Brownlow: Breaking down Duke and NC State's chances in the dance this week and beyond

By Lauren Brownlow, WRALSportsFan columnist/reporter

Well, here it is: Tournament Time! And like usual, the Triangle has two teams headed there! Wait, it's not Duke and North Carolina? Kidding, people. Yes, it's Duke and NC State, two of the three teams from the state of North Carolina to make the NCAA Tournament and two of the five teams to make the field from a weak ACC.

Duke is as hot as any team in the country coming into the NCAA Tournament, but as the 5-seed will have to overcome an East Region stacked with blue-blood programs and potential roadblocks. NC State, meanwhile, will be in the South Region as the No. 11 seed with Round 1 playing in Denver. NC State also started on the west coast in 1983, but was a 6-seed instead. Hey, every run has to start somewhere.

So let's break down Duke and NC State's Regions, their potential opponents both this weekend and beyond and the most important part: the best names in each Region.

DUKE (26-8): NO. 5 SEED, EAST REGION

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK

While the bracket itself might look daunting, teams just have to win three weekend Tournaments, right? And so all Duke has to worry about this weekend are three teams, the first being the 12-seed no one wanted: Oral Roberts (30-4). The Golden Eagles have the nation's longest winning streak at 17 games and boast the nation's No. 23 opponent-adjusted offense, per statistician Ken Pomeroy. They don't have a ton of size, but they do have a 7-5 center in Connor Vanover who is one of the best shot-blockers in the country. Oral Roberts is not a great defensive team, but it does hold opponents to just 46.6% from 2-point range and it manages to block quite a few shots. Still, Duke will have a size and athleticism advantage.

Duke's defense has been the reason for the Blue Devils' nine-game winning streak, and that defense will be the sixth top-25 Ken Pom offense Duke has seen this season. Duke went 5-2 against offenses ranked above Oral Roberts this season and beat two top-25 defenses in the ACC Tournament alone, and no doubt Duke's staff will spend plenty of time studying tape and trying to find weaknesses. Oral Roberts' offense is so efficient at least in part due to one of the best players in the country over the last few years in Max Abmas, who has one of the best offensive efficiency rankings in the country year after year in spite of being a 6-0 guard and playing nearly 91% of his team's available minutes. Abmas shoots 52% from 2, 38.1% from 3 and nearly 92% from the foul line, a place he gets to quite often. Abmas averages 22.2 points, slightly trailing the 22.8 he averaged last year and the 24.5 the year before, adding 4.0 assists (a career-best number) and 1.1 steals.

If Duke wants to assure itself the win, it needs to attack the basket early and often to draw fouls. Oral Roberts is not a team that gets to the foul line often, but it keeps opponents off the line better than all but five other teams in the country. Earlier this year, Houston held Abmas to just 3 points on 1 of 13 shooting and dominated Oral Roberts as a result. Duke will need a similar performance defensively and every shot Abmas takes has to be challenged.

Should Duke win, they'll take on either 4-seed Tennessee or 13-seed Louisiana. The Volunteers were a bit of a surprise 4-seed choice over Duke since they lost seven of their final 12 games, but Ken Pom's metrics still love them (No. 5 nationally). Rick Barnes' squad is what you'd think a Rick Barnes team would be — at times questionable offensively but elite defensively, ranking No. 2 nationally in the latter. Tennessee has slipped a bit recently defensively though. After holding 18 of its first 20 opponents below 100 in offensive efficiency, the Vols have done that just five times in the last 13 games. Tennessee has lost just twice this season when holding opponents below 100, and when it has lost it has been because the offense was just that bad. A potential matchup with Duke looks like a meatgrinder of a basketball game with a lot of missed shots and fights for offensive rebounds, but one that Duke can certainly win, especially feeling better about itself offensively than Tennessee is.

But could 13-seed Louisiana pull the upset? The Rajun Cajuns aren't super likely to be a threat to Tennessee on paper, ranking just 146th nationally in defense. But they do shoot it well (36.6% from 3) and rebound well (31st nationally in offensive rebounding percentage and 83rd in defensive rebounding percentage). But they don't take a lot of 3-pointers. It's tough to imagine they'll know what to do with Tennessee's athleticism, but you never know what can happen when an underdog team gets hot and the higher seed feels the pressure. Still, Tennessee should be able to take care of business.

All told, Duke is the favorite to win and should win this little four-team mini-tournament to advance to Jon Scheyer's first Sweet 16. Should.

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

It's a blue-blood heavy bracket with Michigan State, Duke, Purdue, Memphis, Kentucky and Marquette, but don't let the names alone fool you. All of those teams have multiple Final Fours to their name, but obviously the danger they pose this season may vary.

