Holliday: One last visit to the Smith Center for Coach K

By Bob Holliday, WRAL Sports contributor

Chapel Hill, N.C. — It’s going to be strange watching Duke play next year in Chapel Hill without Mike Krzyzewski. I mean the man helped open the Dean Smith Center. On Jan. 18, 1986, Krzyzewski’s undefeated Blue Devils played Smith’s unbeaten Tar Heels in the building’s very first game. Carolina won 95-92, handing Duke one of just two losses that ’86 team suffered before the National Championship game.

Duke never had much luck winning in Carmichael Auditorium, losing every Chapel Hill visit from 1967 until 1985, when Krzyzewski’s fifth Duke team finally prevailed in the very last Carmichael meeting. But Krzyzewski quickly established himself as a winner in the Dean Dome, knocking off Carolina at home in 1988, 1989 and 1991.

Krzyzewski’s Duke teams dominated Chapel Hill games in the new millennium, winning four straight, five of six, and ultimately six out of ten. UNC of course held the upper hand during the Tyler Hansbrough years, but following his graduation, K went on another tear, winning five of seven between 2010 and 2016.

Starting with UNC’s National Championship team of 2017, the Tar Heels have won four of the last five, but Krzyzewski’s overall record at the Smith Center is a pretty remarkable 16-19.

Some Duke opponents are recognizing Krzyzewski’s final visit with various niceties. Florida State held a pre-game ceremony announcing that its coach, Leonard Hamilton, was making a gift to the Emily Krzyzewski Center in Durham. The University of Louisville brought out its coach emeritus, the revered Denny Crum whose Cardinal team defeated Duke in the 1986 NCAA title tilt, to greet Krzyzewski. U of L honored Krzyzewski with a customized Louisville Slugger bat along with a gift of bourbon from Maker’s Mark distillery, replete with blue and white colors and Krzyzewski’s image on the glass decanter.

UNC, according to reports, plans nothing special, other than a mention during pre-game introductions. No gifts or ceremonies. I have heard from a few in the UNC community who feel this is not a good look for the university.

Now I get the fact that Louisville likely would have done things differently if the retiring coach was Kentucky’s John Calipari. Rivalry. And yeah, given the vitriol some UNC fans have for the Duke coach, any pre-game ceremony could well be drowned out in a chorus of boos. But really, nothing?

I would remind Tar Heels that it was Mike Krzyzewski who was singularly responsible for Coach Smith being honored by the Naismith Foundation in 2011. Krzyzewski went the extra mile to make that a special evening for the Carolina basketball family, in tribute to the many great moments the Carolina-Duke rivalry produced during the Dean Smith era. As it turned out, that event in Raleigh was the late coach’s last public appearance.

And of course after Smith died in 2015, Krzyzewski wore a Carolina blue tie to his funeral, and organized an unforgettable moment of silence at center court in Cameron prior to the start of that UNC-Duke game, Coach K and Roy Williams kneeling with their arms around each other, and players of both teams in the same position around the center jump circle And when Duke came to Chapel Hill, UNC honored Krzyzewski with a plaque commemorating his 1000th win and his many contributions to this storied rivalry. So UNC has recognized K in the past. But not on the occasion of his final visit.

Recognition for Mike Krzyzewski or no recognition, there is a big game to be played Saturday night. Let’s break it down.

Duke comes to Carolina after two good wins

North Carolina is actually the second of two teams Duke visits this week which is undefeated at home. But the Blue Devils made short work of their opponent in the first road trip to take on the unbeaten, throttling Notre Dame 57-43. The Irish rank among the ACC’s best offensive teams, averaging 71 points per game, and shooting 46% overall; 41% from three. However Duke held Notre Dame’s top two scorers, Blake Wesley and Dane Goodwin, to 3-22 from the field—with all the makes by Wesley. Goodwin was blanked. Big man Paul Atkinson maneuvered for 14 points against Mark Williams and Paolo Banchero, but no other Irish player reached double figures.

Officially Williams was credited with three blocks, but unofficially it looked like he altered at least a dozen more shots. Notre Dame hit just 28% from the floor and 17% from outside the arc, way below the team’s average.

Now Duke was no offensive juggernaut. The Blue Devils committed 14 turnovers and they made just 3-19 from three point land. But thanks largely to Banchero and Williams, Duke made nearly half its shots from two point territory—23-47—and the Devils were never threatened in the second half.

Trevor Keels played for the first time since injuring his lower right calf at Florida State a couple of weeks ago. Keels did not start but logged 26 minutes of court time. He was rusty, making just 1-8 shots, but handed out four assists and played physical defense. He’ll likely play more like his pre-injury self on Saturday at UNC.

Duke lost at FSU with Keels on the sideline, but beat both Syracuse and Clemson at home while he was in rehab. The Blue Devils then won their first road game without Keels Saturday at Louisville. And it was no small thing.

