Showdown in Durham: NC State and Duke battle for ACC, NCAA seeding

By Bob Holliday, WRAL Sports contributor

Durham, N.C. — NC State and Duke have been two of the ACC’s hottest teams in February. NC State is 5-3, Duke 5-2. All of their collective losses have come on the road, except the one that inflicted the most pain—Clemson’s 25-point win over the Wolfpack on Saturday at PNC Arena.

Clemson had been one of the ACC’s coldest teams. Starting with a Jan. 31 loss to Boston College, the Tigers fell four times in six games, getting blown out at UNC and lowly Louisville.

But Clemson came to Raleigh-in Kevin Keatts’ words-“seeing a big basket.” The Tigers scored on eight of their first nine possessions to take a 21-9 lead in the first five minutes. The rout was on.

NC State, for its part, bore no resemblance to the defensive unit that forced 14 Wake Forest turnovers and held UNC to 35% from the floor.

Clemson shot 62% in the first half and scored eight points off turnovers. NC State, whose basketball lifestyle depends heavily on making steals and running the other way, recorded no points off turnovers until the second half when the game was long decided.

NC State had a golden opportunity to move ahead of Clemson, possibly securing a top four seed in the ACC Tournament and an extra day off in Greensboro. Now, the best the Pack can hope for is the fifth seed, and that will require a win Tuesday night at Duke, which also has its eyes on the fifth seed or higher.

On Jan. 4, NC State destroyed the Blue Devils 84-60 in Raleigh, but so much has changed for this team in the last seven weeks. Duke is now the ACC’s highest-ranked team in the NET at 25th, ahead of Virginia and Miami, which fell to 28 and 34 respectively after their losses this weekend. NC State also dropped in the NCAA rankings from 36 to 42.

Since the controversial loss at Virginia, Duke has improved steadily, beating Notre Dame, Syracuse, Louisville and Virginia Tech by an average of 15 points. Most recently, the Blue Devils made short work of a Hokie team that beat the Devils in January.

Saturday night in Cameron, Duke attacked the basket from the “get go” under the direction of Jeremy Roach and his sidekick Tyrese Proctor. Roach rang up 19 points and 10 assists, while Proctor popped in 10 and 5. Projected first round draft pick Dereck Lively II was a major beneficiary scoring 13 points, mostly on alley-oops and dunks. Freshman Mark Mitchell also had a monster night with 17 points and 8 rebounds.

The Devils held Virginia Tech to a mere 40% from the floor with a special focus on sharpshooter Hunter Cattoor. The 2022 ACC Tournament MVP was held to four shots and six points, mostly by Proctor.

The other big story: turnovers. Duke coughed up the basketball just nine times, after committing just six turnovers against Louisville. Remember, in conference play, Duke turns over the basketball more than any other team except Louisville. And that’s the first thing to watch for as we size up Tuesday’s showdown.

NC State vs. Duke round two

Tempo and Turnovers: Duke will not want to play NC State’s tempo. The Blue Devils average 67 possessions per game. That’s 301st in the nation. Notre Dame and Virginia are the only ACC teams that play more deliberately. Now, Duke has scored 80 or more three times this ACC season. But that’s from offensive efficiency not pace. NC State meanwhile averages 72 possessions per game. In the ACC, only UNC and Wake Forest play (slightly) faster. And tempo matters for the Wolfpack. There have been four conference games where State failed to score 70 points. Kevin Keatts’ team is 0-4 in those games. When scoring 70 or more, State is 12-3. Defensive pressure is NC State’s conduit to pushing the pace. The Wolfpack forces more than 12 turnovers per game, second only to Virginia. NC State averages more than 7 steals per game, also one of the ACC’s top two figures. Steals matter because they represent live ball turnovers, which give Jarkel Joiner and Terquavion Smith a chance to get out and run. These two guards and third guard Casey Morsell are more likely to find their shooting rhythm in transition than in a purely half court game. So, this is where Duke’s penchant for turnovers comes into focus. If the Blue Devils hit their average of 12.67 turnovers per game in ACC competition, that gives NC State a chance-especially since the Wolfpack does not typically turn the ball over. But if Duke can limit can limit turnovers to 10 or fewer, it will be difficult for NC State to win.

