Welter: I'm not mad, Carolina, just disappointed

By Pat Welter

"I'm not mad. I'm just disappointed."

That's a quote we probably all hear from our parents at least once in our lives. When you become a parent, you eventually say it yourself. My kids are five and two years old, so it's more, "Why did you make such a big mess?" these days. When it comes to the North Carolina Tar Heels' 2022-23 season, I find myself saying both.

Carolina's run to the national championship game in the 2021-22 season is one of the most special things I've ever witnessed in sports. I'm a neutral party when it comes to the colleges in the state of North Carolina, but I couldn't help but get wrapped up in what I was seeing.

They were Cinderella, the stuff fairy tales and movie scripts are made of: a team written off mid-season that came together at the right time and delivered a magical run to the NCAA final.  They ended up losing to Kansas by three points in the national championship game despite holding a fifteen point halftime lead, but it almost didn't matter.  They had spoiled Mike Krzyzewski's final game at Cameron Indoor Stadium and sent him into retirement at the Final Four. Carolina far exceeded anyone's wildest expectations last season, and were treated like heroes.

This year, we are seeing what happens when dangerously high expectations are not met.

Carolina returned four of five starters and were crowned preseason No. 1. In a college basketball landscape filled with transfers and one-and-dones, it seemed reasonable to assume Carolina's continuity and experience would give them a significant edge. The preseason praise was palpable. It was even monetized in the form of NIL. Armando Bacot, Caleb Love, R.J. Davis and Leaky Black bypassed the chance to move on to NBA or international basketball careers for a shot at accomplishing something great. Being some of the most marketable faces in a mostly starless college basketball canvas didn't hurt. But like some sort of Shakespearean tragedy, Carolina was almost doomed from the start.

They began the year with uninspiring wins versus mid-majors and were soon humbled by an 0-3 showing at the Phil Knight Invitational. One of those losses was in four overtimes to now-No. 1 Alabama, but a loss nonetheless. Failing to execute in the game's final minutes has become a theme of the season, which is the exact opposite of what got them to the Final Four a year ago.

“At the end of the day, Alabama made one more play than we did,” North Carolina coach Hubert Davis said after the Alabama game. “I walked in the locker room and a number of the guys had their head down, and I told them to pick their head up. I’m just as disappointed (as the players) in terms of the final outcome, but I couldn’t be any more proud about the way they competed.”

Davis had plenty of time and reason to be optimistic then. That isn't the case now. Carolina doesn't have a Quad 1 win or a win versus a currently ranked team all season. They have lost five of their last six games and are in legitimate danger of being the first preseason No. 1 team to miss the NCAA Tournament.  During Saturday's loss to rival NC State, the Wolfpack student section started chanting, "N-I-T! N-I-T!" Davis disagreed with reporters' assertions that Carolina is "running out of time" and that "it isn't working."

“Sometimes, it doesn’t come when you want it, where you want it, how you want it and the manner in which you want it at the time that you want it,” Davis said after the NC State loss. “That’s life. So, what the key is, is to understand and to continue to get back up and to continue to fight. That’s what Carolina’s always been about. That’s what this team has always been about, and it’s not even a choice. That’s the only direction that you can go.”

There was a point this season when Carolina's schedule and results almost mirrored the 2021-22 season. There was even an embarrassing loss at Wake Forest. Last year, that loss was singled out as a turning point.  After double-digit late January losses to Miami and Wake Forest, Carolina ended the regular season on a 12-3 stretch.  Wins versus Syracuse and Duke gave them the confidence they needed to excel into March.  This season's Wake Forest loss looks like it'll be remembered as the point when everything completely unraveled.

“I understand that when speaking to the team, whether in the locker room or wherever, I’m not just speaking to them. In the locker room, there’s more voices in the locker room," Davis said after this year's Wake Forest loss. "Every time that I speak to the team, I’m speaking to 30 to 40 voices there, not just 18. The voices of the families, the voices of friends, the voices of phones, the voices of agents, the voices of workout guys,” Davis said.

Davis also admitted that there were chemistry issues with the team after that game. After the players spent forty-five minutes in the locker room, Armando Bacot revealed that he challenged anyone who didn't want to be there to quit.

