Holliday: Pack puts down Cards, could deal UNC out of postseason

By Bob Holliday, WRAL Sports contributor

The Wolfpack and Tar Heels don’t meet for another month, but Saturday night Twitter was teeming with NC State fans relishing the possibility of playing a five-win Carolina team (the Tar Heels play Wofford in addition to Wake Forest and Pitt) and then ending the Heels’ season on Nov. 26.

And what if NC State needed to win that game to claim the Atlantic Division title? Wouldn’t that be a high stakes game for the ages? Wake Forest, of course, will have something to say about the futures of both State and Carolina over the next two weeks. But headed into November it’s clear that NC State, even in winning, and UNC in losing, both have much to improve upon.

State rallies past Louisville

This game was much closer than the 28-13 final score.

NC State won because of timely red zone defense and pinpoint passing in the fourth quarter by the Pack’s much overlooked quarterback Devin Leary. However, Louisville rushed for 215 yards, more than double what State usually gives up on the ground. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack would generate just 44 yards on the ground. That’s not even one-third of State’s rushing average and not even one-third of the 146 yards The Cardinals usually allow. This ground game no show against the average rushing defense of Louisville comes on the heels of another run-starved performance at Miami. State in that game was credited with 111 yards rushing but 42 of those yards came on a fake punt; so that was in effect a 69 yard effort. Rushing for 69 yards and then 44 yards is not a recipe for winning football games in November, no matter how good the passing attack.

NC State ran for 148 yards against Clemson and 167 yards against Louisiana Tech. What has changed? The Wolfpack has lost one lineman to injury, though the defense has suffered far worse personnel losses and continued to play well. Some analysts have suggested offensive coordinator Tim Beck is too predictable on his play selection, especially at calling runs on first down-though I would note that he called more passes than runs on first down against Louisville. Maybe the offense needs a third running back to lighten the load on Bam Knight and Ricky Person? The top two running backs each average about a dozen carries per game and the cumulative pounding could be taking its toll.

Whatever, the Wolfpack needs to get back to the 150 yards games that characterize most of this season before opponents start dropping more defenders into pass coverage in an effort to cool off State’s red hot quarterback.

NC State’s allowing Louisville 215 yards rushing is, I suspect, a concern for Dave Doeren—though not nearly as big a concern as the Pack’s increasingly impotent rushing offense. Injuries and continuity are both factors here. State has lost five players for the season on defense. No doubt those still playing are adapting to the recent loss of team leader Isaiah Moore, though linebacker Drake Thomas stood out Saturday in Moore’s absence. It must be said that Malik Cunningham is very difficult to defend. He rushed for 76 yards even after subtraction of NC State’s sack yardage. The big story is that State kept Cunningham the runner out of the end zone and that’s a good thing, because the Pack will see another outstanding running quarterback this week at Florida State in Travis Jordan.

In fact, all of NC State’s remaining opponents rank among the best in the league at running the football. Tony Gibson’s unit has some work to do if it is to finish as the ACC leader in rushing defense. Pitt is now number one at 104 yards per game, after giving up mostly passing yards in the loss to Miami. NC State is currently allowing 108 yards per game, after spending the entire season with an average in the low 90’s.

Still, there was much to like about NC State’s defensive effort over all. The Pack held the explosive Cardinals to just one touchdown; that came when Cunningham took advantage of a wide open deep receiver Jordan Watkins during a blitz. State held U of L to a collective three points on two trips to the red zone. One other Cardinals’ drive, which reached the Pack’s 24, also ended in a field goal. NC State stopped Louisville on downs three times. The Wolfpack’s Shyheim Battle stopped another Cardinal drive with an interception. Scott Satterfield’s team averages 29 points per game and normally monopolizes the football, dominating time of possession. NC State held the Cards 16 points below their scoring average and kept time of possession almost dead even. And that helped the NC State offense.

The Wolfpack passing game was fun to watch, especially in the fourth quarter. Leary continued his long streak of games without an interception. The quarterback completed about 70% of his passes and spread the ball around to 11 different receivers. The wideouts ran crisp routes and got separation from defenders. Drops were not an issue like they were for Devin Carter at Miami. Carter in fact had a nice game with four catches for 43 yards. He also caught the game winning touchdown. Emeka Emezie snared five passes for 91 yards and a touchdown. Leary throw four touchdown passes, three in the fourth quarter, and the Pack needed every one to take down the Cardinals.

But note that Louisville ranks 13th in the ACC in pass defense, allowing 281 yards per game. NC State will see better pass defenses the rest of the way. That’s another reason why this team needs to restore its run-pass balance as the cold and wind of November move in.

Heels’ best loss?

If North Carolina had taken an unblemished record to South Bend as everyone back in August expected, Saturday night’s effort would have been good enough to at least keep the Tar Heels in the national rankings. After all, UNC amassed 554 yards of total offense in Notre Dame Stadium and held the Irish to just 59 yards rushing in the first half. The Tar Heels did some good things on special teams, making two field goals, punting for an average of 43 yards, and piling up 106 yards in kick returns, including one 40 yard return by Ja’Qurious Conley. There were critical mistakes, which I’ll get to, but for the most part North Carolina competed evenly with the eighth best team in the country.

