Holliday: State survives, Heels roll, but does Duke expose cracks in the Victory Bell?

By Bob Holliday, WRALSportsFan columnist

The ACC took another hit Saturday when Cincinnati won at Notre Dame. The Bearcats own a second Power Five win-against Indiana-and face nothing but American Athletic Conference competition through the remainder of the regular season. Cincinnati ranks fifth in the latest AP Poll; so unless somebody like SMU or ECU can upset the Bearcats in late November, this “Great Hope from the Group of Five” will be competing with the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and perhaps the PAC-12 for one of the four coveted spots in the College Football Playoff.

UC’s win has a second effect. It knocks Notre Dame out of the top ten, and so ACC teams that face the Irish — Virginia Tech this week, and UNC later in October — won’t get as much bounce in the rankings should they win those games.

And the ACC needs all the bounce it can get. Undefeated Wake Forest is the league’s highest rated team at 19. NC State remains No. 23. Clemson, which held on late to defeat previously unbeaten Boston College, dropped out of the rankings, even in victory.

Critical win for the Pack

Louisiana Tech was a more difficult opponent than the casual NC State fan might understand. Bulldogs Coach Skip Holtz, like his father Lou back in the day, fields teams that can move the ball on anybody. Dave Doeren indicated in the run up to the game that La. Tech might be the best offense the Wolfpack had faced all season.

And of course the Bulldogs came calling one week after the Pack’s historic upset of Clemson. So how much emotion would NC State be able to summon for this non-conference game? The answer: just enough.

La. Tech is not a great defensive team — remember, the Bulldogs blew a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter at Mississippi State. So when NC State rushed for just 37 yards in the first half, Doeren expressed surprise in his halftime interview that the Bulldogs had taken away his team’s running game.

That changed in the second half. Ricky Person ripped off a 24 yard touchdown, running Tim Beck’s outside zone. Bam Knight did much of the work on the Pack’s next drive, with runs of 13, 15, and 10 before Devin Leary went to the air for a C.J. Riley touchdown pass. Knight powered his way for 37 more yards on just five carries on NC State’s third touchdown drive of the second half. And this time Knight did the scoring-from four yards out.

Doeren said post-game the coaching staff didn’t change anything schematically at halftime; but that the Pack’s offensive line did a much better job of “sustaining blocks.” Doeren also noted that getting back up after the Clemson win was “a monumental task.”

Good as State’s running game was in the second half, 120 yards, the Wolfpack was not able to put the game away on offense after La. Tech pulled within seven. Despite good field position at the NC State 35, the Pack went three and out, giving the Bulldogs and their outstanding quarterback Austin Kendall 2:56 to try to tie or win the game. Kendall, who passed for 343 yards, moved his team to the NC State 22 with five seconds left. Kendall threw to the end zone on the final play. Jakeen Harris made a shrewd break in front of the receiver and intercepted the pass, a game saving play.

State actually picked off two of Kendall’s passes on the night. Meanwhile, Leary, for the third straight game, did not throw an interception.

One more key factor: Special teams. Trenton Gill averaged 51 yards on his punts. Thayer Thomas returned four punts for 42 yards. Christopher Dunn rebounded from his field goal ofer against Clemson with a perfect 2-2 against the Bulldogs. Dunn also was perfect on four PAT’s. All these things mattered on a night when Louisiana Tech picked up 480 yards against one of the ACC’s very best defenses.

NC State now has a bye week, followed by its first big conference road trip of the season, to Boston College. Can the Pack keep winning?

Carolina overcomes a rough start

Forget the final score for a minute. To me, UNC’s first quarter against Duke looked like a continuation of the fourth quarter at Georgia Tech. Sam Howell got sacked. The offense could not sustain drives, punting after just five or six plays. Ben Kiernan’s rugby style punt was nearly blocked. Defensively, UNC was again gashed by the opponent’s run game. Duke’s Mateo Durant churned out chunk runs of 37, 11, and 20 yards; Durant totaled 91 yards on his first seven carries. Myles Murphy jumped offside on a 3rd and 8, leading to a Duke conversion on 4th and 1. UNC lost track of Duke tight end Jake Marwede on a seam pass of 18 yards. That enabled Duke to pick up its offensive tempo, as Georgia Tech did.

