Brownlow: New friends for Duke, UNC, old foe for NC State in this week's bowl games

By Lauren Brownlow, WRALSportsFan columnist/reporter

Bowl season is here in the ACC! Well, it's been here for awhile. But not yet in the Triangle. Two teams will be facing an opponent for the first time, while the other will see an old ACC foe. Duke will kick things off (well, maybe not literally; depends on the coin toss) on Wednesday against UCF for the first time ever, while that night at 8pm, UNC will take on Oregon for the first-ever meeting between those two. Then on Friday, NC State will face an old friend (or enemy, if you'd rather) in former ACC foe Maryland. Which Triangle teams will end the season on a good note? How will opt-outs and the transfer portal play roles? Let's find out!

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 28

MILITARY BOWL: DUKE (8-4) VS. UCF (9-4)

Time: 2 p.m.
TV: ESPN

THE BASICS

This bowl is presented by Peraton, which according to them "drives missions of consequence spanning the globe and extending to the farthest reaches of the galaxy." Well then! Duke's first-ever matchup with UCF won't really impact the galaxy, but it's a big deal the Blue Devils are even here. And yet it would feel like a bit of a missed opportunity if the Blue Devils can't manage to add one more win to the slate at the end of the year, especially with the state Central Florida is in. They're down their leading receiver and a starting linebacker and cornerback. And they're down their No. 2 quarterback and ... potentially their No. 1? We'll get to that later. Oh, and they're down their offensive coordinator as UNC poached him after Phil Longo left. But Duke's only missing players due to transfer portal were not starters, and they should be able to go full-out in this game. It's clear they're committed to it, and they'll need to be.

As good as Duke's offense was this year, UCF's actually finished every so slightly higher in yards per play (6.28 to 6.2). Duke had the slight edge defensively (5.6 yards per play to 5.7 for UCF), but the only offense Duke has faced that ranked higher in yards per play was UNC's and they put up 7.2 yards per play. A lot will depend on the health of UCF"s starting QB, of course, but

Duke does have a very favorable matchup when it comes to running the football. Duke was 1-4 this season when allowing 120 or more yards on the ground and 7-0 when it held opponents below that. But UCF relied heavily on running the ball this year and ran for at least 100 yards in all but one game. The Knights were tied for 15th nationally with 5.3 yards per rush. UCF was 0-3 when it rushed for fewer than 150 yards, though, and Duke's going to have to really hold the line when it comes to the run game since regardless of the QB situation, UCF is going to lean on its ground game.

UCF, though, wasn't as good at run defense and allowed 4.54 per rush (98th nationally). UCF didn't end the year well on that front either; after allowing over 200 yards rushing just once in its first 10 games, it allowed 248 or more in its final three games, losing two of the three. Duke was 29th nationally in rushing offense, though, averaging just under 5 yards per rush. And UCF's rushing defense was, um, not great, allowing 4.5 per carry, 78th nationally. Duke hit 116 yards or more in all but one game this year and lost the lone game it failed to reach that mark. But Duke's win/loss record was always far more dependent on what its rushing defense allowed. Even if UCF's QB1 is healthy, UCF is going to run the football. A lot. Duke will have to figure out a way to stop it to win this one.

PS, I do not care about the winner of this poll. I've been to both cities plenty of times and I've never heard or seen Orlando referred to as "The City Beautiful." And how in the world is that a better nickname than "Bull City"?

Maybe Elon Musk was right about the bots after all. This poll feels fraudulent.

THIS GUY

Riley Leonard. What a special season he's had for Duke, and it's been fun watching him get better and better each year. He led Duke in rushing with 636 yards and passed for 2,794, averaging 7.2 yards every time he touched the ball. He averaged 7.7 yards per pass attempt, passing for 20 touchdowns to just six picks and he never had more than one interception in a game. After a bit of a slower mid-season stretch — six touchdowns in six games from the Kansas game through Boston College — he had nine touchdowns and two picks down the stretch, getting his yards per attempt back where they were in the first few games of the season. He wasn't running it as well by the end of the season, going for 59 yards on 23 carries in the last three games after running for 577 on 91 attempts in the first nine, but as long as he can remain a rushing threat in this one and be on target as a passer, Duke should be fine.

