Brownlow: NC State, Duke and UNC all seek to avoid two losses in a row as crunch time hits
Posted February 10, 2023 1:36 p.m. EST
Now or never. Do or die. Must win. Season on the brink. Whatever cliche you want to use, it applies to all three Triangle teams in some way this weekend as all three face pivotal (there's another one!) matchups that could determine their season-long fate. NC State won't be in or out of the NCAA Tournament by virtue of what happens this weekend in Chestnut Hill, but if NC State wants to prove that this team is different, it won't lose a game like this. But many a dream has died an inexplicable death on the quiet floor of Conte Forum as a blowout on paper suddenly turns into a horrible loss.
Clemson isn't even a Quadrant-1 game for UNC, but let's face it — at this point, the Tar Heels just need to WIN. Until Tuesday, UNC didn't have a bad loss on its schedule. Losing at Wake Forest by 7 doesn't sound bad. And if that's all you saw, it won't seem bad. But the Tar Heels trailed early and often and by a lot, including facing their biggest deficit of the season. And it's their third straight loss. None of those things are good. Add in the fact that the Tar Heels' offense was joined in its hot mess status by its defense and it just feels like things are spiraling or have spiraled out of control. UNC used to beat Clemson all the time at home, and it needs to find a way to do that again. The last time Clemson came into the Smith Center, though, the Tigers broke the streak. But Clemson has lost two in a row as well and could find itself on the outside of the NCAA Tournament field in spite of being tied for the regular-season ACC lead with just seven games to go. This game won't determine that one way or the other, but Clemson needs to prove it won't fall apart late like it usually does. In basketball.
When Virginia and Duke get together lately, it's always been special. Back when I was not dealing with long COVID, Virginia was my annual road trip, and it was almost always to see Duke play a Saturday night primetime matchup there. I don't care what anyone has to say about Virginia's style of play: those two just have just played game after game filled with exciting endings where every possession felt important, and often was. They're must-see TV when they get together. Obviously, I'm choosing Duke-Carolina over Duke-Virginia if it comes down to it, but Duke-Virginia has been good enough these last 7-8 seasons that I'd at least have to think about it. It's a familiar spot: Virginia in the ACC regular-season lead and a talented Duke team coming to town. Only now, Duke is coming off of a blowout loss and there's no Mike Krzyzewski on the sideline anymore. Can these two keep their magic? I'm excited to find out.
Let's get to the GIFs!
NO. 22 NC STATE (19-6, 9-5 ACC) AT BOSTON COLLEGE (12-13, 6-8 ACC)
Time: 12 p.m.
TV: RSN
#ANALYSIS
For the uninitiated, a trip to Boston College for NC State would not seem compelling. But NC State fans know better. And NC State is far from the only ACC team to go into Chestnut Hills, confidence high and hoping for the best, only to leave shaking their heads and wondering what just happened. NC State has actually won two of its last three trips to Boston College, though, and by an average of 21 points. All NC State needs is good enough.
It's worth pointing out that this version of Boston College isn't the one that lost to New Hampshire and Maine at home in December. No, for whatever reason when Boston College hit ACC play it decided to mix in some moments of competence. Half of BC's ACC wins are against NCAA Tournament bubble teams, including a season sweep of Virginia Tech and a win over Clemson. If you want to throw Duke and UNC into that mix, their two closest losses in ACC play were to those two. And they've won four of the last six, which in post-Skinner BC terms is like a 12-game win streak.
Just enough for NC State in this game would be posting an offensive efficiency over 100, and the Wolfpack is 19-1 when it has done that this season. Boston College is 9-1 when it holds opponents below that mark. That includes shooting well, getting offensive rebounds, getting to the foul line, all of it. Free throws have been an issue in NC State's ACC losses, and four of NC State's six losses this year have come when it allowed a free-throw rate of 40 or higher (NC State has still won three of those games, for the record). In league play, though? It hasn't been necessarily the number of free throws allowed (19.9 in wins, 23.8 in losses) but the percentage. NC State's opponents have shot 86.6% in its five league losses from the foul line compared to 68.2% in wins. And yes, NC State has gotten to the foul line less in losses (20.4 in wins, 15.6 in losses) but has shot slightly worse too: 71.7% in wins and 62.8% in losses. NC State's closest losses in league play are still more than one possession, but it all adds up. NC State has been outscored by over 10 points a game in ACC losses on free throws alone. NC State's aggressive defense will result in more fouls being called, but NC State has to make sure it does its part to get to the line on the other end as well and go right into the teeth of BC's defense, where its most important players are.
