Welter: Bryce Young is the future, but he's paying for the Panthers sins of the past
Posted September 12, 2023 12:13 p.m. EDT
Updated September 14, 2023 7:30 a.m. EDT
Bryce Young lost his debut, which is not a big deal. History tells us it's one of the most predictable things in sports.
Since 2002, David Carr is the only quarterback taken No. 1 overall to win his first start. So, we can just add Young to a list that includes names like Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Joe Burrow and Andrew Luck. Of course, the difference for Young is he isn't stepping into the worst team in the league. He's on a Panthers roster that nearly made the playoffs last year despite playing Baker Mayfield, P.J. Walker, and Sam Darnold at quarterback. This is a franchise that traded up from No. 9 to get him and I'd argue that's the problem.
Panthers owner David Tepper made his billions as a hedge fund manager. I'm hardly a financial writer, but to put it simply a lot of his success came from profiting off distressed assets.
On draft night after the Panthers selected Young, Tepper was up in the press box as his new head coach Frank Reich and general manager Scott Fitterer addressed the media. Tepper answered some questions impromptu as well. When talking about the move up from No. 9 to No. 1 Tepper said with a smile, "I don't know if you know this, but I know something about stats and numbers in my head."
Tepper might know numbers, but so far, he's struggled with people. Tepper has been doubling and tripling down on the quarterback position and has underestimated the human cost along the way.
Young looked competent in his debut Sunday versus the Atlanta Falcons. Other than two interceptions to safety Jessie Bates, the most glaring deficiency were the lack of explosive plays. Carolina didn't have a pass play of more than 14 yards in the game.
"Our guys have plenty of speed," Reich said Monday when asked about other receivers around the NFL. "I look at the way we run, our receivers times we'll find ways to make plays down the field."
If you go back to some of Tepper's comments on draft night, Carolina's lack of playmakers is actually by design.
"You want to win Super Bowls and there's no sure thing here, but it's a probability sort of and we thought [Bryce Young] had the best probability of winning Super Bowls," Tepper said. "The way he throws the ball, the way he's a point guard, how you can use the different players on the field, how you might not have to have as many elite receivers because he's the point guard right? He distributes the ball to receivers with routes, so you can save some money there, save some money in other places and put that money into the defensive side of the ball."
Speaking of the defensive side of the ball, Brian Burns contract extension ... what are you waiting for? You talk about playmakers, he's literally your only one. I said that on Twitter (excuse me X) and got some push back from Panthers fans telling me I was wrong, but none of them proved it. Quibbling over Burns money is like hemming and hawing over how much a water bottle costs at the airport after a weekend in Las Vegas. You've been gambling and spending freely and now you're going to get frugal??? This is something you actually need!
In free agency, the Panthers attempted to put some weapons around Young. There just weren't many options available in the bargain bin. DJ Chark (who is hurt and has been hurt most of his career), Hayden Hurst, Miles Sanders, Adam Thielen ... all fine players, but nobody that's going to tilt the field.
"You've got a guy like Tyreek Hill who has 200 yards, he's just different," Reich said Monday. "No team has speed like that. He's in a different category."
There's only one Hill, but you did have D.J. Moore who you had to give up in the Bears trade to get Young. Then there's all the draft capital the Panthers have spent chasing quarterbacks. Ironically now they have one and don't have any help.
Moving draft picks is fine, but it means you really have to hit the ones you've got. Since taking Burns 16th overall in 2019, the Panthers don't have a single player who has really popped. Ikem Ekwonu, Brady Christensen, Jeremy Chinn and Derrick Brown are all solid starters, but Burns is their only Pro Bowler. Jaycee Horn is hurt again and inching dangerously close to bust. It's always easy to play the hindsight game in the draft, but Micah Parsons went four picks after Horn in the 2021 draft. In 2020, they took Brown seventh, every team in the league wishes they got Justin Jefferson before the Minnesota Vikings selected him with the 22nd pick.
Those are the picks they made, here's all the ones they didn't. In 2021, they gave up a second, fourth, and sixth round pick for "distressed asset" Sam Darnold. In September of that year, they tried to buy low again trading a third-round pick for Jacksonville Jaguars cornerback CJ Henderson. During the 2022 draft, they gave up a fourth-round pick to move up and draft quarterback Matt Corral in the third round. Those three moves have netted virtually no return. The Christian McCaffrey trade helped re-stock the fridge, but they emptied it again in the move up to No. 1 for Young. For the rights to the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL draft Chicago acquired:
- D.J. Moore (WR)
- 2024 1st round pick
- 2025 2nd round pick
- 2023 1st round pick (#9 )
- 2023 2nd round pick (#61)
The Panthers entered this season with hopes of winning the NFC South. It's a weak division, so I think they still could, but after watching them Sunday, I think it's more likely they finish last than first. It's like they made a deal with the devil. They got their quarterback, but don't have the draft picks to give him what he needs. A last place finish in the NFC South would be fine if you knew you could get someone like Marvin Harrison Jr. from Ohio State. Now, you'll just be taking your chances on the Jonathan Mingo's of the world in the second and third rounds.
It's a testament to the Panthers front office that they are as competitive as they are even with all of these misses, but as we see every week in the NFL, the margins between teams are razor thin. Yes, you need a quarterback, and yes, the great ones can elevate those around them to Tepper's point. But we all saw what Patrick Mahomes looked like without Travis Kelce against the Detroit Lions. Every quarterback needs help, especially a rookie. Bryce Young is the future of this franchise, but he's going to pay for the sins of its past.