Should Duke keep advancing, No. 1 seed Purdue certainly looms as an intriguing rematch. The Boilermakers will take on the winner of the 16-seed play-in game between Texas Southern and Fairleigh Dickinson, the two lowest-ranked Ken Pomeroy teams in the field. Texas Southern was a huge surprise in the SWAC Tournament, entering it with an 11-20 record and losers of three straight. But they upset Grambling State in the title game to take the title. They're actually worse than North Carolina at shooting 3-pointers and one of the worst teams in the country at shooting 2-pointers and free throws as well, so their chances of upset aren't so good. But Fairleigh Dickinson is one of the worst defensive teams in the country (literally, per Ken Pom, only two teams are worse), so that makes for an intriguing First Four matchup at least. Neither are likely to threaten the Boilermakers.

It's Round 2 where things could get spicy. They'll take on either 8-seed Memphis or 9-seed Florida Atlantic, the latter of which is tied with two teams for the best winning percentage in the country. FAU has one of the best shooting teams in the country overall and is strong on the defensive end as well, holding opponents to just 44.8% from 2 and 32% from 3. The Owls use a lot of their bench and are willing to play fast and are experienced playing together, ranking 26th nationally in minutes continuity. It's a tough 8-9 game for Penny Hardaway's Memphis squad, but his Tigers rank 11th in Division I experience and is loaded with veteran talent. No matter who advances in that 8-9 game, they'll give Purdue a very tough test in the Round of 32.

Recent history for Big Ten No. 1 seeds hasn't been great as just one of the six have reached the Final Four since 2007, but every NCAA Tournament is its own unique snowflake. Purdue beat Duke like a drum earlier in the season, 75-56. But that was a long time ago for Duke and the Blue Devils weren't close to becoming the team they would be. Duke was dominated on the glass in that one 42-31 (Purdue rebounded 41.2% of its own misses and 71.8% of Duke's), and that will have to flip should the two meet again. Dereck Lively fouled out of the first meeting in 22 minutes while Purdue's star 7-4 center Zach Edey rolled to 21 points and 12 boards.

Purdue came into February 21-1 and lost four of its final nine regular-season games, but the Boilermakers knocked off Rutgers, upset-minded Ohio State and fended off Penn State in the title game to take home the Big Ten crown and go into March with some momentum. Will it be enough? Or will Memphis or FAU do the dirty work for Duke?

But it's No. 2 seed Marquette that comes into the postseason the hottest, winners of nine in a row and boasting a 19-2 record in 2023. Shaka Smart's squads are usually known for their defense, but it's the Golden Eagles' offense that has gotten them here (ranking 8th nationally in Ken Pom's offensive efficiency ratings).They still wreak a bit of havoc on the defensive end too, forcing turnovers on 22.8% of opponents' possessions. If there's a team int he country as hot or hotter than Duke, it would be Marquette. They'll take on 15-seed Vermont in Round 1. The Catamounts own one of the nation's longest active winning streaks at 15 games. A good shooting team that turned a 2-7 start into a 23-10 finish, Vermont may have wrecked the America East Tournament but will have their hands full with Marquette.

Should Marquette advance, they'll take on either 7-seed Michigan State or 10-seed USC. Tom Izzo, in March? Never count him out, of course. And any time Duke and Michigan State are in the same bracket, a meeting feels inevitable. The Spartans are 4th nationally in 3-point shooting, which always makes them dangerous. The Trojans have one of the stingiest defenses in the country but sometimes struggle shooting.

The No. 3 seed Kansas State will have to get past 11-seed Montana State, a team that has lost twice in 2023, and then potentially 6-seed Kentucky looms. Kansas State has some great wins, but after a 15-1 start, the Wildcats have gone 8-8 since and lost two in a row. Kentucky started 10-6 after an awful loss at home to South Carolina, but they've gone 11-5 since and won five of their final seven games with the only losses coming to Vanderbilt. The Wildcats have plenty of talent and reigning National Player of the Year Oscar Tshiebwe. They'll have to get past Ed Cooley's 11-seed Providence squad in Round 1, and while Cooley's coaching acumen is not in doubt, his team has lost four of five entering the Tournament.

REGIONAL ALL-NAME TEAM

Great Osobor, Montana State
Zytarious Mortle, Texas Southern
Harrison Hornery, USC
Ansley Almonor, Fairleigh Dickinson
Zakai Zeigler, Tennessee
Oso Ighodaro, Marquette
Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Marquette
Boogie Ellis, USC
Trevon Blassingame, Fairleigh Dickinson
Giancarlo Rosado, FAU
Santiago Vescovi, Tennessee
Uros Plasvic, Tennessee

SWEET 16 CHANCES

A little scary ... but promising.

