Holliday: One last 'Battle of the Blues' for Coach K

By Bob Holliday, WRAL Sports contributor

Durham, N.C. — It’s almost here.

Arguably the most anticipated regular season basketball matchup in Triangle history and certainly the game with the highest ticket prices: Mike Krzyzewski’s final home game against his school’s fiercest rival. And it comes just a few days after Duke clinched its first ACC regular-season championship since 2010.

Back in February, Duke dominated UNC at the Dean Smith Center. The Blue Devils shot 55% in the first half and piled up 18 points in the paint to just 10 for their more inside-oriented opponent. Duke’s guards applied so much pressure defensively on Caleb Love an d R.J. Davis that UNC, in Coach Hubert Davis’ words, “couldn’t run our offense.” Duke even controlled the backboards against Carolina, one of the best rebounding teams in America. Armando Bacot, who leads the ACC in glasswork by a wide margin, secured just five rebounds against Duke, and only got two of those in the all important first half when the Blue Devils built a 21 point lead. And all this happened when big freshman guard Trevor Keels was just starting to come back from a calf injury that sidelined him for most of four games.

Keels has long since returned to the starting lineup. And I’ll be honest, Duke is better now than it was February 5 and could easily dominate Carolina again, turning Krzyzewski’s final night coaching in Cameron into a full on celebration during the second half.

On the other hand, five of Duke’s top six players are underclassmen. Will they bring the same focus to the frenzied atmosphere Saturday night in Durham that we saw in hostile Chapel Hill? Remember the Virginia game in Cameron? Plus, UNC should be expected to play better. It’s hard to imagine the Tar Heels playing worse.

And if the game becomes close, and remains close in the second half, Krzyzewski’s final curtain becoming a tense drama instead of the carnival Duke fans hope for, how will that play out in the final minutes? Duke’s players will want to win this game above all others. But they have just one chance to win Mike Krzyzewski’s final home game. Does that become motivation that fuels a brilliant blocked shot and fast break basket, or mounting pressure that causes free throws to misfire? As I will note later, free throws are not a Duke strength.

But enough speculation. Let’s go to facts as we break down this once in a lifetime competition.

Recent games for UNC:

Since the first meeting with Duke, UNC has won six out of seven and has nailed down one of the four double byes at next week’s ACC Tournament. But the Heels have a blemish-that 76-67 loss to Pittsburgh, which put the Tar Heels’ NCAA Tournament hopes in jeopardy, giving Carolina a Quad 4 loss. Pitt, of course, is coached by a Duke guy, Jeff Capel.

Because of the Pitt loss, UNC has no margin for error with the NCAA’s Tournament Selection Committee. Yet the Tar Heels nearly lost to Syracuse,#86 in the latest NET rankings. Carolina didn’t play poorly this time. Quite the contrary. But Syracuse, on the heels of Saturday’s 25 point home loss to Duke, shot more than 50% in regulation, led by Cole Swider’s 14-21, 36 points. Syracuse led by one with 16 seconds left and called time out to set up a play under its own basket. But Puff Johnson and Leaky Black pressured Joe Girardi’s pass to Buddy Boeheim and the ball went off Boeheim’s foot out of bounds. The game went to overtime, which Carolina then dominated.

Maybe the defensive effort finally wore down the Orange in the final five minutes. Syracuse made just 1-6 shots in OT. But mainly, the home team benefitted from a great crowd and what UNC play by play announcer Jones Angell described as “the full Caleb Love experience.”

Love struggled during the game’s first 37 minutes and 30 seconds. At that point, he was 2-14 from the floor, and 1-8 from three. But in the final 7:30 Love went 3-4 from beyond the arc, knocked in both halves of a one and one, then scored on a high arching scoop shot, later converting the “and one” as he was fouled on the play. That’s 14 points at crunch time. This marks at least the third time Love has been the late game hero after playing poorly most of the night.

Defensive star Leaky Black suffered a hyper-extended knee at NC State, but he wasn’t going to miss UNC’s Senior Night; fortunately for his team. Black scored eight points, grabbed seven rebounds-four of them offensive, handed out seven assists, he made a steal and also blocked three shots. Besides forcing the critical turnover that gave UNC life in regulation, Black defended Syracuse star Buddy Boeheim, the ACC’s leading scorer, and limited him to 14 points on 5-14 from the floor.

Armando Bacot moved a step closer to history with his 17 points and 18 rebounds. Though a small step down from his monster game at NC State (28 points, 18 rebounds, and 5 blocks) Bacot still posted his 23rd double double of the season, tying Brice Johnson’s school record.

Two days earlier, UNC really whipped up on NC State inside. In addition to Bacot’s blockbuster day, the Tar Heels picked up extra paint points from Brady Manek. The two bigs scored 15 of UNC’s 24 points as the Heels built an early 19 point lead.

