Holliday: Heels dominated by Notre Dame in a down week for the ACC

By Bob Holliday, WRAL Sports contributor

It was the week when the ACC announced it was moving on from 69 years of history in Greensboro to relocate the conference headquarters in Uptown Charlotte; and coincidentally, of course, it was also the week the league suffered its first flurry of negative news on the gridiron this entire 2022 season.

ACC teams won six of the first eleven games played against the Power Five conferences, but those fortunes faded quickly in Week Four. Virginia Tech got whipped at home by West Virginia; Duke came up short at Kansas, though the Blue Devils played quite respectably on the road; and undefeated North Carolina was overwhelmed by a Notre Dame team that looked quite shaky in its two previous games. Add to that the implosion of Mario Cristobal’s Miami at home against Middle Tennessee, and we’re just about guaranteed a revision in the ACC’s once rosy reviews.

The timing of these losses is unfortunate. From here on, ACC teams almost exclusively play each other until the final week of the season, by which time the College Football Playoff Committee will have largely made up its mind about the relative strength of conferences. The ACC still has three more games against Notre Dame. But here’s the thing: the ACC can’t beat Notre Dame. The Irish have now won 25 straight regular season meetings.

Within the ACC there was good news. All of it in the Atlantic Division. Clemson slipped past Wake Forest 51-45 in an epic double overtime thriller. NC State crushed Connecticut 41-10, as Devin Leary re-connected with big wide receiver Devin Carter. Florida State pummeled Boston College to improve to 4-0. Syracuse also remained unbeaten with a narrow escape against Virginia.

Don’t look now NC State fans, but the Clemson, Florida State and Syracuse are the Wolfpack’s next three opponents, with two of the three on the road.

FSU joined Clemson, NC State, and Wake Forest in the AP Top 25 this week and Syracuse is also now getting some votes. So the Atlantic Division could point the way to the playoffs for the ACC as long as one or two teams emerge with strong records and division opponents don’t merely beat up on each other.

However, since the ACC doesn’t move to the new “One versus Two” format for its conference championship game until 2023, the league needs a healthy Coastal Division. All was well in the Coastal through Week Three. But in Week Four, #25 Miami, thought to now be playing consistent football after all these years under no nonsense coach Mario Cristobal, reverted to its former self—a decisive home loss to unheralded Middle Tennessee reminding us why the Hurricanes have not won any ACC Football Championships in 18 seasons. And Carolina, unranked but undefeated, showed that the defensive rebuild under much acclaimed Assistant Coach Gene Chizik, remains in disarray after the Tar Heels gave up 45 points to a team that was averaging just 18.

And that’s the big story this week in these parts. That the team with one of the five best offenses in America could not compete with the program the ACC most needs wins against.

Tar Heels trouble against the Irish

No ACC team has endured more defeats at the hands of Notre Dame than North Carolina. The Tar Heels have exactly two wins in 21 meetings, the last in 2008—and technically that game was forfeited as the university sought to mitigate NCAA sanctions after the academic scandal of the early 2000’s.

UNC battled pretty evenly with the Irish through three quarters in 2020 and again in 2021, leading to hope among the sellout crowd at Kenan Stadium that 2022 might bring a victory. But Notre Dame ended all doubt about Saturday’s contest early in the third quarter.

Mack Brown said post game that Notre Dame Saturday might have been the best team UNC has played during the years since his return to Chapel Hill. Certainly the gap between the programs looked much wider here in 2022.

The game started with Drake Maye running and passing the Tar Heels to a touchdown on the opening drive.

The defense played well in the beginning, forcing a three and out on Notre Dame’s first possession then holding the Irish to a field goal-which was missed-on the second drive.

Notre Dame’s third series began quietly enough as the Tar Heel front held Logan Diggs to three yards on two runs. Then it happened. On third and seven at the Notre Dame 25, Drew Pyne, who was pressured in the pocket, escaped for 12 yards and a first down.

And has happened so often this season for UNC’s embattled defense, one big third down conversion led to disaster. On the very next play, Diggs ran a downfield pattern which no one picked up. 34 yards. The Irish scored four plays later.

Notre Dame scored touchdowns on five of six possessions, and capped the other drive with a field goal. Ballgame.

UNC suffered more breakdowns to be sure—identifying receivers coming out of the backfield seems to be a particular problem this season. But mostly, the Tar Heels were pushed around by Notre Dame’s big, experienced offensive line and three strong, physical running backs.

UNC’s defense faced two primary issues against the Irish:

1. Diagnosing the play and getting pursuing defenders to the ball
2. Actually getting the ball carrier on the ground.

Notre Dame rushed for 287 yards. I would bet that at least 100 of those yards came after contact. Maybe more. Time after time,

UNC defenders would rally to the football, only to see Diggs, Chris Tyree, and especially Audric Estime turn what should have been a two yard run into a gain of five or even six yards.