FINAL FOUR CHANCES

If Duke gets to the second weekend? Yeah, watch out.

NC STATE (23-10): NO. 11 SEED, SOUTH REGION

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK

The Wolfpack will open NCAA Tournament play on Friday afternoon in Denver against No. 6 seed Creighton (21-12), a team their rival UNC knows quite well from its own sordid NCAA Tournament history. Creighton started the season 6-6 and then 9-8 before rattling off eight wins in a row and winning 12 of their final 16 overall. The Blue Jays fell 82-60 in the Big East Tournament in their most recent game, but nine of their 12 losses this season are to teams in the field of 68. And in 2023, Creighton only has one loss to a team outside the field.

The assumption with Creighton would be great offense, but the defense is what's better statistically, ranking 15th nationally. The Blue Jays don't force turnovers but hold opponents to just 45.6% shooting inside the arc, rank second nationally in defensive free-throw rate and 13th in defensive rebounding. That defensive free-throw rate is a stat worth watching as NC State's guards love to attack and draw fouls. And Creighton is still a good offensive team, shooting 36% from 3 and 54.5% from 2. But they don't get to the foul line much themselves. In NC State's losses, their opponents have practically had a parade to the foul line and NC State can't let the free-throw disparity be too wide in this one.

Creighton's defense has also been inconsistent at best as of late, holding UConn to its worst offensive performance of the season on February 11 in a win only to allow to have its third-best performance on offense in a loss two weeks later. But Creighton has five players that average in double figures and four that shoot at least 36% from 3. NC State will have to get back to the way it won games before: with its defense. Creighton has some tricky smaller lineups it can play, but no bigs that are likely to gash them the way Clemson's versatile bigs can. NC State has to get the game to be played the way they want it to instead of vice versa. Avoid fouls, try to force turnovers, play fast and don't give up any easy shots.

Should the Wolfpack pull the upset, they'll get either No. 3 seed Baylor (22-10) or 14-seed UC-Santa Barbara (27-7). Baylor comes out of the battle-tested Big 12 and while the offense is as elite is ever, the defense hasn't been so much, ranking 103rd nationally compared to No. 2 for the offense. The Bears take a lot of 3-pointers and generally make a lot of them, but obviously upset potential arises if they don't. Baylor doesn't have a bad loss to its name this season with its only two blemishes out of conference coming to teams in the field (Virginia and Marquette). The defense has left something to be desired, ranking 314th against the 2-pointer and 78th against the 3. The Bears also allow teams to get on the offensive boards pretty well and will send them to the foul line. But when they get going offensively, they are tough to beat. Could NC State do it? Absolutely. But it would be a tall order. Still, NC State has shown it's capable.

But Baylor will have to get past UCSB first. The Gauchos will be America's darling if they can keep it close against Baylor in spite of the fact that all of the players get to enjoy a campus that is perhaps the most beautiful in the country. The Gauchos actually score most of their points from inside the arc, which is promising for a matchup with Baylor's defense, but they also haven't faced a Ken Pomeroy team ranked higher than 99 all season. Between that and their just-OK 35.1% 3-point percentage, I'm not feeling great about their upset chances. But NC State would certainly love it because I think they cruise against the Gauchos.

So can NC State win this two-game Tournament? Definitely. Can the Wolfpack just as easily lose a hard-fought game against the Blue Jays in Round 1? Obviously. The Wolfpack will have to put the loss to Clemson firmly in the past and go in with new attitudes. And hopefully they get to Denver far enough in advance to adjust to the altitutde.

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

As an 11-seed, let's just admit that NC State's outlook is not great on paper. But remember that whole one four-game Tournament at a time thing? Plus, you never know what can happen in the rest of the bracket. Even just one upset can open everything up.

So let's say NC State makes the Sweet 16. Should seeds hold, it would face No. 2-seed Arizona (28-6) in Louisville. The Wildcats started the season 22-3 before losing three of their final six regular-season games. But they bounced back quite nicely by winning the Pac-12 Tournament, including a 61-59 win over UCLA in the rubber match between the two in the title game. Arizona's offense is elite, ranking 14th in 3-point shooting and 9th in 2-pointers. And their defense is good enough, ranking 41st nationally. They'll have to get past 15-seed Princeton (21-8), a team that ... well, it won the Ivy League. Other than not allowing teams to rebound their misses, there's not a whole lot else that stands out about the Tigers as an upset contender, honestly. They shoot just 34% from 3 and aren't that experienced.

Should Arizona advance, they'd get either 7-seed Missouri (24-9) or 10-seed Utah State (26-8). Missouri doesn't have a bad loss on its slate but when the Tigers have lost, it's generally been emphatically: six of their nine losses are by double digits. Defensively, Missouri is ... well, not very good. But when the Tigers can get going with the No. 10 offense in the country, they're difficult to contain. That's the type of team that could potentially upset an Arizona, although it will need to find some defense from somewhere.

