (14.3%).

Statistical anomaly

In each game during the season series, the team that won the face off battle lost the game. No kidding. And, often times the gap was substantial.   Overall, the Hurricanes won 52% of face offs from Tampa Bay, if that matters to you.  And, keep in mind that in Sebastian Aho's 6 for 15 night in the circle in Game 6 against the Predators, he won his last two draws, each in the offensive zone and each let to a goal. "It's really more when you win them that's important", Roid Brind'Amour said during a pregame interview.

Horses for courses

Martin Necas led Carolina with 8 points (3g, 5a) against the Lightning this year. That included the 4-point night in which Necas scored the final two goals of a 4-3 win at PNC Arena. Aho had 6 points (2g, 4a) against the Bolts. Alex Killorn and Victor Hedman paced Tampa Bay with 5 points each against the Hurricanes.

Spiderman memes?

In most situations, being at home and having the benefit of the last change would be significant. It appeared to be that way in Carolina’s opening round series as Predators coach John Hynes got to match up his top line of Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen and Matt Duchene against the Hurricanes line centered by Vincent Trocheck. In Raleigh, Rod Brind’Amour countered with Jordan Staal, Warren Foegele and Jesper Fast.

In this series, it might not matter as during the eight games the line match ups did not change. Just using the centers as a guide, expect to see Aho vs Brayden Point, Vincent Trocheck vs Anthony Cirelli, Jordan Staal vs Gourde, and Steven Lorentz vs Tyler Johnson.

The Hurricanes only injury of note is an issue that popped up with Nino Niederreiter at yesterday's practice. If he can't play tonight, expect to see Cedric Paquette draw back into the line up. A member of last year's cup champs, two of Paquette's three goals with the Hurricanes came against his former team.  Tampa will be without forward Barclay Goodrow, but he has been replaced by talented rookie winger Ross Colton who scored 9 goals in 30 games this year before adding a pair so far in the postseason.

Between the pipes

Andrei Vasilevskiy came into this season having never lost to the Hurricanes. Never. He started seven of the eight games against Carolina this year, going 3-3-1 with a .933 SV%. Alex Nedeljkovic went 2-1-0 against the Lightning this year with a shutout, a 1.02 GAA and a .962 SV%.

History

This is the first time the Hurricanes and Lightning have ever met in the postseason.

The Carolina Hurricanes are 4-0, all time, in second round series. The Canes beat Montreal in 2002, New Jersey in 2006, Boston in 2009 and the Islanders in 2019. If you’re wondering about last year’s 4-1 loss to the Bruins, it was technically considered the first round as the sweep of the Rangers only “qualified” Carolina for the playoffs.

For what it’s worth, it made that final note worth using. Even though it’s utterly meaningless in the grand scheme of things.

Housekeeping

Remember, Storm Watch starring Alec Campbell comes your way at 4:00 today on 99.9 the Fan. And, since each game the rest of the way is nationally televised, there will be no more games on Bally Sports South. Mike Maniscalco and Tripp Tracy will have the radio call on 99.9 the Fan starting at 5:00. Today’s game will be on NBCSN. As always, remember to check out the Canes Corner Podcast which drops after every Hurricanes game. You can find it wherever you get your podcasts.