Holliday: Here's what lies ahead for NC State, UNC, Duke in Sweet 16 and beyond

By Bob Holliday, WRAL Sports contributor

Back in pre-pandemic times, the ACC typically sent seven, eight, even nine teams to the NCAA Tournament. Those days are gone. Since the NCAA Selection Committee started using the updated NET evaluating tool, ACC bids have begun to dwindle. Seven in 2021, five in 2022, five in 2023. Everyone knows about 2024.

The Selection Committee was, of course, fair to bluebloods North Carolina and Duke. The committee awarded Clemson a 6 seed based on the strength of the Tigers’ non-conference performance, especially the win at Alabama. But Virginia was a last minute afterthought, and of course the committee didn’t want to include NC State at all.

However the committee had no choice because the Wolfpack won the automatic bid that goes to the ACC Tournament champion; let’s all pause to thank the legendary Everett Case for making this tournament important back in the 1950s at a time when virtually no other conference conducted a season-ending tournament.

The NCAA, once upon a time, gave at least some small consideration to member schools based on past performance of their conference in the tournament. The ACC of course has had the best performance among conferences in the modern era. Anyway, in these NET days, past performance is irrelevant.

The ACC sent two teams to the Final Four in 2022 and one team to the Final Four in 2023. Doesn’t matter. The committee only wanted to give the ACC four bids this year. Maybe three.

It seems to me the teams actually getting the chance to play this March appear driven to prove their conference’s worth. So, while the eight-bid SEC dropped five of its first eight games, the ACC started 6-1, finishing the weekend 8-1.

Here’s the big stat: The Atlantic Coast Conference has reached the Sweet Sixteen for the 45th consecutive year, and this year has done it with four teams. No other conference comes close.

Other than UCLA’s run of seven straight NCAA titles in the late 60s and early 70s, the ACC’s Sweet Sixteen streak – which of course began the year after Black Sunday in 1979 when UNC and Duke both lost at Reynolds Coliseum in the second round – stands alone as the most important accomplishment in the annals of this tournament.

After a moment of reflection on that accomplished past, here's what we have to look forward to.

Heels are headed to Los Angeles with another crack at Alabama

North Carolina was the first to move on and assure this amazing streak would continue. The Tar Heels on Thursday disposed of undersized Wagner 90-62, but then faced a serious challenge from Michigan State. More than one pundit picked the Spartans to win this game.

For 13 minutes Tom Izzo’s team looked dominant. Led by Tyson Walker and Malik Hall, MSU built a double digit lead.

Then Hubert Davis went off. In a first half in-game interview with CBS’ Allie LaForce, Davis interrupted the reporter’s question: “We’re lettin’ ‘em catch the ball underneath the basket!” Davis hollered. “Until we meet the fight, then that’s when things will turn around.”

Davis delivered the same message in the huddle. Armando Bacot and Harrison Ingram took the coach’s words to heart. There were no more easy baskets for Sparty.

In fact, MSU scored just three points in the final 7:59 of the first half – on a free throw and a jump shot. UNC poured in 23 points during that span, including 9 from Ingram and 8 from Bacot.

Michigan State battled back in the second half, getting to within two points at 48-46. MSU Coach Tom Izzo credited two big blocks by Seth Trimble in helping to stop the Spartan rally. Also Izzo noted, when a guy banks in a three point shot just before the shot clock expires – as R.J. Davis did – that’s never a good sign. Izzo’s team outrebounded the Tar Heels 37-32 but committed 11 turnovers which led to 16 UNC points. Also UNC made 19 free throws while MSU only got to shoot 15. Disparities in turnovers and free throws helped Carolina pull away in the closing minutes 85-69.

North Carolina played Alabama in December 2022, a game that memorably spanned four overtimes in Oregon’s Phil Knight Classic. Mark Sears led the Tide with 24 points.

Well, Sears is still the man. He scored 26 in the Crimson Tides’ grind it out affair with Grand Canyon on Sunday.

72-61 is a very low score for Nate Oats’ squad, which often tops the century mark.

Alabama has played a very difficult schedule, with losses to Clemson, Purdue, Creighton, Arizona, Tennessee and Kentucky. At 24-11, Bama does not have the won-loss record typical of a four seed. But this is not a typical team. Alabama is quick on defense. In fact, quick on quick, really, on offense and defense.

Sunday, the Tide held Grand Canyon to 2-20 from three and 32% overall, collecting 21 points off turnovers.

But the main thing is that Alabama has one of the nation’s most potent offenses – scoring just 72 points is an outlier, one of the Tide’s two lowest scores all season. And shooting just 37% against GC? That is not Alabama basketball.

Do note that the Tide played without guard Lattrell Wrightsell, who took a shot to the head in round one. He should be available Thursday night in Los Angeles.

Alabama is deeper than North Carolina and plays at a break neck pace.

On the other hand, this team lacks bulk in the middle. Armando Bacot should have some success against Grant Nelson, 6’11 but just 230. And especially vs. Jarin Stevenson, who is 6’11 but weighs just 210. Stevenson of course played at Seaforth High School in Pittsboro and was heavily recruited by Hubert Davis.

