Holliday: Pivotal road trips for NC State and Duke

By Bob Holliday, WRAL Sports contributor

NC State moved into a tie for fourth place with its home win against Georgia Tech. But now the Wolfpack is in the midst of a three game road trip, and that trip did not begin well. Virginia built a 16 point lead in the first half and never let the Pack back in the game, holding State to a measly 50 points.

Now 9-5, NC State desperately needs a road win to solidify its hold on fifth place. The Pack has two chances within the next week, at Boston College and at Syracuse. Based on records, 5-8 BC should be an easier mark than 7-6 Syracuse. But the Pack can’t sleep on Boston College.

BC sits 11th in league play but the Eagles are 4-3 at the Conte Forum. Just last week Earl Grant’s team took down first place Clemson. The Eagles defeated Virginia Tech at Chestnut Hill and came within a point of taking Duke to overtime.

Tempo will be something to watch for Saturday. NC State likes high scoring games—the 94 the Wolfpack put up at home against Florida State comes to mind. But after two slower paced contests against Georgia Tech and Virginia, State should now be a bit more accustomed to deliberate play.

Still, guys like Terquavion Smith and Jarkel Joiner seem to play better when they are running up and down the floor. Smith is just 9-31 these last two games played in the 50’s and 60’s, while Joiner is a shocking 3-20.

The Wolfpack will press of course, but Boston College has experienced guards and is not especially turnover prone like Florida State or Georgia Tech. Turnovers can lead to a faster pace. State forces more than a dozen turnovers per game but won’t have the benefit or a roaring home crowd to rattle the opposition.

Boston College averages fewer than 6,000 fans at its home games; only Miami draws smaller crowds. Add in the fact that this game starts at 12 noon—NC State may have to manufacture its own energy Saturday, and even then BC will likely defeat the Wolfpack pressure in the backcourt and then methodically run off 20-25 seconds of the shot clock before taking aim at the basket.

BC is not a great three point shooting team, hitting just 30% in conference play. But the Eagles’ guards excel at attacking off the bounce. Makai Ashton-Langford and Jaeden Zackery both average in double figures. Additionally, Quinton Post has come on in ACC games to provide a “post presence,” (pun intended!).

Post averages almost 16 points per game and he shoots a high percentage, 56%.

NC State puts up a lot of threes and BC is not that great at defending threes. Advantage Wolfpack. The Pack puts up more than 22 threes per game, but know that State can be streaky from beyond the arc. The Pack hit 12-20 in the up tempo game against Florida State, but just 7-21 in the slower paced game against GeorgiaTech. Most notably Smith and Joiner hit just 2-13! The Wolfpack followed the same pattern at Virginia, going 8-27, thanks mostly to the marksmanship of former Cavalier Casey Morsell. Smith and Joiner went 4-18. Both of these players shoot better than 35% from three for the season.

One thing that travels well is NC State’s inside game featuring the ever popular D.J. Burns. Regardless of the tempo or style of game, the Wolfpack can find Burns on the low block, although foul trouble limited Burns to just 21 minutes Tuesday night in Charlottesville.

Burns seems to be at his best on Saturdays—24 points against Georgia Tech last weekend and 31 points against Wake Forest the previous Saturday, on a combined 25 of 47 shots. Burns can score a variety of ways; layups with either hand, hooks, jump hooks, and though he has not made a three pointer his jump shot is reliable in the painted area.

Burns has the ability to send the foul prone Post to the bench for a spell, and that makes the BC offense less effective.

Boston College is a sneaky good offensive rebounding team collecting 28% of its misses in ACC games. The Eagles’ guards, especially Zackery and Prince Aligbe, are good at running down long rebounds. NC State is one of the ACC’s best defensive rebounding teams, clearing 75% of opponent misses. But the Pack’s guards, Smith, Joiner, and Casey Morsell, will need to box out before releasing down court for a possible fast break.

Fouls have been a problem for NC State at times this season. The Wolfpack commits an average of 18 fouls per game. It will be important for Kevin Keatts’ club to defend without fouling at the Conte Forum. BC shoots 79% from the free throw line in ACC games—only Clemson and Pitt are better. Quite frankly, free throws are a big part of why BC is able to stay in most games.

NC State needs to get some early separation in this battle. If the Pack is to match its all time record of 12 ACC wins in one season, it must avoid any Cardiac Pack moments at the Conte Forum.

Can the Devils find redemption on the road?

Duke remains undefeated at Cameron but the Blue Devils have struggled mightily in other ACC arenas, most recently getting shelled at Miami 81-59. Duke also lost at Wake Forest by 11 and at NC State by 24. This team has just two ACC road wins and one of them came by a scant one point at Boston College.

