Brownlow: Opportunity knocks for improving UNC

By Lauren Brownlow, WRALSportsFan columnist/reporter

Remember when I (and others, to be fair) told you a week ago that now was not the time to panic about UNC basketball?

Well, here we sit with the Tar Heels on a two-game winning streak, and a chance to make it three — and get their first Quadrant 1 win in the process — on Saturday at Madison Square Garden against No. 23 Ohio State.

Context is important here, of course: that streak has come against two of the worst teams on UNC's schedule to date, Georgia Tech and the Citadel.

But the way UNC won those games? Especially compared to the way they'd won most of their first five? That matters.

Style points may not count that much in NET rankings, but they do in evaluating how a team is playing. In hindsight, looking at UNC's start to the season it was easy to see a skid coming. The largest margin of victory was 16 points, twice.

UNC had narrow wins over Gardner-Webb and Portland. The highest Ken Pomeroy-ranked team it faced was James Madison (No. 76), and weirdly, that was tied for their largest margin of victory as well.

The biggest issues for the Tar Heels have been shooting and assists, of which there is a definite correlation. But their defense has also been a bit ... up and down. It's actually kind of odd that UNC is undefeated when it holds teams to below 100 in offensive efficiency and 2-4 when it does not, because 100 is not that high of a bar to clear. But in all of those games, they've allowed their opponent to outdo them in that category.

In its last two games, though? UNC has had two of its top four defensive efficiency performances of the year and has held its opponents to below 50% in effective field goal percentage (eFG%), something it had failed to do at any point during its losing streak.

The Tar Heels also had two of their five best defensive rebounding percentages in the last two games, including its top performance of the season against Georgia Tech (just 3.1%, which I'm reasonably confident you could surpass by sheer chance if you wanted to, but nevertheless). UNC is 5-0 this season when its opponents rebound less than 25% of their missed shots and 2-4 when it's 25% or higher.

And while opponents getting to the foul line hasn't been a huge issue this season, UNC has had some of its best defensive performances while also avoiding fouls as UNC held the Citadel and Georgia Tech to two of the three lowest free-throw rates it has allowed all year.

Oh, and offense! UNC's offense, in spite of its struggles through part of last year and a lot of this year so far, finished last season ranked 18th in the country and ranks 9th in the country now. UNC's eFG% is overall down slightly, and its assist percentage is down a lot (from 54.1% to 45.2%), but its free-throw rate is significantly higher (43.9 to 30.3) and its turnover rate is better, dropping from 16.4% to 15.7 percent.

Where a lot of the hand-wringing comes from is UNC's 3-point percentage, which has dropped from 35.8% to 31.5% in spite of a lot of the same players returning (although to be fair, Brady Manek was a big force in inflating that number). UNC's 2-point percentage has gone up from 50.1% last year to 53%, so that's not the worst thing either.

Last season, UNC got over the 100 mark in offensive efficiency in 28 out of 39 games and over 110 in 20 (UNC went 20-0 in those games, by the way, and 26-2 when over 100). This year through its first nine games, UNC had cracked the 110 mark twice. But after the last two games, it has done it twice more. putting up its second- and fourth-most efficient performances of the season.

By the way? Carolina only had three wins when under 100 in offensive efficiency last year, and two came in February and March, against good teams (Virginia and Virginia Tech). From February 19 on, UNC went 11-2 and posted a top-7 offensive performance against their opponent eight times. They'd done it 10 times in their first 26 games, and plenty of those were against overmatched opponents.

Shooting has been an issue all year for UNC, but Carolina has now posted an eFG% of at least 50% for three straight games, their longest streak of the season. The Tar Heels eclipsed that mark just three times in its first nine games.

Offensive rebounding was a staple under Roy Williams, but hasn't been as much in the Hubert Davis era so far. But Carolina also had two of its best performances all season on the offensive glass in the last two games. Overall, their offensive rebounding percentage is down slightly from last year, but if UNC can keep that improvement trending upward it will help.