HERE'S A GUY

John Rhys Plumlee. I hate to pick a player who may not even play, but he's really that important to what UCF does that it's worth it. He led UCF in rushing yards this year with 841 and averaged a pretty darned solid 5.8 per carry with 11 rushing touchdowns. Dual-threat quarterbacks are tricky for anyone to defend, but if his hamstring is healthy enough for him to play, it's going to be far more difficult for Duke to slow down UCF's offense. Rhys Plumlee has already announced he'll be back next year, but he couldn't finish the AAC title game with the injury and it's been a struggle to heal it during the season. He wasn't quite as prolific of a passer as a runner, but he completed 63.1% of his passes and threw for 14 touchdowns and seven picks. Considering UCF's No. 2 QB is in the transfer portal, safe to say that Rhys Plumlee's status will be a big deal. With all of the good things Plumlees have brought Duke over the years, this could end up being the rare exception if Duke can't contain him (and if he plays).

GIFS

Duke Win:

Duke Loss:

PREDICTION

Duke, 31-23. I think the Blue Devils just have more in the tank right now and Mike Elko and company carry the momentum into 2023.

HOLIDAY BOWL: NORTH CAROLINA (9-4) VS. NO. 15 OREGON (9-3)

Time: 8 p.m.
TV: FOX

THE BASICS

Last year, the Holiday Bowl wasn't even played, sadly for NC State. That was because of COVID, which evidently no longer exists! (It does.) This year, their in-state rivals will play the bowl game and it will almost certainly be played. The Tar Heels had a strange season filled with ups and downs. But at least they will get rewarded by playing in one of the nicest bowl destinations in the country while the rest of us freeze.

UNC will be without the vast majority of its defensive backfield, so its pass defense should look ... pretty much like it did all year, amirite? Folks! Rimshot! I'll be here all week! I'm sorry. The obvious assumption here is that UNC's defense will be terrible, and maybe somehow worse than usual, right?

After playing in just three of UNC's first six games, Lejond Cavazos — who will start in place of Storm Duck — had eight of his 15 tackles on the season in the final two games and played in each of the last seven games. Marcus Allen, who should start in place of Tony Grimes, had seven of his eight tackles in the final three games. More importantly than stats alone, though, neither seemed to be a visible downgrade when they got into the game more and more.

And there are signs as the season ended that Carolina's defense progressed from awful to just plain bad. In four of UNC's first six games, the Tar Heels allowed at least 6.6 yards per play and two over 7.0. In the last seven games, they allowed 6.6 or more twice and the highest yards per play they allowed was 6.8. This is ... the smallest of victories, and I'm not saying UNC's defense became *good* or even *average*. All I'm trying to say is that as some of the reserves got more playing time in that stretch of games, UNC's defense did not really seem to drop off. And so other than being super thin at cornerback, I don't know that missing those guys will be as much of an issue as people think. Bad is going to be bad, regardless.

The one bad taste of course was the performance of the defense against a sputtering Clemson offense once Cade Klubnik came in as they allowed him to complete 80% of his passes, the highest percentage of any quarterback against UNC. And if it's true that UNC did not prep for him in any real way, it's both A. Not great! And B. would explain a lot.

The thing is, Oregon's offense is 8th in the country in yards per play. The only other top-25 offense UNC has faced all year was Appalachian State and, uh, we all remember how that went, right? Yes, I know UNC won. But Oregon is not App State. And the Ducks are incredibly balanced, ranking 12th nationally in yards per carry on the ground and 10th in yards per pass attempt. They can beat you any way you'd like. Would having those extra players have helped UNC all that much? Probably not! So the best the Tar Heels can hope for is that the new faces that see action will be more promising than the ones we've already seen.