Despite its great team speed, Alabama has been prone to defensive lapses at times. If the Tar Heels can take care of the ball (limit live ball turnovers), get more push downcourt from Elliott Cadeau, and defend as it did against Michigan State – with Trimble getting maybe 20 minutes guarding Sears, UNC has a good chance to move on. I think UNC has an edge in the post and a better halfcourt offense.

West final could bring Love

The West Regional Final should be one to remember if both North Carolina and Arizona advance. This of course would match the Tar Heels against their former star, the mercurial Caleb Love.

Love played well in ‘Zona’s 78-68 win over a good Dayton team, scoring 19 points with 5 rebounds. Love also contributed on the defensive end with a steal and a block as the Wildcats held the hot shooting Flyers to 40% from the floor with 14 turnovers.

Love is the Pac 12 Conference Player of the Year but the rest of Coach Tommy Lloyd’s roster is also imposing.

7 foot Oumar Ballo starts at center and he is backed up by 7’2 Motiejus Krivas. The two big guys combined for 12 points and 7 rebounds against Dayton but they are capable of more. Point guard Kylan Boswell had an off day against the Flyers but super soph Jaden Bradley and K.J. Lewis more than compensated for Boswell’s low production with 19 points and 4 rebounds. Arizona’s forwards are both dangerous. Keyshad Johnson scored 13 points with 7 rebounds. Veteran Pelle Larsson matched those totals and added 6 assists.

Arizona shot 53% – 44% from 3 – and held a slight edge on the glass. The only negative? 15 turnovers.

The Wildcats are 27-8 on the season and that includes a win at Duke. Should UNC and Arizona meet Saturday night in Los Angeles, the team that does the better job of controlling its emotions will have an advantage. And there will be emotions! Also, one thing we know, Caleb Love will make plays. And he will keep shooting. Even if his shots aren’t falling CL will keep shooting.

Now, Clemson has a chance to beat Arizona. Should the Tigers land in the Elite Eight opposite UNC, I’m pretty sure the Tar Heels will have a good scouting report from their devastating loss to the Tigers at the Smith Center back in February.

NC State, on big run, headed to Big D to meet Marquette

We all wondered how NC State would fare physically in Pittsburgh after its grueling five day run through the ACC gauntlet in Washington D.C. We shouldn’t have.

The Wolfpack took charge of its game against 6 seed Texas Tech late in the first half and seemed to get stronger as the game went along. State held the Red Raiders of the highly acclaimed Big Twelve to just 22% from three point land and the Pack also scored 16 points of TT turnovers in a vintage display of the Kevin Keatts basketball philosophy. State also shot well in an 80-69 first round win.

Saturday’s test against upset minded Oakland (conqueror of Kentucky) was even more hard core. Overtime! And a 45 minute game!

Who could have expected that D.J. Burns, listed at 275 but most likely carrying more weight than that, would play an amazing 42 minutes!

NC State build a 9 point lead in the first half on the Golden Grizzlies, and that only fed Coach Greg Kampe’s message to his team that the Wolfpack, playing in its 7th game in 12 days could quickly tire.

In reality, Oakland could not get a lead in the second half until there was just 2:49 left in the game. And the Golden Grizz would only keep that lead for just 1:55. And then Michael O’Connell made the game’s biggest play—a quick burst to the basket with the shot clock about to expire. And he was fouled!

Oakland led briefly in overtime but Burns scored on a putback to make it 70-69. Jumpers by D.J. Horne and Jayden Taylor clinched victory, a 79-73 final.

NC State had an extremely difficult time defending Oakland star Trey Townsend down low. In fact, Ben Middlebrooks and Mo Diarra fouled out trying to slow Townsend, who poured in 30 points.

On the other hand, Casey Morsell did yeoman work defending “Kentucky Killer” Jack Gohlke. Gohlke, who made 10 of 20 3’s against UK, finished with 22 points against the Pack but missed 11 of his 17 shots beyond the arc. This mattered. NC State dominated the defensive backboard.

While two players did most of the Oakland scoring, State put five guys in double figures, led by Burns with 24. D.J. also grabbed 11 rebounds and dished out 4 assists in his marathon 42 minute effort.

The Pack also got a critical 8 points off the bench from Taylor.

This South Regional in Dallas does not begin until Friday, giving the Wolfpack a much needed day of rest.

Also I would share this. Analyst Kenny Smith noted that the team that wins the ACC Tournament is typically a one or two seed. He added that NC State is now playing like a one or two seed. No arguments here.

The Wolfpack's matchup against Marquette sports a bit of history. NC State beat Marquette for the 1974 NCAA Championship. The schools have played four times since with each winning twice. This will be the first meeting since 2009.

Marquette struggled late in the season due to the injury of super point guard Tyler Kolek. But Kolek played 40 minutes in the Golden Eagles win over Colorado, scoring 21 points with a whopping 11 assists.

