Holliday: Can Carolina start 4-0?

By Bob Holliday, WRAL Sports contributor

North Carolina is now 3-0 in back to back seasons for the first time since Mack Brown Pt. 1. Having watched upcoming opponent Pitt struggle mightily at West Virginia the other night, it looks to me the Tar Heels could start 4-0 and that hasn’t happened since 1997, Brown’s final season in Chapel Hill before taking the job at Texas. Certainly Carolina’s play in whipping physical Minnesota suggests this team can finish September undefeated, before starting a rigorous stretch of conference games come October in a much improved ACC; seven teams remain unbeaten through week three, plus NC State and Clemson look strong at 2-1.

Minnesota had allowed just 222 yards of total offense per game in the Gophers’ two wins against Nebraska and Eastern Michigan. UNC gained 75 yards Saturday in the game’s first three minutes, the final 46 coming on a Drake Maye deep ball which Nate McCollum wrestled away from a defender as he fell into the end zone.

Minnesota did not appear prepared for McCollum and that’s understandable. McCollum had been limited by injury, securing just one reception for eight yards in the first two games. But Saturday McCollum made his grand entrance for the 2023 season, thrilling the Kenan Stadium crowd with 15 catches for 165 yards, the 15 receptions just one shy of the school’s single game record. McCollum’s final snag essentially clinched victory.

UNC faced a second and five at the 29, leading just 11 with 9 ½ to play. McCollum made a sliding catch at the sideline 17 yards upfield. The pass was ruled incomplete by the game officials. But the replay booth noticed the wide receiver dragged his toe in bounds briefly before crossing the sideline, and overturned the call. Beyond huge.

Maye, who passed for 414 yards in his most prolific performance ever at home, did not complete another pass after that as UNC finally fashioned a running game in the closing minutes of the contest. Starting with Maye’s backward pass to Omarion Hampton-which counted as a 17 yard run because it was backward-the Tar Heels ran the football nine straight times, scoring on a one yard run by British Brooks. That drive took nearly 5 ½ minutes off the clock, in addition to producing an insurance touchdown.

North Carolina showed offensive balance in its first two wins over South Carolina and Appalachian, passing for well over 200 yards and rushing for more than 160. In the narrow win over ASU, the Tar Heels topped the 300 yard mark on the ground with Hampton alone rushing for 234.

Minnesota, however, stops the run. Against the Gophers, Hampton struggled to get even two yards on most of his carries. By halftime Hampton, Brooks, and Maye had gained just 34 yards on 20 attempts.

At the behest of veteran Coach Mack Brown, UNC abandoned the run in the third quarter. Maye passed on virtually every down. Minnesota’s plan was to keep Maye in the pocket. When that happened, the Gophers’ pass defense worked well. Maye suffered drive killing sacks on two occasions. A third time Maye was pressured in the pocket and threw carelessly toward the sideline instead of taking the sack. That play resulted in an interception.

But for the most part Maye had freedom to roam. UM Coach P.J. Fleck would say later his team’s rush lanes were poor. With Maye rolling right and rolling left and flinging it all over the field the Gophers’ secondary got hands on just four of Maye’s passes, picking off two and breaking up two.

However 29 of Maye’s other 36 throws found their target, and often for big yardage. In addition to McCollum’s 46 yarder, Maye hit Kamari Morales for 55 yards, J.J. Jones for 39 yards, and Gavin Blackwell for 38. He connected on five other passes that measured at least 17 yards.

And the Tar Heels did so much damage straight out of the gate. Fleck noted post game it was 14-0 before his Gophers could get anything going.

The Gophers played their worst defense on third down. UNC kept drives alive on third down 12 of 17 times. On no fewer than five occasions, Maye completed third down passes to keep the chains moving, keeping the UM defense on the field for extended time.

Defensively, UNC gave up yards but not points. The Tar Heels did struggle to stop the run at times. Minnesota freshman Darius Taylor was a force for the Golden Gophers, amassing 138 yards on 22 carries. Tar Heel pass coverage produced better numbers, as UM gained just 133 yards through the air. Only one Minnesota wide receiver caught a pass of more than 20 yards.

