Lea: 5-Star players going pro will not ruin College Basketball
Posted May 26, 2021 8:36 p.m. EDT
I must admit. I've been apart of conversations with other people recently where the main subject is college basketball's eventual decline.
Our reasoning?
High School basketball stars opting to sign professional contracts instead of finishing their high school careers, and ultimately, giving up their college eligibility.
But after giving it some thought, I changed my mind. These players deciding to play for money isn't what will ruin college basketball, if it will be ruined at all. College basketball is not the victim in this case. It's more so about the players taking power back into their own hands.
It's estimated that the NCAA generated over $1 billion from the 2019 NCAA Tournament. On top of that, many Division 1 head men's basketball coaches are raking in millions per year themselves. We haven't even included money made from regular season ticket revenue and ticket sales.
Yeah we've gone over how much the NCAA is getting over on its student athletes, making billions while forcing the athletes to operate under the false guise of "amateurism". That's a piece of my argument - but the main reason why I feel like these athletes opting out of collegiate sports will not hurt college basketball is because the institution is too big. Plus, who knows if "Overtime Elite" or the NBA G-League will even catch on as mainstream must-watch TV.
So lets's start there. Overtime Elite is a newly formed professional basketball league, aimed at turning "elite" (see: 5-Star) players into professionals, allowing them to make money while developing for the NBA. The NBA G-League started a team called "Ignite" which invites high-level, recently graduated 5-star athletes to skip college and play within the NBA Developmental system for a season before becoming draft eligible. The bottom line: kids are getting paid. But that won't necessarily take away from the college model.
College sports have a built in fan base: Alumni and locals. Will NC State fans stop watching NC State basketball simply because other leagues are around? Or will people stop caring about the Battle of the Blues, North Carolina vs Duke, because former high school 5-stars are playing in a G-League game on ESPN+?
NCAA TV deals already puts college basketball a huge step ahead. ESPN and other networks are incentivized to tell the stories of these college rivalries in order to attract viewers so they can make enough money from advertisers. Right now, neither the G-League or Overtime Elite have TV deals in place that can stand up to the NCAA.
On top of that, fans may not necessarily care for a Tuesday night Overtime Elite game over an ACC rivalry game even if future superstars are playing in the former.
The "college basketball will be ruined" crowd must also realize that there is no shortage of basketball players clamoring to play college basketball. Only the 5-Stars and maybe some very special 4-Star players will be the ones poached for these leagues. More American and former players would get chances at Division 1 scholarships if the top tier players opt out of college altogether. If anything, these leagues may help to cut down on "one-and-done's" and you may see players stick around at schools longer if they don't enter the transfer portal (which is another topic for another day).
And who's to say all 5-Star high school players will decide to go pro and leave college behind? There's an argument to be made that the right college basketball coach could develop your game better than these new professional options. And that one year in college could be more valuable long term than making 7-figures in an upstart league right now.
Earlier I mentioned television deals, but social media will also be a factor. College programs' social media channels have basically become marketing agencies for players - just check how many followers Duke Men's Basketball has on Twitter and Instagram compared to some professional teams. Why wouldn't you want to play with them considering their social media alone?
Money aside, Overtime Elite and the NBA G-League have to be able to show that they'll be able to put enough eyes on these players to make their leagues long term viable options. Even with that, College Basketball will still continue to churn out future NBA Superstars who were late bloomers in high school. Remember when high school players could go straight to the NBA without going to college? LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett and the list goes on. However, Dwyane Wade, Stephen Curry, Carmelo Anthony and plenty more still went to college and still ended up becoming NBA Stars.
College basketball will be just fine.