Oregon is missing two defensive starters in linebacker Noah Sewell and cornerback Christian Gonzalez, but those are really the only two players of consequence who won't play for the Ducks. Still, like the majority of UNC's season, the Tar Heels will have to have the offense carry the load. And there is good news on that front: Oregon's defense is 100th nationally, allowing 5.89 yards per play. UNC's is worse, obviously (115th, 6.1) but it's not an enormous difference. And in the month of November alone, UNC's defense actually ranked higher in yards per play (75th) than Oregon's (91st). So it's going to come down to which offense can score more points, not which defense stops anyone. And Carolina's offensive struggles down the stretch are a concern, especially without leading receiver Josh Downs. Can Drake Maye pull a rabbit out of his hat and make some magic?

The offense will be without coordinator Phil Longo, and it hit 6.1 yards per carry in its first eight games before falling below that mark four times in its final five, including falling below four once (3.94 against NC State, its lowest of the year) and below 5 twice. The defenses were of a better quality than Oregon's, obviously. But the offense had started to looked shaky as the season wound down and the red-zone offense was bad. If it doesn't improve significantly, UNC will have no chance.

THIS GUY

Drake Maye. The phenom redshirt freshman had an obviously hot start to the year. For all the talk about the schedule he faced, he put up numbers against absolutely everyone, averaging at least 7.9 yards per attempt in 10 of UNC's first 13 games. He did it against four top 48 pass defenses, too. After the win over Wake Forest, he had 34 passing touchdowns to three interceptions and his lowest yards per attempt was 7.9 against a top-25 defense. He was averaging 341.2 passing yards per game. And yes, two of his three final games came against excellent pass defenses, including NC State's, which was the best he'd faced to that point. But Georgia Tech's ranked 56th. He's been in a downward spiral starting and including that game, passing for just one touchdown to four picks in the final four games and averaging 5.8 yards per attempt in that stretch. He also ran for at least 50 yards in seven of UNC's first 10 games and got a total of 69 yards on 39 attempts in the final three.

Yes, better defenses played a role in Maye's struggles, and this will be the second-worst FBS defense UNC has seen all year. But Maye is now going to have to carry the entire team on his back in his first game without his offensive coordinator *AND* down his leading receiver in Josh Downs. It feels like a big ask. But if at least he performs well in this game, even if UNC were to lose, it would take the bad taste out of the mouths of a lot of fans heading into next season. I doubt it'll matter much to him if it's not a win, but still.

HERE'S A GUY

Bo Nix. A big thing these two quarterbacks have in common is being Heisman candidates at one point in the season, only to have some key missteps down the stretch that doomed their chances. Nix's season-long numbers are fantastic: he completed 71.5% of his passes for 8.9 yards per attempt, 27 touchdowns and six interceptions. And he was Oregon's third-leading rusher, averaging 6.0 per rush and scoring 14 touchdowns on the ground. He doesn't have to run a lot, but when he does, he's good at it.

Unlike Maye, though, his passing numbers didn't dip all that much at the end of the year. Unless you call completion percentages of 67.9% and one of 65.9% a dip. His yards per attempt were still pretty high. But his rushing numbers took a big hit as he totaled -8 yards on five attempts in the final two games alone, the first time he'd had fewer than 16 yards in any game this season and just the second and third time he'd had three attempts or fewer.

His numbers don't tell his full story, though. The former Auburn quarterback has been unique throughout his career in his ability to tantalize and confound the viewers, sometimes from play to play. He could go from a spectacular pass to a bone-headed mistake in the drop of a hat. It's perhaps most analogous to UNC basketball's Caleb Love experience. You've got to ride the roller-coaster, even though at times you feel like you might die, and not in a wee fun roller-coaster way. But it will be interesting to see if that up-and-down type of game continues against what I'm sure is one of the worst pass defenses he has seen in his career. Carolina will absolutely take miscues to stay in and potentially win this game, and more likely than not Nix will have a few.

GIFS

North Carolina Win:

North Carolina Loss:

PREDICTION

Oregon, 51-38. I mean, how does UNC get enough stops? I just don't see it.

DUKE'S MAYO BOWL: NO. 23 NC STATE (8-4) VS. MARYLAND (7-5)

Time: 12 p.m.
TV: ESPN

THE BASICS

When it comes to the Duke's Mayo Bowl, there's really only one thing to watch: will the winning coach agree to a mayonnaise bath?