UNC survived that first quarter in part because of Duke offensive penalties that stopped drives. Duke to this point in the season is one of the ACC’s most penalized teams.

But make no mistake — David Cutcliffe had the right game plan. Run Mataeo Duran and Gunnar Holmberg — with tempo — like Georgia Tech did with Jeff Sims and Jahmyr Gibbs. On defense, pressure Sam Howell over the middle, exploiting the Tar Heels’ troubled center position.

Ailing Bryan Anderson started at center but lasted only one series. Cayden Baker, a converted tackle, centered on the next couple of drives before giving way to Quiron Johnson. The Tar Heels’ game of “musical centers” ended there.

The Cutcliffe plan was working to perfection until two plays, 15 and 17 minutes in, dramatically altered the complexion of the game.

-The TD pass to Chandler: UNC faced a 3rd and 7 at its own 25, staring head on at a third consecutive failed drive. Howell looked for Ty Chandler out of the backfield. And found him. Duke did not find Chandler-along the sideline-until the last instant, and by then Chandler had a lead in the 75 yard footrace to the end zone. 7-0. But, do note that it took UNC a full quarter to score against one of the ACC’s two most porous defenses.

-The scoop and score: UNC’s defense spent more than half of the first quarter on the field and got precious little rest when the offense scored in 1:29. Indeed, Durant on just two runs after the Chandler touchdown, moved Duke from its own 27 to the UNC 42. But then on 3rd & 8 from the Tar Heel 40, UNC’s Kevin Hester hit Holmberg as the threw. The ball floated to the turf a few yards away. Some players reacted as if it were an incomplete pass, but Trey Morrison scooped up the ball and raced unchallenged 58 yards to the end zone. Replay did in fact confirm a fumble rather than an incompletion. UNC now led 14-0.

The Tar Heels, who looked tight following the miserable finish in Atlanta, and the slow start against Duke, could finally relax.

During the rest of the afternoon, UNC looked like the powerhouse it was supposed to be in 2021. The Tar Heels moved the ball, amassing 456 in the game and converting 9 of 17 third downs. This had to lift the spirits of Coach Mack Brown, who in his post-game interview described his team as a “bad play big play offense.”

UNC’s defensive turnabout was even more impressive. Duke boasts one of the ACC’s most explosive offenses and the Blue Devils lead the league in rushing. UNC put the clamps on Durant after his early burst, allowing just 24 yards on his next 11 carries. Durant finished with 114 yards on 19 carries but that is below his average.

In total, Duke rushed and passed for just 308 yards, and 80 of those yards came on the Blue Devils one touchdown, Gunnar Holmberg’s 80 yard pass to Jalon Calhoun. Duke actually averages one more yard than UNC in total offense, 498 yards per game. So for UNC, holding the Devils to 190 yards less than their average, and to just seven points instead of Duke’s average of 28, was a good day’s work.

UNC excelled on third down, stopping Duke 13 times on 15 tries. The Tar Heels also forced a second Duke turnover, as Cam’Ron Kelly tipped a Holmberg aerial up in the air and caught it.

Saturday UNC faces Florida State. Mack Brown has never defeated his alma mater and players should have vivid memories of the beating they took last year in Tallahassee. Still, Jordan Travis is the kind of two way quarterback that historically gives UNC trouble.

Things UNC must do better

-Special teams. UNC allowed Duke 105 return yards on kickoffs and punts, while the Tar Heels got almost nothing going the other way. FSU through the years has made many big plays in the kicking game. UNC can’t allow a blocked punt or a big return this week.

