Holliday: Buckle your chin straps Pack fans, looks like a wild ride ahead

By Bob Holliday, WRALSportsFan columnist

The seminal moment Saturday night at Miami occurred early in the third quarter. NC State’s Anthony Smith recovered a fumble at the Miami six yard line. Alas, Anthony’s helmet had become dislodged while he tried to circumvent the Hurricanes punt unit. He was not wearing the helmet when he fell on the football. Officials reviewed the play and decided to penalize Smith for participating without a helmet. Since the refs also flagged Miami for holding. The penalties offset and State was ordered to replay fourth down. After the Pack’s second punt, the Canes took custody of the football at the 17; that proved to be a very different outcome than a Wolfpack possession beginning in the shadow of the goal.

I’m pretty sure the Pack would have scored had it been able to keep the football at the 6-yard line. NC State converts 88% of its red zone opportunities, posting 17 touchdowns and five field goals in 25 red zone visits in the first six games. Even a field goal at that juncture perhaps transforms the Wolfpack’s one point loss into a narrow victory.

NC State should have won at Miami but so much went wrong. Starting with Bam Knight getting nailed for a four yard loss on the game’s second play. Bam didn’t seem to have his usual burst in this game. One of the ACC’s leading rushers at 84 yards per game coming into the Miami contest, Knight gained just 16 yards at Hard Rock Stadium. Ricky Person ran for 54 yards, but the Pack never really established a good run-pass balance, which made the offense predictably reliant on the right arm of Devin Leary.

The Wolfpack quarterback normally completes 67% of his throws, but against Miami he connected on just 24 of 42, which is 57 percent. The lack of a consistent run game put State in too many third and long situations. The Pack converted just 3 of 14 third downs, less than half of the team’s seasonal average.

Third down play also proved to be a problem for NC State’s proud defense. Prior to Saturday NC State limited opponents to a conversion rate of just 25%, as stingy a number as any defense in America. Miami converted 6 of 17 third downs (35%) and two of those conversions came on the Canes’ very first drive, including Tyler Van Dyke’s 25-yard pass to Charleston Rambo.

It didn’t help that State lost Isaiah Moore, the team’s leader on defense, to a knee injury on Miami’s second possession, and we now know he is out for the season. Maybe Moore’s communication skills were missed by the Wolfpack secondary. Van Dyke completed 25 of his 33 passes for well over 300 yards. His receivers had space. NC State’s defensive backs were not credited with a single pass defended. By contrast, Miami broke up six NC State attempts.

And the Pack defensive backs gave up some big plays: The 25-yarder to Rambo, a 60-yard bomb to Rambo, a 29-yarder to Elijah Arroyo when two defensive backs covered tight end Will Mallory, and an 18-yard completion on 3rd and 14 when NC State dropped eight players into coverage.

But no pass stood out more than Miami’s second touchdown. Van Dyke found Jaylan (Rooster) Knighton all alone coming out of the backfield. “Rooster” Knighton raced 53 yards for six.

What’s stunning is that the Canes used the same concept the previous week at Carolina, also for a long touchdown. I’m sure it was on the scout tape! Yet Jakeen Harris didn’t react to Knighton’s pass route until it was too late.

NC State’s offense did some nice things to overcome the Canes early 14-3 advantage. Leary hit Emeka Emezie with a 40-yard bomb, and twice threw to Thayer Thomas for touchdowns. The Pack took a 17-14 lead to the locker room.

But we saw more miscues in the second half. After giving up the 60-yarder to Rambo on Miami’s first drive of the third quarter, the Wolfpack made a stop on third and five at the 15. Manny Diaz sent out his field goal unit. But before Andy Borregalas could kick, the Wolfpack’s Cory Durden jumped offside. Moments later, Van Dyke and Mallory put Miami in the end zone. Durden was later cited for roughing the passer, although that penalty was not as clear cut. Still, it helped the Canes kick a chip shot field goal. So that’s ten extra Miami points after Durden penalties.

NC State was able to retake the lead early in the fourth quarter. But, emblematic of the Pack’s play in South Florida, Leary’s unit kept getting in its own way. First came a drop by Devin Carter; it would not be his last. The failed third down caused Dave Doeren to put his punt time on the field. To Doeren’s credit, the Wolfpack executed a fake punt, snapping to the up man Trent Pennix, who darted downfield 42 yards — like the running back he was at Sanderson High School.

Then Leary threw a touchdown pass to emerging tight end Chris Toudle. But that was called back because of a lineman downfield. So Leary just took the thing in himself.

NC State’s lead, 27-24, lasted all of five minutes. Rooster and Rambo took the Canes 75 yards. Rooster, the running back, rushed five times for 50 yards while Rambo, the receiver, caught three for 23, including the touchdown.

