Holliday: Devils and Pack go dancing, Heels call it a night

By Bob Holliday, WRAL Sports contributor

The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee certainly didn’t roll out the red carpet for the Atlantic Coast Conference but also didn’t completely shaft the ACC, which historically has outperformed every other conference in America’s favorite tournament.

Virginia and Miami, as expected were accorded good seeds, 4 and 5 respectively. Duke, which certainly made a case this past week for a top 4 seed and placement in Greensboro, was given a 5 seed and a trip to Orlando. Not terrible, but maybe the Blue Devils deserved a little better.

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The committee awarded NC State a #11 seed without a play in game, bringing relief to Wolfpack fans who kept hearing their team was on the bubble and at best would have to play a game in Dayton if admitted to the Dance at all.

Pitt, one of the ACC’s highest achieving teams until the end of February, was assigned that trip to Dayton. If the Panthers can beat Mississippi State they will represent the ACC in a first round game at the Greensboro Coliseum.

So once again, ACC coaches, players and fans feel like their league has been overlooked. I mean c’mon, the ACC has sent at least one team to the Sweet Sixteen since Black Sunday in 1979. That’s 43 straight years. No other league comes close. Also, last year, the ACC was similarly disrespected and sent three teams to the Elite Eight and two to the Final Four. What does 2023 hold? Duke appears poised for a deep run, and NC State has the talent and scheme to win some games.

Duke takes long winning streak to Orlando

Here in March, when it matters most, Duke looks like a Final Four team. Always dominant on the glass this season, Duke during January and especially February became in Coach Jon Scheyer’s words “elite defensively.” And this past week at the ACC Tournament Duke’s offense improved by a quantum. The Blue Devils put up 96 on a good Pitt team, outran the #1 seed Miami in an 85-78 thriller, then won a grinding game against Virginia 59-49, playing great defense and making more than enough clutch shots at the other end.

It wasn’t always this way for Duke’s first year coach. The Blue Devils did begin the year ranked #7 and gave powerhouse Kansas a four point game in mid November. The Blue Devils got blown out by Purdue, like Kansas a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Duke finished its non conference campaign with a record of 9-2.

But Duke’s development was delayed by injuries and the injury bug hit really hard as conference play began.

Duke leans heavily on freshmen; five of the Blue Devils’ top eight are just one year removed from high school. The steep learning curve for freshmen in the ACC became even steeper for Dariq Whitehead when he broke his foot in October and really couldn’t contribute until December. Dereck Lively suffered a calf injury in the preseason. He played some against Kansas, but like Whitehead, wasn’t able to fully make an impact until the second half of the season.

Duke’s worst setback was Jeremy Roach’s toe injury. Roach suffered the toe problem in late November against Purdue and tried to play through it during December. Ultimately, he made the decision to sit out Duke’s conference games against Boston College, Pitt, and Clemson. Duke barely survived without its team leader against the Eagles and Panthers. Duke lost to Clemson without Roach. At that point in the season Duke stood just 4-3 in ACC play.

The upside of Roach’s injury is that freshman Tyrese Proctor had to take over point guard duties. He did so well at this all important position that Roach came back as a free-wheeling two guard. In his first game back against Miami at Cameron, Roach scored 14 points yet still handed out 4 assists, leaving Canes Coach Jim Larranaga to wish the teams had played a week earlier when Roach was still on the bench.

Duke suffered one other injury. Kyle Filipowski, on the fateful last second play at Virginia where he was fouled but ultimately denied a chance to shoot free throws, sprained his ankle on that play. The conference ruled the next day Filipowski should have been allowed to shoot for the win, but of course that point was academic since Virginia had already been granted victory in overtime. The angered Blue Devils have not lost since that day, February 11. And Filipowski’s ankle did not prevent him from scoring in double figures each and every night out afterward.

Filipowski kept playing through his injury but Whitehead and Lively, even after recovering from their preseason problems missed ACC games. Whitehead in fact could not play in five conference contests. Lively missed one.

But now the Duke freshmen are healthy and improving dramatically each game. The Blue Devils have lost just one time this season when playing with their full complement of key players.

