The ACC's Big Four: How they earned the double bye

By Bob Holliday, WRALSportsFan contributor

So we’ve been watching two days of TV coverage from Brooklyn, and Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, and Duke have yet to play. What makes them so special? Let’s break it down ahead of Thursday’s quarter-finals, when the league’s “Big Four” will finally play an ACC Tournament game against the survivors from the “other eleven.”

I want to note that all ACC stats that I’m using are strictly from conference games. Since ACC teams have played only other ACC teams for the past nine weeks, and since they’ll be playing only ACC teams this week, it makes no sense to me to use stats from November and December non-conference games. ACC only stats are the most current indicators of how teams are playing, so that’s what you’ll find here.

No. 4 Miami

The Hurricanes finished ACC play 14-6. This is a very quick team, maybe the quickest defensively that I have seen. Miami leads the ACC in steals, getting almost 10 per game. Charlie Moore, Kam McGusty, and Jordan Miller rank 1,2,3 individually in steals and don’t dare sleep on Isaiah Wong.

Miami surged to the top of the league back in January with a stunning rally at nationally ranked Duke, followed soon after by a 28 point blowout of UNC. The Hurricanes lost by four to the league’s #2 seed, Notre Dame, but swept #5 Wake Forest. So the Canes are 4-1 against the ACC’s top five and no other team in the league can say that.

Miami did not fare well out of conference, losing to Central Florida, Dayton, and by 32 points to Alabama, currently #28 in the NET rankings. The Canes did win at Penn State, but certainly contributed to perceptions that the ACC is down this year.

Miami is not big. 6’10 Sam Waardenburg is the Canes’ tallest starter and the New Zealander does some of his best work on offense out near the three point line (see UNC blowout). Deng Gak and Rodney Miller, seven footers both, get a collective 10 minutes per game. Still, the Hurricanes rank near the bottom of the league in blocked shots. Also opponents shoot 54% from two point territory against this club.

However, because of defensive pressure, turnovers loom large in games against the Canes, about 14 per game. Jim Larranaga’s team also ranks among the best in the league in ball security, so Miami leads the league in turnover margin at +5.11 per game. In sum, teams often turn it over against Miami, and that can lead to transition points. On the other hand, if you can get a shot off against the Canes, the odds are you will make it or get the rebound. Teams shoot almost 48% against Miami, and the Canes rebound only 68% of their opponent misses, so yeah, you can do the math.

Miami also struggles on the offensive glass, rebounding only 22% of its missed shots, and yet, Jordan Miller got huge offensive rebounds against Duke and Syracuse that helped win those two games.

The Hurricanes shoot the basketball. They hits 49% overall and 38% from three. McGusty leads scoring at 16.6 points per game, followed by Wong at 15.3. Moore averages 13. McGusty made the All-ACC first team, with Wong named to the third team. Moore made the league’s All Defensive team. So this team has talent.

Collectively though, Miami should not feel too comfortable with its NCAA prospects. Although ESPN’s Joe Lunardi projects the Canes as a 10 seed in the Tournament, Miami ranks a mere 59th in the NET. Besides the non-conference mishaps, the Canes lost twice to Florida State (albeit when the Seminoles had a healthy roster), as well as to Virginia and Virginia Tech. Miami is 4-1 in Quad I games but just 5-5 in Quad II, and 9-3 in Quad III. And the Canes will likely face Wake Forest, also a Lunardi 10 seed. The Deacons are #39 in the NET but a third loss to Miami could really push them back toward the bubble. And Miami is also not bubble proof.

No. 3 North Carolina

UNC finished the regular season 23-8 with a 15-5 record in the ACC. The Tar Heels tied for second place but lost the tiebreaker to Notre Dame, thanks to a long ago 78-73 loss in South Bend.

Carolina’s Saturday night win at Duke should assure this team of an NCAA berth. UNC vaulted to 33 in the NET rankings, just two spots behind Michigan, a team the Tar Heels throttled 72-51 back in early December.