-Run game. UNC’s run game was good but not great against Duke. The Heels rushed for 135 yards, but that’s 52 below their norm and also well below what Duke normally allows. FSU typically outrushes opponents by 48 yards per game. That was a big factor in UNC’s loss last season in Tallahassee. The Heels need to be able to run and mount some time consuming drives this week.

-Pass protection. Duke sacked Sam Howell five times and recorded five more quarterback hurries. And Duke until Saturday was not a big pass pressuring style of defense. Florida State is. The Seminoles rank third in the ACC in sacks with 14 in five games. UNC meanwhile, allows far more sacks than any other team in the league. I asked Brown and Howell in the preseason about the sack problem—pass protection was a problem in 2020 as well — and the two concurred that UNC’s high sack count was a function of both missed assignments in the offensive line and the quarterback holding the ball too long at times. Well, five games into 2021, both of those things are still happening!

UNC plays well at home and is favored both this week and next against Florida State and Miami. But if the Heels can’t cut down on the hits Howell takes during games, the possible three game win streak may not happen.

Can Duke regroup?

That wasn’t the Duke offense of 2021 we saw in the last three quarters Saturday. Can the Blue Devils get it rolling at home this week against a Georgia Tech team that was pulverized by Pitt?

Duke underachieved in the pass game against UNC — only 174 yards. Take away the long touchdown and Gunnar Holmberg’s 16 other completions went for just 94 yards, less than six yards per catch. Duke should fare better against Tech, which allowed 389 yards and four touchdowns through the air by the red hot Kenny Pickens. I would also note than even in victory against UNC the Yellow Jackets allowed 306 yards passing.

Georgia Tech’s rushing defense is comparable statistically to UNC. But remember, the Tar Heel defense against Duke received a huge jolt from those two big plays — especially the scoop and score off the Holmberg fumble. Mataeo Durant should get his yards against GT, and I look for Holmberg to run more effectively as well. UNC presented Holmberg with his first big hostile crowd, and that was probably a factor in his play. Also, because the Tar Heels grabbed a big early lead, the Blue Devils needed to throw more.

But remember, Duke is one of the ACC’s best at moving the chains, last week notwithstanding. The Blue Devils convert more than 49% of their third down chances. At the same time, Georgia Tech is merely 12th league wide in stops, allowing 42% conversion. If Duke can avoid turnovers—the Devils have nine in five games—than the Duke offense should look more like itself this week.

The greater question is how well will Duke stop the Georgia Tech offense? The Blue Devils rank near the bottom in scoring defense, 28.4 per game, and total defense, 427 yards per game. Duke seems equally amenable to giving up the run or the pass, and the Devils rank dead last in defensive third down conversions. Opponents get first downs almost 50% of the time.

Still, Georgia Tech’s offense is somewhat enigmatic. UNC kept the Yellow Jackets bottled up until Jeff Sims, who had been injured, entered the game late in the second quarter.

Sims rushed for 128 yards and three touchdowns in essentially one half of football and threw for 112 yards more and yet another touchdown. Against the same UNC defense that just shut down Duke. GT outscored UNC 39-15 after Sims entered the game. But against Pitt-and this game was also in Atlanta-Sims’ first pass was a pick six. He ultimately passed for 359 yards but threw a second interception and was not able to run effectively, and his team got buried. Bottom line, Sims makes big plays, but is streaky.

Consequently, Tech ranks 9th or 10th in most ACC offensive categories. The inconsistent Jackets convert just 34% of third downs, 13th in the league. The Jackets are not turnover prone, just five in five games. But Duke has an edge in red zone conversions and most aspects of the kicking game.

If Duke can prevent the big play and get some third down stops, the Blue Devils, with their explosive offense, have a solid shot to win playing at home.

To get a bowl bid — and that’s the goal this year — Duke needs three more wins. The Devils will be underdogs at nemesis Virginia and Wake Forest, and then later against Pitt and Virginia Tech. So Saturday against Georgia Tech is pretty critical if there is to be a postseason.