BC doesn't win a lot of games, but it is 10-4 this year when it has a free-throw rate over 30. NC State has only held eight opponents under that mark and has won plenty of games in spite of allowing a good free-throw rate, but they don't need to make it easier by putting BC on the foul line. BC doesn't shoot the ball well from anywhere, but it does make free throws decently enough (77.3% in league play, good enough for fourth).
And speaking of that defense, NC State thrives on forcing turnovers. BC has been willing to oblige in that department as their turnover rate on offense ranks 11th in conference play. Although here's a weird stat: BC is 3-7 when it has a turnover percentage BELOW 16 and 9-6 when it's OVER 16 percent. (They're 1-5 when it's above 20 percent, by the way.) Regardless, that's what NC State does well and what it will need to do again in this one. Play smart offense, try to get to the line, but get through this — good, bad, or ugly — with a win. Style points won't matter.
NAMES TO KNOW
D.J. Burns. When you go to a place where it won't be fun but you need to have energy, you bring your friend that manages to make a party wherever they are, right? I feel like Burns is that friend. His energy is contagious and when he's feeling it, so is every single one of his teammates. And also me. And I'm sure lots of NC State fans. It's a joy to watch. He had a more frustrating evening on Tuesday against Virginia's aggressive double teams, posting his lowest point total in 2023 with 8 points and adding six turnovers, a season high. His 21 minutes were also the fewest he's managed since January 7. His minutes have been limited by a few factors, namely his fitness (much less of an issue now) and his fouls. Those fouls were an issue again at Virginia as he picked up four. Boston College has allowed 50 points in the last two games to starting centers, though, and Burns needs to get back on track in this one and help carry his team.
Quinten Post. I couldn't help but look at Boston College's results a bit more closely and wonder what changed for them in ACC play? Was it really just they saved all their good stuff for Virginia Tech and leave their worst for the Maines and New Hampshires? And then I realized: 7-foot center Quinten Post missed the first 13 games of the season with injury. Obviously, he can't cure all the Eagles' woes. But the stretch-5 has averaged 21.1 points and 7.5 rebounds in the last six games on 56.3% shooting (46.4% from 3). And he had 18 points on 9 of 10 shooting in a win over NC State a year ago. Burns may have to chase him around to the 3-point line a bit, which could impact him, but Burns will also have to continue to playing the kind of elite positional defense he's capable of to shut down BC's most potent offensive threat.
NARRATIVES
NC State Win:
NC State Loss:
Boston College Win:
Boston College Loss:
PREDICTION
NC State, 75-64. Some sweat-inducing moments, but NC State has bounced back from losses all year long.
CLEMSON (18-6, 10-3 ACC) AT NORTH CAROLINA (15-9, 7-6 ACC)
Time: 2 p.m.
TV: ESPN2
#ANALYSIS
Doesn't it feel like it's been a solid decade since Clemson ended its forever streak in Chapel Hill? I know it was only 2020 when it happened, but come on. It was pre-pandemic. It feels like a lifetime ago. But it wasn't. The Clemson team gets the luxury of that no longer having over their heads. And while other good Clemson teams have come in and lost to arguably worse Carolina teams, Clemson was the better team this year. That's probably true this year as well, but Clemson has managed to chalk up two-thirds of its conference losses and a third of its losses on the season in just its last two games. And while Clemson is 12-1 at home with its only loss coming by four to Miami, the Tigers are 6-5 outside of Littlejohn Coliseum. After starting ACC play 3-0 on the road, the Tigers have lost two of their last three road games. The lone road win was by 1 point at Florida State. Also, does anyone remember how Clemson was forever cursed in close games? This year, the Tigers are 5-1 in games decided by fewer than 10 points in league play. Carolina is 3-6 in such games and 0-3 in their last three.
This game is about far more than the past, though, and that goes for both teams. Clemson's awful non-conference performance has left the Tigers No. 69 in NET, which is the opposite of nice. There are only 10 teams ranked below Clemson in NET with six losses or fewer, and they are ... not from good conferences. The closest power-conference team with six losses or fewer to Clemson in NET is USC, ranked a full 19 spots higher. DO BETTER, CLEMSON. PLEASE. The point beyond the scolding is that Clemson is a bubble team right now in spite of being in a tie for first in league play. So there is not much room for error and plenty more room for feathers in their cap, so to speak. This would be a big feather.