Michigan, with a good showing in the Big Ten Tournament could move back into the top 30 of the NET, which would give UNC a much needed third Quad I win. Joe Lunardi projects UNC as a #8 seed. Still, the Tar Heels could lose ground unless they win an ACC Tournament game or two. And likely first round opponent Virginia could be a very tough out.

The Cavaliers believe they are an NCAA Tournament team—Duke Coach Mike Krzyzewski said as much after the Blue Devils’ narrow escape in Charlottesville in late February. Virginia has two wins over Miami, plus a victory at Duke.

Probably Virginia’s worst ACC showing came in Chapel Hill on a very early January day. Carolina whipped the Cavaliers 74-58, hitting 11 of 25 shots from beyond the arc. UNC’s three point proficiency, and especially that of stretch four Brady Manek, prevented the Cavs from “packing in” their pack line defense against Armando Bacot. Result? Bacot had a field day, scoring 29 points.

The now desperate Virginia team will be a much tougher opponent the second time around as the Wahoos look to make a deep tournament run in Brooklyn. And that’s what will be required to make the NCAA’s, as currently the Cavs are listed in the second four out. Bear that in mind if Virginia plays UNC. Tony Bennett’s team must at least reach the ACC Championship or make plans to play in the NIT.

By the numbers, UNC ranks as one of the ACC’s best offenses. The Tar Heels rank first in scoring offense averaging 79 points per game plus, and first in free throw shooting at 79%. UNC is among the ACC’s best three point shooting teams, a top three assist team, and #2 in offensive rebound percentage.

UNC’s improved defense played a big part in the Tar Heels’ late season success. The Tar Heels rank fourth in blocked shots, and fifth in field goal defense, holding opponents to 43% from the field. When opponents miss shots, UNC clears the boards 79% of the time, tops in the league.

Bacot led the ACC in rebounding by a wide margin, pulling down more than 14 boards per game in conference play. He also ranks fourth in scoring.

Guard Caleb Love, whose penchant for late game heroics nearly landed him a spot on the All ACC third team, ranks among the conference leaders in assists and free throw shooting.

Stopper Leaky Black made the league’s All Defensive team.

UNC comes to Brooklyn riding a five game win streak. But we’re just a couple of weeks removed from the no show against Pittsburgh. And it’s quite possible the psychology for this Carolina team has changed now, after the huge, NCAA assuring win against Duke. This team has plenty of talent but will it have the mental and physical toughness to win a quarter-final game against a more desperate team?

No. 2 Notre Dame

The Irish looked like anything but an NCAA team in November and early December. Notre Dame played a difficult early schedule, losing to St. Mary’s, Texas A&M, and Illinois. After the team dropped its ACC opener at Boston College by 16 points, Notre Dame’s record stood at 4-4. Coach Mike Brey made some schematic changes in the Irish offense. Importantly, the team’s veterans accepted freshman star Blake Wesley as their quarterback. Notre Dame then pulled off the season’s signature win, upsetting Kentucky.

Notre Dame’s 15-5 ACC campaign is characterized by a number of close wins. The first three in ACC play came against Pitt by one, UNC by five, and then Georgia Tech by four in overtime. Not surprisingly, Notre Dame ranks fifth in the ACC in scoring margin, behind Duke, Wake Forest, UNC, and Miami, winning games by a mere 4.74 points on average.

Still, Notre Dame has won the games it was supposed to win. Other than a home loss to Duke, all of the defeats have come on the road: At Boston College, at Virginia Tech, at Wake Forest, and at Florida State.

Commitment to defense has certainly shaped Notre Dame’s big season. The Irish are not known for blocking shots or forcing turnovers but they defend shooters, especially three point shooters. Notre Dame is fourth in field goal defense during ACC games, allowing teams to shoot just 43%. The Irish limit their opponents to just 30% beyond the arc.

Additionally, Notre Dame plays good transition defense and rarely loses control of its preferred tempo. No ACC team has scored more than 79 points against Notre Dame in a 40 minute game.