The 3-point shooting remains a concern, although UNC had its second-best performance from 3 against the Citadel and set a new season high for 3s made (15 of 31, 48.4%)

A big reason for the improvement in shooting? UNC is getting more assists. Ken Pom's stats date back to 1997, which was Dean Smith's final year as head coach. In that stretch of time, no UNC team had ever had a percentage of assisted field goals lower than 50%, and the lowest in that stretch was (somewhat weirdly) the 2008 Final Four team under Roy Williams. And even that was 51.9%, so still over half.

Last season under Hubert Davis was UNC's lowest assist rate since then, but that obviously improved enormously as the Tar Heels' play did and it still ranked 87th in the country (54.1%).

This year, though? Even with improvement in that area in the last two games, UNC's assist rate is 45.2%, which ranked 303rd nationally. That's ... bad.

From the start of the season through the end of the four-game losing streak, UNC had played nine games and its opponents had higher assist rates in six of them. UNC did improve its ball movement for a time after starting the season under 50% in its first three games, putting together a three-game streak of 51.9% or higher assisted field goals — but that ended with the Iowa State loss, which began the skid. In losses to Alabama, Indiana and Virginia Tech, UNC's assist rates were 39.5%, 25% and 25% yet again.

But in the last two games? UNC's assist rate has been at least 10 percentage points higher than its opponent, and UNC has one more assist in its last two games alone than it did its entire four-game skid. The assist rate during the skid was 36.5 and its jumped to 66.1% over its last two, which is better than any individual game UNC had before then.

Carolina basketball has always prided itself on not only its ability to get a lot of assisted field goals through effective passing, but also by having a good assist/turnover ratio. UNC had more assists than turnovers in just three of its first nine games.

UNC has now not only had a positive assist-turnover ratio for the last two games, but it's been VERY positive, including a season-best 2.0 ratio against the Citadel (24 assists to 12 turnovers). Yes, the opponent caveat is there as that's the worst team UNC has faced all year, but UNC also registered just four assists to nine turnovers against UNC-Wilmington and eight assists to 10 turnovers against Gardner-Webb.

Even in UNC's five-game winning streak to start the year, their assist/turnover ratio was 1.13, and it averaged just 11 assists per game. But in the four-game losing streak, it got worse: UNC's rate was 0.73 to 1.34 for its opponents, and UNC averaged just 9.5 assists. Some teams with great 1-on-1 scorers or with an offense designed around it can perhaps get by that way, but most teams can't, especially at the collegiate level. UNC's stars were trying to do it all themselves, to fix it alone. It won't work on most levels of college basketball and it didn't work.

But in the last two games, UNC's ratio was 1.52 to 0.96 for its opponents, and while it's not perfect, it's where you want to be. You certainly don't want to couple a lack of assists with turning the ball over more times, no matter how few assists you have. Basically all that says to me (and it was clear during UNC's skid and before) is that you're going to have to create baskets 1-on-1, and every turnover you have is a chance your opponents can take it back for an easy basket. So the lack of assists has essentially offset the fact that UNC ranks 24th in the country in lowest offensive turnover percentage (15.7% of its possessions).

And it's even better that UNC has held two straight opponents to below 50% assist rate for the first time since its first two games of the season. Holding opponents to a 50% or less in those early games helped UNC win ugly at times, even when it wasn't getting assists. But when their opponents started racking them up, starting with Portland in a narrow UNC win, that was going to make things even harder.

Ohio State presents Quad 1 challenge for UNC

UNC's schedule has also bolstered it in terms of its NCAA Tournament hopes, although their problem right now is the same one they had last year until early March — no Quadrant 1 wins. Ohio State is a great opportunity, should the Tar Heels be up for the challenge.

The Buckeyes have had one familiar opponent locally in Duke, and while the Blue Devils ultimately won by 9 at home, Ohio State did not make it easy.

Four of Ohio State's wins have come against teams ranked 261st or worse in Ken Pom, but they also have a 28-point win over Wes Miller's solid Cincinnati team on a neutral court and a win over Texas Tech, which is 7-2. Their two losses are to teams in the top 27 on Ken Pom: one by 11 on a neutral court to San Diego State, and the other to Duke.

