Holliday: NC State is now the ACC's best team

By Bob Holliday, WRAL Sports contributor

If football were like basketball and the ACC were to hold say a four team tournament, and if the CFP were to include 12 teams (which will happen next year) NC State would be my pick to win the ACC title, and in basketball parlance get the automatic bid. OK I know State lost to ACC finalist Louisville (itself a loser to 6-5 Kentucky Saturday); but that was in the “bad offense” part of the season for the Wolfpack. State did not play undefeated Florida State but the Pack did beat the Seminoles last year.

No question FSU has been the ACC’s best team this season, but the season ending injury to Travis Jordan is a game changer. The ‘Noles were able to beat Florida without Jordan 24-15 but check the yardage totals. FSU gained a total of 224 yards. NC State piled up 504 against UNC and 408 the week before that against Virginia Tech. Also, Florida State’s defense is good, but no defense in the ACC is better than NC State.

Did you see what the Wolfpack did to the ACC’s best offense in the first half? The great Drake Maye, who I believe is the best two year quarterback I’ve ever seen in this league, was held to 58 yards passing in the first half, nearly all of that on one drive late in the second quarter.

Meanwhile, NC State’s improving offense, getting better every week after Brennan Armstrong’s reinstatement as starting quarterback, amassed 232 yards through the air and 327 total yards in the first half. This was a huge number, even against UNC, which usually doesn’t become porous defensively until the fourth quarter.

Carolina actually did hold State to field goals on the first two drives, but the Tar Heel offense went three and out on its first possession and fumbled on its second. Then the Heels went three and out three more times. Robert Anae’s offense went to work.

Armstrong and K.C. Concepcion, with help from Keyon Lesane drove 84 yards and 55 yards to make it 20-0. State added two more Braden Narveson field goals intermixed with UNC’s one burst of offense to make it 26-7 at half.

That final field goal was pretty interesting. The Pack had passed to Concepcion, who was brought down one yard short of the goal with 18 seconds left in the half. Dave Doeren’s guys were out of time outs, which meant a “Mayday” style kick. The Wolfpack kicking team sprinted onto the field, hurried to get set, then made the snap with one second left. Time expired as Narveson’s boot split the uprights.

But! During intermission replay determined NC State had 12 players on the field. So technically the halftime score was just 23-7. As play resumed in the third quarter, the Wolfpack was ordered to retry the field goal from the 23, five yards further back. Narveson again made the kick.

Here’s another strange element. Normally in American football the team that scores kicks off. Well, NC State had won the toss and deferred its option until the second half. So Carolina had to kick off to the team that had just scored. That was weird.

And State scored again, moving 75 yards in 8 plays. This time Armstrong called on Dacari Collins for the touchdown catch. 33-7.

Given UNC’s ability to score in bunches, the Tar Heels held out some small hope for a comeback, but everything had to go perfectly. Maye broke off a 56 yard run and then scored on a one yard keeper. The Heels then went for two. Maye converted but then spiked the ball. And UNC was called for holding. Both penalties were assessed. Noah Burnette wound up kicking for one point – from 44 yards out. I have never seen that before.

UNC scored another touchdown on a pass to Tez Walker. But the Wolfpack logged another touchdown to make the score 39-20.

The fourth quarter was scoreless but not without drama. Payton Wilson sent Maye to the injury tent as he dove to stop the quarterback from breaking contain. Ever the competitor, Maye sat out a series but returned with just over three minutes remaining for one final try. He had thrown an interception to Wilson on the series before his injury. This time Maye’s pass made contact with his receiver but deflected into the arms of Devan Boykin.

State fans were able to lustily celebrate this third straight win over their arch-rivals in light blue, well before the clock wound down.

ACC offers a crowd of teams for bowl season

This has been a much better season for Atlantic Coast Conference football. After a miserable league showing in 2022, the ACC has held its own with the Power Five and posted two wins over Notre Dame and, as Duke fans know, it should have been three. This past weekend the ACC split 2-2 with the mighty SEC and that should have been 3-1. However, Louisville lost unexpectedly.

In spite of that improved performance, the ACC could, for the second straight year, get left out of the four team College Football Playoffs. Florida State, if it remains undefeated, certainly has a good chance to be one of the four. But Louisville, like NC State, is better than FSU right now.

Analyze the Saturday performances of the two ACC finalists. FSU’s Tate Rodemaker passed for just 134 yards and no touchdowns against Florida. The Gators’ defense is good, but not as good as Kentucky’s. Louisville rushed and passed for more than 400 yards against the SEC’s #2 rushing defense. The Cards’ own underrated defense held the Wildcats to 289. U of L lost the game because it gave up a kick return touchdown, and one or two other big plays.

