Holliday: Heels look to regroup ahead of ACC title game

By Bob Holliday, WRAL Sports contributor

On the final weekend of the best season in Big Four history, Coastal Champion North Carolina looked like the least worthy of the Big Four to line up against Atlantic Champion Clemson.

Though the 9-3 Tar Heels rallied against 8-4 NC State and gave themselves a chance to win in overtime, The Wolfpack never trailed in the game, as erstwhile scout team quarterback Ben Finley outplayed ACC Player of the Year candidate Drake Maye. Meanwhile, Duke and Wake Forest hooked up in a 34-31 shootout with Riley Leonard and Sam Hartman combining for almost 750 yards passing in the Blue Devils’ thrilling last minute victory.

So the conclusion of the regular season brought little in the way of an endorsement for UNC’s chances Saturday in Charlotte in this final season of two divisions in the Atlantic Coast Conference. In fact, the Thanksgiving weekend results really reinforce the league’s decision to merge the Atlantic and Coastal divisions for 2023. Currently the Atlantic Division sports six bowl eligible teams while the Coastal counts just three. Clemson had a more difficult path to the championship game than did UNC.

And yet UNC, by the rules of 2022, fairly and squarely earned a chance to try to take down the Tigers. The Tar Heels used their explosive offense to post key wins over Duke, Pitt, and Wake Forest. Problem is, they hit the nine win plateau against Wake and haven’t won since. And their offense has struggled since.

There are several possible explanations for UNC’s sudden power outage.

Maybe the “Drake Maye for Heisman” campaign, which heated up after he threw for 448 yards in winning his duel with Hartman, has put too much pressure on the freshman sensation.

No doubt both Georgia Tech and NC State figured out how to contain Maye, and take away the chunk plays that make UNC’s offense so dangerous. NC State, for example, did not allow a single run over 16 yards or a single pass that covered more than 19 yards.

And maybe UNC’s offensive line has not protected Maye as well the last two weeks, especially on the right side. I mean in the past two games the Tar Heels have given up 8 sacks and 12 quarterback hurries. Drake Maye deserves better. Even more critical, opponents have really clamped down on some of the runs and short passes that help make the Phil Longo offense go. GT and State combined for 21 tackles for loss.

In any event, UNC coaches and team leaders have only a few days to get this offense back where it was in early November. And even that may not be enough against Clemson.

                                                     Tigers have some issues too

Clemson’s stunning home loss to arch rival South Carolina ended the Tigers’ slim hope of being selected for the four team College Football Playoff. So, will a program accustomed to playing for the national championship get fired up and focused for an ACC title and a bid to the Orange Bowl? Or will the ACC Championship Game against a UNC team the Tigers should beat become something of a ho-hummer for the men in Orange?

It’s not just the mental game that’s in question this week, Clemson has some physical issues as well. Offensively, Beaux Collins, the Tigers’ deep threat suffered an injury in the first half against USC and did not return. Defensively, star tackle Bryan Bresee has not played in several weeks. Linebacker Trenton Simpson left the game last weekend with an injury. And strong safety R.J. Mickens was ejected for targeting. He will miss the first half against UNC.

North Carolina is a very different team than South Carolina, but the Tar Heels will of course look closely at what Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks did to become the first team to win at Clemson since 2016.

First of course we saw “Beamer Ball II.” With the legendary Coach Frank Beamer looking on, the Gamecocks dominated special teams play, punting for an average of 53 yards, running a Clemson punt back 37 yards-were you watching that Josh Downs? And most of all forcing not one but two fumbles on punt returns. The first came after a safety had given the Tigers a 16-7 lead. Clemson’s Phil Mafah coughed it up, giving USC a short field at the 37 yard line. The second fumble was a killer late in the game, giving South Carolina the chance to run out the clock.

Most eye-opening for UNC is the success the Gamecocks’ Spencer Rattler had passing. Now the Tigers did score their first touchdown on a pick six, but Rattler wasn’t rattled. He later connected on passes of 23, 34, 32, 65, and 72 yards, all to different receivers. Drake Maye has the ability and the receivers to make those same long strikes-if he has time.

Clemson sacked Rattler three times and added five quarterback hurries. When the Tigers can pressure with their three down linemen and drop eight into coverage it can be very difficult to find an open receiver. But when the Tigers have to send an extra pass rusher or two in order to generate pressure, that can create one on one matchups in the secondary. Due to injuries, Clemson is playing three freshmen in its back line rotation. This is something UNC might be able to take advantage of-if and only if the Tar Heels can provide adequate pass protection.

