Holliday: Crisis on the court at Carolina or just a really bad week?

By Bob Holliday, WRALSportsFan columnist

Chapel Hill, N.C. — North Carolina lost by 28 points at Miami and followed that with a 22 point blowout at Wake Forest. That’s two losses by a collective 50 points in a five day span.

This is arguably the worst week Carolina has experienced since the 8-20 season of 2002. In early January 20 years ago, UNC lost at home to Wake by 22, and then followed that with a 33 point debacle at Maryland.

But the 2002 team was a poor outfit, a unit that needed a falling out of bounds timeout (still legal in 2002) to subdue mighty Binghamton 61-60. This UNC team of Hubert Davis has been a good team about two-thirds of the time. But when things go wrong for the 2022 Tar Heels, they go really wrong.

Now, UNC did win Monday night against Virginia Tech at home. The Tar Heels remain unbeaten in the Smith Center, now 10-0. They have seven more ACC home games and just five more road games. But to make the NCAA Tournament they will likely need more road wins.

As recently as Saturday UNC ranked 40th in the NET rankings, one of the NCAA’s key measuring tools for tournament consideration. Even after the drubbing at Wake, the Heels rank #51 in the NET, ahead of ACC kingpins Florida State and Miami. UNC has 13 wins overall and could have become part of a tie atop the ACC had the Tar Heels been able to defeat the Deacons. Instead, the way things fell apart at the Joel Coliseum begs for closer scrutiny of this team’s performance in certain games-to this point, all away from home.

UNC suffered a close loss at Notre Dame by five points, and a moderately close loss against Purdue by nine points. The other four losses—to Tennessee, Kentucky, Miami, and Wake Forest, total deficits of 96 points, an unthinkable 24 points per defeat.

It’s not hard to find common denominators in those non-competitive losses. UNC shot poorly in each outing, exacerbating its offensive issues with 50 turnovers in the four games.

But the defensive numbers look even worse. Actually much worse. Tennessee shot 54% from the field and 45% from three. Kentucky hit on 54% overall and 53% from three. Miami shot a blistering 58% in the first half when the game was being decided, and finished at 46% from beyond the arc. Wake Forest shot a mere 38% from long distance but hit 54% overall, thanks to a whopping 26 points on fast breaks.

Here’s another common denominator: No second half comeback. Most good teams that fall behind by double digits in the first half, make adjustments, play harder and make the second half more competitive. UNC in these four losses continued to struggle. There was no comeback.

That perhaps speaks to a lack of leadership on the court, a point raised this week by both Coach Hubert Davis and star big man Armando Bacot.

Meanwhile, Joel Berry, the unquestioned leader of UNC’s 2017 national championship team, finds himself in the awkward position of having to explain the Tar Heels’ puzzling performances in 2022. Berry, a new analyst this season for the ACC Network, knows a great deal about leadership and defense; we saw that when he was voted MVP of the Final Four. But clearly the culture of Tar Heels’ 2022 differs more than somewhat from the dynamics on the Roy Williams’ teams on which Berry played.

If Hubert Davis and the numerous veteran players on this UNC team are to have any chance of making the NCAA Tournament, these intangibles, leadership and the compete factor, must be confronted, especially when playing from behind in big road games.

In the meantime there are things tangible-hard numbers that need improvement, especially on the defensive end.

For starters, this team does not defend the three point line. In ACC only games, and these are now the ones that matter-teams shoot 38% from beyond the arc against UNC. Only Boston College, NC State, and Virginia are more generous. But there are more issues.

*Blocked shots: UNC ranks 12th in this category averaging 2.57 per game. For comparison, NC State, even though the Wolfpack is having to play without shot blocker supreme Manny Bates, averages 2.89. UNC’s lack of rim protection makes the Tar Heels vulnerable inside, even as they are vulnerable outside.

*Steals: Throughout the coaching eras of Dean Smith and Roy Williams, UNC has been known for defensive pressure that has led to steals. Not this team. UNC ranks 13th league wide in this category, recording 4.71 steals per game. Miami, which leads the ACC, steals the ball almost 10 times per game.

*Turnover margin: Not only do the Tar Heels not force turnovers, getting just 8.71 per game, they give the ball away 12 times per game-a net deficit of 3.29. That stat ranks 14th in the league, and of course there are only 15 teams.

What this means is that UNC at present does not make the type of plays defensively that help the offense with easy baskets. And at the same time, the Tar Heel offense is too often coughing up the basketball, and that is leading to easy baskets for opponents (See Miami, Wake Forest).

We saw the value of better defensive play in the win over Virginia Tech. The Hokies did shoot well against Carolina—46.6% overall and 38.9% from three, both above their ACC norms. But the Tar Heels blocked four shots and made six steals. UNC actually won the turnover battle and outscored VT in points off turnovers. So Monday night produced more big defensive plays- a big step in the right direction. Can the team build off this? Away from home?