Tough as the Miami trip was, Duke faces a possibly more difficult test this weekend, travelling to Charlottesville to play the ACC’s first place team, Virginia. The Cavaliers are undefeated in league games at the John Paul Jones Arena.

Virginia suffered early ACC losses at Miami and Pittsburgh, but the Cavaliers then rode off on a seven game winning streak. It took a hot shooting rival, Virginia Tech, to bring Tony Bennett’s club down. VT shot 39% from beyond the arc that day in Blacksburg and 51% overall.

Like the Cavalier team that won the NCAA Title in 2019, this team can shoot the basketball. Virginia leads the ACC in shooting beyond the arc, making 39%. The Cavs didn’t take many three pointers against NC State—didn’t need to. But Isaac McNeely hit 2-5 from off the bench. His emergence means Duke must be aware of five different three point shooters. Kihei Clark, Reece Beekman, and Armann Franklin all shoot 40% or better, and don’t ignore Ben Vander Plas when he comes off the bench.

The Cavaliers aren’t too shabby inside the arc either, shooting about 45% overall, same as Duke.

One reason Virginia shoots the ball so well is that the Cavaliers move the ball so well, leading the ACC with 17 assists per game. Clark, who played on that 2019 championship team averages six assists per game, second only to Tyree Appleby of Wake Forest. Beekman is right behind Clark averaging 5.5 assists per game. Appleby averages 7 assists per game but Wake plays at a faster tempo so he gets more passing opportunities.

Wake Forest ranks #88 in the nation in tempo, averaging 72 possessions per game. Virginia ranks 358th out of 363 teams, getting just 64 possessions per game.

Many ACC teams become impatient playing Virginia’s slower tempo. NC State certainly did. Duke may not be quite so uncomfortable. The Blue Devils are playing about slower under first year coach Jon Scheyer. Duke averages 68 possessions per game. 287 teams in America play faster.

The Miami game aside, most nights Duke defends well enough to compete with Virginia. The Blue Devils are top five in both field goal percentage defense (42%) and three point percentage defense (33%). Two of Virginia’s losses came against the ACC’s stingiest defenses, Pitt and Miami.

Dereck Lively’s emergence as a shot blocker could create problems for Virginia’s drives to the basket. Part of what makes Virginia so difficult to defend is that the Cavaliers will move the ball and make opponents defend for 20-25 seconds. And then UVA is equally effective attacking inside or kicking out to a shooter. Maybe Lively can turn away some of the back door cuts the Cavs racked up against State.

Second shots could be important Saturday. Duke dominates the offensive glass (except for Monday at Miami). But the Blue Devils do allow extra chances at the defensive end, ranking just 7th in defensive rebounding percentage at 73%. Virginia, which only sends two players to crash the glass, in order to devote three guys to dropping back to stop the fast break, is getting more second chances this year. The Cavaliers corral 27% of their misses. Duke’s perimeter players must box out and watch for long rebounds and especially tip outs.

Duke’s biggest challenge at Virginia comes on the offensive end. Other than Jeremy Roach, no Duke player has seen Bennett’s unique Pack Line defense. How will Lively and Kyle Filipowski react to the double teams in the post?

Virginia forces 13 turnovers per game. That’s a turnover every five possessions, and Duke is turnover prone. NC State committed 12 turnovers and the Wolfpack ranks among the league’s best at taking care of the ball. Duke, meanwhile, committed 21 turnovers at Miami, leading to about two dozen Hurricane points at the other end.

The Blue Devils have limited their giveaways to single digits in games against Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech. It will probably take that kind of performance to be competitive at UVA.

Inside, Kadin Shedrick has become one of the league’s top shot blockers. The Holly Springs product will give up an inch to Lively and Filipowski but certainly could impact drives by Duke’s perimeter players.

Duke defeated North Carolina largely on the strength of aggressive transition play. But the Blue Devils can’t expect to get many fast break baskets against Virginia, unless there is a live ball turnover leading to a breakaway. Problem is, Virginia rarely turns the ball over and Duke ranks near the bottom of the ACC in steals.

Virginia does have a vulnerability or two. The Cavaliers allow teams to shoot 35% from three, which is just ninth best. Duke is not a great three point shooting team as a whole, but Roach, Filipowski, Tyrese Proctor, and Jacob Grandison have made some big threes in games at Cameron. What about at the Jones?

Duke’s best hope is to manage its shot selection and take shots that can be rebounded. Air balls can be a problem against the stingy Wahoos, who defend with passion until the very last seconds of the shot clock. But if Duke can at least get the ball on the rim, well, the Blue Devils get 35% of their their misses and Virginia fails to clear the defensive boards 27% of the time, so there is opportunity in that category.

Duke has the size and talent to beat Virginia in a game at Cameron. But can this young team execute well enough to win in Charlottesville?