The Cardinals’ interim coach Mike Pegues has brought a new energy to a contingent that had stopped competing under former head coach Chris Mack. Louisville made its last six shots in the first half against Duke and could have been tied at the break were it not for a careless turnover by senior Malik Williams which led to a three ball by A.J. Griffin with less than a second left.

The game was tied 60-60 with about seven minutes remaining. Looked like it could go either way. But Griffin made two more threes for Duke-he was five of five from beyond the arc on the day-and that gave the Blue Devils some separation. Also Paolo Banchero, who did not have a good shooting day, and Mark Williams, who missed much of the game with foul trouble, both helped Duke nail this one down. Banchero made two critical blocks when the game was tight; he also scored on a spin move, and fed Williams for a huge dunk. Williams scored the last two Duke baskets in the Devils’ 74-65 win. One came on a tip in, as Duke overwhelmed U of L on the glass, rebounding 45% of its missed shots.

UNC hopes road strength shows at home

North Carolina also took on the Cards, in something of a trap game for the Tar Heels; a road contest in between home games against their two biggest rivals. To the team’s credit, the Tar Heels played well, critically important since Louisville, even without the suspended Malik Williams, shot 43% from three and battled UNC evenly on the boards. The Cardinals overcame a 10-point UNC lead in the second half to force overtime, behind the red hot shooting of Durham’s El Ellis, who scored 25 points-all in the second half.

Carolina won with the help of two controversial technical fouls, both coming on rebound battles involving Armando Bacot and multiple Louisville players. The Tar Heels ultimately survived 90-83. All 90 points were scored by the starters.

Brady Manek led the way with 24 points, singlehandedly keeping his team in the game late in the second half when he scored nine straight. Bacot scored 19 points and grabbed 22 rebounds. R.J. Davis added 18 points and five assists. Caleb Love struggled, going 3-18 from the field with four turnovers. However Love handed out six assists and went 9-10 from the foul line, hitting several critical free throws to ice the game in overtime. And Leaky Black played his best game of the year. Black scored 13 points, not missing a single shot. And it was Black who put Carolina in the lead for good, hitting a three ball from the corner to put his team up 84-81. At the other end, Black then fought through a screen set for Ellis, so that he could get a hand in the shooter’s face. Ellis missed and U of L did not score another field goal. Black fought through screens so that he could check Ellis on two other occasions in OT. In the second half, Black and Manek switched on Louisville’s screens and Ellis made five three point shots.

UNC had beaten Georgia Tech and Boston College on the road, but this was by far the Tar Heels’ biggest road win and best road performance, given the atmosphere at the KFC Yum! Center and the passion with which the homestanding Cardinals played.

The Tar Heels shot well from outside at Louisville, though not quite as well as they did in the blowout win over NC State. But prior to the 100-80 win over the Wolfpack, UNC had shot poorly for four consecutive games-including a lowly 29% in the win over Boston College. But man did the Tar Heels break out of the slump against NC State. Manek, Love, and Davis sparked a great day beyond the arc as the Tar Heels hit 15-27, 56%. Coach Hubert Davis was also pleased with his team’s care of the basketball against NC State’s pressure. UNC committed just three turnovers in the first half and just four in the second half until Davis began substituting. Davis also praised the Tar Heels’ defense, which held its opponent to less than 40% shooting for the second straight game.

UNC certainly established its tempo against NC State, rolling up 25 fast break points and hitting the century mark for the first time all season. Also, following a stretch of games where UNC’s starters logged lots of minutes and did all the heavy lifting, the Tar Heels against NC State got 22 points from the bench.

Defense a strength for Duke

The Blue Devils get high marks for their defense. Duke leads the ACC in three-point field goal percentage defense. Opponents shoot just 27.6% from beyond the arc against the Devils. Duke also excels inside the arc. The Blue Devils rank #1 in blocked shots in ACC play, getting almost six per game. That impacts opponents’ overall field goal percentage more than somewhat. Teams shoot just 40% against Duke. Only Wake Forest, which allows 39.6% from the floor, has better stats for field goal defense in ACC play.

Duke limits ACC opponents to 67 points per game. That’s impressive given that Duke plays an up tempo style with a high number of possessions in most games.

Offensively Duke leads the league in assists, with 17 per game. The Blue Devils’ ball movement often produces baskets. Duke shoots 48.4% from the floor and 37.2% from three, 2nd and 5th respectively in ACC play. Also, when the Devils miss, they are apt to get the rebound. Duke collects 33% of its missed shots, second only to Syracuse.

Bacot's blocks spur UNC

The Tar Heels have really applied themselves on the defensive end in recent games, after the disastrous two game stretch at Miami and Wake Forest. Teams shoot 43.2% against UNC; that’s one of the four best field goal defense averages in the ACC. And when opponents miss, that’s the end of the possession.

UNC rebounds 82.2% of opponent misses—best in the ACC by a wide margin.