Since that Duke game on Nov. 30, Ohio State has played twice, getting a blowout win over No. 343 St. Francis and a one-point win over a pretty good Rutgers team.

The biggest challenge UNC will have to overcome is Ohio State's excellent offense. The Buckeyes have had an eFG% below 50% just twice all year, and its lowest was still a pretty solid 47.4 percent. They also rebound their misses at a rate more comparable to UNC under Roy Williams, retrieving 50% or more of its misses twice and at least 36% in all but two games.

If there's a flaw in Ohio State's offense, it can be a little turnover-prone. The Buckeyes have turned it over on 20% or more of their possessions five times in nine games. And yet Ohio State has posted the best or second-best offensive performance against five of its nine opponents so far.

The Buckeyes have managed to be an excellent rebounding team in spite of lacking a lot of traditional size. The tallest rotational player they have is 6-8 junior Zed Key. But Key is the ... key (I'm sorry) to their rebounding, ranking ninth nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. Averaging a team-high 14.3 points and 8.7 rebounds, Key has added a block and an assist per game. Key also shoots over 70% from the field.

Justice Sueing (a top 5 name in college basketball), who only played in two games last year before an injury cut his season short, has been a big part of the Buckeyes as well. At his best for the Buckeyes in the 2020-21 season, he played all over the court from point guard to forward. Now, on a team without as much height, he's been called upon to play down low more. He's drawn fouls (and made free throws) at a high rate, but his shooting hasn't been what the Buckeyes would want — just under 41 percent.

Ohio State does have other good shooters from 3, though. Four Buckeyes have hit at least 14 3-pointers and two of them shoot 46.7% or better from 3. West Virginia transfer shooting guard Sean McNeil is second on the team in made 3s but shoots 35.7% from 3.

Freshman point guard Bruce Thornton has had to carry this team, and he's done a pretty good job. He doesn't shoot quite as much as some of his teammates, but when he does, it goes in — 51.5% from 2 and 46.7% from 3. Thornton's assist to turnover ratio hasn't been great, but he's leading the team in percentage of available minutes played (72.7%), and it's only gone up since Isaac Likekele took a leave of absence from the team. When he's been on, the Buckeyes generally win. But like with most freshmen, that swings from game to game. He's played at least 36 minutes in three of the last four games after maxing out at 26 minutes in the first five games.

This talented freshman class was always meant to carry this team, which is why many thought this would be a transition year for the Buckeyes. Instead, the transfers and veterans have filled important gaps, and both Thornton and fellow freshman Brice Sensabaugh have shined at times. Sensabaugh has done so a bit more often than Thornton, scoring in double figures in all but one game (the Duke loss, where he fouled out in 14 minutes) and shooting 50% or better from 3 in six of Ohio State's last seven games.

The 6-6 power forward is just slightly trailing Key in points per game at 14.1 in just 19.2 minutes. He averages just 3.2 rebounds, but his shooting and scoring have more than made up for it. He leads the team in 3-point percentage (50%) and shoots 83.3% from the foul line, which is good because he gets there a ton, drawing 5.7 fouls per game.

Ken Pom projects this matchup as a 1-point Ohio State win. It will be a game Carolina can absolutely win, but it will have to carry over its improved play and take it to an even higher level. Ohio State is just okay defensively, so UNC will have to execute on the offensive end the way that it has been.

But Ohio State does a lot of the things well on the offensive end that have been an issue for UNC. The Tar Heels are 1-3 when an opponent shoots over 35% from 3 and 2-4 when opponents rebound over 25% of their misses, which is an easy threshold to clear for Ohio State. (Weirdly, UNC won the two games it allowed the highest offensive rebounding percentages of the season and the No. 3 performance was the multiple-overtime loss to Alabama.) And remember how UNC is 2-4 when it allows an eFG% of 50% or better? Well, Ohio State has only been below 50% twice.

If UNC wants to be an upper-tier team this year and carry over last year's progress, this game will be a big indicator of which way it could go. There will be some Quadrant 1 opportunities in ACC play, but far more in Quadrant 3 or 4, which hurts you either way.

The Tar Heels won't get many more of these opportunities, and they'll have to take advantage on Saturday.