The defensive woes we typically see in big Tar Heel road games create great pressure on UNC’s normally capable offense. The Tar Heels rank third in scoring at 76 points per game, and fifth in three point shooting at 38.9%. UNC ranks among the league’s best offensive rebounding teams; at Wake Forest the Heels snagged 23 offensive boards on 61 missed shots, and that kept them in the game for awhile.

UNC is getting good ball movement. The Tar Heels are second in assists, averaging almost 16 per game.

However, accrual of most of these good numbers has come in home wins in games where the Tar Heels were able to easily get the ball to Bacot. Miami and Wake Forest both put more defensive pressure on the big guy. Bacot ground his way to double doubles in both games, but did not score a field goal in the first 12 minutes against Miami. At Wake Forest, Bacot needed 12 shots to score 4 field goals. Against Virginia Tech, Bacot scored UNC’s first eight points, rolling along with ease as he did against Virginia and Georgia Tech. But then the Hokies’ coach Mike Young adjusted his defense. VT’s man to man became more compact, sagging into the paint almost as if the defense were a zone. Bacot made just 3 of his final 15 shots.

The Hokies fiercely defended the lane against guards driving to the basket also. Caleb Love and R.J. Davis, like Bacot, had trouble scoring in the lane. UNC only shot 34% from two point land Monday night. However, Love and Davis drew fouls and the Tar Heels actually feasted from the charity stripe making 22 of 26 free throws for 84.6%.

When Bacot isn’t getting easy two’s inside, Love and Davis often find the lane clogged when they attack the basket. The guards were able to score on a few drives and as mentioned, rack up tons of free throws against Tech, but more and more opponents are challenging the Tar Heels inside and forcing them outside. Most games this means UNC needs Brady Manek, along with Love and Davis to make threes and stretch the defense. Of course, the Heels’ outside shooting has run hot and cold.

Manek hit 3-7 and Davis 2-4 at Wake Forest, but Love went 1-6 and the rest of the team 0-11. At Miami, no one made threes in a dismal 6-30 night beyond the arc.

Three point shooting played a huge part in Carolina’s win over Tech. UNC hit 10-25 for 40%, the two biggest coming from Manek, who hit a three with 14:27 to go giving UNC a 50-44 lead and another three 8:20 later putting UNC up 57-52. The Tar Heels did not make a single field goal otherwise during that drought but kept the lead thanks to gritty defense.

Fast break baskets off opponent misses or turnovers can be a big help, but both Miami and Wake Forest took away transition. So UNC had to play half court offense almost every possession.

Going forward, Carolina will have nights at home where the ball goes in. Love and Davis are both improved over last season. The addition of Manek to the offense has been a huge boost, even if the other transfers brought in this year are not making much of an impact on offense. Also the Tar Heels will see at least a few more teams who can’t defend Bacot-then the rest of the game becomes easy.

But the type of substantial improvement required to beat the ACC’s best teams at their place has to start at the defensive end. Leaky Black is one of the league’s better defenders, but he can’t guard everybody; and while he played quite well offensively against Virginia Tech with 10 points, there are games where UNC seems to be playing 4 on 5 with him on the floor in the half court offense.

So Black’s teammates must step it up defensively. Love and Davis must do a better job of stopping dribble penetration. Also closing out on three point shooters. The entire team must do a better job fighting through screens. More blocks from Bacot and more steals from the perimeter, as we saw Monday night, would also help.

However UNC’s biggest issue defensively is guarding mobile big men. Sam Waardenburg of Miami, not known for his offense, had a career night against Carolina swishing five of six threes for 21 points.

Jake LaRavia of Wake Forest, who is known for his offense, poured in 31 points on 9-13 from the floor. Coach Davis, after watching Manek, Dawson Garcia, and Justin McKoy all fail to defend LaRavia, even put Black on him for a few possessions. That didn’t work either.

It’s too late in 2022 for Davis to recruit some guys who can defend mobile big men. And the Tar Heels haven’t even yet seen the ACC’s best stretch four Paolo Banchero. The Duke star must be positively salivating over having two opportunities to play against UNC’s beleaguered defenders.

Still, many may now view Carolina’s near future through different filters after the win over Virginia Tech. Indeed, this team’s track record at home suggests the Tar Heels will be favored in every home game except Duke and Florida State, though I personally think the Heels could be in for a long day against NC State Saturday if their bigs can’t shoot a better percentage inside against the Wolfpack’s injury depleted front line.

But to truly stay in the ACC race—and the postseason hunt—UNC must find a way to keep manufacturing some of what we saw in Monday night’s home win and transplant those successes in hostile territory during the five remaining road trips.

UNC’s path to victory in big road games, remains quite narrow, regardless of what we’re seeing at home this week against VT, Boston College, and NC State.

Given this team’s apparently fragile confidence shooting the basketball, physical challenges guarding dynamic big men on the perimeter, and recent history competing against good teams in hostile environments with no established team leader to help rally the troops from behind, UNC needs the very best that every starter and every bench player has to give.

Monday night’s execution was good enough to win in Chapel Hill, but winning the return meeting next month in Blacksburg will require a great deal more.