Now headed to Orlando to face Oral Roberts, and then perhaps Tennessee, Duke is playing its best basketball of the season. But the Blue Devils have a tough draw facing ORU, which has won 27 of its last 28. Two years ago the Golden Eagles knocked off Florida and Ohio State en route to the Sweet Sixteen. This 2023 team has an award winning head coach in Paul Mills, a 7’5 center in Conner Vanover, and a super point guard in Max Abmas.

Still, Duke is playing its best basketball of the season headed to the Big Dance. We could start with Kyle Filipowski, winner of the Everett Case Award as the MVP of the ACC Tournament.

Filipowski averaged almost 20 points per game in Greensboro and led all participants in field goal percentage, shooting 67%. The 7 footer also led Duke in rebounding, snaring 7 boards per game. Filipowski’s three point game really came together in Greensboro. The big guy hit 6-13 from beyond the arc.

So as defenders came out to pressure Filipowski 20 feet from the basket, more driving lanes developed, allowing Duke’s skilled operators—including Filipowski—to take the ball to the basket. Filipowski showed the ability to put the ball on the floor, and then put up a runner, or a floater, or a pull up jumper, or of course, a dunk.

7’1 Dereck Lively II has been Duke’s “designated dunker” most of the season. Prior to the ACC Tournament, 47 of Lively’s 60 baskets had been dunks. In Greensboro, though, Lively’s offensive game evolved seemingly all at once, with a backdoor layup, a hook shot, and even a three ball against Pitt. As Lively continues to diversity his own offensive game, that can only help his Duke teammates.

Duke’s backcourt played well in the ACC Tournament against good defenses. Roach scored 45 points-23 in the title game vs. Virginia-and handed out 8 assists. Proctor scored 31 points with a whopping 18 assists.

The freshmen guard-forwards had their moments in Greensboro. Dariq Whitehead scored 16 points in the semi-final against Miami. Twice Whitehead made three straight free throws when fouled on a three point shot. Duke perhaps doesn’t beat Miami if Whitehead doesn’t convert the second three point foul with his team leading just 68-67. Meanwhile Mark Mitchell put up 12 and 5 in the blowout win over Pittsburgh.

Duke continues to get steady play off the bench from its oldest veterans Jacob Grandison and Ryan Young. The collective result: Duke’s offense looks dramatically better now than it did during the regular season.

No team puts up big numbers against Virginia of course, but in Duke’s other two ACC games the Blue Devils averaged 90 points and shot 48% from 3 and 58% overall, the improved marksmanship a f unction mostly of dynamic passing—43 assists in two games.

I asked Scheyer about Duke’s sudden offensive improvement. “I think you have to look at the season in stages,” he said. “I don’t think it’s a coincidence how we’re putting it together on both ends where we’ve had continuity with the lineup. The offense probably has been a step behind the defense, but the defense is elite, good as anybody’s in the country.”

Certainly that was true at the ACC Tourney. Duke held opponents to 65 points per game and 41% from the floor. The Blue Devils aggressively protected the three point line. Teams shot just 17-61 from three for 27%. Duke also averaged 7 steals per game and three blocks per game. The steals figure is well above the Blue Devils’ average during the regular season.

And those steals helped Duke get more transition chances, which powered the offense in the first two games. Meanwhile, Duke continues to be one of the best rebounding teams in the country.

By any measure, Duke looks positioned for a deep NCAA run. No coach in America wants the Blue Devils in his bracket.

NC State heads west

NC State during the Jim Valvano era, compiled so much good history west of the Mississipppi River. Places like Corvallis, Salt Lake City and Albuquerque have special meaning for long-time NC State fans.

Now comes a trip to Denver, where the Wolfpack will play a Creighton team just two years removed from a trip to the Sweet Sixteen. Can the Pack create more magic in the wild, wild west?

NC State enters the NCAA Tournament as an 11 seed, having lost only to #1 seed Kansas during a 10-1 non-conference campaign.

Inside the much-maligned ACC, the Wolfpack finished 12-8, with wins over 5 seeds Duke and Miami. To make this 23-win season possible, Coach Kevin Keatts had to do a major roster overhaul in West Raleigh. Keatts brought in Jack Clark, Dusan Mahorcic (injured since December) D.J. Burns, L.J. Thomas and most of all Jarkel Joiner to transform the NC State program from Keatts’ worst season (11-21) in 2022 to possibly his best in 2023.