What's wrong with North Carolina, exactly? Answering that question is far from simple. After losing two in a row, no one expected Carolina to come out and look as lifeless as it did from the opening tip. Cutting the deficit to 7 was hollow, and Hubert Davis and the players acknowledged as much. The answer to what's wrong with North Carolina is better answered when you think of what they look like when things are RIGHT: and it's guard play. R.J. Davis and Caleb Love have combined for 93 points in the last three games, but they've taken 101 shots to get there and made just 33.7% of them. Oh, and 26.1% from 3. They had 40 points against Wake, but UNC scored 41 points in the last 10 minutes after scoring 44 in the first 30 and a lot of those points for them came in that stretch. In ACC losses this season, Davis and Love have actually averaged more points (30.2 combined) than in losses (24.3), but the shooting percentage drops across the board and so does the assist/turnover ratio (from 1.5 in wins to 1.1 in losses). Also in all ACC losses, the two combined for nearly 28 shot attempts on average (up from 24.4 in wins) but that average shot up to 33.7 in the last three losses.
Does UNC need them to play better? Yes. There is no other option. Sure, Brady Manek made the offense run smoother last year with his ability to space the floor. But UNC's offense has put up three of its five worst shooting performances in the last three games and that's just not going to cut it. It would help if Davis or Love could shut down opposing guards on the defensive end, but that's not happening either. Guards are toasting UNC's defense regularly. Davis and Love both sometimes thrive in their unconventional shot selection, but a hastily-bricked 3-pointer early in the shot clock hits differently when you have Armando Bacot on the interior. You watch UNC's offense, there's not a lot of movement going on but it seems back to the standing around we saw more at the beginning of the year. At a certain point, we all have to come to terms with the fact that this team can't shoot 3-pointers well. But the team itself probably needs to come to terms with it too.
Clemson doesn't force a ton of turnovers, but it rebounds so well defensively and is more than capable of hitting 3-pointers. Point guard Chase Hunter has been a revelation this year alongside backcourt mate Brevin Galloway, even if Clemson's best players reside nearer the paint. Galloway has been dealing with ... an unconventional injury, but he's back. Hunter started the year with just two games not in double figures in his first 18 before going out with injury and missing three games in January. If he or Galloway can't perform (or both), UNC shouldn't have any issues. But if not ... it's going to be a long day.
NAMES TO KNOW
Chase Hunter. The junior point guard had his moments his first few seasons at Clemson, but this year he's been able to turn it into something much more consistent. After starting the year 26 of 49 from 3 in non-conference play, Hunter is weirdly just 5 of 36 in ACC games. He can be a little turnover-prone (he has a 19.3% turnover rate in league play to a 20.0 assist rate), he is very good at drawing fouls and getting to the foul line. Oh, and making them. He's shooting nearly 94% from the charity stripe in ACC play and gets to the line nearly 5 times a game. He's had to pick up the slack a bit from Galloway after his ... situation, and he hasn't been quite up to the task. But if he gets going, it'll be a harbinger of bad things to come as the Tar Heels can't afford an opposing backcourt to go nuts again.
Armando Bacot. It feels weird ever putting him here because all eyes will be on the senior regardless. But Bacot, who has gotten better and better every season and is playing the best he's played in his career, is over this whole LOSING thing. He knows this is his last go at it. All year, he has had six games where he had an individual offensive rating under 100. Unfortunately for both he and UNC, three of those have come in the last four games. He had started to become a better passer out of double teams and rack up some assists, but in the last three games he has three assists to seven turnovers after posting nine assists in the previous four games (all wins). He always has and always will be in some sort of foul trouble, but it's been worse lately as he's had at least three fouls in seven straight games and four or more in five of seven. He'd done that just seven times in the first 17 games. Oh, and in games Bacot has finished, he has picked up at least three fouls in seven out of eight losses. Foul trouble comes with the territory, and he's learning to play through it. But he'll have his work cut out with Clemson's two talented big men in Hunter Tyson and P.J. Hall, and they're going to focus all of their defense on him.