And when a team can run like that, pass defense becomes much more problematic, especially with a UNC secondary that has scar tissue from coverage busts against App State and Georgia State.

Notre Dame outscored UNC 38-7 after that opening score. And the offense played a part in that. Maye did throw a second touchdown pass to Josh Downs to tie the game at 14. But on UNC’s first series in the third quarter Maye fumbled.

Notre Dame boasts a strong defensive front. The Irish normally rush with just four on pass plays. But on their first defensive series of the second half, Notre Dame blitzed, for the first and only time. Maye literally dropped the football. This was an easy recovery and an easy touchdown drive for the Irish.

Statistically, at least, North Carolina offense did things Notre Dame’s previous opponents – Ohio State, Marshall, Cal – could not do. The Tar Heels scored 32 points and Maye passed for 301 yards and five touchdowns. Maye and Antoine Greene twice beat the Irish deep, once on 1st and 15 from the 20, the second coming on 4th and 21 at the 36. Those big plays provided some hope for UNC fans going forward.

At the same time, much of Carolina’s offense came after the outcome was decided. And, UNC’s backs could not run effectively against the Irish. Maye was the Tar Heels’ leading rusher with 37 yards. Omarion Hampton rushed 10-28. D. J. Jones, Caleb Hood, and George Pettaway combined for five carries but just a collective two yards.

The Phil Longo offense is predicated on running the football. Maye’s job as a passer becomes much more difficult if the running backs aren’t producing at least some chunk plays. The ground game is of particular concern this week in that upcoming opponent Virginia Tech allows just 86 yards rushing per game. Also, remnants of Hurricane Ian could very well dump several inches of rain at Kenan Stadium Saturday, putting even more importance on the offensive line’s ability to create room to run.

Still, UNC’s short term future in 2022 largely depends on the defensive side of the ball. Tar Heel defenses during the last two years of Brown’s first stint in Chapel Hill rank among the best in school history. And indeed recruiting during Brown’s second tour of duty is as strong as it ever was in the 90’s. For three years running UNC recruiting classes have ranked among the Top 15 in America, with the 2022 class ranked #8. Not all of the blue chippers play offense. So the Tar Heels have talent on defense. But that has not led to any appreciable success stopping opponents, either under Jay Bateman or now under Chizik.

Critical year for the ACC

The importance of this season for the ACC has been well-chronicled. The league faces an uncertain future, due to the growth and much larger payouts of the Big Ten and the SEC. Football success is a must as the conference leadership looks for new ways—in addition to the grant of rights—to bind the membership together and discourage potential defectors. So winning Power Five games, sending at least one team to the playoffs, and competing for the national championship are all pre-requisites for boosting the ACC’s football profile.

The Atlantic Division is strong again this season, but the Coastal must not wither away. The ACC needs a winning Miami program and a strong showing from the Mack Brown North Carolina brand to challenge Pitt and insure the Atlantic champion will face a formidable Coastal opponent. If Duke or one of the Virginia schools gets it going so much the better.

The best premise for long term security of course, is for Notre Dame to become a full member of the ACC. But Notre Dame will not surrender its coveted football independence as long as the university enjoys a lucrative TV contract with NBC and as long as the Irish can compete for a spot in the playoffs.

Now, playoff expansion could be coming in the next few years, and thus far the plan is to expand to 12 teams but restrict the top four seeds to conference champions only. So Notre Dame, as an independent, could find itself seeded anywhere from 5-12 in future years—a negative to be sure but not enough for the folks in South Bend to change course.

No, to make joining a conference attractive, the ACC will likely have to pass Notre Dame in the rankings with at least five, maybe six teams and do it consistently. ACC teams must boost perceptions of the top half of the league while simultaneously diminishing Notre Dame.

There is ample opportunity to do that as, by contract, five ACC teams get a crack at the Irish each season. But again, Notre Dame has won 25 straight regular season games against the ACC. So Notre Dame is currently pushing the ACC down, while boosting its own cause.

Nothing will change until ACC teams start winning multiple games against the Irish—as happened in 2016 when Duke, NC State, and Virginia Tech all defeated Notre Dame. North Carolina had a golden opportunity last Saturday to put the Irish down at a time when the Notre Dame program, at 1-2, was in a vulnerable position. The Tar Heels could not capitalize, as the Irish played their best game of the season by far.

However, Notre Dame must still face Syracuse in the Dome and Clemson at home, two solid chances for ACC Power Five wins. The stakes could not be any higher.