Holliday: Opportunities lost for NC State, UNC

By Bob Holliday, WRAL Sports contributor

The Triangle’s dream scenario seemed so real a week ago. NC State would beat Wake Forest and Syracuse. UNC would upset Pitt. The two rivals would play each other for a trip to the ACC Championship in Charlotte. Epic! Savage! However, the Wolfpack’s three point loss at Wake and the Tar Heels’ overtime defeat at Pitt have lowered the stakes on November 26. NC State will need outside help to claim a share of the Atlantic Division title and UNC now has no shot at the Coastal –and in truth, even if the Tar Heels had beaten the Panthers the injury to Virginia’s Brennan Armstrong likely eliminates the chance of a Cavalier upset this week at Heinz Field and that was a pre-requisite for UNC forging a three way tie for first in the Coastal.

Both State and Carolina will be expected to win this week, which means each team will have plenty to play for when the two sides collide at the Carter. The dream scenario was going to be so much fun! Alas, both the Pack and the Heels let opportunity slip away.

Pack can’t capitalize on Wake’s weakness

UNC provided a blueprint for beating Wake Forest. Run the ball. Keep the ball. Make Sam Hartman watch on the sidelines.

NC State did not run the ball. It wasn’t that the Wolfpack couldn’t run the ball—backs averaged four yards per carry. It’s that State chose not to run the ball, even though Wake Forest allows a whopping 216 yards per game on the ground.

NC State ran the ball exactly 18 times. The Wolfpack passed 59 times. That’s more than three passes for every run. It’s as if Wake Forest rolled out a special defensive alignment to make the pass look more inviting. And State’s offensive coordinator Tim Beck took the bait.

Now both Bam Knight and Ricky Person limped off the field a time or two. Maybe Beck didn’t want to get them more banged up? Otherwise, I can’t imagine why NC State’s run-pass balance should be so out of whack. Against Florida State, the Pack ran 37 times and passed 32. That to me would be a more optimal approach to attacking Wake’s weakness defending the run.

Instead, NC State took on the ACC’s fifth best pass defense 59 times.

Passing is NC State’s best weapon-I get that; but throwing so often created some serious other implications for the outcome of the game.

By passing 77% of the time, the Wolfpack invited more pressure on Devin Leary. He was sacked twice and hurried six other times. 59 passes created more opportunities for Wake Forest interceptions. Leary had not thrown a regulation pick (not counting the Hail Mary at the end of the first half at FSU) since the second week of the season. Wake snared two of his passes.

Abandoning the run meant State often found itself off schedule. Dave Doeren said after the game his team’s inability to convert on third down was a big factor in the game. He’s right. State converted just 3 out of 14. Part of the problem was that the Wolfpack often found itself in third and long.

Finally, NC State’s love affair with the pass led to a big advantage for Wake in time of possession. The Deacons spent three minutes and twenty seconds more than the Wolfpack on offense. Given the injuries and subsequent lack of depth in places on Tony Gibson’s unit, that extra 3:20 loomed large.

By contrast, Wake Forest ran the ball 44 times. It wasn’t that Wake was racking up huge chunk plays against NC State’s outstanding run defense. The Deacons gained only 116 yards, barely 2.6 per carry. But those runs provided Wake quarterback Sam Hartman with cover on a night when some of his passes weren’t sharp. Hartman completed just 20-47 for 42%. That’s way below his season completion percentage of nearly 63%. He also threw three interceptions. When does that happen? But those timely runs by Justice Ellison and Christian Turner, as well as by Hartman himself, helped the Deacons move the chains.

Wake converted 10 of 19 third downs, also a key factor in the game.

In sum, despite some great moments in the game for Leary and his receivers, Wake’s was the more consistent offense. Five times the Deacons drove the length of the field for touchdowns. Wake ran 91 plays to NC State’s 77. That’s a long time for any defense—even one with as much heart as NC State’s—to be on the field. No wonder the Wolfpack gave up two critical long touchdown drive in the fourth quarter and did not force a single Wake punt in the final 21 ½ minutes of the game.

Though NC State was outplayed from scrimmage, two long kickoff returns by Bam Knight nearly proved to be the equalizer. Knight returned a second quarter kick 72 yards, leading to an easy touchdown for the offense. Then Knight, as he so often did in his days at Southern Nash High School, returned the opening kickoff of the second half 100 yards for a touchdown. This gave State its only lead of the night at 27-24. But Wake answered immediately with yet one more long touchdown drive. And the Wolfpack played from behind the rest of the night.

One other big factor in the Wolfpack’s loss: Penalties. NC State was flagged 14 times for 119 yards. That’s way out of character for this Dave Doeren team.