Manek is known for his three point shooting, but did most of his damage inside against the Wolfpack. Manek went 4-4 on shots inside the arc, adding a couple of threes for good measure; he also handed out five assists. Reserve Puff Johnson played his best game to date. Seeing extended minutes due to Black’s injury, Johnson scored 16 points, including 2-4 from three, and those were much needed because his teammates hit just 3-15.

NC State did exploit one of UNC’s weaknesses-ball security. Coach Kevin Keatts employed a smaller lineup much of the game, pressing full court. UNC committed a whopping 16 turnovers—5 by Bacot and 4 by Caleb Love, who also struggled to hit shots from the field.

But overall for UNC, mission accomplished. The Tar Heels moved up to #40 in the latest NET, and avoided bad losses. Though the Tar Heels are 15-0 in Quad 2 and Quad 3, they remain close to the NCAA Tournament bubble because of the Quad 4 loss to Pitt and their 1-7 record against Quad 1 opponents.

Recent games for Duke:

Duke comes into the rematch with Carolina riding a seven game winning streak, longest of the season.

It was an emotional scene Tuesday night at the Peterson Events Center. Before a sold out crowd, Pitt Coach Jeff Capel, who of course, played on a Blue Devil Final Four team and later served as Mike Krzyzewski’s top assistant, presented his former coach with a fist-an important symbol in the Duke program-made of Pittsburgh steel.

Duke continued its outstanding road play, taking a 15 point lead over the Panthers by the ten minute mark and slowly widening the margin to 30. Trevor Keels was lights out, hitting 5-8 threes and 5-7 twos on his way to a 27 point night. Paolo Banchero was equally lethal, hitting 7-10, including all three of his shots from beyond the arc, in a 21 point outing. Wendell Moore and A.J. Griffin also hit double figures as Duke shot 60% from the floor and 50% from two. About the only surprise was that Mark Williams. Playing 21 minutes, Williams scored just two points while Pitt big man John Hugley scored 19.

Still, Duke has momentum now with the ACC regular season title, a seven game win streak, and the projected second highest number two seed in the NCAA Tournament, with a shot at a number one seed still out there.

Duke’s win at Pitt marked the third straight time the Blue Devils had played and won on the road. The Pitt win was almost as good as last Saturday at Syracuse, when the Blue Devils put on perhaps their best performance of the season. Mickie Krzyzewski joined the sellout crowd of 30,000 at the Carrier Dome—the Krzyzewski and Boeheim families are long time friends from their time with USA Basketball.

The huge crowd was never a factor as Duke scored on 16 of its first 20 possessions and led 41-13 12 minutes into the game.

Paolo Banchero had a field day against the Jim Boeheim zone. The freshman Player of the Year candidate put together his best shooting game in weeks, and of course followed that with an even better night at Pitt. Banchero has struggled with his accuracy since mid January, but began to break out of it at Syracuse. Banchero hit 4-7 from three point land, his most prolific night from deep all season. Along with 21 points, Banchero racked up 9 assists, kicking out to fellow freshman A.J. Griffin, who buried 6-10 from 3 for 20 points, and dishing inside to Mark Williams, who poured in 28 points, adding 12 rebounds, with 3 blocks—take that Armando Bacot! Jeremy Roach provided a spark off the bench, scoring 10 points.

The turnover prone Blue Devils coughed up the basketball just six times against the zone, which in Boeheim’s best seasons can produce a great many deflections and steals. The Blue Devils defended the three point line extremely well, holding Buddy Boeheim and friends to just 27% from beyond the arc. And Duke outrebounded the Orange 38-25.

This Duke team, understanding what its coach’s relationship with Jim Boeheim has meant through the years, went out and put on a clinic. Could this have been a prelude to the most special Duke game? Duke clobbered both Syracuse and Pitt on the road. UNC struggled with Syracuse and lost to Pitt at home. This does not portend well for the Tar Heels, and yet, the game is not contested on the basis of past results. So let’s check the stats.

Strengths for UNC:

• Free throw shooting: As mentioned, UNC is No. 1 at the line in conference only games, hitting 78%. And note-the guys who get fouled the most in late game situations, Caleb Love and R. J. Davis, shoot 88% and 84% respectively.
• Three-point shooting: UNC ranks 5th in ACC only stats at 37%. The Tar Heels are capable of hitting better than 40%. They knocked in 39% against Syracuse, 14-36
• Scoring offense: UNC was a close second to Wake Forest prior to Monday night’s game against Syracuse, with Wake averaging 77.42 and UNC 77.22. Carolina then put up 88 against the ‘Cuse. This team can score.
• Blocks: Back in January Carolina sat in the league’s lower echelon for blocks, but since then the Heels have stepped up their game. UNC now ranks fourth in ACC play with 4.11 blocks, mostly thanks to Bacot; however Black can block shots too, getting three against the Orange Monday.
• Field goal defense: 5th in the league, allowing 43 %. This is mostly due to better interior defense. UNC has also been improving in three point defense-at least prior to Syracuse, but this is still more of a liability than a strength.
• Assists: UNC gets almost 15 per game, fourth in the league. The Tar Heels handed out 21 assists on 29 baskets against Syracuse, which was a big factor in their win. This team generally moves the ball well in the backcourt. Plus, both Bacot and especially Manek are gifted passers, especially compared with other big men.
• Rebounding: UNC is No. 1 in defensive rebounding percentage, clearing nearly 79% of opponent misses. Second place Clemson is five points back. The Tar Heels do not rebound offensively as they have in years past, collecting 30.5% of their misses. They do rank third in this category.

Strengths for Duke:

• Scoring defense: I wouldn’t normally list scoring defense, since it is typically tempo dependent. But for a team that plays at Duke’s pace, holding opponents to 66 points per game is impressive.
• Field goal defense: Duke leads in this category overall and from beyond the arc. This is probably Duke’s greatest strength, though the Blue Devils have many. Teams shoot 41% from the floor against Duke and a paltry 29% from three.
• Blocks: The Blue Devils block 5.72 shots per game. #1 in the league by nearly one and one-half blocks per game. Williams reigns over all ACC shot blockers getting more than three per game but Theo John and Moore also block lots of shots. Remember, some of those blocks start Duke fast breaks.
• Assists: Duke really shares the ball, averaging almost 17 assists per game, tops in the league. Moore and Roach both rank among the ACC leaders and Banchero’s passing is first rate-3.6 assists per game, best among big men.
• Field goal percentage: Thanks in part to all of this fantastic passing, Duke ranks among the ACC’s best at shooting the basketball. Just ask Syracuse. The Blue Devils hit 48% overall (3rd) and 38% from three (4th).
• Offensive rebounding percentage: Duke leads the ACC in this category, exploding by defenses to claim 34% off all misses. When a team shoots 48% and then retrieves more than one third of its misses, that can be difficult to overcome.

Weaknesses for UNC:

• Turnovers: The Tar Heels only coughed it up eight times against Syracuse but over the conference season they rank 11th, turning it over 11.79 times per game.
• Steals: The Heels force just 5.47 steals per game, well below some of their best defensive seasons. They rank 10th in the league. Still, they make more steals than Duke.
• Turnover margin: Because of high turnovers and low number of steals, UNC ranks 12th in turnover margin at -1.47
• Three-point defense: Heels had shown improvement in recent weeks. Cole Swider and Buddy Boeheim presented a serious challenge Monday night, hitting 10-25 for 40%. So now for the season, UNC allows 37%, which is 11th in the league.
• Field goal percentage: UNC does not shoot as well from two as it does from three. We saw that at times against Syracuse. Coach Davis has said more than once his team misses a lot of layups and close in shots. Result: The Tar Heels shoot 44.9% overall seventh in the league.

Weaknesses for Duke:

• Scoring margin: Duke leads the league winning by 10.5 points per game. But stay with me here. The Blue Devils have been in very few close games. They played two non-conference barnburners against Ohio State and Gonzaga, losing the first and winning the second. But in the ACC, Duke is just 1-3 in close games, losing to Miami by 2, Florida State by 1, and Virginia by 1. The Devils did beat Wake Forest by 2. Still, one can’t be entirely sure how this team will perform if the UNC game is (unexpectedly) close.
• Free throw percentage: Duke is just 14th, shooting 71%. This could be problem in a close game.
• Defensive rebound percentage: This team is seventh, clearing just 72% of its misses. I say just because Duke is the #1 offensive rebounding team. Strange to be first in one phase of rebounding and seventh in the other. . But there are times when the Blue Devils’ big men focus more on blocking shots than keeping their feet on the ground and maintaining rebounding position. That was a big factor in the loss to Virginia at Cameron.
• Turnovers: Like UNC, Duke commits too many-11:28 per game. The Devils are just one slot above Carolina in this category. But, UNC forces more turnovers.
• Turnover margin: Duke is 13th in the ACC in this category. Only Wake Forest and Pittsburgh are worse. The Devils give the ball away 2.5 times more than they take it away. Maybe that shows how talented they truly are because they win in spite of this.