Bacot drew a line in the sand after the last game, though, and he's never been known to mince words. He knows what lies ahead for the Tar Heels: three road games and of the four home games, they're all against top-tier ACC teams. This is not the time for this team to fall apart. Bacot is going to do everything in his power to ensure that doesn't happen. But he can't do it by himself. Usually.
NARRATIVES
Clemson Win:
Clemson Loss:
North Carolina Win:
North Carolina Loss:
PREDICTION
North Carolina, 75-67. The Tar Heels' last stand, if you will. I also think this isn't the worst matchup for UNC, and it's at home. But lose this game, especially convincingly, and it might be beyond saving this season.
DUKE (17-7, 8-5 ACC) AT NO. 8 VIRGINIA (18-4, 10-3 ACC)
Time: 4 p.m.
TV: ESPN
#ANALYSIS
Look, I'm all but bed-ridden with long COVID. I don't ask for a whole lot. I derive my simple pleasures from things like binging a great season of television or time with my friends and family, who are all patient enough with me to know I don't always feel like talking. But while I've found joy in things I never imagined I would, I like the idea of still finding joy in things I always have. And one of those things is yes, Duke-Carolina, but Duke-Virginia maybe is a little closer to my heart lately. Just as a basketball game, of course — the experience of Duke-Carolina can't be rivaled. (Pun not intended, but we'll go with it.) But whether I've been working the game or watching from home or both, I can tell you I almost never looked at my phone or glanced at my computer. Every possession felt so important; special players made insane plays and I just think these two bring out the best in each other.
There's no guarantee it'll still be that way. Duke does still come in as the more talented team on paper trying to knock off Virginia from the top of the ACC standings. But this Duke offense ... it isn't classic Duke in any sense of the word. There is some good news for the Blue Devils: Virginia doesn't try to force a ton of turnovers with its pack line defense, and Duke has struggled with that this year.
But if Duke can play at a high level defensively, it will help. Virginia has been excellent offensively this year, posting an effective field goal percentage over 50% in 15 of 22 games and an OE over 100 in 19 games. Duke has only shot above 50% in eFG% in 13 out of 24 games. Duke is 6-5 when it's below 50% and 11-2 when it's above that, so maybe try to do that. Of course, it'll be easier said than done against Virginia, who's only allowed that eight times and has still managed to win six of those games in spite of it.
Duke had a five-game stretch where it shot at least 35.4% from 3, but it was interrupted by Miami where they shot just 26.3% from beyond the arc. Couple that with a season-high 30.6% turnover percentage and it's a recipe for a whole lot of bad. Duke's defense has to come out with the kind of fire and disruption we've seen it have because holding Virginia's offense in check will be the way. Maybe force Virginia into some turnovers and get some easy baskets on the other end, or just make every shot difficult. That's how Duke will get back on track, and there's really not another obvious route right now.
NAMES TO KNOW
Dereck Lively. The 7-foot freshman is still rounding into form this year, but even when he doesn't pile up a ton of points, he makes his impact known. Lively made every shot Armando Bacot took difficult in the win over UNC, and his 14 rebounds and eight blocks were dominant in spite of the four points scored. He tied his season high with 11 in the loss to Miami, though, and did it on 5 of 6 shooting. He has 20 blocks in the last four games alone and at least three in every single one, and he's largely done it while avoiding foul trouble. If he can change the game defensively for Duke just like he did during the UNC game, he'll give the Blue Devils a great chance. But if he's a non-factor, Duke will struggle.
Jayden Gardner. What's better than a North Carolina facing a team from in-state? Well, Virginia's ECU transfer is the Cavaliers' second leading scorer at 11.5 points per game and the leading rebounder with 5.1. And he's doing it while shooting 51.8% from the field. He's grab at nabbing steals and will be aggressive on that end with Duke for sure, and he's also drawing fouls very well. But he and the rest of UVa's bigs will have their hands full with Duke's talented frontcourt and will have to stay out of foul trouble. It's worth mentioning that Gardner also averaged 16.5 points in two Duke games last year on 15 of 33 shooting. At 6-foot-6, he will quite literally be outsized but Duke can't let him get going.
NARRATIVES
Duke Win:
Duke Loss:
Virginia Win:
Virginia Loss:
PREDICTION
Duke, 72-68. I can't explain why other than Duke does seem to enjoy playing there over the years.
