Holliday: State and Carolina headed in different directions for the final two weeks
Posted February 21, 2023 8:59 a.m. EST
NC State lost 21 games in 2022. Most of the players on that team moved on. Kevin Keatts had to completely restock his roster, bringing in the likes of Jarkel Joiner, Jack Clark and D.J. Burns to go with holdovers Terquavion Smith and Casey Morsell.
UNC won 29 games last season, finishing a basket or two away from winning the national championship. The Tar Heels returned no fewer than eight key players from that NCAA runner up team, including four of the five starters. And yet, following NC State’s 77-69 win over North Carolina Sunday, the Wolfpack has played its way into the 2023 NCAA Tournament, while the Tar Heels continue to play their way out. Carolina could still hear its name called on Selection Sunday, but now faces an uphill struggle.
Several of Keatts’ teams at State have lived and died by the jump shot. This one, however, has an inside game. D.J. Burns more than held his own in the duel with preseason POY Armando Bacot. Burns outscored Bacot 18-16 and shot a higher percentage, though Bacot did grab 14 rebounds to Burns’ 3. NC State needed Burns’ paint points, because the three point shot, on which a fair portion of the Keatts philosophy rests, was MIA. The Wolfpack hit just 5-18 three pointers for 27%. Morsell and Jack Clark made four of those five.
NC State eventually got going inside the arc, but not until the second half. What sustained NC State most of the game was that other tenant of the Keatts philosophy, the turnover battle.
The home team did not turn the ball over in the entire first half. Not once. Meanwhile, UNC, which commits the fourth fewest turnovers in the league in conference games, about 9.9, pretty much hit its per game average in the first 20 minutes. The Heels turned the ball over 8 times in the opening stanza, leading directly to 12 NC State points.
UNC kept it close, thanks to shooting 40% in the first half to NC State’s 30%. Free throws were also a factor, as UNC built a 10 point advantage in points at the line, but the actual fouls were close 18-16, in sharp contrast to the game in Chapel Hill.
Carolina actually took a six point lead in the second half, quieting the raucous crowd at PNC Arena. Pete Nance made his first three since the first minute of the Pitt game on February 1. Moments later Caleb Love hit a three ball and R.J. Davis also buried a trifecta. UNC led 54-48.
The Tar Heels had three chances to add to that lead. Love missed on a drive to the basket. Bacot grabbed the offensive rebound but then was called for an offensive foul as he tried for the put back. Turnover. Love and Puff Johnson pushed the pace with a two on one fast break. But Love led his teammate just a foot too much; Puff tried to save the pass but it wound up in the hands of State’s L.J. Thomas. Another turnover. However, State could not capitalize and actually committed its very first turnover at the other end with 9:21 left. But Davis missed an open jumper and UNC’s chance at victory vanished shortly thereafter.
NC State’s offense, especially Joiner, caught fire. Nine straight times NC State rushed down court. Nine times the Wolfpack scored. Joiner made six of those nine baskets, accounting for 14 points in a 5 minute span, as the Pack went from six down to nine ahead, a 21-6 run.
The streak should have reached 10 straight baskets, but Ernest Ross missed a dunk. But by this point, State had control and PNC was ready to party.
So UNC is now 0-9 in Quad I games. In six of those games, the Tar Heels held a second half lead they couldn’t keep.
With three to play, Pack's biggest challenge comes at Duke
NC State has never won more than 12 conference games in the Atlantic Coast Conference. But this season the Wolfpack has a chance to get to 13, or even 14. Three games remain in the regular season.
Wake Forest: We’re just three weeks removed from NC State’s 79-77 win in Winston-Salem, one of the Wolfpack’s best wins all season. D.J. Burns lit up the Deacon defense for 31 points. Both Jarkel Joiner and Terquavion Smith shot well, which of late they have not done together in the same game all that often. Besides Smith going just 5-16 against UNC, he also went 5-16 in the loss at Syracuse while Joiner hit just 6-17. NC State’s backcourt is good defensively and did a great job of limiting Wake star Tyree Appleby, who hit just 4-12 against the Pack. Damari Monsanto poured in 22 against State last time out, but the return of Jack Clark gives this team another defender with size to slow Monsanto.
Wake is a dangerous team offensively. NC State must again win on the glass to keep the hot shooting Deacons from getting second chances.
Clemson: NC State shot a miserable 30% from the floor in losing 78-64 at Littlejohn. The foul-prone Wolfpack also sent the Tigers to the free throw line 24 times. Clemson cashed in 22 times. But that loss came in the ascendant part of Clemson’s season.
The Tigers started 7-0 and 10-1 in ACC play. Now of course, Clemson is in the descendant part of its season. The Tigers have lost four of their last five including 91-71 at UNC and 83-73 at lowly Louisville.