Offensively, Notre Dame leads the ACC in three point shooting, hitting 39%. Wesley and Prentice Hubb both excel at finding open shooters—especially Dane Goodwin and Nate Laszewski. And of course, Wesley and Hubb can shoot the three as well. Underrated big man Paul Atkinson gives this team a consistent post presence. Atkinson is not flashy but he averages 12.9 points per game, behind Wesley’s 15.5 and Goodwin’s 13.

Like all Mike Brey teams, this Notre Dame squad takes care of the basketball. The Irish turn the ball over just 9.47 times per game, one of the top three marks in league play.

All that said Notre Dame, like Miami, could use an ACC Tournament win or two to solidify its NCAA standing. The Irish are 50th in the NET and Joe Lunardi projects them as a 10 seed, just one spot removed from the NCAA Tournament bubble.

No. 1 Duke

Great angst took hold in Durham during the closing moments of Duke’s unexpected loss to UNC. But the defeat, while spoiling Mike Krzyzewski’s final curtain call at Cameron, did not really impact the Blue Devils’ NCAA standing. Duke remains 9th in the NET rankings and still projects as a two seed.

More than any other ACC team, Duke played really well in the non-conference season. The Blue Devils went 10-1 outside the ACC, with wins over Gonzaga and Kentucky, #1 and #4 in the NET. Duke’s only non conference loss came at Ohio State when the Devils lost a double digit lead in the second half. Not a great outcome, but the Buckeyes still rank #22 in the NET.

Duke’s troubles, such as they are, have come in the much maligned Atlantic Coast Conference. The Blue Devils dropped games to Miami, Florida State, Virginia, and UNC, with three of the losses coming at home. Curiously, Duke is 5-1 in Quad I games but only 5-3 in Quad II competition. The ACC did that-no one else. So maybe this league is better than some think?

Krzyzewski made it clear Saturday night that he and his staff would get this team prepared for games in Brooklyn. Thursday could bring a rematch with Syracuse, which Duke has beaten easily twice this season, but more likely a third game against Florida State, rejuvenated with the return of Anthony Polite. Three of the four halves Duke has played against Leonard Hamilton’s team have been quite competitive.

But note this-Duke plays really well after suffering a loss. The Blue Devils are 4-0 in first games after a loss this season and 4-0 in the second games after a loss. Duke is 3-1 in third games after a loss, all of which suggests this team learned its lessons well in practices after those defeats. How will the Devils respond after loss #5? The history points to Blue Devil wins in the aftermath of the Carolina defeat and quite possibly three wins.

Duke won the ACC’s regular season for the first time since 2010, back when assistant coach Jon Scheyer was a player. The Blue Devils, as one might expect, were well represented in All ACC honors, with Paolo Banchero selected to the first team, Wendell Moore picked on the second team, and Mark Williams named to the third team. Banchero was chosen Freshman of the Year, and Williams was voted Defensive Player of the Year. Moore joined Williams on the ACC’s All Defensive Team.

Headed into tournament play, Duke leads in most defensive categories: Field goal defensive percentage, three point percentage and blocked shots.

Duke is also highly rated on offense, leading the ACC in assists and offensive rebounding percentage, while ranking among the top three in scoring offense.

Individually, Banchero is fifth in scoring and second in rebounding. Williams leads the league in field goal percentage and blocked shots. Moore, Banchero, and Jeremy Roach all rank among the ACC’s top 15 in assists, with Roach third in assist to turnover ratio.

So Duke clearly has the personnel to win it all in Brooklyn. Knowing how much Krzyzewski loves the ACC Tournament, the Blue Devils will no doubt want to make that happen, to send the Hall of Fame coach out with championships in both the regular season and the tournament, a double that is becoming more and more rare these days. But can the Blue Devils tune out the noise and the hype surrounding Krzyzewski’s last ACC games and just play?

The fun starts Thursday at noon.