Part of the reason for UNC’s defensive improvement comes from a surge in blocked shots by Armando Bacot. Not long ago, UNC ranked 11th in blocked shots, but over the last week the Heels have climbed to fourth, rejecting nearly four shots per game.

Offensively, UNC ranks among the ACC’s four best three point shooting teams. Thanks to Saturday’s 15-27 performance beyond the arc against NC State, UNC has now moved up to fourth best in the league, 38.5%.

Also this year, UNC is making its free throws. The Tar Heels as a team connect 78.4 % of the time. Only Virginia Tech is better in ACC play.

Duke needs to hold the ball better

The Blue Devils can be turnover prone. Duke commits 11.78 turnovers per game. Even in Monday’s rout of Notre Dame, the Devils coughed up the basketball 14 times, even though the Irish don’t look to force a ton of turnovers as part of their defensive philosophy.

Offensively Duke really struggles at the free throw line. The Devils hit just 67.5% of their charity tosses. Only Louisville is worse.

UNC must get more takeaways

While UNC’s defense has improved, the Tar Heels continue to be generous along the three point line. Teams shoot 36% from three against the Heels, that’s just 9th best in the league and a full nine points behind Duke.

UNC ranks near the bottom in steals. The Tar Heels get just 4.9 per game. UNC does not force a lot of turnovers, and the Tar Heels commit too many, 11 per game. Though just a week ago it was 12 turnovers per game.

Finally, while UNC is top four at shooting threes, the Heels are just 9th in shooting overall. Meanwhile, UNC shoots 46% from two point territory. Bacot, Love, and Davis have all struggled to make shots in close during recent weeks against good defenses.

Probable matchups:

Mark Williams vs Armando Bacot

Paolo Banchero vs Brady Manek

A.J. Griffin vs Leaky Black

Caleb Love vs Wendell Moore

Jeremy Roach/Trevor Keels vs R.J. Davis

Duke needs big game from Banchero

How well can Banchero operate against Manek? The UNC forward struggled defending Miami’s Sam Waardenburg and Wake Forest’s Jake LaRavia. Banchero is more skilled than either but can be streaky shooting the basketball.

How well does Williams get on the offensive glass against Bacot. Second chance opportunities are a big part of Williams’ game, but he’s going against the ACC’s best defensive rebounder. Also, can Williams be a factor in Duke’s half court offense? He has to avoid foul trouble.

Griffin must stay hot. The Duke freshman has hit 14-24 in the last two games and six of seven for three. If he can put up those kinds of numbers against Black. UNC’s best defender, that’s huge for Duke.

Trevor Keels—how much can he do? He is bigger and a more physical defender than Roach. Also a streaky three point shooter. Roach has been playing well lately but if Keels can return to his pre-injury level of play, that gives Duke more options offensively and defensively.

Transition game. It’s hard to run off UNC misses because the Tar Heels do a good job of attacking the offensive glass and that means guards must help rebound, slowing down the fast break going the other way. But if Duke can force lots of turnovers-and UNC like Duke is turnover prone-that could get the Blue Devils downcourt more quickly.

Game of runs. Duke can score points in bursts when the Blue Devils are forcing turnovers, getting out on the fast break, and making three point shots. If Duke builds a double digit lead, how will UNC respond?

Up-tempo play, early lead could be key for UNC

Staying the course. UNC fell behind at both Miami and Wake Forest and could not find its way back into the game. Has this team learned anything about mental toughness since those defeats? The Louisville game would suggest they have, but they never fell behind by more than four in the second half.

Bacot on the low block. He has dominated some games with his strength and post moves, but has also struggled against good team defenses. He has not faced an individual like the 7’1 Williams, who excels at blocking or altering shots. Furthermore, the UNC star is just 17-51 over his last four games prior to Louisville, though he is shooting 53% in ACC games. Williams can be foul prone. How will this matchup play out?

Manek on the three-point line. If Manek can keep shooting as he did Saturday vs. NC State, how tightly will Banchero play him? Banchero is Duke’s best defensive rebounder. Can he get on the defensive glass starting from 20 feet away? Can he stay out of foul trouble?

Love and Davis attacking the basket. In UNC’s best games, Love and Davis attack the basket, setting up the triple threat of the score, the dish to Bacot, or the kickout to Manek. Can they slip past Duke’s elite defenders, or can the Blue Devils shut down dribble penetration? One of the biggest keys to Saturday’s outcome. Love and Davis must make good decisions on those drives. Against U of L Love especially tried too hard for the big play a couple of times and turned the ball over.

Fast break points. UNC scored 25 fast break points against NC State. Transition chances will help the Heels immensely; they could reduce the number of possessions where they have to attack Duke’s half court defense. To get the fast break going, UNC will likely need to take advantage of the Devils’ sometimes spotty ball handling, and force turnovers.

Both teams come into Saturday’s showdown with some momentum—four straight wins. And of course there’s the Krzyzewski factor, as the game’s winningest coach brings one last Duke team to the Dean Smith Center.