Holliday: UNC stumbles, Duke barely survives in battle for postseason

By Bob Holliday, WRAL Sports contributor

UNC’s stunning loss to Pittsburgh was the kind of game where the great Dean Smith would have said, “We weren’t prepared to play. And that’s my fault.”

In a season marked by periodically unexpected poor effort and execution, UNC’s first half at home against Pitt just might qualify as the worst. Given the high stakes NCAA Tournament consideration and a chance at the coveted double bye in next month’s Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament, UNC could not have picked a worse time to come out flat. Actually flat might be too kind a description.

Pitt outmuscled UNC badly in the first 20 minutes. The Tar Heels couldn’t make the highly contested shots they found themselves taking, hitting just 21% from three and 33% from inside the arc. UNC did not draw fouls from the physical Panthers—they were assessed just five in the first half—perhaps because almost 50% of UNC’s shots were errant three pointers.

Former Tar Heel K.J. Smith, now an analyst for the ACC Network, called his former teammates “selfish.” And the offensive ineptness bled over to the defensive side. Always a bit generous defending shots beyond the arc, UNC allowed Pitt, one of the league’s worst three point shooting teams, to make 6-9 from three in the first 20 minutes. Pitt led 40-23 at intermission, one of the three biggest halftime deficits UNC has ever faced in the Smith Center.

To its credit, Carolina played harder in the second half—unlike the Miami and Wake Forest losses. But the Heels did not play smarter.

After making a mighty push to cut the Panthers’ lead to 13, Armando Bacot spoiled a promising defensive possession by fouling 6’9 John Hugley as he fired a desperation three with one second on the shot clock. Hugley’s try banked in and then he made the free throw for a four point play. Kerwin Walton, who produced a spectacular offensive spree where he scored eight points in 1:16, also committed an ill-timed foul. Pitt again was one second away from a shot clock turnover when Walton fouled Ithiel Horton, who made both free throws. A third promising Tar Heel run was blunted by a turnover. Caleb Love scored 14 consecutive points for UNC, and then fed Brady Manek for a layup. The Tar Heels at that point trailed just 69-63 and the building was in an uproar. The noise increased when Manek picked off a Pitt pass at mid court with 1:48 left. But Manek and Love could not connect as the Heels tried to set up their offense. Turnover. Pitt was home free after that.

UNC played well enough in the second half to win—apart from allowing Pitt to bury four more threes. The Tar Heels shared the ball, hit 16-29 shots, and got the Panthers into deep foul trouble. The Heels forced nine Pitt turnovers and scored 13 points off those turnovers.

The big turnaround occurred perhaps more by accident than strategy on Coach Hubert Davis’ part. Bacot picked up his fourth foul with about 8 minutes to go. Given the Tar Heels’ lack of front court depth, Davis went to a small lineup. UNC trailed by 19 when Bacot went to the bench. The Heels got as close as six; but the first half debacle was just too much to overcome.

Pitt had won two of the last three in this series. No doubt the coaching Capel brothers, Jeff (Duke ’97) and Jason (UNC ’01) had this game circled on the Pitt schedule. More reasons why UNC should have been ready from the jump-not just the second half.

The Pitt loss undoes an outstanding performance by the Tar Heels Saturday against Florida State. The Heels shot 74% in the first half and built a 62-24 lead. They played excellent defense as well, with FSU missing its first 10 shots. UNC even got 22 points from the bench in that 94-74 win.

But now this program has only a small margin for error going forward. Currently 10-5 in the ACC, the Tar Heels’ post season hopes depend on a 3-2 or possibly a 4-1 finish in regular season league play. Anything less probably means a Wednesday game at the ACC Tournament. A Wednesday contest in Brooklyn creates the specter of one final bad loss. Even if the Heels were to survive the round of 12, they would be less rested for the all important quarter-finals and semi-finals, where they will likely need one, possibly two wins to make the Big Dance.

All this makes Saturday’s trip to Blacksburg UNC’s most important game of the season. Remember, in the first meeting, Virginia Tech did a great job of doubling down on Bacot after he started the game 6-6. Bacot only made one of his last thirteen shots over the final 35 minutes. Also, the Hokies trailed by just 57-54 with about five and a half minutes to go before UNC pulled away. VT is red hot now, winning six straight games, including a victory over Virginia Monday, and the Cavaliers had their own win streak going.

