Will the ACC's greatness help or hurt NC State?

By Bob Holliday, WRALSportsFan contributor

Charlotte, N.C. — Many pundits seem to agree the Atlantic Coast Conference is in a class by itself this season. Yet some in this same group question the NCAA credentials of NC State. Dick Vitale recently used the word “mediocrity” in describing the resume of NC State (and Clemson). It is true NC State went 1-8 against Quadrant I opponents. But those teams, all from the ACC, rank 1,3,7,11,15, and 21 in the latest NET rankings. I would add that if you combine Quadrant I and Quadrant II, NC State has a combined record of 9-9.

Coach Kevin Keatts believes his team will make the NCAA field. ”If the selection crew, if they value what they've said all year long, then there shouldn't be any issues with us,” Keatts said following the Pack’s ACC Tournament loss to Virginia. “We've always talked about quad 1 and quad 2 wins, where we just played the No. 1 NET team in the country. So I like our guys' chances. If they value what they have talked about, it shouldn't be an issue at all.”

Everyone acknowledges the ACC’s power at the very top. Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski will tell you the gap between the top teams and those in the middle is small. “We have, I think, four 25-game winning programs, and Virginia Tech was just below,” Krzyzewski says. And in the conference 16-2, 16-2, 14-4, 13-5, and it made it look like the league may not have been as good, but that's wrong.” He adds,”if we're playing at Virginia, at Louisville, play State and Carolina, not many teams do that, and you can talk about other conferences, but it's grueling. It's grueling in our conference, and I think it makes us all better, but we should get rewarded for that.”

Florida State came up short, 73-63, against Duke in the ACC Championship game, but Coach Leonard Hamilton feels pretty good about his team’s resume: “We can boast that we beat the ACC regular season champs, the Big Ten regular season champs and the SEC season champs,” Hamilton says. And that’s the ACC’s fourth place team.

NC State will score no points with the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee on its strength of schedule. But, outside the “murderer’s row” of opponents in the ACC, in Power Five non-conference matchups, NC State fared pretty well. The Pack defeated Auburn, #18 in the NET. State also whipped Penn State, #49, and Vanderbilt, which after a promising start to the season suffered an abysmal winter and fell to #154. The Wolfpack narrowly lost on the road to #17 Wisconsin.

So here’s the question: How much weight will the committee give NC State’s Power Five wins outside the ACC? Will State’s performance in conference contests-beat Syracuse, a probable NCAA team, while suffering bad losses to #124 Georgia Tech and #183 Wake Forest-work for the Wolfpack or against it? NC State has 22 wins and a 9-9 record in a very difficult conference. Most years that is good enough to make the NCAA Tournament.

Each NCAA Selection Committee develops its own set of values of course, but for the past decade we have seen pretty good consistency in how those selection bodies used their evaluating tools, strength of schedule and the Ratings Percentage Index, RPI. But this season, the NCAA has added a new organizational tool, officially the NCAA Evaluation Tool, or NET. There is no track record for just how this committee will use the new measurement.

“This is the first year that the selection committee has put value on the NET,” Keatts notes.” I don't think anybody in this room, I don't think anybody in the country knows what that means. If you take half of the people they're going to say certain teams should be in, and others, certain teams shouldn't be in. But I feel good about us.”

Keatts seems to have some understanding of what the committee has said it will value. His coaching counterpart Roy Williams pays no attention to all the NCAA talk.”The bottom line is that you play and try to do the best you can today,” Williams says. “I have no idea, I don't even know what the hell NET means, Okay. So let's be honest, I'm trying to coach my team.”

Hamilton, like everyone else, can’t wait for 6pm Sunday to get here. There are so many unknowns. “We have the new evaluation formula that none of us really know exactly how that works,” Hamilton says. “We're having conversation because this is March Madness and everyone's making their predictions like they know exactly what's going on, but none of us will be in the room, and I'm still a little confused about the quad system and how they're going to evaluate it.”

Few cases underscore the unknown of the NCAA’s new selection process better than Syracuse. Most experts seem to think Jim Boeheim’s bunch will get an NCAA bid with a 10-8 ACC record and a victory over #3 Duke. Yet the Orange ranks just #43 in the NET, behind NC State #34 and Clemson #35.

Everyone has opinions. Bracketologist Joe Lunardi ​now projects NC State as the first team out of the NCAA Tournament, as a result of Oregon winning PAC 12.  Sports Illustrated projects the Pack will squeeze its way into the tournament by the narrowest of margins.

I have seen one somewhat optimistic projection that NC State will get in as a number nine seed, meaning the Pack would avoid a play in game. ACC play by play announcer Tim Brando gives thumbs up to NC State (and Clemson). However, I also spoke with analyst Jay Bilas, and he does not believe NC State gets in. CBS studio analyst Seth Davis tweeted after the Pack nipped Clemson Wednesday that NC State still needed to win TWO more games. Obviously that didn’t happen. But Keatts’ club does get the endorsement of the man coaching the NET’s #1 team. “This league is good,” Virginia’s Tony Bennett said after defeating NC State Thursday. Of the Wolfpack, Bennett said ”they're talented. They're athletic. They pretty much play four guards all the time, whether it's Dorn at the 4 or whoever else they put in. Again, I think they're a heck of a team. Coach Keatts does a great job, and I'm not on the selection committee, but I believe the way this league is and how they played, I would hope that they're in.”

Then there is the matter of seeding the 68 team field. Jay Bilas thinks that’s the most important thing. “I hope the committee doesn’t spend so much time worrying about who gets in that they don’t get the seeding right,” he told me. Could the ACC get three number one seeds I asked? “They should,” Bilas replied, but added “it probably won’t happen.” Media consensus today is that Virginia and Duke get number one seeds. UNC, after Friday’s breathtaking one point loss to Duke, did seem likely to get a number two seed, but Kentucky’s loss to Tennessee gives the committee a clear path to making UNC a number one as well. Only one conference, the Big East in 2009, has ever received three number one seeds. Could ACC 2019 become the second?

To my way of thinking, the discussion should center on the quality of the league. The opinion of Duke Coach Mike Krzyzewski, whose Blue Devils have played potential number one seeds Kentucky and Gonzaga, should matter here:

“I would be surprised if we don't have three No. 1 seeds,” Krzyzewski allows.”For these three teams especially to do so well, it's remarkable. And I hope that we're all rewarded -- I shouldn't say rewarded. I hope we get the due that we should get for that level of achievement and because the league has achieved a lot.”

Notably, Duke, UNC, and Virginia all began the season highly ranked, and never wavered. “I think for the year, the race that was run, our three programs have been right there,” the Duke coach points out. “We weren't in the background moving up or whatever, we were right there, all three programs. And we're finishing that way. I think these three programs deserve that.”.

Will the ACC get eight bids, nine bids (NC State and Clemson) or just seven bids? Unfortunately for bubble teams, their own body of work is not the only factor here. Automatic bids go to the champion in each conference. When a team with a strong NCAA resume loses in its conference tournament to a team that would not have qualified-like Gonzaga falling to St. Mary’s-that takes away a bid from teams like NC State and Clemson.

ESPN’s Bill Walton said during Oregon’s upset of Arizona State late Friday night – a game that could be costly to bubble teams – that he thinks the NCAA should do away with automatic bids and just pick the best teams. That would certainly help teams in NC State’s position, but politically that will never happen.

So brace yourselves basketball fans. It’s still a few hours until pairings are announced. In the meantime, six more conferences, the AAC, A-10, Big Ten, SEC, Ivy, and Sun Belt, all have conference championship games to play. NC State fans, in these games, upsets are NOT your friends. Pull for the favorites.