NC State can still tie for the division title. Wake must play at Clemson and at Boston College, which is suddenly much more formidable with the return of Phil Jurkovec at quarterback. If Wake loses both games and State wins out there would be a three way tie atop the Atlantic among State, Wake, and Clemson. As I look at the ACC’s tiebreaker procedures, there is a strong possibility under this scenario that the Wolfpack could win the right to play for the ACC Championship in Charlotte. But first the Pack must address what went wrong at Wake; then go beat both Syracuse and UNC.

Heels rally not enough

In a season of underachievement, North Carolina’s first half at Pittsburgh may have been the worst. The Tar Heels gave up two long punt returns to Jordan Addison, both of which led to short field touchdowns. They surrendered three Kenny Pickett pass completions of more than 25 yards, not to mention multiple chunk runs by Israel Abanikanda. UNC committed seven first half penalties for 73 yards and allowed five first half sacks. Carolina’s one touchdown in the first 30 minutes came on a lucky break. Antoine Green broke free in the Pitt secondary when his defender slipped. Sam Howell found him on a second and 19 at the UNC 24. That 76 yard touchdown represented most of UNC’s first half offense.

And yet, Monday morning quarterbacking now suggests this is a game UNC could have and should have won. Certainly, credit Carolina with a remarkable second half comeback.

The Tar Heels began with a drive to the Pitt 23. Howell called his own number on fourth and one, but was stopped short on a helmet to helmet tackle. File that empty trip away for now, but note that Pitt may have won the Coastal title with that stop on the Carolina quarterback.

For UNC kept coming. A 53 yard drive ended with a second Howell to Green touchdown pass. An 81 yard drive ended in a Sam Howell touchdown. This time he got the yard on fourth and one. And finally, a chip shot field goal by Grayson Atkins tied the game, the kick set up by an interception from Jeremiah Gemmel at the Pitt 35.

Defensively UNC shut down the high powered Pitt offense. The Panthers gained exactly two yards on the ground and only 102 through the air in the second half. Pitt did not score in the second half, finishing with 23 points in regulation. Pitt averages 45 points per game.

UNC went to overtime with all the momentum. But quickly lost it.

A cold front passed through Pittsburgh during the fourth quarter, bringing rain and wind. During the extra period, the intensity of the rain really picked up. Pitt handled the elements better than UNC.

In OT, Pickett threw a perfect ball to Lucas Krull which he managed to catch and hold onto. Meanwhile Howell threw two incompletions and an interception.

Afterward Mack Brown second guessed his decision to play for a tie in regulation, particularly since he didn’t know how much worse conditions would become in OT. Hindsight might also focus on some other moments in the second half where the Tar Heels could have scored more points.

Start with the first drive of the second half. Howell usually gets the yard on fourth and one, but since he didn’t, a field goal there from 45 yards would have been big-as things turned out.

On the touchdown drive, UNC chose to attempt a two point conversion. It failed. I’m sure the coaching staff felt that since Pitt’s defense was so tough, UNC might not get but one more scoring chance, so try to make it a one score game. But more than 20 minutes of football remained. It was pretty early to gamble on two. Even without the spurning of the 45 yard field goal, kicking the PAT there would have won the game.

The third Tar Heel drive also deserves some scrutiny. UNC faced a third and four at the Pitt 39. Howell threw two incomplete passes. No second guessing on the decision not to try a 56 yard field goal; that would have been out of Atkins’ range. But turning the ball over on downs on that drive is part of what cost UNC the win.

UNC gained 263 yards in the second half and monopolized the football, winning time of possession by a whopping 21 minutes to 9. Yet Carolina came away with just 16 points for all that good work.

One other note: In the closing seconds of regulation, Pitt tried to pass for the win. Cam’Ron Kelly got his hands on Pickett’s first down pass to Addison. But Kelly could not hold on. And UNC’s chance at victory also slipped away.

Wofford is next for UNC. The program has made a tradition of scheduling a non-conference, non Power Five opponent for the final home game. Most of these have been huge blowouts. The only of these games that was even remotely close came in Larry Fedora’s final season when UNC beat Western Carolina 49-26.

Wofford, which has not won since nipping Elon September 4, will be the weakest Senior Day opponent yet. The Tar Heels can rest starters for much of the game, and Brown has already indicated Howell likely won’t play at all after getting banged up at Heinz Field.

Still, UNC must fix the things that are losing football games: Pass protection, pass coverage, third down play both ways, and leading the league in penalties.

Beating Wofford makes UNC bowl eligible. But because of the way this season has unfolded, the Tar Heel post-season will be influenced greatly by what happens on the final Friday in November. And if UNC can’t fix the protection, coverage, and penalties et al, it has very little chance of beating NC State.