2024 NCAA Tournament: How to win your March Madness bracket
Posted March 18, 2024 7:16 p.m. EDT
Updated March 19, 2024 11:49 a.m. EDT
March Madness is here, and with it comes the challenge of trying to fill out the perfect bracket.
There has NEVER been a verifiably perfect bracket in the history of the NCAA tournament. The odds of filling out a perfect bracket are about one in 9.2 quintillion.
But there are some strategies that will make you look smart, even if you haven't watched a game all year.
High seeds usually win
Since the NCAA Tournament expended to 64 teams in 1985, No. 1 seeds have accounted for 24 out of 38 champions. No. 2 seeds have won five championships and No. 3 seeds have won four.
It means a top-three seed has won 33 of the past 38 NCAA tournaments (86.84%).
Top-three seeded teams have also won 23 of the last 25 NCAA tournaments.
There have only been three tournaments since 1985 where a No. 5 seed or lower has cut down the nets. No. 8 seed Villanova was the lowest seed team to win the national title in 1985.
Trust the blue-blood teams
Since 1985, the 38 tournaments have been won by 19 different teams. Twenty-three of the last 29 tournaments have been won by UConn, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina or Villanova.
Each of those teams is back in the 2024 NCAA Tournament except for Villanova.
Speaking of blue … pick a team with blue uniforms to win the national championship. Since 2004, only Louisville in 2013 and Baylor in 2021 have won the national championship without blue as a primary uniform color.
National champions by year:
- 2023: UConn
- 2022: Kansas
- 2021: Baylor
- 2020: Canceled due to COVID-19 pandemic
- 2019: Virginia
- 2018: Villanova
- 2017: North Carolina
- 2016 Villanova
- 2015: Duke
- 2014: UConn
- 2013: Louisville
- 2012: Kentucky
- 2011: UConn
- 2010: Duke
- 2009: North Carolina
- 2008: Kansas
- 2007: Florida
- 2006: Florida
- 2005: North Carolina
- 2004: UConn
Pick some upsets
It’s not impossible, but it’s generally smart not to pick a 16-seed to upset a 1-seed or a 15-seed to upset a 2-seed.
A 16-seed has upset a 1-seed only twice in the history of the tournament: UMBC upset Virginia in 2018 and Fairleigh Dickinson upset Purdue last year.
A 15-seed has upset a 2-seed only 11 times.
As outlined by the Athletic's Adam Gretz, there are about eight upsets per year throughout the tournament where the lower-seeded team wins. There are rarely fewer than five upsets. There are rarely more than 12.
There is a reason most fans pick at least one 12-seed to upset a 5-seed. A 12-seed has upset a 5-seed in 17 of the 22 tournaments since 2000.
UConn is No. 1 overall seed, favorite to win national championship
UConn (31-3) is trying to repeat as national champions.
The last time a team won back-to-back NCAA tournaments was in 2006 and 2007, when the Florida Gators were repeat national champions.
Last year’s UConn championship team lost three of its starters – Adama Sanogo, Jordan Hawkins, and Andre Jackson Jr.—to the NBA.
Blue bloods don’t rebuild, they reload.
UConn head coach Dan Hurley replaced the NBA talent with freshman Stephon Castle, who is the team’s best NBA prospect. Also, senior transfer guard Cam Spencer is among college basketball’s most efficient players (14.5 points per game, 3.27 assist-to-turnover ratio, 48.8% field-goal percentage, 91.3% free-throw percentage and 44.4% from 3-point range).
Don’t forget about point guard Tristen Newton, 6-8 forward Alex Karaban and center Donovan Clingan, who could be a lottery pick in June’s NBA Draft.
Entering the tournament, UConn ranks first in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency at 126.6 points per 100 offensive possessions, according to KenPom. The Huskies rank 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing 94.4 points per 100 possessions.
In the East Region, UConn may need to beat No. 2 seed Iowa State, who crushed Houston in Saturday’s Big 12 Championship game, No. 3 seed Illinois or No. 4 seed Auburn.
Iowa State applies constant pressure defensively. KenPom has Iowa State as second in the country in turnover percentage.
KenPom has Auburn as its No. 4 team overall in the country.
In the second round of the tournament, UConn could play No. 8 seed Florida Atlantic. The Owls return seven of eight rotation players from last year’s 2023 Final Four Team.
If UConn loses, which other teams could win the 2024 NCAA Tournament?
Houston
Houston is considered the second-favorite to win the national title. In the past four seasons, Houston head coach Kelvin Sampson has led his team to the Sweet 16 twice, the Elite Eight and the Final Four.
Houston is loaded with scorers: Former Baylor transfer L.J. Cryer (15.3 points per game), Big 12 Player of the Year Jamal Shead (13.1 points per game and 6.2 assists per game), Emmanuel Sharp (12.2 points per game) and J’Wan Roberts (9.4 points per game and 6.8 rebounds per game).
North Carolina
North Carolina has two key pieces. 2024 ACC Player of the Year RJ Davis and double-double machine Armando Bacot both played in the 2022 national championship game. North Carolina had a double-digit lead against Kansas at halftime in that game but lost.
This season’s North Carolina team has regrouped after missing the NCAA Tournament a year ago.
Davis was the ACC Player of the Year (21.4 points per game and 40.6% from beyond the arc).
Davis is among 10 semifinalists for the Naismith Player of the Year. He’s one of the best guards in America, and big man Bacot is a double-double machine.
If forward Harrison Ingram and guard Cormac Ryan are hitting their outside shots, it opens things up even more for Davis and Bacot.
Purdue
A year ago, Purdue lost to 16-seed Farleigh Dickson in the first round.
Purdue is much improved from 3-point range, going from 32.2% to 40.8%. The Boilermakers are the second-best team in the country in 3-point percentage.
Reigning Wooden Award winner Zach Edey is massive at 7’4” and 300 pounds. He averages 24.4 points per game and 11.7 rebounds per game.
Boilermakers sophomore guard Braden Smith ranks fourth in the nation in assists at 7.3 per game.
Which team that isn’t a No. 1 seed has the best chance of winning the national championship?
Arizona
The Wildcats have consistently been one of the best teams in men’s college basketball and finished the year 25-8. Losing early in the Pac-12 Tournament is never great, but they should be able to bounce back quickly.
Former UNC star Caleb Love leads the way with 18.1 points per game, and he has the experience needed to excel in the postseason.
Arizona loves to push the pace. If they can run the way they want, it can be hard to keep up with the Wildcats.
Iowa State
The Cyclones have only lost three times since the start of February; two of those three losses came against tournament teams. Iowa State is also fresh off of an absolute thrashing of 1-seed Houston in the Big 12 Championship game, holding them to 41 points.
Iowa State’s defense is absolutely terrifying, ranking No. 1 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom.
The offense isn’t spectacular, but it’s just outside the top-50 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Kehson Gilbert leads the way with 12.8 points per game. Four of five starters have attempted 100 or more threes this season. Their region is tough, but watch out if the Cyclones get past the Sweet Sixteen.
Auburn
Auburn also falls into the category of trending team as the NCAA Tournament gets started. The Tigers have won six straight games, including the SEC Championship and head coach Bruce Pearl has plenty of experience playing deep into March.
The team’s spot as a four-seed is a little surprising, KenPom ranks them as the No. 4 team overall heading into the tournament, with a top ten adjusted efficiency in offense and defense.
Johni Broome leads the way with 16.2 points per game. The Tigers play fast and have a deep bench, no one averages more than 30 minutes per game and nine players average 15 minutes or more.
The Tigers' biggest hurdle: a possible Sweet 16 matchup with defending champ UConn.