This team is difficult to defend, because the Eagles can attack the basket and/or kick the ball out for threes. Marquette shot 43% from beyond the arc Sunday against the Buffaloes. Shaka Smart’s bunch has balance with Kam Jones (18), Oso Ighodaro (10), reserve Chase Ross (12), and Big East Sixth Man of the Year David Joplin (14) all scoring in double figures. By the way, Joplin played at Brookfield Central outside Milwaukee, a rival of Seth Trimble’s Menomonee Falls team. I know this trivia because I played at Brookfield East a few decades ago. So Joplin and Trimble played against each other in Wisconsin’s Braveland Conference.

Historically, Smart’s teams press a great deal of the time, but this Marquette club is not deep—only seven played Sunday. And Colorado just killed the Golden Eagles on the board, racking up 12 offensive rebounds. Still, Marquette was able to record 10 steals, leading to fast breaks and 13 points off turnovers. But, bottom line, when a team shoots 62% it’s very hard to beat.

NC State has its work cut out defensively, trying to keep Kolek from driving and dishing.

On the other hand MU has no good match up for D.J. Burns. Ighodaro is 6’11 but weighs just 235. If the Wolfpack can protect the ball as usual, get the ball to Burns for his power moves or passes to three point shooters, and above all defend, I like State’s chances of moving on.

Duke must oust Houston in Texas to make Elite 8

For nearly three weeks in March, it appeared Duke’s season was “heading South,” in the colloquial sense. But after a great weekend in Brooklyn, the Blue Devils are now headed South in a literal sense. Later this week they will make their way to the South Regional in Dallas.

The Duke team learned as the NCAA Tournament began, that guard Caleb Foster, who has started 15 games, would be lost for the season. To make matters worse, star big man Kyle Filipowski scored just 3 points in the Blue Devils’ opening game against Vermont. But that was the end of the bad news.

Duke’s other four starters, Mark Mitchell, Jeremy Roach, Tyrese Proctor and Jared McCain all scored in double figures against the Catamounts in a 17 point Duke win.

This was a low scoring game, 64-47. But the key point is that Duke held Vermont to 25% from three and dominated the glass. Also Duke shot 29 free throws to just 6 for the Catamounts.

Sunday’s game against 32-4 James Madison looked more formidable, especially after the Dukes whipped 5 seed Wisconsin 72-61. But the Blue Devils shot the eyes out of the basket, giving Duke’s thousands of New York area alumni plenty to cheer about. In short, Duke ran the Dukes out of Brooklyn.

Jared McCain buried a three in the game’s first 15 seconds. Roach hit a jumper. Filipowski slammed home a dunk. Proctor scored. And then McCain hit another three. The rout was on.

Duke shot 52% for the game, including 14-28 from beyond the arc. Most importantly, Duke defended, forcing 14 JMU turnovers. This ignited the Blue Devils’ long dormant transition game, leading to 24 points off turnovers.

JMU shot more free throws, 23-18, but it didn’t matter as Duke rolled 93-55. McCain led the way with 30 points, Roach and Proctor combined for 33, and Filipowski scored 14 on 6-8 from the floor.

This is the Duke team Coach Jon Scheyer has been expecting to see for many weeks. The Blue Devils have their mojo back just in time to face #1 seed Houston.

Houston is coached by Kelvin Sampson, a North Carolina native. To be more precise, Sampson hails from Robeson County and has described himself as “a Pembroke, North Carolina, boy.” He is Native American, a proud member of the Lumbee Tribe. What a basketball career he has compiled.

Sampson has coached all over the country, six times being named Coach of the Year. Still, I think arguably his best work has been done in Houston.

The Cougars reached the Final Four last year and may have the components to get there again. Houston is 32-4, losing only to Alabama, at TCU, at Kansas, and in the Big Twelve Tournament against Iowa State.

Sunday night, however, the Cougs were pushed hard by Texas A&M. The Aggies crushed Houston on the glass, rebounding more than half of their missed shots. A&M drew fouls—a whopping 34, as four count ‘em four, Houston starters fouled out. The fifth starter, forward J’Wan Roberts, finished the game with four fouls as Houston won in OT 100-95.

Houston is known for defense but the Cougars offense carried the club against A&M. Houston shot 52%, with Emanuel Sharp (30 points), Jamal Shead (21), L.J. Cryer (20) and Roberts (13) all hitting double figures.

Still, if Duke can get to the free throw line like A&M did, get some second shots, and defend as the Blue Devils did in Brooklyn, the Blue Dukes have a chance to reach the Elite Eight.

And then, dare I say it, a rematch with NC State? Don’t want to get too far ahead here. After all, Marquette and Houston are favored. But given the way this NCAA Tournament is going, I would not bet against a Duke-NC State Regional Final. Amazingly, that would be their third meeting in 26 days!

Postseason has been sweet and special for Triangle teams

Great as basketball in the Triangle has been through the years, placing all three teams in the Sweet Sixteen is a comparatively uncommon occurrence. Since the expansion of the NCAA Tournament, allowing multiple bids from one conference, Duke, State and Carolina have all reached the Sweet Sixteen at the same time, just five times: 1985, 1986, 1989, 2005, 2015. But collectively, Triangle teams have reached the Final Four an amazing 39 times. Something to remember as we watch the games this weekend in what has turned out to be a very special postseason.