But it must be said Gopher quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis did not have a good day throwing the football. He had several passes that were tipped, one of which led to an interception deep in UNC territory; another of which nullified a pass interference call on the Tar Heel secondary. Carolina sacked Kaliakmanis just once, but pressured the quarterback continually. Kaliakmanis missed on 19 of his 30 throws.

The big story is what the Tar Heel defense accomplished collectively. Maye’s first interception gave Minnesota possession at the UNC 16. But the Gophers managed just 11 yards on the next 7 snaps, and chose to kick a field goal.

The Tar Heels twice stopped Gopher drives with interceptions. On a third occasion, Desmond Evans prevented a first down at the UNC 29 forcing a second field goal.

Critical to UNC’s overall success: Holding Minnesota to just 3-12 third down conversions. As Mack Brown told UNC play by play announcer Jones Angel after the game, “No one should ever call this team soft again.”

Run game takes the stage Saturday night at Pitt

Larry Fedora never lost to Pitt, but the Panthers have been tough on Mack Brown. In fact, Brown has not won in the Steel City as UNC coach, though both losses at Pitt, in 2019 and 2021 came in overtime.

Playing Minnesota should be good preparation for playing Pitt, because P.J. Fleck and Pat Narduzzi employ a similar style – playing physical hard-nosed defense with an emphasis offensively on running the football.

Pitt thus far leads the ACC in total defense, allowing just 236 yards per game, while allowing just 17 points per contest. The Panthers give up just 122 yards on the ground. Most impressively, Pittsburgh leads the ACC in pass defense.

In years past this has been a problem area, as Narduzzi likes to overload the box with seven or eight players to stop the run. This often leaves secondary defenders in one-on-one coverage. But the Panthers have handled the pass pretty well so far.

And yet both Cincinnati and West Virginia scored enough points to beat the Panthers. The problem: Pitt’s offense.

In the latest ACC stats, the Panthers rank a paltry 12th in rushing and they are dead last in passing. Transfer quarterback Phil Jurkovec looks nothing like the guy that threw touchdown passes to Zay Flowers a couple of years ago at Boston College. Jurkovec completes just 47% of his passes for 178 yards per game.

In the “Backyard Brawl” at West Virginia, Narduzzi was so determined to establish the run (to take pressure off Jurkovec?) that the Panthers moved 67 yards on 10 plays without throwing a single pass! Alas, the drive bogged down deep in the red zone and Pitt kicked for three.

The Panthers never reached the red zone again.

When Jurkovec started passing, bad things happened. He threw an interception that led to a West Virginia touchdown drive of seven yards. He threw a second interception that set up a Mountaineer field goal, and a third that truncated Pitt’s final offensive possession. Jurkovec finished 8-20 for 81 yards with three interceptions.

West Virginia lost its star quarterback Garrett Greene on the game’s very first series. So Pitt lost to a backup quarterback, 17-6.

For the Pitt defense, which saw only nine passes Saturday night from little known Nicco Marchiol, the appearance of Drake Maye could come as a big shock. Minnesota’s Fleck described Maye as “a top five quarterback” and after last Saturday who could argue that point?

Pitt will focus on stopping the run. I have never seen a Narduzzi game plan that said we’re gonna drop eight into coverage and try to stop the run with three. The Panthers not only are stingy in their ground defense but they pressure the quarterback. The Panthers rank among the ACC leaders in sacks.

On the other hand, UNC puts so many receivers into pass plays, it’s hard to imagine Pitt can prevent separation on every route. Maye excels at finding the open man and he does it quickly.

UNC likely won’t score 42 points against the Panthers as it did last year in Chapel Hill. But Pitt likely won’t score 24 either, unless Phil Jurkovec has a complete metamorphosis.

Barring something unforeseen, turnovers, injuries, a blocked kick, UNC should record its first win in Pittsburgh since 2017 and also achieve an historic 4-0 start.