YES!

Okay, so there's more than *one* thing to watch.

Maryland's offense ranked 53rd in yards per play, but fell drastically to 122nd in the month of November alone with two top-10 teams on the schedule. NC State's offense was 113th in yards per play and 112th in November alone, so basically the same. But Maryland put up a paltry 2.95 per play against Wisconsin and 2.23 against Penn State before getting it together in time to put up 5.91 against Ohio State in a surprisingly close loss and 5.83 in a dominating win over Rutgers to end the season.

But ... this is probably the Triangle bowl game opponent that has the most impactful players sitting out. Three of Maryland's top five pass-catchers and four of its top eight will miss the game. And Maryland's pass-catchers have been excellent this year. Eight players have at least 19 catches, and all but one of those players have averaged at least 10.5 yards per catch. And leading receiver Jeshaun Jones will still be out there. But for an offense that relies more on its passing attack than the run game, it's not great. And NC State's defense has been excellent against both.

So the real question for the Wolfpack will be this: without offensive coordinator Tim Beck and with the playcalling-by-committee approach, will the offense be aggressive enough to win? It's a balancing act to be sure; Maryland's offense wasn't exactly dominant (it was good, though). The defense, though, is 28th nationally in yards per play allowed. And NC State was 1-3 this season against the top 31 defenses in the country with all three of the losses coming by double digits. NC State had one double-digit win against an FBS defense in the top 80.

Maryland is missing two defensive starters, so that should have some impact. But NC State hasn't won a bowl game since 2017. Will it make or break this season? No, but a game against a former ACC rival and a very winnable game at that would be a great way to go into next season for Dave Doeren and company.

THIS GUY

Ben Finley/M.J. Morris. We don't know who the starter will be, but we know it will be one of those two. In just two games, Ben Finley put up over 200 more yards than Jack Chambers did in nine, completing 43 of 75 passes for 472 yards and three touchdowns. The bulk of his good work was done against UNC's horrendous secondary, though, when he passed for 271 yards and averaged 6.8 per attempt, throwing for two touchdowns and no picks.

Freshman M.J. Morris, before his injury, was likely the more promising option going into next year. But make no mistake — it looks to be those two battling for the starting job, and should Morris be healthy enough to play, he's the front-runner. NC State went 2-1 in Morris' three games with the most action, and other than struggling against Boston College before his injury, he performed very well. In the two wins, he completed 38 of 57 passes for 475 yards and six touchdowns to no picks. He also ran for 55 yards in those two games, an element Finley doesn't really offer. NC State will be down a few wide receivers, though, and this will be the best defense either of them have seen. But they're fighting for a starting job, and whichever one gets the start will take it incredibly seriously, knowing it's an audition of sorts.

Maryland and NC State are tied at 18 in yards per pass attempt allowed (6.3) and neither one's defense should be too heavily impacted by transfers or opt-outs. How the quarterback performs, whomever that is (and the staff is being tight-lipped about it), will play a huge role in how this game goes for the Wolfpack.

HERE'S A GUY

Taulia Tagovailoa. If that name sounds familiar, it's because yes, he's the younger brother of former Alabama and current Miami Dolphins quarterback Tu'a. And he had a really good season for Maryland, completing nearly 69% of his passes and averaging nearly 8 yards per attempt, throwing for 17 touchdowns to six interceptions. He also ran for four more, although he averaged less than a yard per carry. He, like the rest of the offense, struggled in those losses to Penn State and Wisconsin, passing for just 151 yards and one touchdown to one pick combined in the two games. But he bounced back well after that and averaged 317.5 in the final two games with three touchdowns to no interceptions. Maryland's offense has been a dynamic and dangerous one all year in spite of some slumps, and all it will take is a lapse here or there by NC State's defense for Tagovailoa to burn them and have them playing from behind.

GIFS

NC State Win:

NC State Loss:

PREDICTION

NC State, 20-17. All NC State's games have been close, so this one should be too, right?