So after some bad losses—Virginia Tech, then especially Georgia Tech and Florida State—UNC can finally point to a respectable loss. But because of the early stumbles, this team has little margin for error if it has designs on December football.

And the fact is, the word error describes too many moments in UNC games. There were a few absolute killer mistakes that cost Carolina the chance of an upset at Notre Dame.

For all the good things UNC did on special teams Saturday, the usually reliable punt coverage team allowed Kyren Williams to take Ben Kiernan’s first punt back 47 yards. So instead of starting deep in its own territory, Notre Dame began its second possession at the UNC 41. The Irish needed just seven plays to navigate the short field.

UNC trailed just 10-7 in the second quarter but had a golden opportunity to take the lead with second and goal at the Notre Dame 5. Sam Howell threw a touchdown pass, but it was called back because of holding on Marcus McKethan. And then on third down Howell was sacked—not the first time this season a Carolina scoring chance was reduced to a field goal because of the 1-2 punch of holding followed by a sack.

Then came a big defensive penalty. Notre Dame drove to the UNC 34, but the Heels dropped Williams for a two yard loss and then pressured Jack Coan into an incomplete pass on fourth down. The ball should have gone over to UNC on downs, but it didn’t, because Tim Morrison had committed a face mask penalty away from the play. Instead of taking over possession in good field position, UNC gave up a touchdown on the very next play.

To Carolina’s credit, the team made things happen in the final minute of the first half, starting with Conley’s kick return. Howell and company covered 51 of the remaining 60 yards, mostly on runs by D.J. Jones and one pass to Josh Downs. Grayson Atkins kicked a field goal and the Tar Heels had much to feel good about headed to the locker room down just 17-13.

Sure enough UNC took the lead to start the second half, covering 79 yards in just five plays. Ty Chandler, looking like he was shot out of a cannon, exploded through a big hole for the final 53. So think about that-in back to back drives at the end of the first half and the beginning of the second, UNC piled up 130 yards and 10 points in about 2 ½ minutes time against a defense that normally allows 390 yards and 24 points over an entire game.

But too often the good UNC is followed by the bad UNC. Notre Dame sped 75 yards in exactly three plays against the Tar Heels’ maddeningly inconsistent defense. Williams rushed for 14, Lorenzo Styles took a simple swing pass 40 yards as Conley was caught out of position on the play, and then Coan, who is not exactly Ian Book running the football, was allowed to cover all of the remaining 21 yards. UNC would never lead again.

And the penalty problem resurfaced. Jordan Tucker false started at the UNC 18, putting the Tar Heels off schedule with a first and 15. D.J. Jones did everything humanly possible to make up that extra distance, taking a Howell pass for 12, but officials marked him just short of the line to gain.

After the teams traded touchdowns, UNC forced a three and out, its first since early in the game. The Tar Heels moved from their own 40 to the Notre Dame 44, trailing just 31-27 as the third quarter ended. But on the first play of the fourth quarter, Josh Downs dropped a pass. It was a third down tunnel screen and there were players around him, though the ball was catchable. The Dynamic Downs caught 10 balls for 140 yards; but if he had caught that 11th pass, UNC might have won the game. With fourth and nine at the 44, Mack Brown left Howell on the field. But had him kick rather than throw a pass.

The strategy to pin ND deep in its own territory looked for a moment like it might work. UNC had Williams hemmed in at his own 5. Jeremiah Gemmel , UNC’s best defender made contact with Williams. But Kyren reversed his field, give a stiff arm to Tomon Fox on the other side, and bolted down the sideline. Ball game.

So now UNC faces Wake Forest, which boasts a much more dynamic offense than Notre Dame’s. This UNC defense, which has trouble tackling at times, sometimes loses track of receivers, and commits costly penalties-usually on third down-must get ready for a well balanced offense that averages 495 yards and 43 points per game. Sam Hartman has thrown 22 touchdown passes against just four interceptions. The Deacons’ delayed zone read is just about unstoppable. Wake converts nearly half of its third down opportunities. Wake Forest punts less frequently than any other team in the ACC.

Sam Howell won last year’s “battle of the Sam’s” 59-53, because THAT UNC defense got five stops against the Deacons in the second half. How many stops can UNC 2021 make? One? Two?

NC State cannot afford to pay attention to the Wake-UNC Big Four shootout. The Wolfpack will have its hands full in Tallahassee, trying to tame an improving Florida State squad disappointed that it didn’t’ win at Clemson.

But NC State fans will pay attention to the Deacs and the Heels. What happens Saturday – for NC State and UNC – and what happens the following week when the Pack visits Wake and the Heels travel to Pitt-will go a long way toward defining the motivating factors in the big game, UNC at NC State on the final Friday of November.