With 9:23 remaining, State stormed back. Or tried. Leary threw long to Anthony Smith. The play covered 54 yards and was allowed to stand, as this time Smith kept his headgear on. But the drive stalled when Bubba Bolden appeared to sack Leary at the 26. TV replays showed Leary might have gotten rid of the ball, flinging it forward and out of bounds just before he hit the turf. There was no official review though, and out came the field goal unit. Christopher Dunn missed from 45 yards, wide right. A Miami player ran into him, so he got to kick again five yards closer. The second attempt went left, but hit the upright and somehow bounced through.

State still needed two more points though, and now Dunn looked to be fighting through discomfort on the sideline after taking that hit. So getting a touchdown became a top priority.

State got great field position at the 44, but once again Carter dropped a pass. He was wide open and would have at least picked up a first down, and given his running skills, maybe more. From this, NC State would never recover.

So for the second time this season, NC State played less than its best — much less, actually — in a nationally televised road game at night. This second setback comes just as the Wolfpack was beginning to get some recognition and respect in the national polls. Now of course, the Pack is again on the outside looking in, and faces very long odds in getting the kind of College Football Playoff ranking needed for a major bowl game. That holds true even if State should win the ACC Championship, and that possibility still remains for now. But to do that, the Pack must run the table in conference play, starting this weekend against Louisville.

Another prime time opportunity for the Pack against the Cardiac Cards

Scott Satterfield’s Louisville always comes to play. The deficits in the Cardinals’ two ACC losses total a mere four points. U of L lost a heartbreaker at nationally ranked Wake Forest when Nick Sciba kicked a 28 yard field goal in the final seconds. The Cardiac Cards then squandered a 30-13 lead in the fourth quarter against suddenly red hot Virginia. Brennan Armstrong scored with 22 seconds left to give the Cavs a 34-33 lead. But get this — Malik Cunningham moved the Cards 44 yards in 19 seconds! Louisville still had a chance to win the game; however James Turner missed a 49-yard field goal.

Louisville won at Florida State 31-23, a win that looks better now that the Seminoles have won three straight. Last week in the rain, U of L beat Boston College at home 28-14 as the Cards rushed for 331 yards.

Now Louisville runs the same spread offense Satterfield used to great success when he coached at Appalachian State. Malik Cunningham’s athletic skill makes the Cardinals’ zone read plays extremely difficult to defend. The numbers tell the story. Cunningham and running backs Trevion Cooley (from Knightdale), and Jalen Mitchell, all rank among the ACC’s top 25 rushers. Louisville as a team gains 201 yards per game on the ground, one of the ACC’s top four averages.

NC State’s stingy ground defense, which allows a league low 93 yards per game, will get its biggest test of the season. Trouble is, the Cardinals pass with effect also. They don’t throw as often as many ACC teams. Cunningham put up just 17 passes against Boston College and 25 the previous game against Virginia. But U of L averages 13 yards per completion. Given all the trouble State had defending the pass in Miami, the Wolfpack has scant time to shore up the communication problems it experienced. Now State’s secondary must defend against a quarterback who is a much greater running threat than the quarterback they saw last week. Also Cunningham throws extremely well on the run.

The good news for NC State is that U of L’s defense can be pretty generous — especially against the pass. Prior to the win over BC, the Cards were allowing 298 yards per outing through the air, 14th in the ACC. Louisville’s secondary has collected a league best nine interceptions this season, however Leary may be the ACC’s least interception prone quarterback. Still, NC State cannot be one dimensional and win this game.

Another 111 yard performance on the ground won’t cut it against the Cardinals; and remember, 42 of NC State’s total rush yards at Miami came on a fake punt. Louisville allows 147 rushing yards per game and State will need all of that Saturday night. Probably a little more. This will be a war over time of possession, as Louisville and NC State rank second and third in the ACC in that category, at roughly 31.5 minutes per game. If the Wolfpack can limit Louisville to 28 or 29 minutes of offense, that’s a big plus for the Pack’s somewhat beleaguered pass defense.

Special teams could influence this contest. Louisville has a dangerous return game. On the other hand, the Cardinals can become careless with the football. U of L turned it over four times against Boston College. NC State, once a league leader in turnovers forced, did not pick off a pass or recover a fumble at Miami. Turnovers might be a difference maker against the Cards.

Be sure Scott Satterfield, who grew up Orange County, has this game circled on his schedule. Ditto Trevion Cooley, who piled up almost 2000 yards at Knightdale High School, just down the road from Carter-Finley Stadium.

This is a game NC State must win to remain in the Atlantic Division race. And it only gets more difficult from here for the Pack, especially at Florida State and at Wake Forest.

So buckle up everybody. And players — don’t lose any more helmets.