Seven teams now have a chance to win one of those four free passes to the quarter-finals. Virginia Tech is one of them, and if the Tar Heels can’t secure a road victory in Blacksburg, they could well be staring at a Wednesday game in Brooklyn.

Duke still on top, barely

If ever there were doubts about the competitiveness in the first tier of the ACC standings, the Wake Forest-Duke game should be Exhibit A in the conversation about parity. This was a game Duke dominated for 25 minutes, taking a 19 point lead on Paolo Banchero’s three ball. Duke owned the paint in the first half 18-8 and held Wake to 31% shooting from inside the arc. The Blue Devils still led 61-46 with 10:55 to go.

Then Steve Forbes went to his big lineup. “We changed the game when we put our big lineup in to defend and rebound,” the Deacons coach said. Did they ever. With a backcourt of 6’5 and 6’6, and a front court of 6’8, 6’10, and 7 feet, the Deacons used defense to create offense. “We finally got some stops in,” Forbes noted, “and we were pretty good in transition. It was the best way for us to score.”

The biggest of Forbes’ “Big Five,” Dallas Walton, ignited the rally with back to back three point shots. Jake LaRavia followed with another three. The Duke lead began to melt.

Jeremy Roach drove the lane and lofted a high arching runner over Wake’s supersized interior. But Duke would score just one more basket on its first shot attempt in the final eight minutes—that on Trevor Keels’ triple with 7:01 remaining and Duke clinging to a two-point lead.

Duke faced the bigger Deacons lineup on 20 offensive possessions. The Blue Devils did make seven free throws but went 2-11 on their initial field goal attempts and also committed five turnovers. They avoided defeat only because of four second-chance points – a tip in by Wendell Moore and the game winning follow slam by Mark Williams.

Duke Coach Mike Krzyzewski was not feeling well at halftime and stayed behind when the Blue Devils took the floor for the second half. Krzyzewski, ironically, missed both halves of Duke’s game at Wake Forest, staying home to nurse a virus like condition. Assistant Jon Scheyer coached Duke to a 76-64 victory in Winston-Salem, but could not prevent Wake’s dramatic comeback in the rematch.

Post-game, Scheyer spoke first of Duke’s inability to get stops. Indeed, Wake Forest scored on 7 of its first 8 trips down court after the lineup change. Wake converted on 12 of 20 possessions overall prior to Damari Monsanto’s desperation last second heave that nearly went in.

Still, Duke played some very good defense at times late in the game, forcing four turnovers, blocking a shot, nearly forcing a shot clock violation, and collecting rebounds after the few Wake misses.

What stood out were the Blue Devils troubles on the offensive end. A.J. Griffin put up a three early in the shot clock on one possession with about two minutes left. Keels tried a high risk alley oop pass on a fast break that went out of bounds. Moore was unable to pass out of a midcourt double team and was whistled for over and back. Scheyer noted: “I think we got a little panicked down the stretch, just making quick plays. When we have poise and break the defense down because we have so many weapons we can put on the floor, we’re a tough team to defend.”

Also problematic for Duke – its closest games are coming at home. Miami and Virginia both won tight games at Cameron, and then the Blue Devils barely got past Wake Forest. If not for Williams’ dramatic rebound slam, which survived a review for basket interference, the Devils might well have lost to the Deacs in overtime.

Duke has played better on the road, overwhelming both Notre Dame and UNC, while winning handily at Wake. Duke’s only road lost came at Florida State by one point in overtime.

The Seminoles have fallen on hard times as documented earlier. But Tuesday they snapped their long losing streak 81-80 over Clemson. This weekend Leonard Hamilton brings his wounded but still deep FSU squad to Durham.

Krzyzewski was feeling better Tuesday night after his rest, according to Scheyer. But will he be well enough to coach Saturday? Can Duke avoid yet one more close home game, where in spite of great crowd support, the Blue Devils seem to play their worst?

Duke remains the bell cow in this league – the only ACC team certain to get a high seed in next month’s NCAA Tournament. But while the league as a whole is lightly regarded this season nationally, the evidence is clear about the balance among the teams at the top. And the battle for the double bye in the ACC Tournament will likely continue until the first Saturday in March; the quest for NCAA bids, could run right up until Selection Sunday.