Offensively for Clemson, D.J. Uiagalelei played his worst game of the season against the Gamecocks. DJU completed just 8-29 passes for 99 yards with one touchdown and one interception.

Uiagalelei’s previous worst game-at Notre Dame where we was briefly replaced by Cade Klubnick-saw him complete 27-39 for 191 yards; again one touchdown and one interception.

At 6’4, 235 pounds, DJU has become an effective runner. In ACC games he ranks third behind Maye and Leonard in quarterback rushing yards with 373. Between Uiagalelei and Will Shipley, Clemson has the ACC’s second best rushing attack, averaging 188 yards per game. Opponents when defending the zone read, which is a staple of the Tigers’ attack, must be award of both the quarterback and the running back.

UNC’s defense against the run has improved in recent weeks. The Tar Heels are eighth in league games, allowing 146 yards per game. Carolina limited NC State to just 59 yards in that double OT defeat. However, Ben Finley is not a running threat. DJU is and UNC will be hard pressed to slow Clemson’s ground game.

Passing is the greater wild card however. UNC rarely gets pressure on the QB without blitzing and allows 270 yards per game through the air. Only Wake Forest is worse.

Moreover, cornerback Tony Grimes did not play vs. NC State due to an injury. Cam’Ron Kelly and Storm Duck both left that game with injuries and did not return. Carolina made extensive use of three freshmen, Will Hardy, Marcus Allen, and Legond Cavazos against the Wolfpack. How will these freshmen fare under the bright lights of Bank of America Stadium?

For that matter how will DJU fare? His woeful passing performance was not the result of Gamecock pass pressure-just one sack and two hurries.

But Clemson does have good receivers-so that’s not the issue. Even if Collins can’t play, Antonio Williams ranks among the ACC’s top ten in receptions per game. Joseph Ngata and tight end Davis Allen are reliable targets and don’t overlook Shipley, who has almost 200 yards in catches out of the backfield.

Clemson has a strong offensive line, led by Jacobs Blocking Trophy winner Jordan McFadden. And again, UNC is not known for either pressure or coverage. So Uiagalelei will be expected to generate a passing attack for the Tigers to be sure of victory. If he can’t, Dabo Swinney will give Klubnick the ball. And Swinney may play Klubnick at times anyway, as he looks to the future.

Clemson averages 36 points per game in conference warfare. UNC, though 13th in total defense, ranks a respectable 8th in scoring defense, allowing about 26 points per game. And the Tar Heels usually defend better in the second half. The Heels’ chances for victory may hinge on avoiding a first half blowout. IF UNC can hold Clemson to 21 points in the first half, and then make halftime adjustments as they have been able to do in most games, then maybe the Tar Heels can generate enough offense to win.

But that’s a big “if” based on the last two weeks.

Also, Clemson’s defense is better statistically than either of the units that slowed the Tar Heel attack in Kenan Stadium these last two weeks.—though it is hard to imagine Clemson playing with the extreme effort we just saw from NC State against its hated (and that’s Dave Doeren’s word) rival. The key question is whether Clemson will focus its defense on containing Maye as GT and NCSU did—which allowed Elijah Green to gain 175 yards rushing—or do as Pitt did and stop the run first.

The Panthers’ strategy was superb against the ground game. UNC running backs combined gained a mere 25 yards. However Maye absolutely torched the Panthers through the air and also ran for 61 yards. Clemson, like Pitt, normally concentrates on stopping the run—both teams limit ACC opponents to 94 yards per game rushing. South Carolina only rushed for 54 yards. But of course the Gamecocks passed for 360.

Maye, who has a wealth of talented targets for his passes is fully capable of matching Spencer Rattler’s performance if he has time to throw and if he’s allowed to move out of the pocket.

UNC is undefeated on the road, though just 3-3 at home. I suspect Clemson boosters will buy more tickets than UNC fans—after all the Tigers come to Charlotte every December, while the Carolina faithful have only had a couple of weeks to make plans. Anyway, I think this will feel more like a road game for the Tar Heels even though it’s in Charlotte.

I see Clemson as a substantial favorite, because of UNC’s defensive weaknesses and recent offensive struggles. Should the Tigers win, the Tar Heels will fall behind both Clemson and Notre Dame in the ACC’s bowl pecking order, and NC State may be selected ahead of them as well.

But if Mack Brown’s bunch can somehow defy the odds, UNC would win an ACC title for the first time since 1980 and secure a rare ten win season. Also, wait for it…. The Tar Heels would earn a bid to the Orange Bowl. The stakes for Clemson may be a bit pedestrian this week. But for North Carolina, the stakes could not get any higher.