Matchups:

Bacot vs. Williams: Both look to be at the top of their games now. Bacot and Williams rank among ACC leaders in field goal percentage, rebounds, and blocked shots. These are the two best offensive rebounders in the league. Bacot has a more experienced low post game and finds more ways to score. He averages 17 points per ACC game to Williams’ 12. Bacot uses his strength to get position, both to score and to rebound. No doubt Mike Krzyzewski will give Williams some help in defending Bacot as he did in the first game. Williams is the more explosive player. He’s 7’1 and can really jump. He scores many of his points on dunks and put backs, but this season has developed a short jumper with touch. For me, here are the keys to this matchup: How will Bacot fare against a taller shot blocker, who gets help inside from a teammate? Can Williams be disciplined and not leave his feet except for high percentage block opportunities? It hurts Duke if he goes flying after low percentage block chances, and thus sacrifices rebounding position; especially against Bacot. Going the other way, can Bacot keep Williams from a double figure game? Will foul trouble come into play for either of these great big men?

Manek vs. Banchero: Brady Manek has quietly become one of the ACC’s most important players. The guy shoots 41% from three, second only to Swider. Most importantly Manek hits 57% of his shots from close to the basket. This is so old school. Many players, Banchero for example, shoot less than 50% from inside the arc. Manek is a good passer, getting more than two assists each game, and has diversified UNC’s offense lately scoring inside and out. Manek is not a great defender and he will be matched up against a great player, regardless of his assignment. Banchero, until the last two games, really struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 29% in ACC play. He’s a 49% performer in close to the basket. Above all, Banchero is a superb passer, dolling out 3.6 assists per game in conference games. Banchero is the better rebounder and shot blocker. Also, he has gotten better at playing without fouling. Banchero has the higher upside in this matchup but he’s a first year college player and Manek is very much the hardened veteran. Pay attention to these two.

Black vs. Griffin: UNC’s Hubert Davis started Black against Griffin in the first meeting, with Bacot on Banchero. Within a few possessions though, Black moved over to Banchero and Bacot fronted Williams. So that left Manek on Griffin, and he exploded for 27 points. After hitting 11-17 against UNC, Griffin went just 9-25 over his next three games-36%. He can be a bit streaky. Griffin has bounced back though, going 20-42 in the next four, including 14-28 from three. Black doesn’t shoot often, but he’s 7-16 in his last four games and 3-7 from three. Black has been described as a non-shooter but in ACC games he shoots 45% from three and 58% from inside the arc. He has worked hard to improve his shooting and many think he should shoot more. Black is a top stopper, though somehow he escaped mention in analyst Cory Alexander’s best ACC defenders. And he can really stuff the stat sheet with rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. Griffin can as well, but what Duke most needs from him is 50% shooting inside and outside the arc, and minimum 13 points per game-Griffin’s norms. Watch to see who checks the most boxes Saturday, whether these two guard each other or not.

Love vs. Moore: Moore, like Black, is a great defender (and he did make Alexander’s list). And like Black, he influences the game with his passing and rebounding. He has the ball in his hands more than Black and Moore is MORE of a scorer. But his greatest value to Duke is on the defensive end. Wendell could probably defend any among UNC’s best players. Saturday, however, I think he’ll spend most of the game on the mercurial Mr. Love. For UNC to have a chance at Cameron, Love needs to emulate his 2021 self, where he averaged 21 points in two meetings against the Blue Devils. Love played poorly at the Smith Center a few weeks ago. UNC committed just eight turnovers in “Duke 1” but Love had half of them and made just 3-10 from the field. Defensively, Love may welcome the assignment on Moore, who is much more his size than the 6’9 Cole Swider. Love has the ability to help Carolina keep this game close-he’s averaging 16 points and 4 assists in ACC play. But again, the consistency. Which Caleb Love will we see? Meanwhile, Moore averages 11 points per game in the league, along with a fist full of every other stat you can imagine.

Davis vs. Keels: Jeremy Roach started game 1 as Keels was still coming back from his injured calf. Keels starts now, but both Keels and Roach will play big minutes in the backcourt, along with Moore. Keels is taller, stronger, and more physical than Roach, but his former high school teammate is quicker and more dangerous attacking the basket. Both players can shoot the three, though not like Griffin. Davis has become a reliable playmaker. He has cut down on turnovers since last season and averages 14 points in ACC games. Davis shoots 40% from three and hits 52% from inside, as opposed to Love who shoots a mere 35% from two. RJD doles out more almost 3.5 assists per game. Defensively, he is not physical like Keels, but usually gets a steal or two and those can often lead to transition chances for the Tar Heels.

Bench: Puff Johnson has given UNC a lift the last few games, but Duke has a deeper and more versatile bench with big Theo John, Joey Baker, and Bates Jones, in addition to Roach.

Hubert Davis said Monday night his team does not care about the “big party at Duke,” that they are coming to “play a game.” But R. J. Davis and Love must do a better job against Duke’s defensive pressure than they did in Chapel Hill. Otherwise it won’t be a game.