Holliday: Could this be Keatts' best ACC season? Here's how the Wolfpack get to 12 wins

By Bob Holliday, WRAL Sports contributor

NC State finished 11-7 in Kevin Keatts’ first ACC campaign, in those long ago days when league teams only played 18 conference games. The Wolfpack’s other seasons under Keatts have all hovered around .500, apart from last year’s woeful, injury-laden 4-16 mark. Thanks to the win at Wake, this season has a chance to be special – if the Wolfpack can win two this week at home.

Florida State visits Wednesday night. Despite the Seminoles’ overall record, this is no gimme. Coach Leonard Hamilton has shortened his historically very deep bench. Often only eight players get significant minutes-down from twelve in past seasons. The more compact player rotation has helped FSU fashion a 5-6 ACC Record, after a beyond disastrous 2-9 start in non conference play.

Remember, Florida State won on the road at Pitt. Virginia and UNC couldn’t do that. Clemson is the only other ACC team to win at the Peterson Events Center, and the Tigers escaped by one. The Seminoles beat Pitt at Pitt by seven.

More recently Florida State had No. 1 Clemson on the ropes in Tallahassee. Chase Hunter’s “and one” in the final seconds saved the Tigers 82-81.

Florida State is one of the ACC’s better shooting teams. The ‘Noles hit 35% from three in ACC games and 45% overall. NC State, by contrast, shoots just 31% from beyond the arc in conference play and merely 42% overall.

But NC State is elite defensively, leading the league in blocked shots and ranking fourth in the ACC in steals. The Wolfpack forces 12 turnovers per game and leads the league with a turnover margin of 4.18 in ACC only games. Florida State is turnover prone – coughing up the basketball 11.45 times per game.

NC State also has an edge on the backboard. But this team MUST cut back on fouls. The Pack fouled Wake Forest 21 times – an improvement from the 27 at UNC – but still too many. Smith, Burns and Morsell were all one whistle away from disqualification on Saturday. Valuable rebounder Greg Gantt committed three personal fouls as did Joiner.

Why do I bring this up? Florida State shoots 76% from the foul line. Too many trips to the line could be a game breaker. NC State’s starters need to stay smart about where to be aggressive and keep Florida State out of the bonus.

Georgia Tech is having a rough season. NC State won by 12 in Atlanta, and Duke just pulverized the Yellow Jackets 86-43 in Atlanta. But remember, Coach Josh Pastner plays mostly zone defense, and Duke shot 56% against that zone, 39% from three, and the Blue Devils rebounded 43% of their missed shots against that zone.

But here’s the thing: GT plays at winless Louisville on Wednesday. It is quite possible the Jackets will come to Raleigh on the heels of an attitude-boosting victory.

Also, the PNC Arena atmosphere for a 1 p.m. start against lowly Georgia Tech probably won’t compare with what we see Wednesday night at 9 p.m. vs. Florida State. It’s quite possible the Wolfpack will need to bring its own energy this weekend, and the team will need to keep in mind that early in January the Yellow Jackets actually beat nationally ranked Miami. Yes, that really happened.

Still, Tech is offensively challenged. Even in the unlikely win against the Hurricanes, the Yellow Jackets shot a mere 41%. So if the Pack comes prepared to play – and this team has so much to play for – NC State should pick up its ninth win, assuming it took care of business against Florida State.

The two games this week are critical because the schedule becomes more difficult starting in the first full week of February. NC State visits Virginia on Tuesday, then travels to Boston College for a weekend game, and that’s followed by a midweek game at Syracuse. That’s a lot of travel!

NC State will likely need to win one of those three road games to make this Keatts’ best ACC season ever.

A team that started 1-3 in the ACC, yet now has won six of its last seven, should be able to win at BC. At least on paper.

Boston College is aggressive defensively and scores well close to the basket. Not good from long range. The Eagles are sneaky good on the offensive glass and they, too, shoot free throws well.

State certainly has a chance at Virginia and Syracuse, but because BC is lowest in the standings, that would seem to be the game mostly likely to put the Wolfpack in double figures.

The schedule then re-directs ACC play to PNC Arena. But what a tough stretch! NC State must play UNC, Wake Forest, and Clemson over a span of just six days, before finishing at Duke (think the Devils will be motivated?) on Feb. 28.