NC State now has a great chance to be able to move past Clemson and earn a top four seed, plus the coveted double bye.
Duke: NC State should be wary of this game. Duke is a very different team than it was January 4.
The Blue Devils completely throttled Syracuse in the dome 77-55. NC State of course, lost to the Orange in the same building just a few days prior.
Statistically, these two teams have much in common. In conference play, the Blue Devils and Wolfpack rank 1-2 in three point defense, blocked shots, and offensive rebounding percentage. NC State has a decided edge in turnover margin. Duke continues to cough up the basketball more than any other ACC team except Louisville.
But Duke is unbeaten at home and will be a tough out unless State can force enough live ball turnovers to get its fast break going-as it did against Carolina.
NC State finishes ACC play earlier than everyone else. The Wolfpack will have at least eight days off after the February 28 meeting at Cameron. If State can secure a top four seed, it will have nine days off.
With four to play, Heels need Quad 1 win
Notre Dame: As the curtain begins to fall on the illustrious coaching era of Mike Brey, his Fighting Irish are playing their best basketball of the conference season. Notre Dame lost a four-point game at Duke, and we saw what Duke then did to Syracuse. Saturday, the Irish came within a Dane Goodwin three ball of upsetting Virginia in Charlottesville.
This is a game that North Carolina could lose, especially if it can’t let go of the loss at NC State. South Bend figures to be emotional in Brey’s second to last home game, and if the streak shooting Irish start putting the ball in the basket, the Tar Heels, who are not a good shooting team, may not be able to match baskets with the Irish.
UNC dominated the boards in its 81-64 win over Notre Dame in early January. But the Irish battled evenly on the glass at Duke, also a top rebounding team. The Tar Heels can’t take anything for granted.
Virginia: UNC lost star Armando Bacot to injury during the first minute of the game in Charlottesville. The Tar Heels played well in the first half, held Virginia to 6-19 from beyond the arc, and outrebounded the Cavaliers by four even without Bacot. Unfortunately, the Tar Heels were done in by 13 turnovers, and Virginia won in the final minutes 65-58.
The rematch in Chapel Hill gives UNC yet one more chance at a Quad I win. Also, the Cavaliers seemed to have slipped a bit in recent weeks. They lost at Virginia Tech, needed overtime to secure the controversial win vs. Duke, won by just three at Louisville, then had to survive a last second shot to edge Notre Dame at home. UNC has already lost home games to Pitt and Miami. This team can ill afford to lose another.
Florida State: The Seminoles seemed to be rounding into form when they won back to back road games at Notre Dame and Pitt, and then nearly took down Clemson in Tallahassee. Since then, the ‘Noles have dropped seven of eight.
This is Leonard Hamilton’s worst defensive team in years. Teams shoot 46% from the floor against FSU in ACC play and a whopping 40% from three. But the Tar Heels are dead last in the league at shooting from beyond the arc, hitting a mere 29%. So the Heels probably can’t take advantage of FSU’s generosity beyond the arc and this could be a tight game. Florida State has four double figure scorers and Leaky Black can only cover one of them. Caleb Mills shot 21 free throws against Boston College and the ‘Noles forced 21 BC turnovers.
UNC must avoid fouls and take care of the basketball. Or this game could get away.
Duke: By the day of this game, March 4, UNC might well have solidified its seed for the ACC Tournament. Or not. UNC sits in the 9th spot. If the Heels finish with a flourish they could challenge for the 7th seed. But at this point the Tar Heels could still potentially fall behind Boston College into the 10th seed. That would be the ultimate disaster. With a sub .500 ACC record UNC would absolutely have to win the ACC Tournament to make the NCAA. Also, the 10 seed plays a Tuesday game, and no team in this league has won the championship with five wins in five days. History will show that only one team has won the event playing four straight days.
Whatever UNC’s status come March, the Tar Heels will see a much better Duke team the second time around. The meeting February 4 was something of a turning point for both teams. This was a close game won by Duke in the final minute 63-57.
Since that game, the Blue Devils suffered the controversial overtime loss at Virginia, but beat Notre Dame and Louisville at home, and absolutely throttled Syracuse on the road. UNC, meanwhile, has won just one time since losing that game at Duke.
Duke fields one of the top defensive teams in the ACC. The shot blocking of Kyle Filipowski and especially Dereck Lively is formidable, even for Bacot. Offensively, Duke continues to improve ball movement. Result: The Blue Devils have improved their shooting, now hitting 45% overall and 35% from three. The Devils hit an amazing 13-26 Saturday against the Syracuse zone.
UNC will likely need to win its last four games to get back into the conversation for NCAA at large bids. Even then, UNC may need to do something at the ACC Tournament that it hasn’t done all year. Namely, beat a better team on a neutral court.