But that would assume Missouri gets past Utah State, a team that Ken Pomeroy's metrics like far better (No. 18 nationally) than the committee did. The Aggies have the No. 13 offense in the country and are better defensively than Missouri, plus they rank 27th nationally in experience. They also shoot the 3 very well, ranking 11th in the country (38.5%). Either Utah State or Missouri could have the offensive firepower to knock off Arizona, but they'd need some help from the Wildcats too.

Elsewhere in the bracket, top-seed Alabama (29-5) got the overall No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and the Tide is ... well, rolling. Alabama both takes and makes a ton of 3-pointers, plays fast and has athletes all over the court. The Tide will take on the winner of a play-in game between 16-seeds Southeast Missouri State (19-16) and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (23-10). Well, they both have long names. Can we call Texas A&M-Corpus Christi the Islanders? That's shorter. Well, the Islanders are probably a little better than the play-in game between 16-seeds, but here they are. As 16-seeds go, they do have at least SOME upset potential, shooting nearly 37% from 3. And they do have some experience. But their defense ranks 229th nationally and Alabama is just really good. Southeast Missouri State went into the Ohio Valley Tournament under .500 but rattled off four straight wins, including an overtime win in the title game to punch their ticket. But ... well, they rank 263rd nationally in offense and 243rd in defense, plus 285th in experience. Not a lot of upset potential there.

So let's put Alabama in the second round, where they'd meet the winner of the 8-9 game between No. 8 Maryland (21-12) and No. 9 West Virginia (19-14). West Virginia certainly both suffered and benefited from a loaded Big 12; the Mountaineers lost a lot, but only three times to teams not in the field of 68. But if we're talking upset potential, the best win the Mountaineers had by Ken Pom was against Iowa State (twice) and Kansas State (once). Still, Bob Huggins' team still has a defense that tries to force turnovers and an offense that while it doesn't shoot all that well, will get its own misses a lot and get to the free-throw line. Maryland is an experienced group under Kevin Willard and has some pretty strong wins (Miami on a neutral court, Purdue at home) and mostly just avoided losing to bad teams. The Terps aren't a great shooting team though, ranking 221st in 3-point shooting.

Probably somewhat safe to move Alabama to the Sweet 16, where if seeds hold, they'd face 4-seed Virginia (25-7). The Cavaliers got the benefit of being the ACC's highest-seeded team, but they'll have to hold off a feisty 14-seed in Furman (27-7). It's too bad that Virginia's Ben Vander Plas is out for the year, because Furman has a Ben VanderWal. Furman lost by just five to Penn State and beat South Carolina by 19 in non-conference play, although it did lose to NC State by 19 on the road. The Paladins have lost just twice in 2023 and lost once since January 14. What they lack in height they make up for in shooting, making just 34.4% of their 3-pointers but 59.1% of their 2-point tries. Furman is just all right defensively, but their offense will put some pressure on Virginia's defense. The Cavaliers have been much better on that end of the court lately and will have to keep that up.

If Virginia advances, it will face the winner of the matchup between No. 5 seed San Diego State (27-6) and 12-seed Charleston (31-3). The 12th-seeded Cougars are tied for the best winning percentage nationally and have won 10 in a row after they lost their first two conference games consecutively. Their only other loss that season had come at North Carolina in early November. The Cougars aren't super experienced but they play fast and they are capable of getting hot. They're also a solid defensive team, ranking 75th in schedule-adjusted efficiency nationally. They take a ton of 3-pointers but don't always make a ton of them, shooting 33.3% from 3 but scoring 37.2% of their points from 3, the 28th-highest percentage nationally.

San Diego State is who it usually is — a stout defensive team (10th nationally) that doesn't shoot all that well. But that defense will keep the Aztecs in any game they play. They're more experienced than the Cougars and should they advance, they'll give Virginia a run.

Ultimately, no team from the 4-5 side of the bracket looks to challenge Alabama. So it will come down to the other side, and if NC State or someone else (or both) are able to pull upsets. It's just nice for the University of Alabama athletic department to have a team that it can count on in the postseason for once.

REGIONAL ALL-NAME TEAM

Flo Thamba, Baylor
Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, Baylor
Koat Keat Tong, UCSB
Oumar Bello, Arizona
Azuolas Tubelis, Arizona
Kerr Kriisa, Arizona
Tosan Evbuomwan, Princeton
Zee Hamoda, Utah State
Aguek Arop, San Diego State
Babacar Faye, College of Charleston

SWEET 16 CHANCES

FINAL FOUR CHANCES