I would suggest the Cards are at least 50-50 to win the ACC Championship and maybe 60-40. Florida State may have something to say about that Saturday night in Charlotte, but right now Louisville’s offense is much better than FSU’s. And the defenses are not that far apart.

So what does this mean for NC State? Well, if Florida State does get into the CFP that creates better bowl options for the Pack and everyone else. Louisville would then likely become the ACC’s representative in the Orange Bowl. 9-3 Notre Dame would likely be picked next. The Irish cannot take the ACC’s slot in the Orange Bowl but are eligible for any other postseason invitation. Juxtaposed against NC State, the Irish will be the bigger target because of their national following. Also ND beat NCSU head to head, back when the Wolfpack wasn’t playing well.

NC State should be the next prime target for the bowls. But, what happens if FSU doesn’t make the CFP?

In a word, the postseason competition becomes more “crowded.”

Under this scenario the ACC Champion gets the Orange Bowl bid. And then you have some seven ACC teams with winning records who will lobby for great destinations and good quality opponents when there may be only six available. It’s a bit of a judgment call as to which bowl bids present quality opportunities, but suffice to say FSU making the CFP brightens the picture for everyone else.

Here are the ACC records among bowl eligible teams:

• Florida State 12-0
• Louisville 10-2
• NC State 9-3
• Clemson 8-4
• UNC 8-4
• Duke 7-5
• Miami 7-5
• Georgia Tech 6-6
• Boston College 6-6
• Virginia Tech 6-6
• Syracuse 6-6

So here are the destinations in the category of Tier One Bowls:

• Jacksonville
• San Diego
• Orlando
• Tampa
• Charlotte
• El Paso
• New York
• Boston
• Annapolis

Once upon a time, the bowls followed a definite selection order worked out in conjunction with the ACC. These days we’re told, it’s a more fluid process, focused on creating the most compelling matchups possible. And obviously each ACC team has interest in the matchup, as well as the destination. The bowls and schools will work together during the coming week to find the best fit in as many bowls as possible. This will all happen prior to the weekend so that bowl bids can be officially announced after the CFP bids and New Year’s Day Six bowl bids are revealed.

Regardless of the Notre Dame factor, NC State should get invited to an attractive bowl against a quality opponent. Most of the matchups would be against SEC or Big Ten, though the Pop Tarts Bowl in Orlando brings in a Big 12 opponent. Also the Holiday Bowl in San Diego and Sun Bowl in El Paso would pair the ACC against the Pac 12 in its final season.

Now NC State has only seen one season with double digit wins ever, that of course coming in 2002 during the glory days of Philip Rivers when the Pack went 11-3. State might have won 10 in 2021 but the Holiday Bowl was canceled at the last minute due to UCLA Covid issues. So maybe it would be fitting for the Wolfpack to return to San Diego and this time actually play the game!

In any event Dave Doeren, has in my view, done the best coaching job of his 11 year career at NC State, regrouping during the bye week after a very disappointing start. His program appears to be in good shape, especially based on the post game trash talking Saturday night.

The same cannot be said for UNC. Mack Brown brought in new talent and some new coaches to work with his strong returning cast of veteran players – plus Maye and Omarion Hampton. This was supposed to be a championship season, looking good after a 6-0 start. But the Tar Heels finished 2-4, fading in the late season just like last year.

Carolina’s play in the first half against State was completely unexpected, given the stakes of the game. Brown told the ACC Network at halftime “it was the worst ever of any of my teams.”

But that’s in the past now. The Heels could come out winners in the bowl sweepstakes and receive a bid to a really attractive bowl against a strong Power Five opponent and then win the game, especially if Maye plays. On the other hand, UNC may not experience all of the above.

And while a bowl win might ease some of the bad feelings about the way the season ended, the fact remains that this program has so much uncertainty going forward. Brown insists he will return. It would be quite in character for this Hall of Fame coach to want to identify a successor and put the program in a good place a few years hence before he retires. But there will be a huge turnover in personnel beginning soon. So many players in their final year, plus Maye is expected to turn pro and who knows about Hampton? It would certainly help the morale in Chapel Hill to win the bowl game for a change. UNC has not won a bowl since 2019 and has dropped six of its last seven in the postseason.

NC State could also use a bowl victory. The Pack hasn’t finished the postseason with a win since 2017. But either way, NC State will be ranked higher than Carolina in the 2024 preseason. Saturday night’s romp, the third straight win in the series, put the exclamation point on that.