“I just told everybody, I’m not going to quit,” Bacot said. “If you want to be here, be here on Thursday. If not, just go home.”

The soul searching after Wake Forest led to a players-only meeting called by R.J. Davis. The team followed up with a 91-71 win over Clemson, the closest the team had looked to their Final Four form all season. However, the good vibes dissipated quickly with Quad 1 strikeouts versus Miami and NC State, which brings us up to date. Four games left: at Notre Dame, vs. No. 6 Virginia, at Florida State and vs. Duke. They basically have to win all four or win the ACC Tournament to go dancing in March. Carolina has given us no reason to believe they are capable of that this season. If you do, it's basically blind faith.

“It says in I think Hebrews 11:1,” Davis said Sunday. “Faith is being sure of what you hope for and certain of what you don’t see. That’s what I have in this team. I have a faith that I’m being sure of what I hope for, and (I’m) certain of what I don’t see.”

Davis' continued faith in the 2021-22 team looked prophetic when he was answering questions at the Final Four. I understand it's in his interest to be optimistic now, but to everyone watching, it's becoming delusional.

There are a lot of reasons why things haven't gone according to plan for the Tar Heels. Replacing Brady Manek with Pete Nance hasn't worked. Nance is averaging 9.6 points per game this season and is shooting 29.3 percent from three. His average dipping below single digits is indicative of how poorly he has shot over the last month.  In February, Nance has hit two three pointers.  Yes, two three point shots total.  As a team, Carolina is shooting 30.7 percent from three, 325th in the nation! UNC's inability to spread the floor is allowing defenses to collapse on Armando Bacot and clog the paint. Combine Nance's struggles with Leaky Black's offensive deficiencies, and the Carolina offense breaks down.

With four of last years' five starters back, Hubert Davis had a chance to push the team over the top in the transfer portal. Missing on Nance has been a massive setback. Manek averaged 15.1 points per game last season, but he elevated his game to another level late last February and March. Carolina isn't in the Sweet 16 without 28 and 26-point performances from Manek versus Marquette and Baylor.

Besides missing in the portal, Hubert Davis' other failure is player development. His returning starters haven't exactly taken a step forward this season, but the real issue is the bench. There isn't a single bench player averaging even five points per game. Duke, by comparison, has three.  Davis likes to say you never know where or when your opportunity will come, so it's up to you to be ready.  That's the kind of thing that sounds great on a poster, but in reality, it's easier said than done.  Outside of Puff Johnson, Carolina doesn't have a single reliable bench option.  Dontrez Styles, who helped them beat Baylor last season, is a complete afterthought. D'Marco Dunn, Seth Trimble, Jalen Washington and Tyler Nickel have all shown flashes, but their minutes are so sporadic none of them looks very confident when they are in.

If we are saying the quiet part out loud, I think it's more than okay to question Hubert Davis' performance as head coach.

Making the national championship in his first season earned him considerable benefit of the doubt, but that credit is dwindling with every loss and postgame platitude. Carolina's Final Four run made Davis look like a master motivator who knew how to push all the right buttons, but maybe they were just a Cinderella who got hot.  They shot the lights out versus Marquette, nearly blew a 25-point lead to Baylor, got incredible Caleb Love performances versus UCLA and Duke, sent St. Peter's home and ran out of gas in the title game versus Kansas.  Sometimes the six-leg parlays hit, but it doesn't mean you should quit your day job and become a pro gambler in Las Vegas.

There's a reason people say the hardest thing to handle in life is success. Four starters back from a national championship runner-up is a gift and a curse that Davis has had to navigate. I am by no means calling for Davis' job, just pointing out that criticism and closer examination are warranted. Like I said to start: I'm not mad. I'm almost sad for Carolina.  Bacot, Love, Davis and Black should be remembered as Tar Heel greats, not failures. If you're a Tar Heel fan, Love's three-pointer over Mark Williams in the Final Four is the kind of thing you'll talk about the rest of your life. Hubert Davis is technically correct. There is still time to turn this around, but I'd temper those expectations, or you'll probably end up disappointed.