Holliday: NC State, Duke, UNC need more to catch Clemson

By Bob Holliday, WRALSportsFan contributor

How important is rebounding? The results were on full display this week as NC State, Duke, and UNC went a combined 3-2 and lost ground to Clemson, now 7-0 in ACC play with a two game lead over its nearest rivals and a three game lead over teams Triangle. Work on the glass played a big part in all three wins and in the losses by Duke and UNC as well.

Wolfpack’s board work springs the upset

NC State rebounded 33% of its missed shots against #16 Miami. The Hurricanes could corral just 10% of their misses. How else to explain how underdog NC State, which shot just 44%, beat a nationally ranked team shooting a blistering 57%!

Certainly the Wolfpack’s 17-4 advantage in the turnover battle played a part, too, but at crunch time, it was all about the crunch of bodies under the boards.

State trailed in OT 77-76. D.J. Burns put up a shot that missed. Burns barreled in and grabbed the rebound, adroitly passing to Casey Morsell for a layup.

The Canes were back on top 81-80 when Morsell put up a three ball that missed the mark. Ernest Ross snatched the rebound, prolonging a Wolfpack possession that produced two more shots by Terquavion Smith. Both of those missed.

Ross, however, took matters into his own hands on the next trip down court, scoring an electrifying put back after a Jarkel Joiner miss. Ross, who scored 17 points with 9 boards in the game of his NC State career, later made a free throw and State won 83-81.

Burns, with 13 points and 9 rebounds and Greg Gantt-6 points and 6 rebounds, also helped NC State dominate inside.

Also note that defensive rebounding, a significant weakness on some of Keatts’ previous Wolfpack teams, is now a huge plus. Not only did State hold Miami, statistically one of the ACC’s better offensive rebounding teams, to a grand total of four extra chances, but the Pack ranks among the league’s top three in defensive rebounding percentage for the season.

Keatts’ team is doing this despite the loss of two of its very best rebounders, big man Dusan Mahorcic and big guard Jack Clark. These injuries set State back for a bit, but the Pack now has it rolling, winning six of its last seven.

Devils denied at Clemson

Duke is the ACC’s best offensive rebounding team bar none. The Blue Devils snag 34% of their misses in ACC Games, more than 38% in all games.

Duke rebounded more than half its misses against Pitt Wednesday, collecting 24 second chances while the Panthers accumulated a mere 19 defensive rebounds. Indeed Pitt Coach Jeff Capel said afterward, “It looked like Duke’s best offense was to put the ball up on the glass and go get it.”

Saturday’s opponent Clemson is 7-0 first and foremost because of outstanding defense. The Tigers hold opponents to 36% from the floor. Part of being a great defensive team is not giving up second shots. Clemson cleans the glass 75% of the time, one of the top three figures in the league.

During the first half when the Tigers struggled with their shooting, they remained in striking distance by limiting Duke to three offensive rebounds.

In the second half, Duke stepped it up on the glass. Kyle Filipowski rebounded his own miss and scored. Tyrese Proctor was off line on a shot from beyond the arc, but someone tipped the ball to Filipowski who put in two more second chance points. Jaylen Blakes missed a jumper but Mark Mitchell battled for the rebound and scored the put back.

Duke at one point built an eight point lead. Clemson slowly moved ahead. Then Mitchell scored on another offensive rebound. At that point Duke trailed just 58-56.

But over the final 5:07, the Blue Devils could not make a single field goal. They continued to get offensive rebounds and make free throws but shot just 30% in the second half. Duke went 0-12 from three and 0 from everywhere down the stretch. Not even great offensive rebounding can overcome that kind of woeful shooting.

And here’s the other thing. While Duke excels under the offensive glass, the Devils are just average when it comes to defensive rebounding. Duke rebounds just 71% of opponent misses in ACC play, and that’s only ninth best out of fifteen teams.

Also, even though Clemson is dead last in offensive rebounding percentage at a measly 21%, the Tigers secured almost 30% of their offensive rebound opportunities against Duke, leading to 10 second chance points. In a tight game, that’s a big number.

Heels win with Bacot, lose without him

Tuesday at Virginia, Armando Bacot procured two offensive rebounds on UNC’s first possession. Then he sprained his ankle. Bacot, the ACC’s most prolific offensive rebounder by a wide margin, was sorely missed.

Opponent missed shots are pretty common place against Virginia’s Pack Line defense. Second chance points are critical for any team trying to compete with the Cavaliers. And without Bacot, UNC struggled on the glass. A lot.

The Tar Heels pulled down just four offensive rebounds in the first half after Bacot’s departure. Those resulted in exactly two second chance points—a tip in by Justin McKoy.

Carolina collected two offensive rebounds in the entire second half and no second chance points—this against a UVA team that is not all that good on the defensive glass, clearing only 71% of opponent misses, 10th in the ACC.

But UNC’s rebounding in its own end was even more catastrophic. The Tar Heels as of last week were leading the ACC in defensive rebound percentage at 79% in ACC only games. Virginia, meanwhile, ranks 13th in offensive rebounding percentage. The Cavaliers focus not on crashing the glass, but on stopping transition. They typically drop three or even four defenders into coverage, sending just one or at most two players to look for a rebound.

And yet three times early in the second half, Virginia picked up second chance points. Francisco Caffaro grabbed an offensive rebound and fed Ben Vander Plas for a jumper. Armaan Franklin scored on a put back. Vander Plas followed suit. This flurry under the glass helped power UVA from a 36-29 deficit to a 46-40 lead, a run of 17-4 with six huge second chance points.

With UNC going one and done at the other end almost every time down, the Cavaliers won in the final minutes 65-58.

Bacot had not planned to play Saturday at Louisville but warmed up and decided he could. Bacot was not 100% by any means but he could still rebound.

And two early rebounds by the big guy inspired his teammates, who had started very poorly, clanking shots and committing turnovers.

After eight minutes the Cardinals led 15-7. But on back to back possessions, Bacot snatched a missed shot and slammed it home. Suddenly UNC trailed just 15-11. Knowing the physical price Bacot was paying to play, the other guys wearing Carolina Blue rallied to take control of the game within the ensuing five minutes. UNC won handily 80-59.

Four of UNC’s losses this season, Alabama, Indiana, Virginia Tech, Virginia, have come in games where he was injured. Bacot’s 14 points and 16 rebounds Saturday might have prevented a fifth loss, because UNC was in a funk until the big man got the Tar Heels going.

Puff Johnson and DeMarco Dunn also did some good work on the glass as UNC rebounded a very respectable 32% of its missed shots.

UNC’s 2017 national championship team rebounded very close to 40% of its missed shots. Roy Williams of course played two big men inside. Hubert Davis employs a single post style of offense with a second big man often playing on the perimeter. This UNC team rebounds at just 29% and with the injury to Pete Nance has slipped to 26% in conference play, just 9th best.

A big week lies ahead as State, Duke, and UNC try to cut into Clemson’s large and growing lead in the conference standings.

NC State goes to Georgia Tech and UNC hosts Boston College Tuesday. Saturday, Duke gets Miami while State and Carolina battle each other. The outcomes may hinge on who wins the war on the glass.