Burns provides a much-needed post presence for State, but by and large this team relies on defense and three point shooting to win games. And here’s the thing, the three-point shooting is typically better when the Wolfpack’s defense forces turnovers that create transition opportunities.

NC State was able to play its preferred fast tempo against Virginia Tech and hit 11-24 from beyond the arc.

Against Clemson, which plays a slower, half court oriented game, the Pack hit just 5-20 from three. Keatts felt his team ran out of gas in the second half when Clemson outscored State 41-18. But also note that game was not played at the Pack’s pace.

NC State should be fully rested for Creighton, as it was for Virginia Tech.

Creighton will challenge NC State inside with 7 foot Ryan Kalkbrenner. State can counter with 6’11 Ebenezer Dowuona if the 6’9 Burns gets in foul trouble. Kalkbrenner averages 15 points per game but he gets plenty of help. The Blue Jays’ other four starters: Trey Alexander, Baylor Schlerman, Arthur Kaluma, and Ryan Nembhard all average in double figures like Kalkbrenner.

Still, this 6 vs 11 matchup could favor NC State. Why? Because of the style of game we are likely to see.

Creighton played lots of different tempos en route to its third place finish in the formidable Big East Conference. But generally Coach Greg McDermott’s teams like it fast.

The Blue Jays scored 80 points or more eight times this season and 90 plus on four other occasions. Creighton broke the century mark against St. John’s.

While Creighton averages 77 points per game, similar to NC State, this team ranks just 271st nationally in turnovers, averaging a whopping 12 per game.

NC State meanwhile, led the ACC in turnovers forced, snatching more than 13 per game. The Pack also led the ACC in steals at 8 per game. So Keatts’ team should be able to create some takeaways Friday in Denver.

Turnovers, especially against a team that also favors high scoring games, should create the right environment for Terquavion Smith, Casey Morsell, and Jarkel Joiner to score in bunches on fast breaks and transition threes.

If the Wolfpack can win the turnover battle as expected and also outshoot Creighton from three, a likely match up with Baylor will follow. And then NC State could move on to the next goal—the first trip to the Sweet Sixteen since 2015.

Heels decide to move on

In a 68-team NCAA field, UNC ranked #71, the third-to-last team left out of the tournament.

The Tar Heels had so many chances to change the math, starting with that fateful November weekend in Portland. UNC in consecutive games, lost to #6 NCAA seed Iowa State 70-65, and to overall #1 seed Alabama 103-101 in four overtimes. Win those games, especially the “battle with Bama,” and the Tar Heels are in the NCAA Tournament in spite of their 11-9 ACC record.

And the Heels had numerous opportunities to bolster their resume in the conference, but they lost so many games after taking a second half lead. In fact, all nine ACC losses came by eight points or less.

The veterans on this team made the decision last spring to return-with an eye on capturing the national championship that narrowly eluded them in 2022.

With four starters returning and the highly acclaimed Pete Nance of Northwestern replacing Brady Manek at the stretch four position, the Tar Heels were voted preseason #1. But as things played out, they became the first preseason #1 to miss the Big Dance since the expansion of the field to 64.

Above all, the offense did not move as it did in 2022 without Brady. Manek, who was not only a superb long range shooter and a good passer, constantly moved without the ball; Manek always seemed to be looking for an open three, some space in the paint to launch a drive, or a post up on the low block.

This year’s team played more one on one basketball at times, and finished near the bottom of the ACC in assists.

Having that season long focus on the NCAA Tournament, it did not surprise that North Carolina turned down a bid to the NIT. As Coach Hubert Davis said in a statement, “we believe now is the time to focus on moving ahead, and preparing for next season.”

Both Nance and Leaky Black are out of eligibility. Armando Bacot, R.J. Davis, and Caleb Love may look to play professionally or enter the transfer portal, though it’s not out of the question that one or two of the three may decide to spend one more year in Chapel Hill.

Some on UNC’s underused bench could enter the transfer portal, though clearly playing time awaits for at least some who decide to stay.

Talent remains in Chapel Hill, especially if 2023-24 recruits honor their commitments. But next year’s Tar Heel team could look very very different.