By my projections, if State sweeps FSU and GT this week and then can score one road win, then the Pack is set up to get to 12 wins with a 2-2 finish against that monster, late February schedule.

In a perfect world, Kevin Keatts would probably like to have more depth, say a 10-man rotation. Nine played at Wake Forest, through Breon Pass only played four minutes.

Big man Dusan Mahorcic and big guard Jack Clark, both starters until they suffered injuries, could become available at some point. Keatts has indicated both are getting close to returning, but there is no timetable.

If you are Kevin Keatts, you have to balance the need for more depth with the need to maintain the chemistry with which this team is now playing.

I mean NC State has a chance to win 12 ACC Games! That’s a really big deal. In fact it hasn’t happened since the league only played 12 games. Yep, the last time it happened was that magical year 1974.

Pack shows resilience in unlikely comeback win at Wake

D.J. Burns concluded a quiet first half with a play that would foretell his dramatic impact on the second half. With eight seconds left, Cameron Hildreth attacked the basket, looking to give Wake Forest a 39-28 lead. Instead, Burns blocked the shot and the Wolfpack scurried the other way. With one second left, Jarkel Joiner knocked in a three. Instead of being down 11 at intermission, NC State trailed by just 6.

Prior to Saturday, Wake had turned back 10 of the 11 visitors to Joel Coliseum, including first place Clemson. The Deacons’ only home loss came at the hands of Virginia 76-67. But Wake followed that one home loss with a brutal 81-79 road defeat at Pitt. And so Steve Forbes’ club desperately needed a win at home against NC State, to avoid a third straight loss and a commensurate hit to its NCAA chances.

For much of the afternoon, Wake appeared to be doing just that. A transition basket by Hildreth put the Deacons up by double digits. A three ball by Daivien Williamson took the lead to 60-51 with a mere ten minutes to play in the game. And then Terquavion Smith, the ACC’s leading scorer, picked up his fourth foul.

With Smith in the game, NC State had merely traded baskets with Wake in the second half, unable to cut into the Deacons’ lead. How would the Wolfpack mount a comeback with its best player on the bench?

The five on the court found a way. Much as the Wolfpack regrouped and moved on following the injuries to Dusan Mahorcic and Jack Clark, State fought back without an on court contribution from Smith.

Improbably, the Wolfpack made eight consecutive shots from the floor, mostly by Burns and Joiner.

The comeback began with Burns scoring on a put back. Then he hit a jumper. The big guy used the glass the third time down and picked up two more points. He scored against a double team!

Burns then missed two free throws – NC State was just 2 for 11 at one point from the foul line. Yet still the Pack continued to cut into the Deacons’ lead.

Joiner hit a jumper. Then Joiner scored in transition and buried a three, the latter two baskets sandwiched around another DJB layup. Game tied.

Wake Forest matched NC State’s sudden hot hand for a time, scoring on four of six trips down court. Though Forbes would later say his team “didn’t play very good offense in the second half,” scoring on four of six possessions is none too shabby. But the Deacons eventually seemed to hit a wall offensively. After Tyrone Appleby’s alley-oop pass to Matthew Marsh, put Wake up seven, the Wolfpack took control.

Williamson missed a three. NC State’s Ebenezer Dowuna, spelling Burns, blocked Wake Forest field goal attempts on consecutive trips down the court. Following that, Hildreth was forced to launch a desperation three as the shot clock expired. Now it was anybody’s game.

Burns replaced Dowuna after his brief rest and promptly scored with his left hand to put State up 64-62. The Wolfpack would never trail again.

Wake experimented with putting a double team on Burns. He quickly passed to L.J. Thomas who connected from beyond the arc.

Casey Morsell, quiet much of the day, also added a three, to put the Pack up 70-66.

Free throws kept Wake Forest in the game. The Deacons made 18-22 on the afternoon, and two charity tosses by Appleby brought the home team within one at 72-71. State made one of two at the other end, but Damari Monsanto, Wake’s leading scorer with 22 points, scored off an out of bounds play to tie the game at 73.

Smith then returned for State and Terquavion made the game’s biggest hoop on a drive to the basket. And then free throws, a liability for the Wolfpack for the first 38 minutes, suddenly provided a path to victory. Burns made his last three at the free throw line. Joiner hit two more to lock up the game. And that was just enough to complete this unlikely comeback win.