Perimeter Shooting: Three-point shooting and defending the arc are as much a part of Kevin Keatts’ foundational philosophy as winning the turnover battle. Yet, Duke may have a small advantage here. The Blue Devils started the season shooting poorly from long distance, but thanks to improved ball movement are now shooting 35% from three—seventh in ACC-only games. NC State has attempted 70 more three pointers than Duke, but the Pack ranks just 11th in the league, hitting less than 34%. In terms of defending the arc, NC State is third and Duke fifth, so not much difference there. The shooting advantage I think will depend on tempo. NC State hit 8-20 in an up and down the court game against Wake Forest. But against defensive-minded Virginia, State made just 8-27. Duke meanwhile has become quite proficient at hitting the three ball in a half court setting. The Blue Devils have five or six players shooting 34% plus from beyond the arc. So, unless NC State can really get out with hands in the face on all these guys, or really interfere with the movement and sharp passing that sets up these shots, Duke may win the three-point battle.

Paint Points: Given that Terquavion Smith and Jarkel Joiner have been shall we say, streaky, shooting jumpers outside and inside the arc, DJ Burns has become a critical asset to the NC State offense. Burns averages 16 points per game but lately has really asserted himself on the low block, scoring 18 vs. UNC, 21 against Wake Forest, and 24 in the loss to Clemson. The 275-pound Burns has great footwork and shoots jumpers, hooks and jump hooks with either hand; and, of course, he can physically push his way to the basket. But Tuesday night the 6’9 Burns goes up against the 7’ 1” Dereck Lively, who averages 2.5 blocks per game in ACC play. Sometimes, he gets more than that. Lively blocked three shots Saturday against Virginia Tech and who could forget his eight-block performance against UNC, a one man block party that led to a real party after the Devils’ 63-57 win? Also, Duke has 7’ Kyle Filipowski and rugged Ryan Young, ready to take their turn guarding Burns, especially if Lively gets into foul trouble. And who could blame Duke for fouling Burns? He only shoots 61% from the line. Going the other way, State will need a big night defensively from Greg Gantt and Ernest Ross. They’ll likely be charged with guarding Filipowski, who can score from inside and outside. Burns presumably goes against Lively. The Duke big man does not create his own shot at this point, but if the Devils’ perimeter players get penetration, their lobs to Lively are lethal. Above all, when Duke misses, NC State must box out. The Blue Devils rebound 34% of their shots that don’t go in.

Intangibles:

*How will State handle Duke’s big lineup? This after all, is the Blue Devils starting lineup and it creates at least one awkward matchup. 6’8” Mark Mitchell just had a breakout game. But in Kevin Keatts’ standard starting five Mitchell would pretty much have to be guarded by 6’3 Casey Morsell or 6’4” Terquavion Smith.

*Will Jack Clark play? Clark took a nasty fall at the end of the Wake Forest game and still had pain Saturday so he did not go against Clemson. But if the 6’8” Clark feels up to giving Keatts 10-15 minutes in Durham, that could give the Wolfpack a boost at both ends of the floor.

*Fouls: NC State has committed 36 more fouls this season than its opponents. Sending Duke to the line is not recommended. The Blue Devils hit 76% of their free throws in league play. By contrast, NC State shoots only 71% in conference games. Only Virginia and Georgia Tech are worse.

*Motivating factors: Duke can still finish in the top four of the league and secure a double bye with wins over NC State and UNC plus Clemson losses to Virginia and Notre Dame. Except for the pandemic-plagued season of 2021, the Big Four has always-going all the way back to 1954-placed at least one (often more) team in the top four of the Atlantic Coast Conference standings. Duke is the only Big Four team in position to keep this amazing streak alive. NC State missed its chance to pass Clemson and move into the top four. The Pack still has plenty to play for, however. A win at Duke (NET #25) would give this team another Quad I win (currently 2-5) and probably move State back inside the top 40 of the NET. Plus, this is the Wolfpack’s last regular season game. It is much better to pick up a school record 13th ACC win and go to Greensboro with the momentum of a victory, than take a two-game losing streak to the ACC Tournament. The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will be watching.